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The Weather Channel is showing significant flood potential for Montana due to all the snow melt.

 

Yeah we're under a state of emergency because of the flooding concerns. The Missoula area is getting hit the hardest right now with their rivers starting to hit major flood stage. Things haven't been bad here in Bozeman yet but Helena has also been having some flooding troubles over this past week.

 

All the rain coming this week and weekend sure isn't going to help the cause. Still a ton of snowpack to melt off so we've got a ways to go.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Fake news!

 

Whatever is happening way to your south is the EXACT same thing that is happening there.    If Colorado or New Mexico is in a drought then so is Montana.   This is not negotiable.   ;)

 

What has happened for much of this winter season is that the jet has remained far to the north with copious amounts of rain and snow in places such as Montana, while the Four Corners region and California had below to much below normal precipitation both in rain and mountain snow.

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It's been quite warm this week but that is changing here too with the cut off low dropping in. Should be a lot of rain Friday-Saturday, and continued showers most of next week.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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It's been quite warm this week but that is changing here too with the cut off low dropping in. Should be a lot of rain Friday-Saturday, and continued showers most of next week.

 

Enjoy! Latest models look a bit more promising overall for this side of the mountains, especially Saturday night onward.

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Enjoy! Latest models look a bit more promising overall for this side of the mountains, especially Saturday night onward.

We all need it, but I think your area needs it more, so hopefully it works out. Given how dry most of the winter was, this is good timing to delay the start of fire season.

 

We actually had a pretty good thunderstorm last night so that was fun.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Rain continues up here with all sorts of flood advisories, watches and warnings up. There are even some snow advisories up for today/tonight. Looks like the Clark River over in Missoula is about to reach its highest level since 1908 so major flooding continues over there.

 

Long term forecasts do not show much relief with the EPS mean showing an additional 2.5" of precip in Bozeman over the next 15 days.

 

WeatherStory1.png?1722b448ffd5b3a2092da0

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Love the weather here lately. Scattered storms most days (haven't had much luck right at my house) and nice temperatures. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Been a chilly and wet couple of days up this way. Highs only in the 40's with off and on showers over the past couple of days. Did a run up to Mt Baldy (just above Bozeman) this morning and it was FREEZING with temps in the mid 20's and wind chills in the teens. Looking forward to a little more warmth this upcoming week. Thunderstorms are in the forecast almost every day next week but temps should be warming into the 70's.

 

http://i63.tinypic.com/2j3l36w.jpghttp://i67.tinypic.com/2gum9ol.jpg

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Had a heavy hailstorm Friday afternoon in Boulder. Cloudy all weekend with occasional rain/drizzle. Don't think I've seen the sun once since Thursday!

How much/how big?

 

Lots of thunderstorms in the area the last few days but little luck where I am at. Overall still quite nice though. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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How much/how big?

 

Lots of thunderstorms in the area the last few days but little luck where I am at. Overall still quite nice though. 

 

Only about pea size, but very heavy for about 15-20 minutes. 

 

Enough to accumulate a couple inches on highway 36. This was about 45 minutes after the hail had ended.

 

IMG_20180518_170808048_HDR.jpg

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Fort Collins is getting destroyed by a severe storm right now. Formed just north of here, so completely missed out.

Do they get more severe weather up there than Boulder?

 

We had two rounds of thunderstorms yesterday. Another chance today for more rain. 

 

 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Been a very rainy couple of days here. 0.30" yesterday and already a 0.25" so far today. This May started out on the drier side but it's looking like a very wet second half as this is our 8th consecutive day of measurable precip. 

 

Looks like tomorrow and Friday may bring some drier conditions with a few storms before things pick back up over the weekend into early next week. In fact, the 12z GFS this morning showed an additional 3.5-4" of precipitation over the next 10 days.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Been a very rainy couple of days here. 0.30" yesterday and already a 0.25" so far today. This May started out on the drier side but it's looking like a very wet second half as this is our 8th consecutive day of measurable precip.

 

Looks like tomorrow and Friday may bring some drier conditions with a few storms before things pick back up over the weekend into early next week. In fact, the 12z GFS this morning showed an additional 3.5-4" of precipitation over the next 10 days.

How is the urban sprawl out there? I’ve heard that Bozeman is blowing up lately. They are worried it will start to have an affect on migrating wildlife populations in greater Yellowstone.

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How is the urban sprawl out there? I’ve heard that Bozeman is blowing up lately. They are worried it will start to have an affect on migrating wildlife populations in greater Yellowstone.

 

It's not too bad...yet! They are working hard to keep things within the city limits and are not granting anymore well permits to unclaimed land so that will also help. Of course it's Montana so open space is priority one in all planning.

 

Still seeing plenty of Elk, Eagles, Bears and even the occasional Moose cruising through the city limits during fall migrations. Their main routes (Gallatin, Hyalite, Cottonwood Canyons) from Yellowstone are still wide open through to the lower valleys and their winter habitats. 

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Also nice to see new orders like these still being put into action.

 

http://greateryellowstone.org/blog/2018/2/9/sec-zinke-conserve-elk-deer-pronghorn-migrations

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Do they get more severe weather up there than Boulder?

 

We had two rounds of thunderstorms yesterday. Another chance today for more rain. 

 

 

 

Not that I've noticed. Greeley/Windsor area east of FoCo definitely gets more, though. Just like DIA area gets more than Denver proper or where I live.

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First 90+ weather of the year coming up this weekend for me (DEN saw a 90 on the 10th, but I only hit 87 that day). Looks like 92-94 likely for this area, which is just short of records.

 

Next solid chance of rain/storms may not be until the very end of the month.

