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May 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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I know it's far out, but the GFS has eastern Iowa getting 8-10 inches of rain over the next two weeks. Looks like the active pattern continues throught the month and maybe into early June.

Mosquito Season is going to be ugly this year. That is a tremendous amount of moisture being spit out by the GFS op and ensemble. No bueno for farmers and garndeners.

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We will see these storms roll in 6-7 am and linger till noon.

High winds are the real threat. Some hail expected.

 

Currently we have 20-25 mph winds, real muggy, partly cloudy, 86*

 

Wind is out of the E.- SE - always a good indicator were about to get clobbered.

 

I think the area east of Dallas will see the worst potential.

That seems to be the pattern here this spring.

Sunday will be Sunny and hit 88*

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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These rain events do provide decent amounts of rain, but it sure would be nice to get a good thunderstorm with some nice downpours. Maybe this weekend??

 

I also love storms, but I’m not to happy with the high winds last evening. Most of the trees leaves were very tender still & they are kind of shredded now and will remain that way for the rest of the year. Usually storm winds don’t last very long or the leaves are tough when it does. Also some 2” diameter branches dangling on some trees. Could’ve been a lot worse!

Yesterday I mentioned that the east side of the buildings were plastered with leaf debris, but it was pretty much on all sides. Just thought it was unique how it wipped around on the east side as well.

One tiny cell around 2:30am. produced a brief 7”+ max rain rate while the big storm wasn’t even 2” max.

Whatever....the soil is saturated!

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Northern Iowa getting the best storms tonight. Looks like 2-3 inches of rain has already fallen in areas such as Mason City and Charles City and it's still coming down.

 

HRRR brings a strong line of storms across Eastern Iowa tommrow morning. I hope that it does not take away energy for storms later tommrow afternoon. 

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My rain total from last evening through this afternoon is 0.89".

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Tornado Warning

Severe Weather Statement

National Weather Service Dodge City KS

1011 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019

 

KSC047-145-185-180345-

/O.CON.KDDC.TO.W.0023.000000T0000Z-190518T0345Z/

Pawnee KS-Stafford KS-Edwards KS-

1011 PM CDT Fri May 17 2019

 

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1045 PM CDT FOR CENTRAL

PAWNEE...SOUTHWESTERN STAFFORD AND CENTRAL EDWARDS COUNTIES...

 

At 1010 PM CDT, a confirmed large and extremely dangerous tornado was

located near Kinsley, moving northeast at 35 mph.

 

This is a PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS SITUATION. TAKE COVER NOW!

 

HAZARD...Damaging tornado.

 

SOURCE...Law enforcement confirmed tornado.

 

IMPACT...You are in a life-threatening situation. Flying debris may

be deadly to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes

will be destroyed. Considerable damage to homes,

businesses, and vehicles is likely and complete destruction

is possible.

 

The tornado will be near...

Lewis around 1020 PM CDT.

Garfield and Belpre around 1030 PM CDT.

Zook around 1035 PM CDT.

 

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

 

To repeat, a large, extremely dangerous and potentially deadly

tornado is on the ground. To protect your life, TAKE COVER NOW! Move

to a basement or an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy

building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in

a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect

yourself from flying debris

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I’m very intrigued by what’s forthcoming with these line of storms. Both are being driven by a long tracked supercell attached to the boeing segment. Will see what happens downstream driven by the LLJ gusting out of the south at 30 mph.

 

2019

 

Areas affected...central and eastern Nebraska...central and northern

Kansas

 

Concerning...Tornado Watch 178...

 

Valid 180414Z - 180615Z

 

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 178 continues.

 

SUMMARY...Severe weather risk -- including potential for a couple of

tornadoes -- continues across WW 178, and the continuing portion of

WW 172.

 

DISCUSSION...Latest radar loop shows strong storms moving across

portions of central Nebraska/central Kansas at this time. One

long-lived supercell continues moving northeast across Pawnee County

KS toward Barton County Kansas, and this storm has had a history of

producing tornadoes. Meanwhile to the northeast, a 66 kt gust

occurred within the past hour with a bowing cluster of storms moving

across north-central Kansas.

 

Back to the west, convection has begun to develop along the surface

cold front, from central Nebraska into western Kansas -- which

should continue to evolve and shift across the central Plains over

the next several hours.

