April 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Hawkeye]

Whatever wind this storm had is gone.  I am receiving low-end heavy rain (our first heavy downpour since the late Feb. blizzard), but very little wind and very little lightning/thunder.

[East Dubzz]

Whatever wind this storm had is gone. I am receiving low-end heavy rain (our first heavy downpour since the late Feb. blizzard), but very little wind and very little lightning/thunder.

Yeah, looks like the best of the lightning is to the south of you.

[Hawkeye]

That was a pretty feeble storm.  I picked up 0.28" of rain.  We could have easily been missed, though, so I'll take it.

[East Dubzz]

Spotter warned storm about 14 miles NW of me. Quarter sized hail. Can see some lightning from that area of storms here.

 

Some cells firing up a little west of CR. Hoping that turns into something. I’m not asking for too much, just hoping to not be completely left out!

[Stormy]

I got kind of lucky. Had several decent cells pass over me, but was on the south edge most of the time. Maybe 1” or so 1-2 miles north of me? I picked up just over 0.60” . Briefly really poured several times with a bit of pea- hail from the first cell. Also plenty of mostly incloud lightning & winds only around 30 mph I’m guessing. Didn’t take time to check my weather station yet

[East Dubzz]

New feature I discovered tonight with RadarScope is that it allows you to create GIFs from the radar loops. Anyway, here is one from storms popping in Oklahoma tonight. Awesome to see.

[Minny_Weather]

New feature I discovered tonight with RadarScope is that it allows you to create GIFs from the radar loops. Anyway, here is one from storms popping in Oklahoma tonight. Awesome to see.

Nice looking outflow out ahead of it too. Bet that's fun to stand outside in.

[Stormy]

New feature I discovered tonight with RadarScope is that it allows you to create GIFs from the radar loops. Anyway, here is one from storms popping in Oklahoma tonight. Awesome to see.

You can also create GIFS on COD Meteorology, but it seems you can't save it to your camera roll on an iPhone or iPad.

[Tom]

The JMA weeklies today are suggesting the warmth should prevail heading into next week and could have some legs into May.  It's Week 3-4 forecast is showing a 500mb similar to the one last year during May when we saw early season heat build up.  While I'm skeptical to see this evolve, there 

 

Week 2...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201904.D1712_gl2.png

 

 

Week 3-4...there is a good chance that someone from the MW/GL's and points east see a taste of Summer during the first 2 weeks of May.  I'm trying to pin down some dates but best guess at this time would be around the Week of the 12th where I see a big ridge develop.  Possibly a few days earlier as I am anticipating a 500mb ridge build in the means across S/SE Canada late in Week 1 of May (6th-8th).

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201904.D1712_gl2.png

[Andie]

We had a high of 85* yesterday, but the front will hold temps down to 70-71* today. Much drier air.

 

Lots of thunder and wild lightning last night. Received ~.50" rain. Wind threw off my rain gauge. Locally they're reporting about the same, generally.

The storm was not the nightmare that mets were calling for for north Texas. I think they were let down that there wasn't all this destruction. All the Gulf instability slid east. Fine with me.

[Niko]

Cloudy w rain for the next couple of days..UGH! Temps are mild today, but colder tomorrow. Currently at 50F.

[westMJim]

Parts of Michigan had a backward temperature swing last night. At Holland, Muskegon and Grand Rapids. At Holland the temperature rose from 59 at midnight all the way up to 68 at 2 AM and by 11 AM it was down to 53. At Muskegon the temperature went up from 61 at 11 PM to 68 at 12 midnight. and down to 48 by 10 AM. And here in Grand Rapids went from 59 at 3 am to 64 at 7 AM and is now at 56 at 11 am. See this more in the winter time but not so much in other times of the year.

[Hawkeye]

The GFS and FV3 have consistently been showing a wet system next week for the upper midwest, but the euro has been dry.  Last night, however, the euro jumped on board.  The 00z run has unsettled/showery weather most days next week.  Of course, there won't be any severe with that setup, just mostly light to moderate rain.

[Niko]

Sunshine trying to peek through, but clouds are winning. No rain yet, but, its coming. Alotta water coming ova the next couple of days. Flooding will be a real issue here.

[Stormy]

[Niko]

Some pics of the storm just before it hit last eve. My old phone doesn't take good pics in low light.

 

 

 

wow

[Hawkeye]

The GFS and FV3 have consistently been showing a wet system next week for the upper midwest, but the euro has been dry.  Last night, however, the euro jumped on board.  The 00z run has unsettled/showery weather most days next week.  Of course, there won't be any severe with that setup, just mostly light to moderate rain.

 

Well, the euro dropped the wetter pattern after only one run.  Now it keeps the central US upper low in the deep south and has mild/warm ridging over the top, across the upper midwest.

[Stormy]

Well, the euro dropped the wetter pattern after only one run.  Now it keeps the central US upper low in the deep south and has mild/warm ridging over the top, across the upper midwest.

