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May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW

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#51
El_Nina

Posted 02 May 2019 - 05:43 PM

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Despite being sunny there's a bit of a chill to the air this evening.
I have to screenshot my photos otherwise they post sideways

#52
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 02 May 2019 - 08:45 PM

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Nice pleasant night. Best kind of days in the valley...other than days like Feb 25 ❄️🙏🏻

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 19 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 27 (Most recent: Dec 4)
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#53
TacomaWaWx

Posted 02 May 2019 - 09:03 PM

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Nice pleasant night. Best kind of days in the valley...other than days like Feb 25 ❄️🙏🏻

Yeah we had our Feb 25 here on Feb 9...in all my daily weather records since 2005 February 9 beats all the other snow events for 24 hour snowfall.
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#54
MossMan

Posted 02 May 2019 - 09:59 PM

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Quite the busy day on the forum!
Currently 42 degrees and .02” in the rain gauge for the day.

#55
TacomaWaWx

Posted 03 May 2019 - 06:35 AM

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Quite the busy day on the forum!
Currently 42 degrees and .02” in the rain gauge for the day.

it’s going to take some type of severe weather like a windstorm or t-storm to energize the chat. Hoping this year we get a 5/4/17 style event again.

#56
TT-SEA

Posted 03 May 2019 - 07:34 AM

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Most of the Pacific Ocean is warmer than normal...

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

 

nino34.png



#57
Front Ranger

Posted 03 May 2019 - 09:05 AM

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Most of the Pacific Ocean is warmer than normal...

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

nino34.png


Seems like that was the case last year, too.

Low. Solar.


#58
El_Nina

Posted 03 May 2019 - 09:46 AM

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Most of the Pacific Ocean is warmer than normal...
 
cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png
 
nino34.png

That means the water is closer to the temperature it can evaporate and become rain clouds.
I have to screenshot my photos otherwise they post sideways

#59
TacomaWaWx

Posted 03 May 2019 - 10:41 AM

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It’ll be interesting to see how this translates to our weather. I’d be happy if it meant a bit more rain and no 90 degree days. Doubt it though

#60
Phil

Posted 03 May 2019 - 10:49 AM

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Interesting. I didn’t know Tulip Poplars grew in Seattle. Not exactly a great climate for them. #HumidSubtropical

https://www.seattlet...ceptional-tree/

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#61
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 03 May 2019 - 10:58 AM

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Very possible no rain falls during the month of May. Ensembles take us to the 20th now and the majority show no precip. Absolutely unbelievable. #newnormal. #climateofdoom.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#62
TT-SEA

Posted 03 May 2019 - 11:08 AM

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Very possible no rain falls during the month of May. Ensembles take us to the 20th now and the majority show no precip. Absolutely unbelievable. #newnormal. #climateofdoom.


If I made a statement like this on the 3rd day of a month about rain every day for the rest of the month... the mocking would be ruthless. :)

#63
jcmcgaffey

Posted 03 May 2019 - 11:27 AM

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Interesting. I didn’t know Tulip Poplars grew in Seattle. Not exactly a great climate for them. #HumidSubtropical

https://www.seattlet...ceptional-tree/

had a huge one in my yard growing up and was amazing. There is also a big one down the street from our house. Really cool trees when they bloom.
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#64
El_Nina

Posted 03 May 2019 - 11:47 AM

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If I made a statement like this on the 3rd day of a month about rain every day for the rest of the month... the mocking would be ruthless. :)


No it wouldn't.
I have to screenshot my photos otherwise they post sideways

#65
TacomaWaWx

Posted 03 May 2019 - 11:57 AM

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Very possible no rain falls during the month of May. Ensembles take us to the 20th now and the majority show no precip. Absolutely unbelievable. #newnormal. #climateofdoom.

Maybe it’ll rain at the end of the month or a bit next month. Either way up north here apparently there expecting Ross lake in the north cascades to be an estimated 25’ below normal due to the low amount of precip this year so far north of Seattle and most of Olympic National Park is around 50% of normal snowpack. It’s not the end of the world all of this but the water and snowpack situations aren’t great. Driest start to a year here since 2008. Definitely would help out getting some rain soon.