 

While the overall severe risk should remain lesser overnight than

was the case earlier this afternoon and evening, the overall

kinematic and thermodynamic environment remains supportive of

vigorous updrafts. With convective mode trending toward linear with

time, and some decoupling of the boundary layer evident due to

nocturnal cooling, risk should trend toward mainly hail, and to a

lesser degree locally strong wind gusts. This risk however may

prove sufficient to warrant new WW issuance across portions of

central and eastern Kansas/Nebraska -- with the remaining portion of

the Nebraska WW set to expire at 05Z.

 

..Goss.. 05/18/2019

 

...Please see www.spc.noaa.gov for graphic product...

 

ATTN...WFO...FSD...OAX...TOP...ICT...GID...LBF...DDC...GLD...

DFE11369-85C2-4C60-AA5F-485F64E109F4.gif

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While many of you are getting ready for severe storms, I’m reading this:

 

One, there will be a heavy deformation band of precip on the west side of the low from southwest to northeast WI Sunday. Two, because of this and stronger CAA, there could be strong dynamical cooling resulting in a colder atmosphere and yes the potential for snow along I-35 north of the Twin Cities from mid morning to mid afternoon. NAM, ECMWF are both showing this potential well, but most of the other guidance including some of the Hi-Res CAMs are also portraying a mix in that heavy band. It`s rather unlikely any accumulation would result, but did lower temps enough to get a mix of rain and snow in the forecast in this area.

7D29F036-C644-48E9-A584-F9EED83D2E1C.png

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Here at my house I had 0.46” of rain over night. The official GRR amount looks to be 0.62” At Muskegon it was just 0.29” At Kalamazoo they came in at 0.58” Marshall reported 0.59”. As for temperatures for the most part in South West Michigan they are in the low to mid 50’s off to our south they range into the 60’s to the low 70’s and to our north it is from the cold mid 30’s and low 40’s.

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Driving up to Sedona today for a day trip and tackle a couple different hiking spots: 1) Soldiers Pass  2) Devils Bridge  

 

Supposedly, these are some of the most scenic trails in Red Rock country.  Have a great day everyone.  Stay safe for those who are going to see storms today. 

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The morning action did not work out as I'd hoped.  The first line blew up after passing Cedar Rapids, while the second line has crapped out before reaching us.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Only 0.16" this morning. Now lets get these clouds out of here so we can clear out and get the atmosphere recharged for storms later today.

 

HRRR suggests we will get heavy rain tonight, but the severe threat does not look very impressive. WPC has us in a moderate risk of heavy rain/flash flooding.

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It is still cloudy and just 60° here at my house. The temperatures across Michigan at 11 AM ranged from 69 down at Benton Harbor to just 36 at Houghton. It is much warmer in Illinois and Indiana were temperatures are in the upper 60’s to low 80’s  Also at this time there is a line of showers and thunderstorm in eastern Iowa and western Illinois and up to western Wisconsin. So as it may be hard to get into the upper 70’s today.

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The mean temperature at Grand Rapids is now at 53.4 that is a departure of -3.0°  at Muskegon the mean is now 51.1 and that is -3.4° the warmest so far is just 70. At Kalamazoo the departure is now at -2.3. And it is -2.5 at Lansing. At other locations around Michigan Detroit -2.4° At Flint -1.8 and Saginaw -2.9° Up north Alpena -4.2° Gaylord -4.1 Traverse City -5.7° In the UP Sault Ste Marie -4.6° Marquette a whopping -6.7° and they have had a reported 5.8” of snow fall. And Houghton -4.0.

And while it is a ski resort there is still snow on the ground at Mt Ripply (if you have not been up there you can see this from downtown Houghton)

https://www.mtu.edu/webcams/ripley/

And while the grass is green the leaves on the trees are just starting to leaf out both at Houghton and Munsising to the east

https://video.nest.com/live/KwoI4PahN5

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We're about to get hammered. Tornado watch till 7 across Texas.

 

The air is so heavy you feel like a fish under water.

 

Currently 77* Humidity 86%.

Growing darker and darker. The

 

The line of storms have been lingering west of DFW. But that means they're moving slow.

They should drop a good deal of water.

The big lake just east of me has closed off its main road and the Corps of Engineers have opened the flood gate to lower the lake level. They started that 2 days ago in preparation.

 

This should be interesting. Hope the hail stays small.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Driving up to Sedona today for a day trip and tackle a couple different hiking spots: 1) Soldiers Pass 2) Devils Bridge

 

Supposedly, these are some of the most scenic trails in Red Rock country. Have a great day everyone. Stay safe for those who are going to see storms today.

Sounds like an awesome day. You stay safe also.

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