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April 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

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#101
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 April 2019 - 09:22 PM

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Will have to watch the storms coming up. Could be a little windy for some people if the forecast changes. Still a few days out.
Atleast were going to be getting some rain.
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#102
El_Nina

Posted 01 April 2019 - 10:09 PM

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Detroit lake is low once again!
https://www.google.c...8LK2tvc&ampcf=1
I have to screenshot my photos otherwise they post sideways

#103
TT-SEA

Posted 01 April 2019 - 10:20 PM

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SEA did manage a high 70 today... same in North Bend.

 

Also 71 in Bellingham and 69 in Olympia.  


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#104
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 April 2019 - 10:24 PM

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Most heartbreaking pattern in history  :angry:

 

It'll flip one day.


Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 19 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 27 (Most recent: Dec 4)
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#105
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 April 2019 - 10:26 PM

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SEA did manage a high 70 today... same in North Bend.

Also 71 in Bellingham and 69 in Olympia.


From BC

Agassiz 70
Abbotsford 72
Hope 72
Pitt Meadows 73

#106
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 April 2019 - 10:28 PM

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Euro looks breezy this weekend

#107
TT-SEA

Posted 01 April 2019 - 10:28 PM

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00Z ECMWF looks pretty meager with the rain up here through Friday.

 

Tomorrow looks like a repeat of today...  some showers on Wednesday... Thursday looks dry and mild until the evening... and then not as much rain on Friday as previous runs and still close to 60.

 

We will see what it what shows for the weekend.  



#108
K%%

Posted 01 April 2019 - 10:34 PM

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It'll flip one day.


I’m just being hyperbolic, for sure it will. Just like I don’t anticipate a 1/10/17 repeat next year either. A February 2014 repeat would be fantastic.

"Man is made by his beliefs. As he believes, so he is."

 

-Bhagavad Gita

 

"The way I look at it, as long as you make it out of a battle alive, you're one step closer to fulfilling your dream."

 

-Seifer Almasy (VIII)


#109
TT-SEA

Posted 01 April 2019 - 10:43 PM

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ECMWF shows some decent rain up here on Saturday... particularly in the early morning.  

 

But Sunday looks partly sunny with just some scattered showers and close to 60 again.  



#110
TT-SEA

Posted 01 April 2019 - 10:54 PM

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Some more rain on Monday as well.

Total rain over the next week...

ecmwf-tprecip-washington-31.png


About 1.5 inches in the Seattle area... certainly needed but nothing extreme.

Looks like pretty typical early April fare... with a some days being partly sunny and showery with SW flow. Have not had much of that lately.

 

Dries out after Monday with that weak trough and then another ULL heading down into CA late in the run.   



#111
Tyler Mode

Posted 02 April 2019 - 04:45 AM

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Interesting to note that through March, my station in Vancouver has already had more freezes (41) than 8 of the last 23 calendar years.



#112
Esquimalt

Posted 02 April 2019 - 05:54 AM

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Some more rain on Monday as well.

Total rain over the next week...

ecmwf-tprecip-washington-31.png


About 1.5 inches in the Seattle area... certainly needed but nothing extreme.

Looks like pretty typical early April fare... with a some days being partly sunny and showery with SW flow. Have not had much of that lately.

Dries out after Monday with that weak trough and then another ULL heading down into CA late in the run.


My area gets next to nothing

#113
TacomaWaWx

Posted 02 April 2019 - 06:11 AM

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It will definitely be at least breezy for many places. Should definitely watch to see how the low pressure develops and moves the next couple days. Hopefully it doesn’t end up bombing out or hitting us directly. Wind storms can be cool but we’ve already had a few strong wind events here this season not exactly looking for more. There’s been a lot of damage to local trees and underbrush due to heavy snowfall and winds from this seasons storms, and not just in Tacoma. Last time I can remember seeing a lot of tree damage like this is when the ice storm of 2012 occurred. As for rain it just looks like average rain no soaker really but anything we can get is needed.

#114
Omegaraptor

Posted 02 April 2019 - 06:17 AM

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I hope Omak gets rain. They’re the only Eastern WA station I’ve seen under 2” YTD, and the developing drought is centered there. Luckily the forecast and models show a decent amount of rainfall there by Eastern WA standards.
No rain here until Hour 258.

#115
TT-SEA

Posted 02 April 2019 - 06:48 AM

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Beautiful morning with the sun rising below a deck of darker clouds making for a nice contrast...

 

20190402-074603.jpg


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#116
MossMan

Posted 02 April 2019 - 06:52 AM

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Mostly clear this morning...was not expecting that but I will take it!

#117
Jesse

Posted 02 April 2019 - 07:33 AM

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Light rain and 52 here this morning.



