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April 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW


Omegaraptor

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Cedar Lake updated... now at 12.28 inches for April before the rain yesterday.   Snoqualmie Fall is at about 7 inches.   Both are just about 150% of normal for April. 

 

I was looking though the data for Cedar Lake and there has only been 1 year drier than normal there this decade.

 

Most consistently wet decade in the station's history going back to 1898.

 

cl1.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Big difference at Palmer, the station you used to like to use.

Palmer is on the other side of a mountain though.

 

And the Cedar Lake is the source of Seattle's water for the last 100 years and there is never any missing data at that station. It seems to be more controlled and monitored... for obvious reasons.

 

I am sure the Cedar Lake station is quite a bit more wet than here overall.    But the anomalies probably match better for my area.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Cloudy and 52 here this morning. The next 3 days shouldn’t be terrible up here minus the possibility of some light showers in a convergence zone this afternoon.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Cloudy and 52 here this morning. The next 3 days shouldn’t be terrible up here minus the possibility of some light showers in a convergence zone this afternoon.

 

 

It will probably be almost totally dry and maybe even sunny in your area over the weekend as well... lots of shadowing with that trough.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Big difference at Palmer, the station you used to like to use.

 

 

I checked a similar station just north of Cedar Lake to compare the data there... Tolt Reservoir east of Carnation.     

 

Similar anomalies... only 1 drier than normal year this decade.    That was in 2015... the Cedar Lake station had its only drier than normal year in 2013.

 

This has been the wettest decade in that station's history as well... by quite a margin.  

 

tolt.png

 

 

 

And going a little farther north... same thing at Concrete.    Every year this decade has been wetter than normal except 2013.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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A little light rain this morning. Should end the month near average.

 

 

If it does not rain any more... SEA would end April at 122% of normal and BLI would end up at 129%.

 

The foothill stations out here would end up around 150% of normal with no additional rain.  

 

But OLM might end up below normal... with the pattern favoring the central and north Sound and adjacent foothills in terms of anomalies.

 

anomimage.gif

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Palmer is on the other side of a mountain though.

 

And the Cedar Lake is the source of Seattle's water for the last 100 years and there is never any missing data at that station. It seems to be more controlled and monitored... for obvious reasons.

 

I am sure the Cedar Lake station is quite a bit more wet than here overall.    But the anomalies probably match better for my area.

 

Huh, I wonder how much more wet? Only one way to find out...

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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If it does not rain any more... SEA would end April at 122% of normal and BLI would end up at 129%.

 

The foothill stations out here would end up around 150% of normal with no additional rain.

 

But OLM might end up below normal... with the pattern favoring the central and north Sound and adjacent foothills in terms of anomalies.

 

anomimage.gif

always interests me every year how the rainfall disperses so much from one place to another with only 5 or so miles distance. I know the map isn’t exact but it’s fairly close.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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If it does not rain any more... SEA would end April at 122% of normal and BLI would end up at 129%.

 

The foothill stations out here would end up around 150% of normal with no additional rain.  

 

But OLM might end up below normal... with the pattern favoring the central and north Sound and adjacent foothills in terms of anomalies.

 

anomimage.gif

 

YTD totals are still well below though.

 

http://i66.tinypic.com/j6nzg9.png

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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always interests me every year how the rainfall disperses so much from one place to another with only 5 or so miles distance. I know the map isn’t exact but it’s fairly close.

 

 

And remember... that map is showing anomalies so it takes in account the normal distribution of rainfall.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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And remember... that map is showing anomalies so it takes in account the normal distribution of rainfall.

Yeah I understand that it’s not a YTD map. Pretty good reference to understand local rainfall however.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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YTD totals are still well below though.

 

 

 

 

 

Definitely.   

 

The Cedar Lake station is well below normal for the year... which makes sense given the record cold pattern we had.     Also why I suspected that April would be very wet.

 

2019 appears to be the best chance for a drier than normal year here in the last 6 years.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah I understand that it’s not a YTD map. Pretty good reference to understand local rainfall however.

 

 

Except the area around Tacoma could be shown to be much wetter than normal and the foothills could be much drier than normal and yet there would still be way more total rain in the foothill areas.  

 

The foothills are not always anomalously wet.   The normal rainfall distribution has been more exaggerated this month.    Similar to last year.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Some life giving rain falling this morning. 0.08" in the bucket.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Some life giving rain falling this morning. 0.08" in the bucket.

Upslope areas will be favored down here today.

 

Pretty crazy how the big trough this weekend and beyond got so washed out. What a bummer. At least it looks like we could score some chilly nights to round out the month.

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Upslope areas will be favored down here today.

