Tom Posted March 25, 2019 Report Share Posted March 25, 2019 This has been a very active month of March and it's "fitting" to see the month end on a stormy note. With that being said, the models have converged on a pretty potent Spring storm system to come out of CO and track across the Plains due west/east into the Lower GL's late this week into the weekend. Seems like a heavy precip producer is on tap with some late season snows across portions of NE into the MW/GL's. Let's discuss... LOT has already issued a Hydrologic Outlook in advance of this system... Hydrologic OutlookHydrologic OutlookILC007-031-037-043-053-063-075-089-091-093-097-099-103-105-111-141-197-201-INC007-073-089-111-127-252145- Hydrologic OutlookNational Weather Service Chicago IL438 AM CDT Mon Mar 25 2019 /538 AM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019/ ...Significant Rainfall Late This Week May Lead to RenewedFlooding ... A front will stall over the region late in the week, which willresult in a couple bouts of moderate to heavy rainfall fromThursday night through Saturday. Isolated thunderstorms are alsopossible. Significant rainfall totals of one inch to in excess oftwo inches are possible, which could cause sharp river and streamrises and lowland flooding. This includes the most impactedbasins the past few weeks, the Rock, Pecatonica and Fox. Those living along rivers and streams should prepared for thepossibility of renewed flooding. Stay tuned to the latestforecasts for updates. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 25, 2019 Report Share Posted March 25, 2019 This has been a very active month of March and it's "fitting" to see the month end on a stormy note. With that being said, the models have diverged on a pretty potent Spring storm system to come out of CO and track across the Plains due west/east into the Lower GL's late this week into the weekend. Seems like a heavy precip producer is on tap with some late season snows across portions of NE into the MW/GL's. Let's discuss... LOT has already issued a Hydrologic Outlook in advance of this system...Looks very active around here this weekend. Some models putting out a ridiculous amount of snow. Storms have happened quite a few times over the years in late March and early April. Last year we had a potent storm the 2nd week of April. Good thing about storms this time of year, the snow doesn't stick around long. The bad news is more precipitation on top of already saturated soil and full rivers. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 25, 2019 Report Share Posted March 25, 2019 Here is the 0Z Canadian for example. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Andie Posted March 25, 2019 Report Share Posted March 25, 2019 North Texas had many areas of strong storms last night. I was on the Red River and the area just NE of Sherman saw a funnel cloud and rain while NE of Dallas in McKinney and Frisco had marble to golfball size hail coating the ground like snow. Plenty of punch in these but my place SW of Ft. Worth got only a trace of rain. Lots of lightning and volatility in these.A very busy Sunday evening. 1 Quote Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. “If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.” Gen. Sheridan 1866 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 25, 2019 Report Share Posted March 25, 2019 Give me half an inch of snow from this so we can extend our last measurable snow date imo. After such an awesome Winter it'd be a shame to have our last measurable snow be before the average date. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 25, 2019 Report Share Posted March 25, 2019 Already looking at many changes to school activities later this week. We might hit 80 degrees on Wed. and have a snowstorm Friday night with quite a bit of rain preceding the snow on Friday. Soccer, Track, Tennis and Golf are looking to reschedule. This winter and spring have kept our AD busy with postponements and cancellations. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 25, 2019 Report Share Posted March 25, 2019 Looks like the 12Z GFS, FV3 GFS, and the CMC all have the snow going across Nebraska into Iowa Friday/Saturday. I'm sure as always temperatures will be a big factor on what the snow accumulations will be. If the snow comes over night it would have a better chance of piling up. Still plenty of time for changes one way or another. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 25, 2019 Report Share Posted March 25, 2019 The UK continues to be farther south than other models. Today's 12z run has the heavy precip down in central/northern Missouri, with only light precip up to Cedar Rapids. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Grizzcoat Posted March 25, 2019 Report Share Posted March 25, 2019 Euro seems to have jumped N from 00z Quote The two loudest sounds known to man: a gun that goes bang when it is supposed to go click and a gun that goes click when it is supposed to go bang. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Madtown Posted March 25, 2019 Report Share Posted March 25, 2019 bring it I'd love a quick snow storm! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 25, 2019 Report Share Posted March 25, 2019 12z Euro Total precip Snow precip Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 26, 2019 Report Share Posted March 26, 2019 Hastings beginning to talk about this storm. Friday afternoon through Friday night. Possible moderate accumulations with enough wind to cause blowing. They still say 36-48 hours before talk of specific snow amounts. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Craig-OmahaWX Posted March 26, 2019 Report Share Posted March 26, 2019 Plenty of ensembles look good for much of Nebraska! Would love one more snow to make us hit some records! 3 Quote 2018-2019 Snowfall Totals So Far : 59.5" For More Winter Weather Forecasts for 2017-2018 : https://www.facebook.com/snowdayweather/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted March 26, 2019 Report Share Posted March 26, 2019 The cmc has been extremely consistent for this storm Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gosaints Posted March 26, 2019 Report Share Posted March 26, 2019 The cmc has been extremely consent for this stormProbably consistently over done in the cold sector 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 26, 2019 Report Share Posted March 26, 2019 2-3 days ago, this system was looking pretty robust for many. Since then, models have trended south and weaker. Now it's looking more like light rain followed by light snow from Nebraska through Iowa... not too exciting. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 26, 2019 Report Share Posted March 26, 2019 2-3 days ago, this system was looking pretty robust for many. Since then, models have trended south and weaker. Now it's looking more like light rain followed by light snow from Nebraska through Iowa... not too exciting.Probably for the best, though. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 26, 2019 Report Share Posted March 26, 2019 2-3 days ago, this system was looking pretty robust for many. Since then, models have trended south and weaker. Now it's looking more like light rain followed by light snow from Nebraska through Iowa... not too exciting.The last thing we need from this is appreciable precip. Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 26, 2019 Report Share Posted March 26, 2019 Wednesday is looking a bit windy, but it will be the warmest day in several months... 60 in Dubuque to low 70s along the Missouri river. Windy low 60s may have a bit of a chill to it, but it's nice to see 60º pop up again. 1 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 26, 2019 Report Share Posted March 26, 2019 The NAM wants to go way south with this. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 26, 2019 Report Share Posted March 26, 2019 The NAM wants to go way south with this.Could happen, but not worth too much attention for the long range NAM. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 26, 2019 Report Share Posted March 26, 2019 Models today are really backing off on the snow around here. Local mets. seem to think it will primarily be a rain event, and even that looks to be shifting south. NAM is way south for what it's worth. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 26, 2019 Report Share Posted March 26, 2019 The Canadian is off its rocker. It has a strong, wrapped up low dumping heavy rain and snow across Iowa. It actually got stronger this run while every other model has gone south and weak. There's no way it's right. 2 Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 26, 2019 Report Share Posted March 26, 2019 12z FV3 - Little if any precip north of Des Moines-Cedar Rapids. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 26, 2019 Report Share Posted March 26, 2019 The Canadian is off its rocker. It has a strong, wrapped up low dumping heavy rain and snow across Iowa. It actually got stronger this run while every other model has gone south and weak. There's no way it's right.That is much stronger. I anticipate this becoming a general rain event with some wet snow in the evening when it is ending. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 26, 2019 Report Share Posted March 26, 2019 12Z Euro wants to put down a good amount of snow across Nebraska Friday. When the King is on board, I put more stock into the potential. We'll see. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 26, 2019 Report Share Posted March 26, 2019 18Z NAM back north with a good amount of snow over Nebraska through 84 Hours. Who the heck knows what will happen with this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted March 26, 2019 Report Share Posted March 26, 2019 Either way this starts a train of storms. And some are looking like just dumps of precipitation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 27, 2019 Report Share Posted March 27, 2019 Either way this starts a train of storms. And some are looking like just dumps of precipitation.Which we don't need. Drove thru Winslow on the drive back down from Fargo today and the scene there was just sad. If every storm shriveled up till May I wouldn't complain. Not sure the rivers can even handle a routine thunderstorm at this point yet alone a train of organized storm systems. 2 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hawkeye Posted March 27, 2019 Report Share Posted March 27, 2019 NAM went from way south at 12z to a strong, north outlier at 00z. Quote season snowfall: 34.8" '22-23: 30.2" '21-22: 27.1" '20-21: 52.5" '19-20: 36.2" '18-19: 50.2" '17-18: 39.5" Average snowfall: ~30" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
East Dubzz Posted March 27, 2019 Report Share Posted March 27, 2019 Not much snow, but it appears the GFS took a bit of a jump north as well with the heaviest precipitation. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted March 27, 2019 Author Report Share Posted March 27, 2019 It seems the models are shifting the heaviest precip farther south. I posted both the 00z Euro/Ukie below... 00z GEFS showing a similar trend as well... 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 27, 2019 Report Share Posted March 27, 2019 Hastings really backing off and down playing any snow, maybe 1" or less in the the western part of Central Nebraska. Will still see a cold rain, but snow chances have greatly been decreased. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 27, 2019 Report Share Posted March 27, 2019 12Z NAM throwing out insane amounts of snow for Friday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Minny_Weather Posted March 27, 2019 Report Share Posted March 27, 2019 May as well break the yearly snowfall record while we're at it I guess lol. 1 Quote Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormhunter87 Posted March 27, 2019 Report Share Posted March 27, 2019 Nam is bouncing all over. Wpc ain't buying any of this. I'm going with I have no idea how to call this. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 27, 2019 Report Share Posted March 27, 2019 12Z GFS and Canadian say what Friday snow? NAM looks like it is on its own island with this one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaster220 Posted March 27, 2019 Report Share Posted March 27, 2019 12Z NAM throwing out insane amounts of snow for Friday.12Z NAM.png LOL @ NAM in a marginal thermals scenario. My grid has a useless nasty 41F and strata-form Rainer for Saturday. My $$ be on that outcome Quote Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 53.1" (90% Normal Season) Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13) Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.3 Apr: 0.1 Avg = 59.2" (Harrison): 2023-24 = 53.1" Avg = 45.0" (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5" 2021-22 = 35.6" Avg = 49.7" (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2" 2019-20 = 48.0" 2018-19 = 56.1" 2017-18 = 68.3" 2016-17 = 52" 2015-16 = 57.4" 2014-15 = 55.3" 2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!) 2012-13 = 47.2" 2011-12 = 43.7" Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OmahaSnowFan Posted March 27, 2019 Report Share Posted March 27, 2019 12Z GFS and Canadian say what Friday snow? NAM looks like it is on its own island with this one.And wasn’t the Canadian also one of the models that was showing a lot of snow too earlier? I’m guessing the NAM is off it’s rocker 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CentralNebWeather Posted March 27, 2019 Report Share Posted March 27, 2019 And wasn’t the Canadian also one of the models that was showing a lot of snow too earlier? I’m guessing the NAM is off it’s rockerCanadian had large amounts of snow several days ago. Models struggling recently imo. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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