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May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW

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#1
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 May 2019 - 05:16 AM

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Welcome to May.

#2
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 May 2019 - 05:18 AM

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If my weather app is to be believed then there’s supposed to be no rain in the next 10 days and only 2 days below 65 degrees. Definitely a big change from the beginning of april.

#3
Omegaraptor

Posted 01 May 2019 - 06:49 AM

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Cliff Mass has confirmed that we are in a rex block and there won’t be rain anytime soon.

2018 in Portland had 27.30" rainfall, which is the 8th driest year on record and 8.73" below normal

 

Current rainfall for PDX in 2019 is 14.15”, which is 5.31” below normal as of July 13


#4
El_Nina

Posted 01 May 2019 - 07:04 AM

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Clear and sunny skies again this morning.

#5
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 May 2019 - 07:36 AM

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Cliff Mass has confirmed that we are in a rex block and there won’t be rain anytime soon.

well things could change for the better later this month and next month but things haven’t been looking promising for a cooler wetter summer as of now. Have had 0.05” of rain since the 22nd and doesn’t look like much coming up in the next couple weeks. Could all change but right now at the beginning it looks like a 2018 repeat.

#6
Omegaraptor

Posted 01 May 2019 - 09:07 AM

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well things could change for the better later this month and next month but things haven’t been looking promising for a cooler wetter summer as of now. Have had 0.05” of rain since the 22nd and doesn’t look like much coming up in the next couple weeks. Could all change but right now at the beginning it looks like a 2018 repeat.


The seasonal overlap is definitely interesting with 2018, even if the wavetrain doesn’t match as Phil says.

2018 in Portland had 27.30" rainfall, which is the 8th driest year on record and 8.73" below normal

 

Current rainfall for PDX in 2019 is 14.15”, which is 5.31” below normal as of July 13


#7
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 May 2019 - 09:36 AM

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The seasonal overlap is definitely interesting with 2018, even if the wavetrain doesn’t match as Phil says.

has to be something there dried up just the same as last year in the second half of April we will see if it ends up being different with a different wave train or if we end up the same as last year. Enjoy the nice days now in case the smoke storms return!

#8
Front Ranger

Posted 01 May 2019 - 11:08 AM

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Cliff Mass has confirmed that we are in a rex block and there won’t be rain anytime soon.


Best model reader of all time?

It's the internet. Don't take it personal.


#9
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 May 2019 - 11:35 AM

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Up to 60 degrees at 12:30 with mostly sunny skies and a southwest breeze. I’m enjoying the sub 80s weather while we have it. Anything above 85 or so I don’t really like too much too hot for me days like today are great.

#10
TT-SEA

Posted 01 May 2019 - 12:21 PM

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Best model reader of all time?

 

 

Cliff has a pretty reasonable take on the situation... less catastrophic and dire than some on here would want though.

 

It is not unusual to have a very dry period sometime during the first half of May....and this year won't disappoint.   Particularly, after April ended up wetter than normal over the Northwest.

The precipitation departure from normal over the western U.S for the past 30 days, shows that most of Washington and Oregon enjoyed above-normal precipitation last month (green and blue colors) 



#11
El_Nina

Posted 01 May 2019 - 12:25 PM

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Had to get a nozzle for the hose when I lit the yard debris on fire today. It's so dry that I want to make sure I can spray longer distances to put out small fires that start from the ash floating around.

#12
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 May 2019 - 12:27 PM

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Cliff has a pretty reasonable take on the situation... less catastrophic and dire than some on here would want though.

It is not unusual to have a very dry period sometime during the first half of May....and this year won't disappoint. Particularly, after April ended up wetter than normal over the Northwest.

The precipitation departure from normal over the western U.S for the past 30 days, shows that most of Washington and Oregon enjoyed above-normal precipitation last month (green and blue colors)

I am not going to worry about much unless we’re really dry through all of this and next month. Still a chance we could have some wet weather in the next 2 months and it’s also not really that unusual to be a bit warm and dry in May. I see the potential for things to be dry this summer but it’s still early.

#13
TT-SEA

Posted 01 May 2019 - 12:29 PM

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Total rain over the next 10 days per the 12Z ECMWF...

 

ecmwf-tprecip-washington-41.png



#14
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 May 2019 - 12:57 PM

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Another gorgeous day.


Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Feb 25)
Coldest low: 20 (Mar 4)
Days with below freezing temps: 46
Total snowfall: 20.2"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#15
FroYoBro

Posted 01 May 2019 - 01:28 PM

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It is nice.



#16
TT-SEA

Posted 01 May 2019 - 01:30 PM

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65 and sunny here... dewpoint is still in the 30s.



#17
El_Nina

Posted 01 May 2019 - 02:20 PM

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I think the really dry air is sucking the moisture out of the delicate new vegetation growth. Seems like it's really coming in slow this year despite the unusually sunny and warm weather patterns we've had.

#18
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 May 2019 - 02:39 PM

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I think the really dry air is sucking the moisture out of the delicate new vegetation growth. Seems like it's really coming in slow this year despite the unusually sunny and warm weather patterns we've had.

We had a dew point of 17 up here yesterday, today it’s 28 we’ve had a decent south breeze here today seems to have made the air a bit less dry here.

#19
Front Ranger

Posted 01 May 2019 - 02:50 PM

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Had to get a nozzle for the hose when I lit the yard debris on fire today. It's so dry that I want to make sure I can spray longer distances to put out small fires that start from the ash floating around.


These are the costs of drought/climate change that are often overlooked.
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It's the internet. Don't take it personal.


#20
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 May 2019 - 03:03 PM

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It’s definitely lawn watering season. Saw the first hints of a lawn in need of water at my last customers place.

#21
TT-SEA

Posted 01 May 2019 - 04:30 PM

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Marine layer starting to form... air mass was too dry earlier.

 

nb-5-1.png



#22
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 May 2019 - 04:52 PM

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Marine layer starting to form... air mass was too dry earlier.

nb-5-1.png

yeah there’s been a decent south breeze all afternoon finally enough to push the dew point into the mid 30s

#23
MossMan

Posted 01 May 2019 - 04:59 PM

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Nice day for some popcorn eating on the deck!

#24
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 May 2019 - 05:57 PM

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Same temp inside as outside. A Hawai’i-style, open the windows and use the screen door day.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Feb 25)
Coldest low: 20 (Mar 4)
Days with below freezing temps: 46
Total snowfall: 20.2"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#25
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 May 2019 - 06:29 PM

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Windy here all of a sudden. Feels like a marine push.

#26
Phil

Posted 01 May 2019 - 07:58 PM

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Here comes the next WWB. This one is a behemoth and will make more eastward progress than the last one, possibly triggering a legitimate downwelling OKW given the preceding easterlies and slowdown of the westerly surface currents.

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

#27
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 May 2019 - 08:30 PM

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Windy here all of a sudden. Feels like a marine push.

Weve had breezy 25-30mph southwest winds throughout most of the day down here the dew points been rising and moister air is finally moving in from offshore.

#28
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 May 2019 - 08:39 PM

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Weve had breezy 25-30mph southwest winds throughout most of the day down here the dew points been rising and moister air is finally moving in from offshore.

It was calm here until late this afternoon but then the wind picked up and you could feel the airmass change. Dew point is about 10 degrees higher this evening. Also can usually tell when marine air is on the move here because it gets really hazy and visibility is reduced when looking towards the mountains to my west.

#29
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 May 2019 - 10:28 PM

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Attached File  D32D85F0-BBCC-4AA5-A90B-EC54480B514C.png   22.97KB   3 downloads

#30
El_Nina

Posted 02 May 2019 - 02:53 AM

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D32D85F0-BBCC-4AA5-A90B-EC54480B514C.png

Not good.

#31
TacomaWaWx

Posted 02 May 2019 - 05:27 AM

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Bit cooler today with the clouds but looks like there should be some 60s and 70s this weekend into next week.

#32
TT-SEA

Posted 02 May 2019 - 05:27 AM

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Streaky year continues.   

 

I bet there will be an extended wet period during the second half of May into early June.



#33
TacomaWaWx

Posted 02 May 2019 - 05:38 AM

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Streaky year continues.

I bet there will be an extended wet period during the second half of May into early June.

we could use some wet weather according to the Nws Seattle this is the driest start to a year since 2008 with 13.35”.Also the 3rd time in 25 years that there has been less than 60 days with precipitation to start off the first 4 months of the year with 58 days, some interesting stats 2008 ended up being a great year in December maybe it’ll be the same this year.

#34
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 02 May 2019 - 07:01 AM

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Surprised that this is really the first "cloudy morning" in Wilsonville since I arrived here for my visit on April 20th.

 

Meanwhile back at home, lows still in the mid 20's this morning in Klamath, they're having the coolest start to May in several years.


Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

 

2010-2011 - 58.20" (161%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 16.70" (46%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (146%)
 
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 7
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/??
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Severe Wind: 0
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 7 (2019), 16 (2018), 11 (2017), 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12 T'storm Days
Severe T'storms: 4 (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe - (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 


#35
TacomaWaWx

Posted 02 May 2019 - 08:46 AM

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Still a decent south marine breeze coming in not quite as breezy as yesterday. Cloudy skies still hopefully we can get some sunshine again this afternoon. Overall doesn’t look like much rain or anything for atleast the 1st half of the month hopefully we can get some decent rains on the back end of this month or the beginning of the next month. We had 2 inches of rain here last month about a half inch the month before so basically there hasn’t been much rain at all since the February snows. It’ll take some decent shots of rain in the next month to make up for the driest start of a year in the last 11 years.

#36
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 May 2019 - 09:04 AM

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The surge of warmth next week should wipe out what’s left of the snowpack here. Looks like it’s down around 50% now, maybe even a little lower.

#37
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 May 2019 - 09:31 AM

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Looking at the past 3 months at Shawnigan Lake and precip has been just 54% of normal. Not sure how that stacks up historically. But it seems remarkably dry.

#38
Omegaraptor

Posted 02 May 2019 - 09:34 AM

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12z GFS shows a pretty impressive spring heatwave for Portland.

2018 in Portland had 27.30" rainfall, which is the 8th driest year on record and 8.73" below normal

 

Current rainfall for PDX in 2019 is 14.15”, which is 5.31” below normal as of July 13


#39
TacomaWaWx

Posted 02 May 2019 - 10:22 AM

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Looking at the past 3 months at Shawnigan Lake and precip has been just 54% of normal. Not sure how that stacks up historically. But it seems remarkably dry.

Yeah I figured that when we had the rain in April it would help out more but it doesn’t seem to have helped much up north of Seattle. Atleast were not at 2015 levels. Hopefully we will get some precip again before the dry season really kicks in. 2018 went straight into the dry season basically at the end of April.

#40
MossMan

Posted 02 May 2019 - 11:48 AM

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Had a wet deck this morning.

#41
iFred

Posted 02 May 2019 - 12:16 PM

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Portland was nice yesterday. Next week might be warm.



#42
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 May 2019 - 12:37 PM

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This year is a dead ringer for last spring. 


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Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#43
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 May 2019 - 01:21 PM

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Sunny skies this morning have given way to a partial marine layer. Nice day though.

#44
TacomaWaWx

Posted 02 May 2019 - 01:32 PM

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Clouds have started to break apart here as well only 55 degrees though.

#45
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 02 May 2019 - 02:27 PM

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This year is a dead ringer for last spring. 

 

It's almost as if it's the new normal...

 

1539458136743.jpg


Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Feb 25)
Coldest low: 20 (Mar 4)
Days with below freezing temps: 46
Total snowfall: 20.2"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#46
TacomaWaWx

Posted 02 May 2019 - 02:34 PM

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Sun hasn’t really been able to penetrate the clouds here fully still just a mostly cloudy day. Should be plenty of sun in the forecast for awhile so no big deal.

#47
TT-SEA

Posted 02 May 2019 - 02:39 PM

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Woke up to drizzle... but its been a partly cloudy afternoon and very pleasant.

#48
El_Nina

Posted 02 May 2019 - 03:16 PM

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Sunny afternoon again.

#49
Omegaraptor

Posted 02 May 2019 - 03:47 PM

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Almost crystal clear sky here.

2018 in Portland had 27.30" rainfall, which is the 8th driest year on record and 8.73" below normal

 

Current rainfall for PDX in 2019 is 14.15”, which is 5.31” below normal as of July 13


#50
MossMan

Posted 02 May 2019 - 03:52 PM

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According to Kevin Martin and CraigOmahaWX we will never see another drop of rain...ever.