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The Rapid Refresh Revolution

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#1
richard mann

Posted 18 March 2014 - 09:14 PM

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The Rapid Refresh Revolution
 
There is a major revolution developing  in weather prediction, something many professionals are becoming aware of and using, but relatively unknown to most others:  The Rapid Refresh Revolution. How many times do you get the latest forecast over the web, radio, or TV and the short-term forecast is different than what is happening outside?  This is not rare, unfortunately.   We may be able to fix this.
 
Short-term forecasts are really important; they help us decide whether to take that bike ride, mow the lawn, take a run, and innumerable other tasks. ........
 
http://cliffmass.blo...revolution.html


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#2
Utrex

Posted 18 March 2014 - 09:23 PM

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Wait. Has this already been established completely and fully stable?


Edit: Research led me to the fact that this system will be released on July 2014.

#3
richard mann

Posted 19 March 2014 - 12:35 AM

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Wait. Has this already been established completely and [been deemed] fully stable?

Edit. ... [Asked and answered. ?]
 
.. Research [has ?] led me to the fact that this system will be released on July 2014.

 
.. Is this correct. ?


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#4
Utrex

Posted 19 March 2014 - 03:34 PM

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.. Is this correct. ?

From

http://ruc.noaa.gov/hrrr/:


"…RAPv2 - occurred at 12z 25 Feb 2014, and HRRR - now planned for July 2014."


It seems the one we are looking at is the HRRR, or the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh. They also will demonstrate and test the HRRR during late spring of 2014: "The HRRR is run by NOAA/ESRL/GSD as a real-time demonstration and with operational implementation at NCEP planned for late spring 2014.

#5
TheBigOne

Posted 21 March 2014 - 10:38 PM

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The Rapid Refresh Revolution
 
There is a major revolution developing  in weather prediction, something many professionals are becoming aware of and using, but relatively unknown to most others:  The Rapid Refresh Revolution. How many times do you get the latest forecast over the web, radio, or TV and the short-term forecast is different than what is happening outside?  This is not rare, unfortunately.   We may be able to fix this.
 
Short-term forecasts are really important; they help us decide whether to take that bike ride, mow the lawn, take a run, and innumerable other tasks. ........
 
http://cliffmass.blo...revolution.html

I hear you!  The last few years the NWS has been unusually horrible for short term here in the valley.   They will say it's sunny when it's overcast causing the highs to be dropped 5 degrees or they will say it's cloudy today when in reality the sky is wall to wall sunshine!      Point in case was last summer where they predicted highs of only 82-84 because of cloud cover not burning off till afternoon for most of August but in reality it was mostly clear at night and the ACTUAL highs wounded up between 90 and 95 with high dewpoints in the 60s at the McNary Airport KSLE.

 

 

It seems to have started when they offered customized forecasts.



#6
TheBigOne

Posted 21 March 2014 - 10:42 PM

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The Rapid Refresh Revolution
 
There is a major revolution developing  in weather prediction, something many professionals are becoming aware of and using, but relatively unknown to most others:  The Rapid Refresh Revolution. How many times do you get the latest forecast over the web, radio, or TV and the short-term forecast is different than what is happening outside?  This is not rare, unfortunately.   We may be able to fix this.
 
Short-term forecasts are really important; they help us decide whether to take that bike ride, mow the lawn, take a run, and innumerable other tasks. ........
 
http://cliffmass.blo...revolution.html

I would comment on his blog as I strongly wish for the computing power to be available but he has locked it up unless you have an Open ID account.



#7
Black Hole

Posted 21 March 2014 - 11:28 PM

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I use the HRRR all the time. Its very accurate and amazingly useful. If they could extend the hours by about 8 or so it would be much better though.


Winter 2018/2019

Nov 24: 3.3", 30: 1" (4.3") ::: Dec 2: 4.6", 3: .8", 5: .3", 12: 2.3", 21: .6", 24: 1.4", 25: 1.5", 26: 2.7", 27: 1.5", 30: .8" (16.5") ::: Jan 6: 2.7", 16: 1.1", 18: 1", 21: 5.6", 23: .4" (10.8") ::: Feb 5: 3.7", 6: 4.3", 7: 2.0", 10: 4.5", 15: 3.4", 19: 2.8" (20.7") ::: Mar 2: 3.0", 3: 2.3", 8: 3.2", 13: 6.0", 14: 1.1", 28: 1.2", 29: 3.9" (20.7") ::: April 10: .3", 12: 3" (3.3")

Total: 76.3"

 

Winter 2017/2018

Dec 4: 3.2", 16: 0.9", 20: 2.1", 23: 1.5", 25: 4.6" (12.3") ::: Jan 6: 1.5", 20: 10.8", 25: 1.5" (13.8") ::: Feb 19: 8.6", 20: 2.4", 23: 7.1", 25: .5" (18.6") ::: Mar 4: 13", 15: 1.8", 17: 5.3", 25: 4.2" (24.3") ::: April 12: 1", 17: 1.3" (2.3")

Total: 69.3"

Winter 2016/17 Snow:
Nov 17: 3.2", 23: 1.6", 28: 9.2" (14) ::: Dec 1: .5", 16: 2.5", 25: 13" (16) ::: Jan 2: 5", 3: 2.4", 4: 7.7", 12: 1", 19: 1.2", 21: 13", 23: 6", 24: 1", 25: 3.7", 26: 2.5" (43.5)  ::: Feb 11: .5", 23: 6.5", 27: 4.5" (13.5) ::: Mar 5: 5.5" (5.5) ::: Apr 8: 2", 9: 1.8" (3.8) ::: May 17: 1" (1)

Total: 96.3"


#8
richard mann

Posted 25 March 2014 - 07:03 PM

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.. oops. Wrong thread.

Main post-delete feature/ button, not having been added as yet.


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