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3/13 - 3/14 Monster March Storm

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#1
Tom

Posted 10 March 2019 - 04:10 AM

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This may very well be the strongest storm to hit the Sub Forum this month and it will pack quite a punch for certain locals.  A whole host of interesting wx is expected to target the central CONUS states from Severe Wx across the deep South, to a raging Blizzard into the Great Plains of W NE/Dakotas and a taste of Spring time warmth across the MW/GL's.  This system will carry a dramatic wind field for many of us on this board and quite a deep low pressure which will track out of the 4 corners region and into the central Plains.

 

Let's discuss...

 

First thing that stands out is the massive wind field and likely Blizzard which will rage across the foothills of CO and into portions of W NE into the Dakotas.  The 00z Euro is suggesting max wind gusts topping 60-70 mph in NE!  All indications are that this will be a ferocious winter storm where the snows do fall.  On the flip side, severe wx is more than likely across the southern Plains states.  What a classic March Blizzard!

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#2
gosaints

Posted 10 March 2019 - 05:25 AM

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Looks terrible for the minnesota river valley through the metro....

#3
CentralNebWeather

Posted 10 March 2019 - 07:45 AM

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This may very well be the strongest storm to hit the Sub Forum this month and it will pack quite a punch for certain locals. A whole host of interesting wx is expected to target the central CONUS states from Severe Wx across the deep South, to a raging Blizzard into the Great Plains of W NE/Dakotas and a taste of Spring time warmth across the MW/GL's. This system will carry a dramatic wind field for many of us on this board and quite a deep low pressure which will track out of the 4 corners region and into the central Plains.

Let's discuss...



First thing that stands out is the massive wind field and likely Blizzard which will rage across the foothills of CO and into portions of W NE into the Dakotas. The 00z Euro is suggesting max wind gusts topping 60-70 mph in NE! All indications are that this will be a ferocious winter storm where the snows do fall. On the flip side, severe wx is more than likely across the southern Plains states. What a classic March Blizzard!


Should be fun to watch Tom. Right now my county is on the edge. Hastings said our area could end with several inches of snow with winds of 50-60. They didn’t say blizzard but made it known that even a little amount of snow with those winds will cause problems. Also predicting 3” of rain prior to this on our glacier. Never boring around here this winter. Latest NAM through 84 hours has snow just 1 county to our west as it is still developing.

#4
CentralNebWeather

Posted 10 March 2019 - 08:32 AM

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Attached File  Canadian 1.png   158.42KB   0 downloads

 

12Z GFS, GFS FV3 and Canadian have inched the snow line farther east in Central Nebraska.  Here is the Canadian.  



#5
St Paul Storm

Posted 10 March 2019 - 08:43 AM

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Temps trending a little colder and the track is a bit further east. 1-2” of rain on top of a 22” snowpack followed by several inches of snow...would be interesting.
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#6
gosaints

Posted 10 March 2019 - 08:45 AM

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Temps trending a little colder and the track is a bit further east. 1-2” of rain on top of a 22” snowpack followed by several inches of snow...would be interesting.


we got about .4 inches of rain before change over yesterday. Almost no runoff. It at the bottom if the glacier
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#7
CentralNebWeather

Posted 10 March 2019 - 08:50 AM

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Temps trending a little colder and the track is a bit further east. 1-2” of rain on top of a 22” snowpack followed by several inches of snow...would be interesting.


You’re right. From a couple days ago until now the low has been moving eastward. Let’s see what the Euro says. I wouldn’t mind one more big storm this winter. Now local weather apps are saying potential blizzard conditions Wednesday night into Thursday morning with rain/snow then snow. No mention of accumulating snow yet, but over 50 mph winds would do the trick.
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#8
gosaints

Posted 10 March 2019 - 10:18 AM

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Euro looks to be a bit west of the gfs at 96. 981
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#9
Hawkeye

Posted 10 March 2019 - 10:28 AM

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Ryan Maue just tweeted a graphic of the new euro showing 972 mb over Kansas, which would be the strongest low in Kansas in at least 40 years.


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season snowfall: 47.9"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#10
gabel23

Posted 10 March 2019 - 10:37 AM

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Ryan Maue just tweeted a graphic of the new euro showing 972 mb over Kansas, which would be the strongest low in Kansas in at least 40 years.


