Mountain West Discussion

[Front Ranger]

Nice to hear the good storm reports. Hopefully this storm overperforms here as well. 

 

Forecast is for a quick 2-4", similar to last storm but a bit cooler.

[Front Ranger]

Would Tim or anyone else mind posting the Euro snow map for this area for the next 24 hours?

[TT-SEA]

Would Tim or anyone else mind posting the Euro snow map for this area for the next 24 hours?

 

[Front Ranger]

Gracias! Looks like 3-4" here, in line with the latest forecasts. 

 

Still a 2-3" snow pack surviving in my yard, despite temps reaching the 50s yesterday. Unless this storm busts, should be able to string together a 2+ week stretch of snow on the ground. Better than any period last winter.

[Black Hole]

5.6" is my final number. Ended a bit sooner than I thought but oh well. Looks great out there. 

[Front Ranger]

Tonight's storm is looking more and more dynamic. Blizzard warning now up for much of the eastern plains. The latest 3km NAM shows heavy banding in this area with some spots seeing 6"+.

[Kayla]

Tonight's storm is looking more and more dynamic. Blizzard warning now up for much of the eastern plains. The latest 3km NAM shows heavy banding in this area with some spots seeing 6"+.

 

Nice! This storm has been quite impressive here so I wouldn't be surprised if it overachieves elsewhere as well. 

 

Still snowing moderately here...looks like about 8-10" of new snow in town now. Will be interesting to see what I end up with when I get back home tonight.

[Front Ranger]

Strong north winds gusting to about 40 mph here. Moderate snow...now let's see where the banding sets up. 

 

Latest models have cut down amounts, but they've really struggled with this storm, so anything from 1"-6" wouldn't surprise me.

[Kayla]

Ended up with 10" of snow yesterday. Looks like Bozeman had 8". Up to 18" on the ground at the house currently.

 

Yet another strong storm is already moving in for tonight into tomorrow with advisories up. I'm expecting another 6-8" in town with 6-10" on my roof. 

 

And it doesn't stop there. More snow to come on Friday and yet again on Sunday/Monday. Running out of places to put it all already!

[Kayla]

Winter Storm Warning is now posted. Amazingly this storm is now looking even stronger than yesterday's storm. Pretty rare to see back to back 8-12"+ snow storms within a day of each other here. Looks like the NWS is going with 7-12" of snow in Bozeman. Probably now looking like 10-15" IMBY.

 

http://i64.tinypic.com/35bgqc8.png

[Front Ranger]

Last night was the first big bust of the year here. Only ended up with maybe .75", hard to tell with the strong winds blowing everything around. Places further south and east did much better with this storm.

 

Looks like our next chance is Wed night and Thursday.

[Kayla]

"Only" ended up with 5" of snow yesterday so a bit of a bust of a storm. We have plenty though so I'm not complaining. Up to a 20" snow base now. Break in the weather is short lived. Expecting 1-3" tomorrow morning.

 

Elk were on the move yesterday and another beautiful morning with a low of 10F.

 

http://i67.tinypic.com/2yo36mb.jpghttp://i68.tinypic.com/21m4zz7.jpg

[Black Hole]

After last nights weak storm it looks dry for a while. Probably a week or more until the next storm. 

[Front Ranger]

Picked up a quick 2" this am here.

[Black Hole]

I find it interesting that my area in particular models almost always overdo precipitation. My general rule is that 7/10 storms the models have too much precip, 2/10 they get it about right, and 1/10 they under do precip. Even in those under estimation situations its rarely significant. 

On the other hand I've seen both of you over the years mention many storms that produced way more than expected. I wonder why that is. 

[Kayla]

Ended up with 2" today bringing my 5 day snowfall total to 20". After such a long dry streak we just completely flipped things around these last 5 days with a very favorable pattern for here.

 

Surprisingly for an El Niño winter, Bozeman's snow cover is now greater than last years snow base at the end of January sitting at 18".

[Black Hole]

It definitely looks cold and perhaps snowy for a lot of the west starting around Feb 3rd or so and onwards. ECMWF EPS especially has a deep and persistent trough signal. 

[gardenmom]

It definitely looks cold and perhaps snowy for a lot of the west starting around Feb 3rd or so and onwards. ECMWF EPS especially has a deep and persistent trough signal. 

Overall it's been a pretty quiet winter here so it'd sure be nice to see a bit of action before spring!! The only all day snow we've had was actually on Christmas Day.

[Front Ranger]

Forecast last night was for snow showers this AM, with up to 1" of snow. Woke up this morning to 7" of fresh powder and still snowing heavily. Downside is I've been stuck in traffic for 45 min trying to get to Boulder.

[Kayla]

Forecast here was for a trace to an inch and I picked up 3" of dry fluff last night with the front. So ends an impressive snowfall stretch with 23" on the week. Looks to be a chilly day with highs around 20F. Currently 16F.

 

Looks like we stay dry for most of this week until Sunday. ECMWF/GFS/GEM are all showing a pretty significant storm with plenty of moisture and Arctic cold advection in the Sunday/Monday timeframe.