 

Pretty crazy how the big trough this weekend and beyond got so washed out. What a bummer. At least it looks like we could score some chilly nights to round out the month.

kind of had a feeling that trough was too good to be true. Since we’ve had a rainy April I’m guessing it’s going to start drying out as we head into next month. Who knows though could continue being cloudy and rainy next month too. Just the way the patterns have been going this winter seems like we’re due for a pattern change.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Last 12 months have also been below normal for almost the entire region. This will be even drier once it updates at the start of May.

 

attachicon.gifLast12mPNormWRCC-NW.png

 

Indeed.

 

8 out of the last 12 months have been drier than normal at the Cedar Lake station as well. 

 

Although the September - December was almost perfectly normal.    Every month in that period was right around normal in terms of total precip and number of days with rain.   

 

But this wet April was almost inevitable around here after being well below normal for January - March.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Sounds like you’re enjoying the hell out of it lately. What are we at 25-30 posts about rain this morning alone?

 

#totallyfine

 

#notameltdown

 

I really enjoy the analysis.    Until you have to chime in with personal attacks for no reason... or basis in fact.

 

You are just being a complete d*ck as usual.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Last 12 months have also been below normal for almost the entire region. This will be even drier once it updates at the start of May.

 

Last12mPNormWRCC-NW.png

This could be the year SEA ends a calendar year or water year below average! It is going to be close though as SEA is still within a couple inches of normal. Heading into the drier seasons until October so all it would take is a good AR event or thunderstorm event and SEA would be above normal. The recent AR event a couple weeks ago was supposed to hit Seattle but ended up going down to Oregon. Supposed to be dry this summer so probably a good chance of making at least the water year.
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GFS is showing some decent offshore flow out in the mid range. Even with cold 850 temps that would probably equate to some mild and sunny, possibly breezy afternoons. The chilly airmass overhead would probably keep temps in check and make for some cold mornings if the wind relaxed. I think everyone could probably enjoy something like that.

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This could be the year SEA ends a calendar year or water year below average! It is going to be close though as SEA is still within a couple inches of normal. Heading into the drier seasons until October so all it would take is a good AR event or thunderstorm event and SEA would be above normal. The recent AR event a couple weeks ago was supposed to hit Seattle but ended up going down to Oregon. Supposed to be dry this summer so probably a good chance of making at least the water year.

Phil says we are in for a wet summer.
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GFS is showing some decent offshore flow out in the mid range. Even with cold 850 temps that would probably equate to some mild and sunny, possibly breezy afternoons. The chilly airmass overhead would probably keep temps in check and make for some cold mornings if the wind relaxed. I think everyone could probably enjoy something like that.

Sort of an interesting pattern. We don’t see offshore flow with a cool airmass too often this late.

 

As long as we get some normal rainfall in May I’m pretty fine with whatever.

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Phil says we are in for a wet summer.

The majority of the US is supposed to be wetter except the northwest warmer and drier. It usually ends up the opposite so I personally don’t think it is going to be a scorcher and drier than normal. I am thinking more troughs with thunderstorm chances and not as much smoke as the past summers.

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The majority of the US is supposed to be wetter except the northwest warmer and drier. It usually ends up the opposite so I personally don’t think it is going to be a scorcher and drier than normal. I am thinking more troughs with thunderstorm chances and not as much smoke as the past summers.

I haven’t looked at any seasonal forecasts. Are they leaning on Nino climo?
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No problem... its fits.

I think he needs to take one of his forum breaks...seems like he is the one melting down way too often lately. If it’s not a Jesse approved opinion it is not a valid opinion.
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Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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I think he needs to take one of his forum breaks...seems like he is the one melting down way too often lately. If it’s not a Jesse approved opinion it is not a valid opinion.

Not calling out anyone in particular but seems like a lot of the time people resort to personal attacks on people over personal dislikes for people when we should be focusing strictly on weather. Some days it’s alright but then other times half of the conversations are people trying to insult eachother because someone wants warm/Cold weather pattern or because they don’t believe that a foot of rain could fall in a month. I haven’t been around long enough to understand and the personal beef people have on here, but it’s ridiculous sometimes considering we are talking about weather. We are talking about a basic and non-controversial topic like weather we should just talk weather and not get mad at someone for talking weather.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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The 12z Euro hits us a little more directly with the trough on Saturday than the GFS.

 

It seems like one of the primary things giving the models so many fits with the upcoming pattern is the phasing of that southern cutoff low over California into the northern jet. Models that brought them together right over our region ended up digging a deeper western trough. More recent runs that keep it as a ULL for longer tend to usher everything east rather quickly.

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