Wow this would be a storm. The path it takes that might give me snow!

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#11
gosaints

Posted 10 March 2019 - 11:51 AM

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Overnight lows in the mid forties on the euro wed and Thursday...

#12
james1976

Posted 10 March 2019 - 12:06 PM

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Overnight lows in the mid forties on the euro wed and Thursday...

Typically this time of year id be fine with that but not with this snowpack.



#13
gosaints

Posted 10 March 2019 - 12:08 PM

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Typically this time of year id be fine with that but not with this snowpack.



on the bright side getting that warm probably means the heavy inverted trough rains are to our west

#14
james1976

Posted 10 March 2019 - 12:20 PM

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on the bright side getting that warm probably means the heavy inverted trough rains are to our west

Yeah I wish we could get 40s without any rain. Gonna be a mess



#15
CentralNebWeather

Posted 10 March 2019 - 01:30 PM

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Hastings still saying potential blizzard just to the west of my area but won’t take much more of a jog east to put us in potential blizzard conditions. Still 3 days away. North Platte saying one of the deepest lows in over 10 years. Someone is going to get buried by this. Goodland thinks temps are too warm into Thursday. Lots of moving parts.

#16
clintbeed1993

Posted 10 March 2019 - 01:42 PM

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We ALWAYS waste the best storms and precip on cold rain. I swear <_<  Completely useless and actually a problem right now with the flooding potential.


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#17
gabel23

Posted 10 March 2019 - 02:12 PM

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We ALWAYS waste the best storms and precip on cold rain. I swear <_<  Completely useless and actually a problem right now with the flooding potential.

I just went around the house and I have major ice dam problems. I hope the rain we do get comes gradual and can break that s**t up. Nothing worse than flooding and especially in the spring! Below what is left of my snow; which is about 5" there is a layer of ice. We could have major problems if the rain comes all at once. 


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#18
gabel23

Posted 10 March 2019 - 02:15 PM

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Hastings still saying potential blizzard just to the west of my area but won’t take much more of a jog east to put us in potential blizzard conditions. Still 3 days away. North Platte saying one of the deepest lows in over 10 years. Someone is going to get buried by this. Goodland thinks temps are too warm into Thursday. Lots of moving parts. 

That's some wording right there; too bad we waste it in the spring as Clint mentioned. Maybe we get lucky on this and models are being too warm with this thing. 

 

This system has the potential to be one of the stronger storms in
the last 10 years or so - with very deep surface low pressure and
abundant moisture resulting in strong winds and heavy precipitation.
Please monitor the latest forecast information early this week.


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#19
gabel23

Posted 10 March 2019 - 02:25 PM

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Here's the latest from Hastings. They; along with OAX mention that storms forming out in front of the ULL may rob the deformation zone of precip and also we might get dry slotted. North Platte on the other hand mentions a conveyor belt of moisture wrapping back into the trowal leading to a major blizzard. It will be an interesting next couple days. 

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#20
Tom

Posted 11 March 2019 - 02:45 AM

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00z Euro...models are shifting the snow farther NW and not really effecting anyone on here but precip will be plentiful across the Plains.

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#21
Tom

Posted 11 March 2019 - 03:21 AM

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In general, for real warmth to arrive this far north in March you need a strong southerly flow.  Needless to say, folks around the MW/GL's will indeed have their SW Flow accompanied by very windy conditions with 50-60 mph+ wind gusts!  The Windy City will be livin' up to it's name on Thursday.

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#22
St Paul Storm

Posted 11 March 2019 - 04:21 AM

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Looks like we’re going to dodge a big bullet here in terms of rainfall. That dry slot on the Euro looking good. I’ll take it. The warm March sun melted some snow yesterday and is already causing issues in the neighborhood. The drains are completely iced over and any rainfall would only add to the problems.

#23
gosaints

Posted 11 March 2019 - 04:37 AM

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Looks like we’re going to dodge a big bullet here in terms of rainfall. That dry slot on the Euro looking good. I’ll take it. The warm March sun melted some snow yesterday and is already causing issues in the neighborhood. The drains are completely iced over and any rainfall would only add to the problems.

