Mountain West Discussion

[Scott]

Officially 90 right now so we did make it 20s to 90s, as well as tied for the latest 90 degree temperature at the airport.

[Kayla]

Low of 74F at my place with gusty south wind keeping temperatures up. Should be headed for the low 90s today. 

 

74F for a low in September?! That has to be pretty remarkable considering your elevation. 

[Kayla]

38F for a low here this morning and 67F on the top end. Almost identical to yesterday.

 

Some decent showers moving in for tonight with even a few rumbles of thunder.

[gardenmom]

We had a windstorm yesterday that darkened the sky with dust from the fields. I'd rate it up with the high winds of the Columbia Gorge but with a sky filled with dirt. Made for an interesting drive from Twin Falls to Rupert. Temps were very comfortable though. Around 80 before but dropped to mid 70's with the windstorm. First dust storm that I've ever experienced! 

[Black Hole]

74F for a low in September?! That has to be pretty remarkable considering your elevation. 

It didn't hold because it cooled down that evening behind the cold front to 64F. Still, it was pretty impressive! It only reached 90F that afternoon, so a 16F spread. 

[Front Ranger]

It didn't hold because it cooled down that evening behind the cold front to 64F. Still, it was pretty impressive! It only reached 90F that afternoon, so a 16F spread. 

 

I remember a late summer day a few years ago where the temp only barely fell to about 80 overnight because of the winds. But like your day, we had an evening low much cooler.

[Kayla]

Long range ensemble forecasts have been hinting at accumulating snowfall here about 9-10 days from now.

 

The 00z ECMWF operational run last night showed 700mb temps dropping to -10C with over an inch of precip. Plenty cold enough to support sticking snow. In fact, the ECMWF shows 10-14" of snowfall at my location and 8-12" in town. Long way to go but fun to see nonetheless.

[Black Hole]

I remember a late summer day a few years ago where the temp only barely fell to about 80 overnight because of the winds. But like your day, we had an evening low much cooler.

It's hard to maintain temperatures that warm for such a prolonged time. Probably won't have any more nights like that this fall so thats nice. 

[Black Hole]

Long range ensemble forecasts have been hinting at accumulating snowfall here about 9-10 days from now.

 

The 00z ECMWF operational run last night showed 700mb temps dropping to -10C with over an inch of precip. Plenty cold enough to support sticking snow. In fact, the ECMWF shows 10-14" of snowfall at my location and 8-12" in town. Long way to go but fun to see nonetheless.

00z ECMWF was very impressive for your area! That would be quite a storm. 

[Kayla]

00z ECMWF was very impressive for your area! That would be quite a storm. 

 

Looks like the 12z GFS is showing a similar upper level pattern on days 9-10 so the ECMWF might be onto something...

[Scott]

Denver just hit 90 for the 8th day in a row. This is a record for September.

[Kayla]

Models are really struggling now on the pattern change beyond Friday. The 12z Canadian shows about a foot snowfall for Bozeman on Monday/Tuesday verses the 12z ECMWF shows nothing now after yesterdays big snowfall runs.

 

The 12z GFS shows a couple inches of snowfall for Monday/Tuesday then goes bonkers and shows an historic late September snowstorm for most of Montana. Tough call at this point.

 

[Black Hole]

Models are really struggling now on the pattern change beyond Friday. The 12z Canadian shows about a foot snowfall for Bozeman on Monday/Tuesday verses the 12z ECMWF shows nothing now after yesterdays big snowfall runs.

 

The 12z GFS shows a couple inches of snowfall for Monday/Tuesday then goes bonkers and shows an historic late September snowstorm for most of Montana. Tough call at this point.

 

 

Yeah, quite a bit of run-to-run variability. A few runs have even shown a rain/snow mix for me, but most are pretty dry and just a bit too warm for that. 

[Front Ranger]

Denver just hit 90 for the 8th day in a row. This is a record for September.

 

Make it 9. 

 

Hopefully that will be it for the year. And would definitely be nice if the big cool down next week verifies.

[Guest happ]

Make it 9. 

 

Hopefully that will be it for the year. And would definitely be nice if the big cool down next week verifies.

 

That's worst than LA

[Front Ranger]

Really hope the developing ridge next week in western NA can be far enough west to deliver cool temps here. Right now it's close in the models, but we're right on the edge of cool/warm anomalies.

[Black Hole]

No substantial cool anomalies expected here. With todays trough we are down near normal finally but it warms right back up tomorrow.

[Kayla]

Been in the 50's here the last couple of days with some showers. Also finally dropped to freezing for this first time this season ending my growing season right at 100 days.

 

The operational and ensemble models have really taken a turn to much colder for next week. The ECMWF shows highs dropping right back into the 50's beginning on Sunday before the bottom really drops with highs staying below freezing throughout next weekend with snowfall. You have to go all the way back to 1985 since Bozeman saw a high at or below freezing in September.

 

Fun run to look at but is it just more model noise? 

[TT-SEA]

Been in the 50's here the last couple of days with some showers. Also finally dropped to freezing for this first time this season ending my growing season right at 100 days.

