[TacomaWaWx]

Will have to watch the storms coming up. Could be a little windy for some people if the forecast changes. Still a few days out.
Atleast were going to be getting some rain.

[El_Nina]

Detroit lake is low once again!
https://www.google.c...8LK2tvc&ampcf=1

[TT-SEA]

SEA did manage a high 70 today... same in North Bend.

 

Also 71 in Bellingham and 69 in Olympia.  

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Most heartbreaking pattern in history 

 

It'll flip one day.

[ShawniganLake]

SEA did manage a high 70 today... same in North Bend.

Also 71 in Bellingham and 69 in Olympia.

From BC

Agassiz 70
Abbotsford 72
Hope 72
Pitt Meadows 73

[ShawniganLake]

Euro looks breezy this weekend

[TT-SEA]

00Z ECMWF looks pretty meager with the rain up here through Friday.

 

Tomorrow looks like a repeat of today...  some showers on Wednesday... Thursday looks dry and mild until the evening... and then not as much rain on Friday as previous runs and still close to 60.

 

We will see what it what shows for the weekend.  

[K%%]

It'll flip one day.

I’m just being hyperbolic, for sure it will. Just like I don’t anticipate a 1/10/17 repeat next year either. A February 2014 repeat would be fantastic.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF shows some decent rain up here on Saturday... particularly in the early morning.  

 

But Sunday looks partly sunny with just some scattered showers and close to 60 again.  

[TT-SEA]

Some more rain on Monday as well.

Total rain over the next week...




About 1.5 inches in the Seattle area... certainly needed but nothing extreme.

Looks like pretty typical early April fare... with a some days being partly sunny and showery with SW flow. Have not had much of that lately.

 

Dries out after Monday with that weak trough and then another ULL heading down into CA late in the run.   

[Tyler Mode]

Interesting to note that through March, my station in Vancouver has already had more freezes (41) than 8 of the last 23 calendar years.

[Esquimalt]

Some more rain on Monday as well.

Total rain over the next week...




About 1.5 inches in the Seattle area... certainly needed but nothing extreme.

Looks like pretty typical early April fare... with a some days being partly sunny and showery with SW flow. Have not had much of that lately.

Dries out after Monday with that weak trough and then another ULL heading down into CA late in the run.

My area gets next to nothing

[TacomaWaWx]

It will definitely be at least breezy for many places. Should definitely watch to see how the low pressure develops and moves the next couple days. Hopefully it doesn’t end up bombing out or hitting us directly. Wind storms can be cool but we’ve already had a few strong wind events here this season not exactly looking for more. There’s been a lot of damage to local trees and underbrush due to heavy snowfall and winds from this seasons storms, and not just in Tacoma. Last time I can remember seeing a lot of tree damage like this is when the ice storm of 2012 occurred. As for rain it just looks like average rain no soaker really but anything we can get is needed.

[Omegaraptor]

I hope Omak gets rain. They’re the only Eastern WA station I’ve seen under 2” YTD, and the developing drought is centered there. Luckily the forecast and models show a decent amount of rainfall there by Eastern WA standards.

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful morning with the sun rising below a deck of darker clouds making for a nice contrast...

 

[MossMan]

Mostly clear this morning...was not expecting that but I will take it!

[Jesse]

Light rain and 52 here this morning.

[Jesse]

Mild night. The low of 54 at PDX would beat the record warm minimum for the date of 52, set in 1961.

[TacomaWaWx]

Probably wouldn’t be as strong as the winds on 12/20/18 and 1/6/19 but it’s something to keep an eye on. Forecast for winds are always tricky and a few miles difference can change the forecast entirely plus it’s 96 hours out still.

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[TT-SEA]

System coming in Thursday is looking slower in recent runs... likely going to be another fairly warm, dry day up here.

[Jesse]

System coming in Thursday is looking slower in recent runs... likely going to be another fairly warm, dry day up here.

Man, it would seem like everything is always trending warmer and drier. Except when it’s not. Then you basically just don’t mention any model runs for a few days.

[TT-SEA]

Man, it would seem like everything is always trending warmer and drier. Except when it’s not. Then you basically just don’t mention any model runs for a few days.

 

 

It would seem like everything is always trending colder and wetter if I only looked at your posts.    

 

I would have had no idea how beautiful this past weekend ended up being... under our mythical ridge.    You never mentioned it after the cold and wet troughing fell apart.

 

I guess maybe we all tend to focus on things we find interesting?

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Ended up with 0.19" of rain yesterday. About 0.2" so far today. Not a bad start to April. It would be nice to have normal rainfall the next 2-3 months. Doesn't need to be a washout. 

[Jesse]

06z ensemble looks warmer and drier than previous runs.

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[SilverFallsAndrew]

The nourishing rain of the Lord falling this morning. Warm and wet. A perfect recipe for a ripe green up.

[TT-SEA]

06z ensemble looks warmer and drier than previous runs.

F19CC0AB-E902-4CE6-9673-D5B88BC8D977.png

 

 

Nice job!

[Jesse]

It would seem like everything is always trending colder and wetter if I only looked at your posts.

I would have had no idea how beautiful this past weekend ended up being.

I guess maybe we all tend to focus on things we find interesting?

