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May 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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N IL is under the gun today...Tornado Watch likely to be issued...

 

 

 

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NWS Chicago Retweeted NWS SPC

A Tornado Watch is very likely to be issued issued by 2pm for at least portions of the area, with 95% watch probabilities indicated in the SPC mesoscale discussion. Stay tuned for updates. #ilwx #inwx

 

 

 

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I thought showers and storms are supposed to redevelop later today. How do severe storm prospects look for Eastern Iowa later today?

 

It appears we may be done for today.  The HRRR has all the action over in lllinois later this afternoon/evening.  I only picked up a third on an inch or so, so today was kind of a dud.  I hope tomorrow works out better and everything doesn't get shoved south.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It appears we may be done for today.  The HRRR has all the action over in lllinois later this afternoon/evening.  I only picked up a third on an inch or so, so today was kind of a dud.  I hope tomorrow works out better and everything doesn't get shoved south.

It's funny how the SPC still has us in a slight risk if we are done for today. I thought the warm front lifting north would help but nope. Illinois gets it all. 

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What severe weather parameters are we missing here in Eastern Iowa to get storms going? Sun is trying to break through the clouds here. 

 

I think mostly the lingering light rain ruined it for us.  It's only in the upper 60s to low 70s in Iowa, while it's in the low 80s over in Illinois.  I also think today's disturbance is stronger than models had expected a couple days ago, so it is sweeping the severe potential farther south and east.  This is also why Tuesday's severe has been steadily shifting south.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Watching the cumulus clouds starting to stack on this beautiful day. Couldn't ask for a more enjoyable day, but keeping my attention on family in IL. Interesting development already that way. Models have trended a little further north tomorrow too. (The tornado potential for KS later is also looking crazy)

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The GFS/FV3/Euro have all moved nearly all of Tuesday's action south of Cedar Rapids.   :angry:

 

From now on, it may be safer just to assume that if models have everything missing north/west, you'll be hit, and if models have you getting hit, everything will miss south/east.  The entire last week has followed that rule.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Friend in Aurora, IL just had golf ball size hail destroy his roof. I used to live about a quarter mile from him.

I lived in Montgomery, just outside of Aurora. That's big time hail. Hope everyone's fine.

 

You guys be careful up there!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Skies have darken up. Any barbequers out there, beware.... :lol: Boomers are coming! Temps are in the low 70s.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It appears we may be done for today. The HRRR has all the action over in lllinois later this afternoon/evening. I only picked up a third on an inch or so, so today was kind of a dud. I hope tomorrow works out better and everything doesn't get shoved south.

Yes today definitely was one of those underperforming duds. Once those storms began intensifying along the Mississippi River and the wind began taking on a more southwesterly direction, I figured we’re done for today! Only around 1/3 rd of an inch total today. Dew points dropped a little as well. The cement floor is drying off as a result.

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There is currently a strong tornado moving through the Dayton, OH area.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The SPC has me back in the northern part of an ‘enhanced risk’ area. Still looking like southern Ia could get rocked. This north wind doesn’t impress me much. Hopefully the warm front can shift a little further north. But currently most of the the action, including a few severe warned storms are north of the boundary which means it’s trying to advect north, at least aloft, though I could be wrong.

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There is a good reason as to why the heat has been on but the air off so far this year. At this time Grand Rapids has only had 6 cooling degree days (CDD) this month that is already-23 and for the year GR has only had 6 that is -31. Now for Heating Degree Days (HDD) GR is at 237 (+19) for May and is now at 6662 for the year that is +239 so yes in our area we use the heat much more then the Air. And we have not had a lot of don't have to days yet either (that is dont have to have the heat on nor the air on) but we have had more in the last 10 days or so.

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Another troublesome tornado day today. So be careful folks.

 

In the last 3 days there have been over 500 tornados reported. Close to a record.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Lincoln and Omaha got hit pretty good this morning.  I expected to see some posts from our members over there.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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Wild seeing the pictures out of Dayton. We where stationed there in the early 90s. I remember a few really bad storms when we lived there. We got pelted with hail like crazy this morning. I was asleep for the whole thing, but apparently it was so bad we had cars slipping off the interstate.

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Lincoln and Omaha got hit pretty good this morning.  I expected to see some posts from our members over there.

Other than the heavy rain it was pretty routine thunderstorms here. The rain hitting the window did wake me up this morning at 4:30. We were placed under multiple unverified severe t-storm warnings throughout the night. I'd say the un-warned cell that woke me up was stronger than any of the warned stuff.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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All the morning convection is not going to help the front lift north today.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I'm RIGHT on the line between the enhanced and moderate risk today. I still don't have high hopes. I can easily see this being a bust here and an outbreak for Northeast Kansas. Sun is wanting to come out which is good for those of us who want storms, but the temp got decreased pretty drastically by dynamic cooling so if we want the front to get past here we need the sun to come out soon. 58.1*F.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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I'm RIGHT on the line between the enhanced and moderate risk today. I still don't have high hopes. I can easily see this being a bust here and an outbreak for Northeast Kansas. Sun is wanting to come out which is good for those of us who want storms, but the temp got decreased pretty drastically by dynamic cooling so if we want the front to get past here we need the sun to come out soon. 58.1*F.

Forecasted high went from 80 to 67. Not very helpful indeed.
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Forecasted high went from 80 to 67. Not very helpful indeed.

NWS has had a boner over severe weather chances here over the past few days and I'm not sure why. None of the models have had the warm front all the way up here, and the farthest North model (NAM) only had it up to Beatrice.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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NWS has had a boner over severe weather chances here over the past few days and I'm not sure why. None of the models have had the warm front all the way up here, and the farthest North model (NAM) only had it up to Beatrice.

Well to be honest some of the severe weather has not been forecasted that well this year either. Same with winter for that matter lol.
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PHX only topped out at 79F yesterday, tying the all-time record low max for Memorial Day.  I spent the majority of the day outside by the pool and relaxin' and embracing the unusually "cool" weather.  Mind you, normal highs for the area are 99F and we will be creeping closer to that normal by the end of the week.

 

On this 28th day of May, it is my birthday and I plan on heading out for a morning hike adjacent to our place here.  I have gained another year of wisdom, knowledge, experience and most of all...my love for nature and the weather continues to grow stronger each and every day.  I truly do enjoy coming on here with all of you and how we, collectively, as a forum, learn and grow from each other.  Hope ya'll have a wonderful day and hopefully those who have that storm "itch" get hit today but not to hard!

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PHX only topped out at 79F yesterday, tying the all-time record low max for Memorial Day. I spent the majority of the day outside by the pool and relaxin' and embracing the unusually "cool" weather. Mind you, normal highs for the area are 99F and we will be creeping closer to that normal by the end of the week.

 

On this 28th day of May, it is my birthday and I plan on heading out for a morning hike adjacent to our place here. I have gained another year of wisdom, knowledge, experience and most of all...my love for nature and the weather continues to grow stronger each and every day. I truly do enjoy coming on here with all of you and how we, collectively, as a forum, learn and grow from each other. Hope ya'll have a wonderful day and hopefully those who have that storm "itch" get hit today but not to hard!

Wow! Bet that felt better than the muggy 80s we had here. Spent the better part of the afternoon outside and I was sweating bullets.

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Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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