Mountain West Discussion

[Mercurial]

Also, -sn and about 1" so far here at my mother's house in Helena on Christmas day, on top of the 6" she already had.  

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I need to move to Montana.

[Kayla]

Light snow began here in the early morning and continues this Christmas morning! Looks like about 2" of new snow so far.

 

Very cold out there today...currently only 5F which will likely be my high on the day. Gotta love 40:1 snow ratios!

[Black Hole]

We have a white Christmas in SLC this morning. I got 4.6" overnight, and with the snow that was already there its about 6.5" deep. Finally feels like winter!

[Kayla]

Yet another chilly day yesterday with snowfall. High of only 6F with a low of 0F and 4" of snowfall. Low this morning was -6F and still only up to -2F this late morning.

 

Was looking over December snowfall records and it looks like Bozeman MSU is really close to breaking the all-time snowfall record for the month. Record is 38" set back in 2008 and as of yesterday they were already at 33.1". Nothing was recorded yesterday but looks like reports were in the 3-4" range which would bring them right up to the record. More snowfall is expected this week, especially by late week so it will be interesting to see how high they go!

 

I'm already at 51" of snowfall on the month but I honestly have no idea where that stacks up climatology speaking since it's my first year here and there are no snowfall records for the area.

[Kayla]

Beautiful, cold morning in what looks like to be a blue bird type of day!

 

http://i63.tinypic.com/2vb367n.jpghttp://i68.tinypic.com/4u6vqe.jpg

[wx_statman]

-27 this morning in Cut Bank. The high yesterday in Glasgow was -15, just missing the daily record low/max of -18 from 1996. 

[Mercurial]

-27 this morning in Cut Bank. The high yesterday in Glasgow was -15, just missing the daily record low/max of -18 from 1996. 

 

 

(I know that statistically Cut Bank's avg temperature is not even close to being the coldest spot in either MT or the nation, but eh who's counting...)

[Mercurial]

Nice weenie graphic by NWS Billings.

 

 

I remember Christmas of 96.  HEH... Kalispell had five feet of snow on the ground that Christmas.  That entire winter was unreal.  

[Kayla]

Nice weenie graphic by NWS Billings.

 

 

I remember Christmas of 96.  HEH... Kalispell had five feet of snow on the ground that Christmas.  That entire winter was unreal.  

 

The models are still really struggling with what to do with this upcoming pattern which is a bit frustrating. No doubt someone is going to get buried within that "battleground" area. Been a common theme this season as we continue to get a lot of NW flow with moisture streaming in and stalled fronts.

[Kayla]

Looking like Missoula could be one of the big winners with this series of storms now. GFS/ECMWF/GEM all show at least 15" of snowfall for them. 12z GFS goes even crazier with nearly 30" (Kuchera ratio) by Sunday!

 

Really awesome setup from a meteorological standpoint. Atmospheric river type moisture feeding in against an Arctic front stalled out over the Divide. Battle zone is obviously drawn right along those two air masses. Couldn't draw it up any better really. 

[Mercurial]

The models are still really struggling with what to do with this upcoming pattern which is a bit frustrating. No doubt someone is going to get buried within that "battleground" area. Been a common theme this season as we continue to get a lot of NW flow with moisture streaming in and stalled fronts.

 

Yep bust potential seems quite high... NWS Missoula seems super bullish tho, we'll see.  Arctic airmasses around here have a tendency to get 'stuck in' in the high terrain of GNP and the Bob and therefore can wind up delayed by 12 or more hours.

[Mercurial]

Lol @ the bolded, from this morning's AFD.

 

 

 

As if the forecast hadn`t been complicated enough to this point,

what happens late Friday afternoon into Saturday has potential to
be one of the more impressive snow events in recent memory.
Models consistently paint the most robust plume of Pacific
moisture moving across the area at this time. Meanwhile, an
impressively deep and extremely cold arctic air mass will begin
to wedge its way across the Continental Divide. What occurs next
will be both meteorologically beautiful, but also likely quite
crippling, for many areas as a full on collision of these
distinctly different air masses happens across parts of West
Central and Northwest Montana (generally north of I-90). The
persistent pummeling of very intense heavy snow and in some
places, stark blowing and drifting of snow due to low level arctic
winds, could make travel extremely difficult, if not impossible,
overnight Friday night into Saturday morning.