#118
Jesse

Posted 02 April 2019 - 07:38 AM

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Mild night. The low of 54 at PDX would beat the record warm minimum for the date of 52, set in 1961.



#119
TacomaWaWx

Posted 02 April 2019 - 07:47 AM

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Probably wouldn’t be as strong as the winds on 12/20/18 and 1/6/19 but it’s something to keep an eye on. Forecast for winds are always tricky and a few miles difference can change the forecast entirely plus it’s 96 hours out still.

Attached Files



#120
TT-SEA

Posted 02 April 2019 - 07:49 AM

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System coming in Thursday is looking slower in recent runs... likely going to be another fairly warm, dry day up here.



#121
Jesse

Posted 02 April 2019 - 07:51 AM

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System coming in Thursday is looking slower in recent runs... likely going to be another fairly warm, dry day up here.


Man, it would seem like everything is always trending warmer and drier. Except when it’s not. Then you basically just don’t mention any model runs for a few days. ;)

#122
TT-SEA

Posted 02 April 2019 - 07:57 AM

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Man, it would seem like everything is always trending warmer and drier. Except when it’s not. Then you basically just don’t mention any model runs for a few days. ;)

 

 

It would seem like everything is always trending colder and wetter if I only looked at your posts.    

 

I would have had no idea how beautiful this past weekend ended up being... under our mythical ridge.    You never mentioned it after the cold and wet troughing fell apart.

 

I guess maybe we all tend to focus on things we find interesting?



#123
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 April 2019 - 08:02 AM

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Ended up with 0.19" of rain yesterday. About 0.2" so far today. Not a bad start to April. It would be nice to have normal rainfall the next 2-3 months. Doesn't need to be a washout. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#124
Jesse

Posted 02 April 2019 - 08:06 AM

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06z ensemble looks warmer and drier than previous runs.

Attached File  F19CC0AB-E902-4CE6-9673-D5B88BC8D977.png   37.47KB   0 downloads

#125
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 April 2019 - 08:08 AM

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The nourishing rain of the Lord falling this morning. Warm and wet. A perfect recipe for a ripe green up.


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Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#126
TT-SEA

Posted 02 April 2019 - 08:08 AM

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06z ensemble looks warmer and drier than previous runs.

attachicon.gifF19CC0AB-E902-4CE6-9673-D5B88BC8D977.png

 

:)

 

Nice job!



#127
Jesse

Posted 02 April 2019 - 08:08 AM

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It would seem like everything is always trending colder and wetter if I only looked at your posts.

I would have had no idea how beautiful this past weekend ended up being.

I guess maybe we all tend to focus on things we find interesting?


My pictures of the LNF Santiam captured the beautiful weekend pretty well. Although they don’t include a Safeway parking lot so maybe you didn’t find them as interesting. ;)

#128
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 April 2019 - 08:09 AM

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06z ensemble looks warmer and drier than previous runs.

attachicon.gifF19CC0AB-E902-4CE6-9673-D5B88BC8D977.png

 

We are coming off of back to back below average months in a multi-year nino. There is about a 0% chance April temps are below average. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#129
TT-SEA

Posted 02 April 2019 - 08:10 AM

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The nourishing rain of the Lord falling this morning. Warm and wet. A perfect recipe for a ripe green up.

 

I am really looking forward to this... going to be a transformation to lush coming soon.



#130
Jesse

Posted 02 April 2019 - 08:10 AM

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We are coming off of back to back below average months in a multi-year nino. There is about a 0% chance April temps are below average.


Tim will tell!

#131
Cloud

Posted 02 April 2019 - 08:12 AM

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There’s like a shield over Seattle-north or something. Last 24 hours, the cloud cover just gets obliterated as it tries to creep this way.

The ridge is refusing to give in!

#132
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 April 2019 - 08:12 AM

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Sunday looks very wet. 

 

gfs_apcpn24_nwus_21.png


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Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#133
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 April 2019 - 08:14 AM

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Tim will tell!

 

You know he's going to rub it in! ;)

 

I liked Tim's pics, North Bend is gorgeous. If I made like 350K a year maybe I could afford to live there. The LNF is basically my backyard, enjoyed the pics. It will be at its peak beauty in May and June. The North Fork flowing high and clear after a late spring rain under a drippy rainforest canopy is one of my favorite childhood memories. 


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Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#134
Jesse

Posted 02 April 2019 - 08:20 AM

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The LNF is basically my backyard, enjoyed the pics. It will be at its peak beauty in May and June. The North Fork flowing high and clear after a late spring rain under a drippy rainforest canopy is one of my favorite childhood memories.


I really like that whole corridor during a normally wet late spring/early summer. The stretch up to Marion Forks looks and feels like fern gully on a misty early June day.

#135
Cloud

Posted 02 April 2019 - 08:22 AM

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Sunday looks very wet.

gfs_apcpn24_nwus_21.png


Somehow, some way Puget Sound is in the 0.25” range. Disappointing.