Thanks for keeping us posted! Crazy models... Haha

[Stormy]

I got kind of lucky. Had several decent cells pass over me, but was on the south edge most of the time. Maybe 1” or so 1-2 miles north of me? I picked up just over 0.60” . Briefly really poured several times with a bit of pea- hail from the first cell. Also plenty of mostly incloud lightning & winds only around 30 mph I’m guessing. Didn’t take time to check my weather station yet

As expected, my sister one half mile to the north got 0.90" last eve & 1 mile south got 0.30".

[Andie]

Amazing pics Sparky! Glad you had some fun. We were thrilled the hail didn't manifest here and avoided our area.

But the lightning and thunder was pretty radical.

 

We're at 60*. Breezy at 15-20 mph.

I'm happy to live adventurously through you guys on the Plains up there!

[jaster220]

New feature I discovered tonight with RadarScope is that it allows you to create GIFs from the radar loops. Anyway, here is one from storms popping in Oklahoma tonight. Awesome to see.

 

Girl to guy on 1st date: "what town did you say you're from again?" Guy: "Slaughterville"   Girl (looking anxious): "Sorry, but I have go now.."

[Stormy]

Amazing pics Sparky! Glad you had some fun. We were thrilled the hail didn't manifest here and avoided our area.

But the lightning and thunder was pretty radical.

We're at 60*. Breezy at 15-20 mph.

I'm happy to live adventurously through you guys on the Plains up there!

Thank you!

Max. radar reflectivity across the conus the last 2 days. Click on images to view.

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Girl to guy on 1st date: "what town did you say you're from again?" Guy: "Slaughterville" Girl (looking anxious): "Sorry, but I have go now.."

My great-grandmother lived there for many many years and I have been there many many times. Blood red dirt and, yep, "Slaughterville".

Purcell was once a large pig and cattle hub for the railroads. Hence, taking your stock to slaughter at Slaughterville only seems the likely naming process.

[Tom]

Good Friday all!  It's been a windy night over here as I could here the winds gusts occasionally wake me up in the middle of the night.  We have a heavy overcast, temp of 41F, WC 31F, Winds out of the N 25 G 36 mph...not a pretty day and waiting for that sunshine to return later today.  What is certainly going to return are those warmer temps and back-2-back 70's for Chicago on Sun/Mon.  The tables have turned for the better and we are finally seeing better wx on the horizon.

 

While the central Plains and MW has lacked on the severe wx threat, I'm seeing a set up in the longer range that could change that.  During the last weekend of the month (27th-30th), the models are showing a potent cold shot coming down out of Canada across the northern tier and may set the stage for a 2-3 day period for Severe Wx across the central Plains/MW as a boundary will likely set up.  I've seen a similar situation in previous LRC cycles and this one has caught my eye.  The forthcoming pattern resembles more of LRC cycle #1 but it also may trend towards some of the signature storms we have seen this season.  Warm moist air coming up from the Gulf will clash with a trough swinging through the northern Tier later this month.  Something to keep an eye on going forward.

 

[Tom]

Boy, you guys out in NE/KS are going to get a taste of summer on Sat which bleeds east into the MW on Sunday.  1st 80's of the season on the table for a lot of you who've been waiting way to long after a cold winter.

[Niko]

Rain Rain, go away! is the ol' say and thats how we all feel here in SEMI w continuous water falling from the sky. Good news is that next week looks "Fantastiko" w readings in the 60s and maybe one or 2 70s, along w sunshine.

[Niko]

Currently rainy n windy w cold temps. Current readings are in the upper 30s (39F). Just to my north, snow is falling if you can believe that. UGH! Very raw day shaping up for today and tomorrow. It gets betta though as we move forward.

[westMJim]

Folklore has it that Good Friday is a good time to plant your garden. Well even with Good Friday this year being this late in the season it is still way too early for much planting in our area. Maybe frost hardy plants would be fine. Today is a cloudy and rather cool day while it has been wet so far this month (4.9” at Grand Rapids) it is a long ways off from the 11.10” that fell in 2013 and even in 2011 7.19” fell and in 2017 6.27” of rain and snow fell so there have been some very wet April’s in the recent past.

[jaster220]

Rain Rain, go away! is the ol' say and thats how we all feel here in SEMI w continuous water falling from the sky. Good news is that next week looks "Fantastiko" w readings in the 60s and maybe one or 2 70s, along w sunshine.

 

Yeah, ofc we finally get a great synoptic set-up AFTER winter's done..

 

[jaster220]

Good Friday all!  It's been a windy night over here as I could here the winds gusts occasionally wake me up in the middle of the night.  We have a heavy overcast, temp of 41F, WC 31F, Winds out of the N 25 G 36 mph...not a pretty day and waiting for that sunshine to return later today.  What is certainly going to return are those warmer temps and back-2-back 70's for Chicago on Sun/Mon.  The tables have turned for the better and we are finally seeing better wx on the horizon.