There are several forecast tools which indicate this will be a
very impressive and potentially record setting snowfall event. One
of these, the Short Range Ensemble Forecast (SREF), shows high
probabilities of greater than 8 inches of snow and perhaps some
areas seeing over a foot of new snow along and north of I-90
between mid day Friday and Saturday morning. This model, being a
collection of various model members, tends to play along the
middle of the road. But still, it`s quite impressive that the SREF
would give a mean/average storm total this week in Missoula of
around 14 inches & nearly 20 inches in Kalispell with 7 inches and
11 inches respectively falling during the heaviest period from
Friday afternoon through Saturday morning!

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=mso&product=AFD&format=CI&glossary=1

[Front Ranger]

Ended up being pretty cold the past few days while I was gone. Highs of just 24, 19, and 10 the past three days at DEN. Looks like my coldest temp at home was -3 on Christmas morning.

[Kayla]

Winter Storm Warning posted for Gallatin County and pretty much the rest of Central Montana beginning tomorrow morning through all of Saturday. NWS is going with 12-18" for Bozeman which I honestly think is a bit overdone at this point. I'm thinking something closer to 8-12" is more realistic at this point. Unless they are thinking the models are overestimating the drying/downsloping like they often do here.

 

Interesting enough, I see the Missoula NWS hasn't pulled the trigger on their Winter Storm Watch but Great Falls NWS sure didn't hesitant with theirs!

 

Either way, yet another big storm is on the way. Friday night into Saturday looks like the main event with very heavy snow expected. Cold air really settles in here on Sunday with below zero readings once again.

[Kayla]

Lol @ the bolded, from this morning's AFD.

 

 

 

 

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=mso&product=AFD&format=CI&glossary=1

 

Missoula NWS reminds me a bit of the Portland NWS. They definitely seem to "geek" out sometimes with their discussions! Makes it kind of fun but also sometimes slightly wishcasting.

[Black Hole]

I am down in Abilene Texas right now and where I am staying it was just 26F this afternoon, which is colder than any highs in SLC so far lol

Go figure, just go to Texas for cold. 

[Black Hole]

Winter Storm Warning posted for Gallatin County and pretty much the rest of Central Montana beginning tomorrow morning through all of Saturday. NWS is going with 12-18" for Bozeman which I honestly think is a bit overdone at this point. I'm thinking something closer to 8-12" is more realistic at this point. Unless they are thinking the models are overestimating the drying/downsloping like they often do here.

 

Interesting enough, I see the Missoula NWS hasn't pulled the trigger on their Winter Storm Watch but Great Falls NWS sure didn't hesitant with theirs!

 

Either way, yet another big storm is on the way. Friday night into Saturday looks like the main event with very heavy snow expected. Cold air really settles in here on Sunday with below zero readings once again.

This one looks like it could be really big, that is for sure. I will be watching with you so keep us posted with what you see.

[Mercurial]

Super crappy driving conditions in places tonight.  Driving back to WF from Helena tonight, I hit white out (black out?) conditions on 90 between Garrison Jct and Bearmouth.  Pulled over in Missoula for the night.

[Kayla]

Super crappy driving conditions in places tonight.  Driving back to WF from Helena tonight, I hit white out (black out?) conditions on 90 between Garrison Jct and Bearmouth.  Pulled over in Missoula for the night.

 

Yikes. Safe travels back to Whitefish today! Looks like you guys should do really well up there over the next few days.

 

Had about 2" of snow here last night but otherwise things have been pretty calm and mild. Even getting some downsloping winds this morning rising my temp above freezing for the first time in over a week.

 

I'm still not all that impressed with the storm down here. Latest model trends show the PNW low going further north while the front loses its upper level support and falling apart down this way. Will be interesting to see what the ECMWF shows later this morning.

[Mercurial]

Yikes. Safe travels back to Whitefish today! Looks like you guys should do really well up there over the next few days.

 

Had about 2" of snow here last night but otherwise things have been pretty calm and mild. Even getting some downsloping winds this morning rising my temp above freezing for the first time in over a week.

 

I'm still not all that impressed with the storm down here. Latest model trends show the PNW low going further north while the front loses its upper level support and falling apart down this way. Will be interesting to see what the ECMWF shows later this morning.

 

Thanks!  Morning drive turned out easy.  

 

I've heard of reports of 14" already in southern interior BC for areas that were forecasted to be fringed at 2-4".  Anyway, about 4" so far today, has been oscillating between +sn and sn for the last couple hours.  Hopefully an epic powder weekend is incoming.  

[WeatherArchive]

It's been mentioned in the PNW thread that east of the Rockies is trending colder.  It seems Texas is the place to go for cold weather fix despite it's high long heat in the summer you get rewarded from Dallas north.  Makes it worth it to suffer the long summers.