My pictures of the LNF Santiam captured the beautiful weekend pretty well. Although they don’t include a Safeway parking lot so maybe you didn’t find them as interesting.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

06z ensemble looks warmer and drier than previous runs.

F19CC0AB-E902-4CE6-9673-D5B88BC8D977.png

 

We are coming off of back to back below average months in a multi-year nino. There is about a 0% chance April temps are below average. 

[TT-SEA]

The nourishing rain of the Lord falling this morning. Warm and wet. A perfect recipe for a ripe green up.

 

I am really looking forward to this... going to be a transformation to lush coming soon.

[Jesse]

We are coming off of back to back below average months in a multi-year nino. There is about a 0% chance April temps are below average.

Tim will tell!

[Cloud]

There’s like a shield over Seattle-north or something. Last 24 hours, the cloud cover just gets obliterated as it tries to creep this way.

The ridge is refusing to give in!

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sunday looks very wet. 

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Tim will tell!

 

You know he's going to rub it in!

 

I liked Tim's pics, North Bend is gorgeous. If I made like 350K a year maybe I could afford to live there. The LNF is basically my backyard, enjoyed the pics. It will be at its peak beauty in May and June. The North Fork flowing high and clear after a late spring rain under a drippy rainforest canopy is one of my favorite childhood memories. 

[Jesse]

The LNF is basically my backyard, enjoyed the pics. It will be at its peak beauty in May and June. The North Fork flowing high and clear after a late spring rain under a drippy rainforest canopy is one of my favorite childhood memories.

I really like that whole corridor during a normally wet late spring/early summer. The stretch up to Marion Forks looks and feels like fern gully on a misty early June day.

[Cloud]

Sunday looks very wet.

Somehow, some way Puget Sound is in the 0.25” range. Disappointing.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I really like that whole corridor during a normally wet late spring/early summer. The stretch up to Marion Forks looks and feels like fern gully on a misty early June day.

 

There is a nice simple little campground up at Marion Forks. Even during the height of summer it is rarely full. It is a nice base camp for day hikes and fishing. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Somehow, some way Puget Sound is in the 0.25” range. Disappointing.

I think we will end up being alright in the rain department, at some point we’re going to get some soaking rain. I don’t think we will see as much rain this April as last April but I think it should be enough to make up for the dryness recently...atleast I hope it does.

[Cloud]

April 6-7 appears to be nice date last 3 years for some decent. This year will be no exception.
Latest UW-WRF is showing the deep center low closer to the coast and gives PDX a good blow. Still windy in Seattle.

This should get K12 going.

One thing to note: it has not been consistent, previous runs had shown this being up in BC.

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[TT-SEA]

The pattern that is favorable for SW flow and heavy rain does not seem to last very long... here is a week from today on the 12Z GFS.

 

[Cloud]

I think we will end up being alright in the rain department, at some point we’re going to get some soaking rain. I don’t think we will see as much rain this April as last April but I think it should be enough to make up for the dryness recently...atleast I hope it does.

Last April was a soaker so I’m not expecting a repeat. There is also a stark drop off in rain averages between March and April so if we can squeeze out an 1-2” or so this month I’ll be happy.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Much of next week looks fairly dry with some troughing late week.

[TT-SEA]

Somehow, some way Puget Sound is in the 0.25” range. Disappointing.

 

Still much wetter than the 12Z FV3 for Sunday...

 

[Cloud]

Still much wetter than the 12Z FV3 for Sunday...

Woah woah woah!!! Since when do you cite other models than the Euro?

I kid.

[TacomaWaWx]

April 6-7 appears to be nice date last 3 years for some decent. This year will be no exception.
Latest UW-WRF is showing the deep center low closer to the coast and gives PDX a good blow. Still windy in Seattle.

This should get K12 going.

One thing to note: it has not been consistent, previous runs had shown this being up in BC.

Get the feeling it will be windy again on the same day it has the past couple years this year. Still lots of time for the forecast to change. Will be a step under the storms we had on 12/20/18 and 1/6/19 if it ends up verifying. It’s interesting that it could be 3 years in a row on the same day that we see similar storms.

[Jesse]

Woah woah woah!!! Since when do you cite other models than the Euro?

I kid.

When they better fit a narrative.

[TT-SEA]

Woah woah woah!!! Since when do you cite other models than the Euro?

I kid.

 

 

Good point!

 

I just noticed that the FV3 did not agree with the GFS with that rain event on Sunday.    00Z ECMWF was somewhat similar with the main rain band way to the south and just partly sunny with scattered light showers up here.

 

[Cloud]

Get the feeling it will be windy again on the same day it has the past couple years this year. Still lots of time for the forecast to change. Will be a step under the storms we had on 12/20/18 and 1/6/19 if it ends up verifying. It’s interesting that it could be 3 years in a row on the same day that we see similar storms.

Per Scott S. the Euro is showing 40-45mph Friday night.

Still days out.

[Front Ranger]

We are coming off of back to back below average months in a multi-year nino. There is about a 0% chance April temps are below average. 

 

I recall similar posts about the odds of February being cold/snowy...

[TT-SEA]

I recall similar posts about the odds of February being cold/snowy...

 

 

I was going to say the same thing.   

 

I believe we have thrown climo out the window right??   

[SilverFallsAndrew]

I recall similar posts about the odds of February being cold/snowy...

 

Pretty awesome we managed to beat the odds!