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April 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW


Omegaraptor

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We absolutely need the rain. Looks like the upcoming week will feature lots of November like weather we really need that.

My favorite type have always been AR. Don’t know if we have had an AR since the rainy season. Maybe there was 1 or 2 early in the season? At this point though I’ll take any kind of rain.

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Said it in the March thread accidentally, but RIP yard work for a while.  Models have the S Valley being rainy enough at some point every day for the next 2 weeks that it will be unfeasible to do the mowing.  I just mowed 2 days ago and it's already almost as tall as it was.  Not looking forward to trying to mow grass that will be a foot tall or more in the back half of the month.

 

We need the rain but it would be nice to have one 24 hr period to be able to get something done outside in the next 14 days.

 

I'm not sure of the year, but I remember there was at some point 3 straight weeks in April-May with no days being feasible to mow. Had to go and fill up the gas can in the middle of mowing because the push mower used all of it.  Stalled out every 10 feet or less with too much wet grass on the one day there was even a small chance to do it, and then it was like another 2 weeks without being able to do it again.

 

There are almost always breaks in the rain in April.    For example... the 12Z ECMWF showed that Sunday and Monday will be almost totally dry down there other than just a few random light showers.

 

But mowing the lawn in April is often a battle with wet grass anyways.   

 

I completely understand what you are saying about getting meaningful breaks and being able to do yardwork without being drenched.     But you can't really complain about drought for a couple years and then start complaining about rain if it lasts more than a few days.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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There are almost always breaks in the rain in April.    For example... the 12Z ECMWF showed Sunday and Monday will be almost totally dry down there other than just a few random light showers.

 

But mowing the lawn in April is often a battle with wet grass anyways.   

 

I completely understand what you are saying about getting meaningful breaks and being able to do yardwork without being drenched.     But you can't really complain about drought for a couple years and then start complaining about rain if it lasts more than a few days.

 

Completely agree with your last paragraph. I want it to rain and rain where we consider building an ark.

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Completely agree with your last paragraph. I want it to rain and rain where we consider building an ark.

 

 

You might be surprised to know that I am big fan of focused heavy rain periods.    

 

It might be anecdotal... but it seems like we are usually rewarded with extended periods dry weather afterwards.       

 

Perfection to me is a month that is wetter than normal but with lots of sun and warm days as well.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Said it in the March thread accidentally, but RIP yard work for a while. Models have the S Valley being rainy enough at some point every day for the next 2 weeks that it will be unfeasible to do the mowing. I just mowed 2 days ago and it's already almost as tall as it was. Not looking forward to trying to mow grass that will be a foot tall or more in the back half of the month.

 

We need the rain but it would be nice to have one 24 hr period to be able to get something done outside in the next 14 days.

 

I'm not sure of the year, but I remember there was at some point 3 straight weeks in April-May with no days being feasible to mow. Had to go and fill up the gas can in the middle of mowing because the push mower used all of it. Stalled out every 10 feet or less with too much wet grass on the one day there was even a small chance to do it, and then it was like another 2 weeks without being able to do it again.

Probably won’t be that rainy.

 

It’s April. Even during wet periods, multi-day stretches of unbroken rainfall are pretty rare.

 

Oh and something something new normal.

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You might be surprised to know that I am big fan of focused heavy rain periods.    

 

It might be anecdotal... but it seems like we are usually rewarded with extended periods dry weather afterwards.       

 

Perfection to me is a month that is wetter than normal but with lots of sun and warm days as well.

 

The law of averages still applies even in weather as the scale of balance does not typically tip in one direction over a period of time. One could argue the dry stretches we’ve been experiencing the past few years is due to wetter patterns in the past. We will once enter a period where it will be wet again in the long run. I could keep going but then we’ll go into a climate discussion

 

Same thing can be said in short term though law of averages do not work as well due to sample size. Only thing I can think of recently is record cold and snow in Feb to only follow by near 80F temps.

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This is an interesting development on the GFS.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_15.png

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"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Don't begrudge Eugene a little rain.  We're so far behind, it would take years to catch up.

Oh not at all, was having a little fun. I’m glad Eugene is getting a head start, I think they’ll be plenty of rain to go around region-wise in the coming days.

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It’s same stinking pattern that produced the Eugene snow lol. TREND NORTH!!

 

Most heartbreaking pattern in history  :angry:

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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This is an interesting development on the GFS.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_15.png

The UW-WRF yesterday showed a potent storm for the 7th. It’s just too bad the center of the storm is waayyy offshore and north. Still could produce some decent wind along the coast.

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April 7th. Of course.

 

April 7th has been very auspicious the last two years. Unusually strong April low pressure systems on both dates for the past two years. Kinda interesting.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Very envious of the rain down south this evening.

 

Really coming down. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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April 7th has been very auspicious the last two years. Unusually strong April low pressure systems on both dates for the past two years. Kinda interesting.

Indeed.

 

April 7th 2018 SEA produced nearly an inch of rain though it wasn’t as windy.

 

April 7th 2017 Was a good one. 40mph+ peak gust and it was blowing for most of the morning hours

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Indeed.

April 7th 2018 SEA produced nearly an inch of rain though it wasn’t as windy.

April 7th 2017 Was a good one. 40mph+ peak gust and it was blowing for most of the morning hours

4/7/17 was a great one in my area. Gusts 60+ for an hour or two.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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Will have to watch the storms coming up. Could be a little windy for some people if the forecast changes. Still a few days out.

Atleast were going to be getting some rain.

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Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Most heartbreaking pattern in history  :angry:

 

It'll flip one day.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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00Z ECMWF looks pretty meager with the rain up here through Friday.

 

Tomorrow looks like a repeat of today...  some showers on Wednesday... Thursday looks dry and mild until the evening... and then not as much rain on Friday as previous runs and still close to 60.

 

We will see what it what shows for the weekend.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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It'll flip one day.

I’m just being hyperbolic, for sure it will. Just like I don’t anticipate a 1/10/17 repeat next year either. A February 2014 repeat would be fantastic.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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ECMWF shows some decent rain up here on Saturday... particularly in the early morning.  

 

But Sunday looks partly sunny with just some scattered showers and close to 60 again.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Some more rain on Monday as well.

Total rain over the next week...

ecmwf-tprecip-washington-31.png


About 1.5 inches in the Seattle area... certainly needed but nothing extreme.

Looks like pretty typical early April fare... with a some days being partly sunny and showery with SW flow. Have not had much of that lately.

 

Dries out after Monday with that weak trough and then another ULL heading down into CA late in the run.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Some more rain on Monday as well.

 

Total rain over the next week...

 

ecmwf-tprecip-washington-31.png

 

 

About 1.5 inches in the Seattle area... certainly needed but nothing extreme.

 

Looks like pretty typical early April fare... with a some days being partly sunny and showery with SW flow. Have not had much of that lately.

 

Dries out after Monday with that weak trough and then another ULL heading down into CA late in the run.

My area gets next to nothing

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It will definitely be at least breezy for many places. Should definitely watch to see how the low pressure develops and moves the next couple days. Hopefully it doesn’t end up bombing out or hitting us directly. Wind storms can be cool but we’ve already had a few strong wind events here this season not exactly looking for more. There’s been a lot of damage to local trees and underbrush due to heavy snowfall and winds from this seasons storms, and not just in Tacoma. Last time I can remember seeing a lot of tree damage like this is when the ice storm of 2012 occurred. As for rain it just looks like average rain no soaker really but anything we can get is needed.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Probably wouldn’t be as strong as the winds on 12/20/18 and 1/6/19 but it’s something to keep an eye on. Forecast for winds are always tricky and a few miles difference can change the forecast entirely plus it’s 96 hours out still.

9D18A03D-C498-4263-9D90-AB48AA124E40.jpeg

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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System coming in Thursday is looking slower in recent runs... likely going to be another fairly warm, dry day up here.

Man, it would seem like everything is always trending warmer and drier. Except when it’s not. Then you basically just don’t mention any model runs for a few days. ;)

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