[Kayla]

Impressive Arctic front finally moved through here early this morning. Temp was above freezing all day yesterday and 40F at 4:30am. Front moved through and we are currently down to 12F with moderate snow falling as of 8:30am and still dropping. Definitely a flash freeze scenario out there as the melt was on before the front pushed through.

 

Looks like light to moderate snow should fall for most of the day today with possibly some heavy snow bands moving through later this afternoon and tonight. NWS downgraded snow totals to 4-8" for the Bozeman area which sounds about right. Not sure what they were looking at when they were forecasting 12-18" earlier this week! 

[Mercurial]

Closing in on a foot so far. 

 

heh @ the Montana road conditions map, never seen so many purple dots and other miscellaneous colors

 

https://www.mdt.mt.gov/travinfo/map/mtmap_frame.html

[Mercurial]

Current wind chill is -20.  Heaviest snow of the day right now, just pounding.  

[Kayla]

Current wind chill is -20.  Heaviest snow of the day right now, just pounding.  

 

You guys have been under the gun all day today! That firehose of moisture has been aimed right at NW MT for almost 48 hours and with the Arctic air now overhead snow ratios are through the roof! Really impressive storm up there. Missoula has been getting ZR most of the day so that one is looking like quite the forecast bust. 

 

Storm down this way has been rather unimpressive. Only 2" here today but the snow is starting to pick up a bit again out there. What has been impressive is the cold air. Temps were in the single digits above zero all day and have now dropped below zero. Way below guidance.

[Kayla]

Temperature gradient you won't see very often. 5F at Bozeman Airport and 30F at West Yellowstone and its been like that all day.

[Kayla]

Getting the heaviest snow yet with temps below zero right now. Looks like it's a strong post frontal snow band but unfortunately shouldn't last all that long. 

 

Either way, just absolutely dumping right now and -2F.

[Mercurial]

Temperature gradient you won't see very often. 5F at Bozeman Airport and 30F at West Yellowstone and its been like that all day.

 

Lots of weird temperature gradients around yesterday.  You don't see this every day...

 

https://twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls/status/946927258299707393

 

(Wisdom is normally a total icebox)

[Mercurial]

Crushed in Whitefish

 

[Front Ranger]

Much cooler than forecast today. Was supposed to get up to around 40, but already topped out at 27, now down to 25.

[Kayla]

Ended up with only 3.5" down this way. Obviously far NW Montana were the big winners from this storm. Saw some reports of around 40" up at the Seeley Lake area!

 

I can't complain here though, it's been a great month! 56.2" of snowfall on the month and now up over 100" on the season. Looks like Bozeman MSU will blow away the December snowfall record of 38.0" from 2008. They were already at 43.3" as of 4pm yesterday. Will be interesting to see what they recorded since 4pm yesterday. Could end up being really close (but likely end up just short) to the all-time snowiest month of 46.9" set back in April 2009.

[Kayla]

Bozeman MSU came agonizingly close to breaking their all-time snowiest month. They ended up with 3" of snowfall yesterday bringing the December total to 46.3" of snowfall. Only 0.6" shy of the record! Oh well, maybe next month??

 

Fun fact: The 19" snow depth is the deepest since November of 2009.

[Kayla]

Low of -7F here this morning. Colder than what I was expecting.

 

Currently -4F.

[wx_statman]

-42 in Saco, northeastern Montana, this morning. This follows a reading of -43 on the 27th. Some serious cold out there. Previously, the last -40 reading was during the February 2011 cold wave (also -43). The last reading lower than -43? The big Jan/Feb 1996 cold wave, during which Saco hit -48. 

[Guest happ]

Much cooler than forecast today. Was supposed to get up to around 40, but already topped out at 27, now down to 25.

 

What a difference a day makes!

 

DENVER, CO FLURRIES 16 6 65 N10 30.28R WCI 4  

[Mercurial]

About 14 here.  Balmy

[Mercurial]

OK this weather is boring.

 

In other news, it's been a snowy year in East Glacier and most of Montana.

 

https://twitter.com/NWSGreatFalls/status/948638786807844864

[Front Ranger]

I don't want to jinx it, but it looks like we'll finally get a decent storm here next week with the system moving off the Pacific into CA. Looks juicy, but probably borderline temps for snow.

[Mercurial]

We keep getting wet, heavy snow on top of our powder.  Every inch of new snow seems to weigh our snowpack downward.  Ski resort problems lol :/