 

The operational and ensemble models have really taken a turn to much colder for next week. The ECMWF shows highs dropping right back into the 50's beginning on Sunday before the bottom really drops with highs staying below freezing throughout next weekend with snowfall. You have to go all the way back to 1985 since Bozeman saw a high at or below freezing in September.

 

Fun run to look at but is it just more model noise? 

 

 

The last freeze here was on March 25th.

 

Our growing season currently stands at 180 days... we reached 100 days on July 4th.   

 

The last freeze in Seattle was on February 26th... putting their growing season currently at 207 days.

 

Our garden is still going strong and very productive right now.   My wife could never live in Bozeman!  

[Kayla]

The last freeze here was on March 25th.

 

Our growing season currently stands at 180 days... we reached 100 days on July 4th.   

 

The last freeze in Seattle was on February 26th... putting their growing season currently at 207 days.

 

Our garden is still going strong and very productive right now.   My wife could never live in Bozeman!  

 

Yeah obviously people do not move or live here for their gardens. It's all about the mountains and snow here. 

[TT-SEA]

Yeah obviously people do not move or live here for their gardens. It's all about the mountains and snow here. 

 

According to my wife... we get too much snow here!

[Front Ranger]

Got home just in time for a nice little cool front. Low of 48 this morning, still just a pleasant 61 out.

 

We'll warm back up into the 80s this weekend, but then cool into the 60s/70s next week.

 

No real storms in sight yet, though. 

[Black Hole]

Another 1-2 weeks, or more, of dry weather coming for me too. At least its pleasant now with either no more 90s, or perhaps one last shot this weekend. 

[Scott]

Got home just in time for a nice little cool front. Low of 48 this morning, still just a pleasant 61 out.

 

We'll warm back up into the 80s this weekend, but then cool into the 60s/70s next week.

 

No real storms in sight yet, though.

We spent the night at my parents' house in West Valley. I was really surprised to see frost on the ground this morning. It must be a local cold pocket.

[Scott]

My commute this morning (Trail Ridge, Colorado).

 

 

 

 

[Front Ranger]

Models are again hinting at the possibility of finally getting some active weather here next week. Too bad it's still so far out.

[Kayla]

Chilly fall day here with a 51/33 temp spread. Looks like we warm into the mid 60's by Wednesday before dropping right back down again on Thursday. Currently 40F.

 

Could be a little bit of snow in the air come Friday morning here and especially by late in the weekend into next week. 

[Front Ranger]

Incredible how difficult it's been to get any sort of troughing here the past month. Just .18" at DEN for September.

 

At least today is pleasantly cool and actually feels like fall, with temps still just around 60.

[Black Hole]

A tropical system in the east pacific will get sucked into an advancing trough in about a week. Could see a lot of rain wherever that occurs. Looks to focus in southern California through central Utah, but I may get something in SLC too. 

[Front Ranger]

Low of 39 this AM at my house, coolest of the season so far.

[Scott]

19 at my house this morning.   This is the coldest of the season so far.

[Black Hole]

I hit 43F the other day, which is my lowest up to this point. Been cool the last couple of days.

Still looking at some rain next week, with the ECMWF showing 2.2" at SLC on last nights run. It even had about an inch of snow for me, though I doubt that occurs. 

[Kayla]

Been cool'ish and unsettled here the last few days but nothing too out of the ordinary. Still looking for my first snow of the season here. Though it looks like we have a good shot at some snow tomorrow night into Sunday morning with the ECMWF showing an inch or two.

 

Still quite chilly this morning sitting at 35F currently with some fresh snow in the surrounding hills.

[Front Ranger]

Still just 46 here and it's almost 11. Should be the coolest day of the season so far, and since May.

 

Would be nice to get some precip, though. GFS shows the remnant low from hurricane Rosa going just far enough north early next week to avoid giving us any rain.

[Kayla]

High of only 49F here today under sunny skies during the afternoon.

 

Already down to 32F tonight so likely headed for my first 20's of the season.

[Kayla]

Ended up dropping down to 27F this morning before a low stratus deck formed. 

 

Going to be tough to get much above the low 40's today with the stratus deck overhead now and a clipper moving in. Still looks like I should see an inch or two of snowfall by tomorrow morning.

 

Currently 34F.

[Black Hole]

Still looking at heavy rain on Tuesday, and possibly again at times through Thursday or Friday. ECMWF showing over 3.5", while the GFS seems to be closer to 2". It will be fun to finally have some weather again.

Further ahead ECMWF ens mean has about 1" of snow towards the 10-12th of October. 

[Front Ranger]

First frost this AM with a low of 35.

 

DEN went from 37 at 7 am to 77 at 11 am. With a 20 degree rise from 10 to 11.

[Black Hole]

Flash flood watch in effect for the rains here next week. 

[Scott]

We're going to end with another really warm and dry month (September is usually are wettest month).

 

The average high this month so far is 83.3 degrees, and this month is going to shatter another record for the warmest average high in September.   Our nights have been cool enough though that it won't quite be the warmest September on record.  The diurnal change this month was pretty impressive for an average, even though we didn't have any days at the official weather station with 60+ degree swings.