Models wont latch onto rainfall potential until much closer to the storm.  Thats classic spring cutter.  AS of now it does look like crisis averted.



#24
LNK_Weather

Posted 11 March 2019 - 04:42 AM

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...FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY EVENING...

The National Weather Service in Omaha/Valley has issued a

* Flood Watch for portions of Iowa and Nebraska, including the
following areas, in Iowa, Fremont, Harrison, Mills, Monona,
Montgomery, Page, Pottawattamie, and Shelby. In Nebraska,
Antelope, Boone, Burt, Butler, Cass, Cedar, Colfax, Cuming,
Dodge, Douglas, Gage, Jefferson, Johnson, Knox, Lancaster,
Madison, Nemaha, Otoe, Pawnee, Pierce, Platte, Richardson,
Saline, Sarpy, Saunders, Seward, Stanton, Thurston,
Washington, and Wayne.

* From late Tuesday night through Wednesday evening

* A strong storm will bring warming temperatures and 1 to 3 inches
of rain to the region during the middle of the week. This will
result in an increased risk of river flooding, do to the unusual
combination of heavy rain, snowmelt, saturated or frozen soils,
and thick ice cover on area rivers.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Significant and rapid river level increases
are possible do to runoff or localized ice jams. Anyone with
interests along or near area rivers should continue to monitor
the forecast and river levels closely.
 

>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 3/9/2019 @ 12:51 PM CST

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#25
FarmerRick

Posted 11 March 2019 - 05:43 AM

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From the OAX disco this morning:

 

<snip>

 

And finally to the part of the discussion this forecaster has
been looking forward to the most. Am I talking about the end? Well
maybe partly, but I am mostly referring to the end of this week
and early next week, when a high amplitude ridge looks like it
will try and take shape over the Western U.S. This hints at the
potential for a less active storm track and an opportunity to dry
out over the Central Plains. Perhaps we could even, dare I say
it, see something closer to spring if the ridge shifts east later
next week.

 


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#26
LNK_Weather

Posted 11 March 2019 - 05:44 AM

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From the OAX disco this morning:

 

<snip>

I see that too. We'll still be below normal, but by less than 10 degrees as opposed to the 30 degrees below normal we saw last week. Basically, it will feel like Spring. Maybe we can salvage the severe wx season after all.


>1" Snowfalls for Lincoln Municipal Airport in 2018-2019: 10/14 (3.5"), 11/17 (2.6"), 11/25 (3.6"), 12/1-2 (3.0"), 12/28 (2.4"), 1/11-12 (4.9"), 1/22 (3.9"), 2/6-7 (2.2"), 2/15 (2.6"), 2/16-17 (4.2"), 2/19-20 (5.1"), 2/23 (8.0"), 3/2 (2.0"), 3/6-7 (4.3")

 

Total Snowfall for 2018-2019 @ KLNK: 55.5"             Coldest Low: -9*F (1/30, 3/4)

 

 

First flake of the season: 10/14/2018 @ 7:01 AM CDT                Last flake of the season (so far): 3/9/2019 @ 12:51 PM CST

_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

 

2018 Severe Weather Season Statistics for my apartment:

 

Tornado Watches: 2 (Last: 6/11/2018)

Tornado Warnings: 0 (Last: 5/9/2016)

Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 6 (Last: 9/20/2018)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 5 (Last: 9/20/2018)

SPC Day 1 High Risks: 0 (Last: 6/5/2008)

SPC Day 1 Moderate Risks: 1 (Last: 6/1/2018)

SPC Day 1 Enhanced Risks: 3 (Last: 6/30/2018)

SPC Day 1 Slight Risks: 9 (Last: 9/20/2018)


#27
Iowawx

Posted 11 March 2019 - 06:15 AM

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This should provide a decent rainfall here. Maybe 0.8-1.0" if models are right. Really looking forward to reaching the mid 50's on Wednesday! 


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#28
CentralNebWeather

Posted 11 March 2019 - 07:17 AM

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12Z NAM wants to paint a stripe of heavier snow on the backside of the low over Central and East Central Nebraska.  That would cause many problems if the winds are as strong as are being advertised.  Local mets. keep saying even with 1-3", winds of over 60 MPH would cause blizzard conditions.  Might be really interesting here overnight Wed. through Thursday morning.