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First 90+ weather of the year coming up this weekend for me (DEN saw a 90 on the 10th, but I only hit 87 that day). Looks like 92-94 likely for this area, which is just short of records.

 

Next solid chance of rain/storms may not be until the very end of the month.

87F is the best we have done back in late April. We might get close to 90F tomorrow but I don't think we quite make it, and after that its at least a week before we might have another shot at it.

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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87F is the best we have done back in late April. We might get close to 90F tomorrow but I don't think we quite make it, and after that its at least a week before we might have another shot at it.

 

78F is what I've topped out here also back in late April and 83F at MSU. No 80's let alone 90's here in sight of course. This year you kind of get the sense that we won't see 90+ until July, if that even.

 

1997 was the last year that didn't ever crest 90+ in Bozeman and that year has been a pretty darn good analog for this year so far.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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78F is what I've topped out here also back in late April and 83F at MSU. No 80's let alone 90's here in sight of course. This year you kind of get the sense that we won't see 90+ until July, if that even.

 

1997 was the last year that didn't ever crest 90+ in Bozeman and that year has been a pretty darn good analog for this year so far.

Your cold bias for your area is almost as notable as the strange warm bias you’ve developed for the place you used to live. ;)

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Your cold bias for your area is almost as notable as the strange warm bias you’ve developed for the place you used to live. ;)

 

What would Jesse like me to post today then?? I'd love to see some warmer and drier weather out here but it would be fake news. 

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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I didn't realize that. I figured you had been enjoying the lack of heat.

 

To a certain extent... It was a loooong winter so it would be nice to see things dry out and warm up for longer than a couple of days. Of course I'm not a fan of 100F type heat but some sustainable 75-80's and dry weather would be nice to start to see showing up on the models. No such luck.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Several rounds of thunderstorms today. Even managed some small hail. 

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Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Been a beautiful weekend here with highs in the upper 60's to low 70's and dry skies. Good chance for storms here this afternoon as well but nothing severe. Wednesday is looking like a pretty good chance for severe storms right over my area though.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Under a "slight" risk for severe storms here this afternoon and tomorrow. Not too often that the SPC puts Bozeman in the slight risk category so it will be interesting to see how things fire up today. Biggest threats look to be golf ball size hail and 60+ MPH winds.

 

Really hope we do not see that large of hail as that would cause all sorts of property damage let alone my car that is outside right now...

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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It's been an active month here with more thunderstorms expected today. I haven't had anything severe or really super intense, but certainly a lot of small stuff. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Only 1.48" of rain this month at my place, about 75% of normal, but 13 days with rain and 4 in a row. 

Winter 23-24: Total Snow (3.2")    Total Ice (0.2")     Coldest Low: 1F     Coldest High: 5F

Snow Events: 0.1" Jan 5th, 0.2" Jan 9th, 1.6" Jan 14, 0.2" (ice) Jan 22, 1.3" Feb 12

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Yesterday was a dud but today is looking very active already. Sounds like we'll be put under a Severe Watch shortly and Missoula is currently under a Severe Storm Warning with a very strong cell about to move through there.

 

Latest from the SPC:

 

"Areas affected...Far northeast Nevada...central and eastern
Idaho...far northwest Wyoming...western and southern Montana

Concerning...Severe potential...Severe Thunderstorm Watch likely

Valid 311833Z - 312030Z

Probability of Watch Issuance...80 percent

SUMMARY...Trends for convection are increasing and one or more
Severe Thunderstorm Watches will be likely be needed this afternoon.

DISCUSSION...Large scale lift is currently impinging on regions
experiencing low-level moistening atop modestly steep lapse rates
(6.5-7.5 C/km within a 1-6km layer). The inclusion of diurnal
heating occurring between cloud breaks along with the available
low-level moisture and steepening lapse rates are allowing MUCAPE
values to exceed 1000 J/kg in some locations within the discussion
area. Given effective bulk shear values of 40-50 kts across the
region, updraft organization is possible with any cells that manage
to develop. Relatively straight hodographs suggest that large hail
and perhaps damaging wind gusts will be the primary severe threats.

Latest high resolution guidance suggests that transient supercells
and bowing segments will be the dominant modes of convection, with
convective coverage increasing within the next few hours. As such,
one or more severe thunderstorm watches will likely be needed
sometime this afternoon."

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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Just had nickel size hail roll through with our first storm of the day.

 

Severe Thunderstorm Watch just issued:

 

"URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
Severe Thunderstorm Watch Number 140
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
150 PM MDT Thu May 31 2018

The NWS Storm Prediction Center has issued a

* Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of
Montana

* Effective this Thursday afternoon and evening from 150 PM until
1000 PM MDT.

* Primary threats include...
Scattered large hail and isolated very large hail events to 2
inches in diameter possible
Scattered damaging wind gusts to 70 mph possible
A tornado or two possible

SUMMARY...Strong to severe thunderstorms will continue to develop
this afternoon, initially across western and southern Montana, and
spread east-northeastward through late afternoon and evening. Strong
shear and a very moist environment will support the potential for
large hail and damaging winds.

The severe thunderstorm watch area is approximately along and 80
statute miles north and south of a line from 35 miles northwest of
Butte MT to 25 miles southeast of Miles City MT. For a complete
depiction of the watch see the associated watch outline update"

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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I'm guessing I now belong in this forum. :) Moved to Rupert Idaho just over a month ago. The thunderstorms have been amazing. Yesterday and today have been quite active. Had an amazing cloud pass over Saturday. I was told it was a shelf cloud. Very cool looking! I got an awesome picture but can't figure out how to load it here. I've read how to in the past on the Northwest forum but can't remember. :) Got it loaded on the Fox 12 blog a few days ago though!

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