 

While the central Plains and MW has lacked on the severe wx threat, I'm seeing a set up in the longer range that could change that.  During the last weekend of the month (27th-30th), the models are showing a potent cold shot coming down out of Canada across the northern tier and may set the stage for a 2-3 day period for Severe Wx across the central Plains/MW as a boundary will likely set up.  I've seen a similar situation in previous LRC cycles and this one has caught my eye.  The forthcoming pattern resembles more of LRC cycle #1 but it also may trend towards some of the signature storms we have seen this season.  Warm moist air coming up from the Gulf will clash with a trough swinging through the northern Tier later this month.  Something to keep an eye on going forward.

 

 

I'd give an amen to that, even if it wasn't Good Friday. Hope your Easter's a good one amigo! 

[Niko]

Yeah, ofc we finally get a great synoptic set-up AFTER winter's done..

 

20190419 Futurecast maps.PNG

I saw that too....if this was Winter, we would be digging outta feet of snow.

[Niko]

Cloudy currently w dry conditions, most of the day, b4 another batch of hvy rain arrives. Temp at 39F.

[St Paul Storm]

65F and not a cloud in the sky. Forecasted high tomorrow is 71F.

[Niko]

Man, I just looked at the location where this Low is currently and it just amazes me that all Winter long, never did a pattern like this materialized at all. Instead, you would hear Local weathermen say that it will be a near miss or going way south or strong cutter. In any case, this would have been a gnarly pattern for Jaster and me had it been Winter.

[Hawkeye]

It is going to be a spectacular weekend.... near 70 Saturday and near 80 Sunday.

[Tom]

Rise and shine on this sunny, albeit chilly (37F) morning...Overnight data on both the EPS/GEFS are trending significantly colder starting next weekend across the northern half of the Sub Forum.  The North American Vortex part of the LRC will be cycling through at this time and the models are seeing more blocking across Canada and Greenland, thus pushing more cold air into the lower 48.  It was nice to see the models trying to paint an extended period of warmth throughout next week but its slowly fading away. What is not fading, however, is the very active pattern across the heartland.  You can betcha that if there is colder air lurking out of the north there will be frontal boundaries galore in this type of pattern later next weekend into the last week of April.

 

 

[Tom]

Forgot to mention...Happy 4/20!  On this day, I'd like to thank nature for providing me with CBD oil that has been a miraculous product from mother earth.  #naturecures

 

Do you feel more connected with nature nowadays???  I tell ya, every day I grow a stronger connection and I "feel it in my heart and my bones".  

[Hawkeye]

A few spots in eastern Iowa dropped into the upper 20s this morning.

[Tom]

Took a morning stroll and didn't realize how breezy (N 21 mph G 29 mph) it is out there.  It certainly has a bit of a bite to it (WC 37F) after enjoying some really nice weather of late.  Thankfully, the sun is shining bright, otherwise, it be pretty miserable to say the least...just ask Niko where he's stuck in a dreadful pattern today.

 

I did some more analyzing of some important data and LR indicators and what stands out was the idea that a piece of the Polar Vortex would split into North America one last final time.  I'm not sure when it was, but I did comment that I'd expect a trough to present itself across the northern portions of the Sub and it seems to me the models are heading that way.  I would not be surprised if a stronger signal continues showing up bc when you take a gander at this 10mb Strat forecast it does paint a picture of a more "troughy" look across S Canada with blocking up in the Arctic regions.  Could there be some early May snow across the North???  There is going to be quite a battle of the seasons to close out April and open up May.  #atmosphericfireworks

 

 

 

 

[OKwx2k4]

Forgot to mention...Happy 4/20! On this day, I'd like to thank nature for providing me with CBD oil that has been a miraculous product from mother earth. #naturecures

 

Do you feel more connected with nature nowadays??? I tell ya, every day I grow a stronger connection and I "feel it in my heart and my bones".

The end of marijuana prohibition and the federal government's right to oppress the poor and most oppressed in Oklahoma last year was one of the greatest restorations of individual liberty in US history. 81 years of oppressing the meek and poor ended because people figured out how to stand for themselves again and quit taking "no" and "you can't" for an answer. My state had become a state of captives. A state of depression and mental brokenness.

 

The scars that oppression and control left behind will fade. The prison state and the power of control and judgement of folks will continue to be broken every day. Minds will be restored. Hope will be restored. Truth is being restored. People are seeing things they couldn't for the very first time.

 

I don't necessarily glorify a plant, but I glorify the restorative power of individual liberty without false judgement, condemnation, and control any day and every day.

Highest power the law ever had was death and accusation.

That was proven on Good Friday. I celebrated that sacrifice to break the power of death and law yesterday.

On Sunday, I celebrate the One who broke the law of control and death to restore love, hope, faith and the law of liberty.

 

He paid for our freedom. I'll be forever grateful and humbled for what that means.

 

I love this group of men and women. You're all unique and very awesome people who haven't ever stopped caring about one another from all over these plains and lakes. Even though I've been pretty silent for awhile, I think of you folks often and am blessed to know this group.

 

Happy 4/20.

PS: In the words of Cross Canadian Ragweed many years ago in Stillwater, OK..."Smoke it if you got it".