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#29
gabel23

Posted 11 March 2019 - 07:35 AM

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12Z NAM wants to paint a stripe of heavier snow on the backside of the low over Central and East Central Nebraska.  That would cause many problems if the winds are as strong as are being advertised.  Local mets. keep saying even with 1-3", winds of over 60 MPH would cause blizzard conditions.  Might be really interesting here overnight Wed. through Thursday morning.

yes it does; this mornings GFS wanted to do the same thing somewhat. Might be a small area but someone might get lucky on the back side of the low. 



#30
CentralNebWeather

Posted 11 March 2019 - 08:13 AM

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Attached File  GFS FV3.png   132.38KB   0 downloads

12Z GFS also putting down some snow and the GFS FV3 looks like this.  Would be something if this materialized, but as this model has done most of the winter it overplays amounts.  Fun to look at however.



#31
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 11 March 2019 - 09:43 AM

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Its the semi-annual, Sidney Nabraska Storm.
A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."

#32
East Dubzz

Posted 11 March 2019 - 10:33 AM

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The change in time for models runs is still throwing me off.

#33
CentralNebWeather

Posted 11 March 2019 - 10:44 AM

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12Z Euro also painting a swath of snow through Central Nebraska Wed. night through Thursday morning.  Ok then.  


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#34
Craig-OmahaWX

Posted 11 March 2019 - 01:17 PM

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You can just feel the excitement in here! lol


2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5"

 

For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 :

 

https://www.facebook...snowdayweather/


#35
Tom

Posted 12 March 2019 - 03:24 AM

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This is such a fascinating storm system that is coming together.  You don't often see wx porn like this as it will come very close to setting pressure records across KS as the 2nd Blizzard since Feb rages across the central CONUS. 

 

Interestingly enough, during LRC cycle # 1 (Oct 13th-15th), there were 2 streams of energy that didn't quite phase into a monster storm.  The northern piece back then tracked across the northern Rockies/MT and the southern piece dug deep into S TX while the northern trough dug down the leeward side of the Rockies on the 14th.  Similarly speaking, this system is taking shape in almost the same locations.  It's fascinating watching this storm come together and produce a Monstrous system across the Plains states.

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#36
CentralNebWeather

Posted 12 March 2019 - 04:13 AM

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This is such a fascinating storm system that is coming together.  You don't often see wx porn like this as it will come very close to setting pressure records across KS as the 2nd Blizzard since Feb rages across the central CONUS. 

 

Interestingly enough, during LRC cycle # 1 (Oct 13th-15th), there were 2 streams of energy that didn't quite phase into a monster storm.  The northern piece back then tracked across the northern Rockies/MT and the southern piece dug deep into S TX while the northern trough dug down the leeward side of the Rockies on the 14th.  Similarly speaking, this system is taking shape in almost the same locations.  It's fascinating watching this storm come together and produce a Monstrous system across the Plains states.

Tom, NWS Hastings this morning says they almost issued a Winter Storm Watch as the chance of a heavy band forming over Central Nebraska is increasing.  That very heavy snow band could be accompanied by winds gusting to 65 MPH which would obviously be blizzard conditions.  They are waiting as they already have a flood watch and high wind watch.  Wed. night into Thursday morning has the potential to be extremely dangerous in Central and Western Nebraska.


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#37
gosaints

Posted 12 March 2019 - 05:45 AM

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As expected things seem to be trending wetter in the warm sector.   



#38
Snowshoe

Posted 12 March 2019 - 06:17 AM

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Flood watches from Kansas to Canada.  :wacko:


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Wisconsin_Rapids.gif


#39
Tom

Posted 12 March 2019 - 06:20 AM

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Tom, NWS Hastings this morning says they almost issued a Winter Storm Watch as the chance of a heavy band forming over Central Nebraska is increasing. That very heavy snow band could be accompanied by winds gusting to 65 MPH which would obviously be blizzard conditions. They are waiting as they already have a flood watch and high wind watch. Wed. night into Thursday morning has the potential to be extremely dangerous in Central and Western Nebraska.


This may rival some of the historic March storms that have traversed the region. Not a boring wx pattern in the Plains!