#136
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 April 2019 - 08:28 AM

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I really like that whole corridor during a normally wet late spring/early summer. The stretch up to Marion Forks looks and feels like fern gully on a misty early June day.

 

There is a nice simple little campground up at Marion Forks. Even during the height of summer it is rarely full. It is a nice base camp for day hikes and fishing. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#137
TacomaWaWx

Posted 02 April 2019 - 08:31 AM

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Somehow, some way Puget Sound is in the 0.25” range. Disappointing.

I think we will end up being alright in the rain department, at some point we’re going to get some soaking rain. I don’t think we will see as much rain this April as last April but I think it should be enough to make up for the dryness recently...atleast I hope it does.

#138
Cloud

Posted 02 April 2019 - 08:32 AM

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April 6-7 appears to be nice date last 3 years for some decent. This year will be no exception.
Latest UW-WRF is showing the deep center low closer to the coast and gives PDX a good blow. Still windy in Seattle.

This should get K12 going.

One thing to note: it has not been consistent, previous runs had shown this being up in BC.

Attached Files


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#139
TT-SEA

Posted 02 April 2019 - 08:36 AM

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The pattern that is favorable for SW flow and heavy rain does not seem to last very long... here is a week from today on the 12Z GFS.

 

gfs_z500a_namer_31.png



#140
Cloud

Posted 02 April 2019 - 08:36 AM

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I think we will end up being alright in the rain department, at some point we’re going to get some soaking rain. I don’t think we will see as much rain this April as last April but I think it should be enough to make up for the dryness recently...atleast I hope it does.


Last April was a soaker so I’m not expecting a repeat. There is also a stark drop off in rain averages between March and April so if we can squeeze out an 1-2” or so this month I’ll be happy.

#141
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 April 2019 - 08:39 AM

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Much of next week looks fairly dry with some troughing late week.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#142
TT-SEA

Posted 02 April 2019 - 08:39 AM

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Somehow, some way Puget Sound is in the 0.25” range. Disappointing.

 

Still much wetter than the 12Z FV3 for Sunday...

 

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_us_22.png



#143
Cloud

Posted 02 April 2019 - 08:44 AM

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Still much wetter than the 12Z FV3 for Sunday...

fv3p_mslp_pcpn_us_22.png


Woah woah woah!!! Since when do you cite other models than the Euro? ;)

I kid.

#144
TacomaWaWx

Posted 02 April 2019 - 08:44 AM

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April 6-7 appears to be nice date last 3 years for some decent. This year will be no exception.
Latest UW-WRF is showing the deep center low closer to the coast and gives PDX a good blow. Still windy in Seattle.

This should get K12 going.

One thing to note: it has not been consistent, previous runs had shown this being up in BC.

Get the feeling it will be windy again on the same day it has the past couple years this year. Still lots of time for the forecast to change. Will be a step under the storms we had on 12/20/18 and 1/6/19 if it ends up verifying. It’s interesting that it could be 3 years in a row on the same day that we see similar storms.

#145
Jesse

Posted 02 April 2019 - 08:46 AM

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Woah woah woah!!! Since when do you cite other models than the Euro? ;)

I kid.


When they better fit a narrative. ;)
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#146
TT-SEA

Posted 02 April 2019 - 08:48 AM

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Woah woah woah!!! Since when do you cite other models than the Euro? ;)

I kid.

 

 

Good point!

 

I just noticed that the FV3 did not agree with the GFS with that rain event on Sunday.    00Z ECMWF was somewhat similar with the main rain band way to the south and just partly sunny with scattered light showers up here.

 

ecmwf-precip-06-conus2-25.png



#147
Cloud

Posted 02 April 2019 - 08:50 AM

Cloud

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Get the feeling it will be windy again on the same day it has the past couple years this year. Still lots of time for the forecast to change. Will be a step under the storms we had on 12/20/18 and 1/6/19 if it ends up verifying. It’s interesting that it could be 3 years in a row on the same day that we see similar storms.


Per Scott S. the Euro is showing 40-45mph Friday night.

Still days out.

#148
Front Ranger

Posted 02 April 2019 - 08:51 AM

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We are coming off of back to back below average months in a multi-year nino. There is about a 0% chance April temps are below average. 

 

I recall similar posts about the odds of February being cold/snowy...


Low. Solar.


#149
TT-SEA

Posted 02 April 2019 - 08:55 AM

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I recall similar posts about the odds of February being cold/snowy...

 

 

I was going to say the same thing.   

 

I believe we have thrown climo out the window right??   



#150
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 April 2019 - 08:55 AM

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I recall similar posts about the odds of February being cold/snowy...

 

Pretty awesome we managed to beat the odds!


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill!