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April 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW


Omegaraptor

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The North Bend station was warmer and even drier...

 

Avg Max 56.7

Avg Min 35.0

Mean 45.2

Precip 1.71"

 

They don't measure snow there.

 

8 days with lows below freezing... all before 3/10.     The first 9 days were cold with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s... started warming up on 3/10 with a high of 54.

 

We had a 35/17 day on the 4th and a 66/42 day on the 19th for our coldest and warmest days of the month. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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We had a 35/17 day on the 4th and a 66/42 day on the 19th for our coldest and warmest days of the month. 

 

38/27 on the 4th was the coldest day.

 

78/52 was the warmest day of the month up here... also on the 19th.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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38/27 on the 4th was the coldest day.

 

78/52 was the warmest day of the month up here... also on the 19th.

 

We had solid snow cover through the 19th and there was still quite a bit around for a few days after so that undoubtedly kept temps down a bit during the warm spell. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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We had solid snow cover through the 19th and there was still quite a bit around for a few days after so that undoubtedly kept temps down a bit during the warm spell.

Yeah my buddy out in the eatonville/graham area had solid snowcover until about the same time. On the 18th most places around his house had 6” atleast on the ground with more in the shaded areas too. Pretty crazy how long the snow lasted in lower elevations.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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There would still be some.

 

But what the GFS shows is not really even related to shadowing on Sunday... the main moisture plume is just a little too far to the south and east.    In a true shadowing scenario... you would see heavy precip on the Olympic Peninsula as well.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_nwus_22.png

 

 

12Z ECMWF looks a little farther south and east with the moisture plume on Sunday... but its close to what the GFS shows.

 

ecmwf-precip-06-nw-23.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Still wet down here. I remain skeptical that this cooler and rainy pattern will continue past the 20th or so. Our new normal is a blast furnace from late April-late September.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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12Z ECMWF looks a little farther south and east with the moisture plume on Sunday... but its close to what the GFS shows.

 

ecmwf-precip-06-nw-23.png

I’d send y’all some of our precip if I could. We have hit the jackpot for well over a month now.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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12Z ECMWF shows a similar pattern late next week to the pattern that has resulted in the generally dry and warm weather recently:

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_11.png

 

ecmwf_T850a_namer_11.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Reading between the lines I can at least infer with some degree of confidence that the 12z Euro is not significantly warmer/drier than the 00z.

 

 

Quite a bit drier up here than the 00Z run.   Only shows about an inch of rain total in the Seattle area over the next 10 days compared to about 1.6 inches on the 00Z run.   Its basically dry after Monday which is similar to the last run.

 

It is wetter in central and southern Oregon though compared to the 00Z run.   It shows 3.9 inches in Eugene over the next 10 days while the 00Z run showed 2.7 inches.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Amazing to see PDX hasn't received measurable rain yet. Salem is at about 1/2" over the past 24 hours now. 

 

1.09" in Eugene over the past 30 hours.

 

There was some light drizzle this morning in this part of Portland. I looked at the airport data and it’s a straight line of T’s every hour.

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Reading between the lines I can at least infer with some degree of confidence that the 12z Euro is not significantly warmer/drier than the 00z.

You are correct. Essentially unchanged from 00z.

 

Timing of waves is slightly slower after D7 so there’s a longer gap between fronts but extrapolating would yield a similar result to 00z.

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Lots of troughy 12z EPS members. Pattern eventually evolves into a more progressive wavecycle so a more active trough-ridge-trough sequence develops over the PNW.

 

Large scale theme remains the same in the long range. Active wavetrain/-NAO under a dynamic final warming and the corresponding return to equatorward wave activity fluxes. The aforementioned pattern fits these boundary conditions.

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You are correct. Essentially unchanged from 00z.

 

Timing of waves is slightly slower after D7 so there’s a longer gap between fronts but extrapolating would yield a similar result to 00z.

Yeah, I hadn’t gotten a chance to check until just now. But sometimes it's the posts that aren’t made here can be some of the most informative.

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Lots of troughy 12z EPS members. Pattern eventually evolves into a more progressive wavecycle so a more active trough-ridge-trough sequence develops over the PNW.

 

Large scale theme remains the same in the long range. Active wavetrain/-NAO under a dynamic final warming and the corresponding return to equatorward wave activity fluxes. The aforementioned pattern fits these boundary conditions.

A variable pattern in the long range sounds perfect. Hopefully we can get some decent rainfall under our belts between now and then.

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You are correct. Essentially unchanged from 00z.

 

Timing of waves is slightly slower after D7 so there’s a longer gap between fronts but extrapolating would yield a similar result to 00z.

 

 

Are you looking at the rainfall map for WA and OR?   

 

Because that is what we are comparing and what Jesse was referring to... since that is what matters to him.  

 

He was saying that it must be as wet or wetter since I did not reference it.   But it was actually drier up here and I had just not mentioned it yet.    It is drier from Portland northward.

 

00Z run...

 

ecmwf-tprecip-nw-41-1.png

 

 

And new 12Z run...

 

ecmwf-tprecip-nw-41-2.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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War of Interpretation.

 

Not really. Jesse was referring to me... and his post earlier about me only mentioning when the models are drier and warmer. He assumed that the ECMWF must not be drier or warmer because I did not post about it. Fair assumption. But I just had not had time yet. It is actually quite a bit drier up here. I am a little surprised actually... an inch of rain over the next 10 days is not exactly wet considering the long dry period we have experienced.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Are you looking at the rainfall map for WA and OR?

 

Because that is what we are comparing and what Jesse was referring to... since that is what matters to him.

 

He was saying that it must be as wet or wetter since I did not reference it. But it was actually drier up here and I had just not mentioned it yet. It is drier from Portland northward.

 

00Z run...

 

ecmwf-tprecip-nw-41-1.png

 

 

And new 12Z run...

 

ecmwf-tprecip-nw-41-2.png

How does that contradict anything I said?

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And yes, Tim, SEA ran the warmest departure from average of all major stations last month. For reasons that are obvious to anyone with a functioning brain.

 

I have never argued that North Bend will be colder than SEA every single day. To imply otherwise is just intellectually dishonest.

 

Enjoy your rain. :)

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And yes, Tim, SEA ran the warmest departure from average of all major stations last month. For reasons that are obvious to anyone with a functioning brain.

 

I have never argued that North Bend will be colder than SEA every single day. To imply otherwise is just intellectually dishonest.

 

Enjoy your rain. :)

 

 

I will enjoy the rain... we really need it.

 

And I have never said there was not UHI at SEA.   I have agreed with Jared's analysis many, many times.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Hoping for a windstorm- chances are pretty slim though.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"

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I pretty much just stick to the GFS. I end up being much happier that way.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Seems like we basically have the same weather in the Portland area today that Salem had most of yesterday afternoon. Temps around 60 with light rain at times. Very slow northward progression of this system.

 

Be interesting to see how much I ended up with today. Looks like a little upslope shower activity developing, but southerly flow like this is typically going to yield pretty uniform precip rates across the region. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Saturday could be mostly dry and mild down here. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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GFS cooler and wetter next week.

 

12z ensembles were quite a bit cooler. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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