#40
CentralNebWeather

Posted 12 March 2019 - 06:21 AM

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12Z NAM looking juicier over Nebraska.  I will look at amounts when it is finished.  



#41
CentralNebWeather

Posted 12 March 2019 - 06:27 AM

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If the NAM were to verify, this could be close to our greatest snowfall of the season. (Blizzard of Dec. 26th we had 6-8" with large drifts).    With the projected winds, are blizzard warnings in our future?  What a winter around Nebraska.


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#42
CentralNebWeather

Posted 12 March 2019 - 06:35 AM

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Attached File  Pivotal.png   132.95KB   1 downloads

12Z NAM-  my area close to 7" with 11" not far away.



#43
CentralNebWeather

Posted 12 March 2019 - 06:57 AM

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12Z 3km NAM also showing similar numbers and moving farther east in Nebraska.  Could Clint and Gabel23 also be in on the action?


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#44
CentralNebWeather

Posted 12 March 2019 - 07:58 AM

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My gosh, 12Z GFS has the low at 969 in western Kansas at 21Z.  I think I saw yesterday this could be the lowest pressure ever in Kansas history.  I will check, but if it isn't it would have to be close.


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#45
CentralNebWeather

Posted 12 March 2019 - 08:07 AM

CentralNebWeather

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Looks like most models are showing the heavy snow band over Central Nebraska.  The Euro was showing it on the 0z.  If the Euro holds I would think Winter Storm Watches might be issued for more of the area, probably from location west imo.  We'll see.



#46
jaster220

Posted 12 March 2019 - 08:29 AM

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You can just feel the excitement in here! lol

 

Presuming you meant [sarc] with your post. Which would describe almost the entire winter here. With this one, we get a brief warm spell filled with rain and winds which will make it feel much less "user friendly" than say a couple days @ 60F with sun and light winds. 


Winter 2018-19 Snow Total = 55.3"  Largest Storm: 2x 7" (1/28-29 & 1/18-19)        Oct: 0.0 Nov: 15.2 Dec: 2.0 Jan: 21.7 Feb: 14.1 Mar: 2.3 Apr: 0.0 

 

Annual avg for mby = 49.9"  Avg for last 10 seasons = 67.4" (135% of normal)

2017-18 = 68.3"   2016-17 = 52"   2015-16 = 57.4"   2014-15 = 55.3"   2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"   2011-12 = 43.7"

 

Notable Blizzards/Snowstorms in SWMI: Nov 2015, Feb 2015, Jan 2014Feb 2011, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Jan 1982, Jan 1979, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, March 1973, Jan 1967, March 1947, Jan 1918

 

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967

 

"Long range winter forecasting - it's like tossing darts in a hurricane.."  "In my day, they didn't name 'em, they just called 'em blizzards! *Shakes fist in air and ambles away mumbling to himself" and to think kids nowadays get day's off school because the wind blew. I think in '78 we only got 1 day off”  "..It's the U.P. where there are two seasons. Winter, and three months of bad skiing.."


#47
gabel23

Posted 12 March 2019 - 08:34 AM

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Looks like most models are showing the heavy snow band over Central Nebraska.  The Euro was showing it on the 0z.  If the Euro holds I would think Winter Storm Watches might be issued for more of the area, probably from location west imo.  We'll see.

I think your in prime position yet again to get into the action! I don't think the snow will make it this far east but you never know. This storm is ridiculously strong! 



#48
OmahaSnowFan

Posted 12 March 2019 - 08:52 AM

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First flood warnings have been issued for the Elkhorn River west of Omaha. NWS talking of moderate to major and possibly historic flooding coming later this week and weekend.

 

I've had .26" of rain so far this morning on my weather station.



#49
CentralNebWeather

Posted 12 March 2019 - 09:01 AM

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I think your in prime position yet again to get into the action! I don't think the snow will make it this far east but you never know. This storm is ridiculously strong! 

I really think as strong as this low will be there may be some bands that are very heavy.  I think you have a chance.  It is all going to depend on temp.



#50
CentralNebWeather

Posted 12 March 2019 - 09:06 AM

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Attached File  Winter Storm Watch.jpg   270.81KB   0 downloads

Well there we go, Winter Storm Watches just issued.  


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