[Black Hole]

Forecast last night was for snow showers this AM, with up to 1" of snow. Woke up this morning to 7" of fresh powder and still snowing heavily. Downside is I've been stuck in traffic for 45 min trying to get to Boulder.

Crazy! Post some pictures of that. 

[Black Hole]

ECWMF EPS continues to advertise a deep and persistent trough starting about Sunday and continuing through the extended. My feeling is that the moisture will focus over the southern part of the west, but it doesn't take much with how cold it will be for a little accumulation here and there.

[Front Ranger]

Crazy! Post some pictures of that.

Will do when I get home (though it will be close to dark). Apparently our area ended up with close to a foot.

 

Can't remember a more under-forecast storm here. The models were clueless literally within hours.

[Black Hole]

Will do when I get home (though it will be close to dark). Apparently our area ended up with close to a foot.

 

Can't remember a more under-forecast storm here. The models were clueless literally within hours.

 

It's hard to believe this could even happen. Simply amazing. As I mentioned the other day, over-performing storms are very rare for me. 

[Front Ranger]

It's hard to believe this could even happen. Simply amazing. As I mentioned the other day, over-performing storms are very rare for me. 

 

Yeah, like I said I've never seen anything like it. I've seen storms forecast for 2-4" deliver up to maybe 7-8".

 

If you look at the storm reports, that 11.6" is the closest to where I live: https://www.weather.gov/source/crh/snowmap.html?sid=bou

 

So I was definitely in the bulls eye, but there was still a large area of 6"+ for most of Denver and the NW suburbs.

[Front Ranger]

Some pics from this morning.
 

 

 

[Black Hole]

ECMWF digs a piece of the PV right into the west. Would be really cold with that and probably get some low density snow too. 

[Front Ranger]

ECMWF digs a piece of the PV right into the west. Would be really cold with that and probably get some low density snow too. 

 

Yeah, after an awful December, January has turned out quite nice around here (2.5 week stretch of snow cover going) and it looks like February might continue to be active and cool.

[Black Hole]

Forecast looks a lot less interesting for me now. The first wave is all rain and the 2nd takes so long to get here its only a brief period of snow as it arrives. That's just the theme this winter.

[Kayla]

Under a Winter Storm Warning here for 5-10" of snow tomorrow into Monday morning. Looks like a pretty good forecast at this point.

 

These snow forecasts are tough with these arctic fronts and extremely high snow ratios. If the front stalls like the ECMWF shows then we could easily see a foot plus of snow or if it's more transitionary then we could be on the lower end of the expected amounts.

 

Either way, temps plummeting from the 40's early Sunday morning to the low single digits by Sunday afternoon with heavy snow will be fun to see. I just hope my flight can get in from Vermont on Sunday night. 

[Kayla]

00z EPS mean temps over the next 15 days are indicating that this month could be a top tier cold month for Bozeman.

 

http://i67.tinypic.com/2iw29mb.png

[epiceast]

Blizzard warning for Hellgate canyon in Missoula! Might drive a couple miles to campus to see what the deal is...

[Black Hole]

I saw that blizzard warning earlier in Missoula. I have a friend who works at the NWS there so I may ask him about it. Looks solid for Kayla in this pattern. 

[Black Hole]

For me, I think I will do pretty well Tues-Thurs. Maybe somewhere in the 4-8" range over the 3 days. 

[Kayla]

Flew back into Bozeman last night and was greeted with snow and -2F temps. Looks like about 3-6" fell so definitely on the lower end of forecasts. Very Arctic feeling out there this late morning currently sitting at -8F with a low stratus deck overhead.

 

Looks like some more moisture arrives here tomorrow morning lasting into Wednesday. Looking at 45:1 snow ratios so it's not going to take much moisture to see some decent accumulations. Probably looking at 4-8".

[Front Ranger]

Had an 8" snow pack when I left for Steamboat Springs Friday morning, but it was decimated by warm temps over the weekend. Now down to 2", but I should be able to keep my snow cover streak alive (currently sitting at 18 days) for at least a little while longer, as it looks another storm moves in for 2-4" in less than 48 hours.

[Kayla]

Coldest day of the winter season for me today with a 1º/-8º temp spread. 

 

Currently -7º with light snow just beginning to fall. Always so bizarre to have snow falling with below zero weather. It's literally just frozen dust falling from the sky.

[Kayla]

Low of -9F this morning. Pretty impressive considering the solid cloud deck and light snowfall overnight. Picked up about an inch overnight and still expecting another 3-6" today through tonight.

 

Should stay below zero today. Currently -4F.

[Kayla]

Had some of the heaviest snowfall I've ever seen this evening. Picked up 3.5" in less than an hour. Up to 8" on the day now and still coming down. It's currently -4F so the snow ratios are just through the roof right now.

 

Looks like tomorrow will be brutally cold with highs around -5F and lows reaching -20F tomorrow night. This cold Arctic snowy pattern is just nuts with no end in sight... Can't even do anything outside anymore. 

[Black Hole]

3" of snow so far today. Quiet right now, but should see some snow at times through Thursday morning. I wouldn't be surprised to see another 4-8".