#66
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 03 May 2019 - 12:02 PM

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Only hotter and drier from here...is your body ready?

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 19 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 27 (Most recent: Dec 4)
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#67
Phil

Posted 03 May 2019 - 12:14 PM

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Very possible no rain falls during the month of May. Ensembles take us to the 20th now and the majority show no precip. Absolutely unbelievable. #newnormal. #climateofdoom.


Rain will fall this month. And rain will fall in June.

The panic in here is hilarious.

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#68
MossMan

Posted 03 May 2019 - 12:20 PM

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Perfect weather for working in the yard today! Overcast, a little breezy, and fairly mild.

#69
James Jones

Posted 03 May 2019 - 12:22 PM

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Interesting thoughts from Mark Nelsen. 

 

https://fox12weather...y-start-to-may/

 

"But now things are getting strange again…

 

During the past two weeks we’ve seen little/no rain for most of us west of the Cascades.

 

1. That DOES sometimes happen in the springtime for a week or so, but dry spells to two weeks are unusual.

 

2. Now add in another week of dry weather on the way and that’s VERY unusual.  I just took a look at rain records here in Portland.  This is crazy.  Take the last two weeks of April, then add in these first 9 days of May (assuming little/no rain falls through next Thursday).

 

3. This year is the driest, followed by…last year!

 

Three of the five driest late April through early May periods have been in the past few years.  That’s 2019, 2018, & 2015.    We know what happened in those other two years…very warm/hot summers.

 

We have also seen 6 consecutive dry Mays in Oregon Climate Zone #2 (lower elevations west of Cascades).  That’s after the memorable chilly & wet springs 2010-2012

 

capture-1.png?w=450

This does make me suspect (along with other evidence) that our warming/changing climate has a part in this.  Anecdotally, it seems we are seeing more episodes of upper-level ridging near/over the west coast of North America the past 5-6 years.  Remember last winter we (again) didn’t have any sort of typical stormy westerly flow.  The action (snow & cold) came from a big ridge to our west and cold northerly flow coming out of Canada.  Also it seems we are seeing higher “upper-level heights” in the warm season.  In this case everything would be pushed to the north; Portland’s warm season weather would become more like Roseburg.  Then Roseburg is more like Medford etc…  Again, this is anecdotal and based on what I’ve seen all these years forecasting in our area.

 

As Pete Ferryman said yesterday, maybe the old saying “summer begins on July 5th” will disappear in time.  We’ll see."



#70
Front Ranger

Posted 03 May 2019 - 12:46 PM

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Very possible no rain falls during the month of May. Ensembles take us to the 20th now and the majority show no precip. Absolutely unbelievable. #newnormal. #climateofdoom.


Troll post of 2019...so far!

Low. Solar.


#71
Phil

Posted 03 May 2019 - 12:58 PM

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Interesting thoughts from Mark Nelsen.

https://fox12weather...y-start-to-may/

"But now things are getting strange again…


During the past two weeks we’ve seen little/no rain for most of us west of the Cascades.


1. That DOES sometimes happen in the springtime for a week or so, but dry spells to two weeks are unusual.


2. Now add in another week of dry weather on the way and that’s VERY unusual. I just took a look at rain records here in Portland. This is crazy. Take the last two weeks of April, then add in these first 9 days of May (assuming little/no rain falls through next Thursday).


3. This year is the driest, followed by…last year!


Three of the five driest late April through early May periods have been in the past few years. That’s 2019, 2018, & 2015. We know what happened in those other two years…very warm/hot summers.


We have also seen 6 consecutive dry Mays in Oregon Climate Zone #2 (lower elevations west of Cascades). That’s after the memorable chilly & wet springs 2010-2012


capture-1.png?w=450

This does make me suspect (along with other evidence) that our warming/changing climate has a part in this. Anecdotally, it seems we are seeing more episodes of upper-level ridging near/over the west coast of North America the past 5-6 years. Remember last winter we (again) didn’t have any sort of typical stormy westerly flow. The action (snow & cold) came from a big ridge to our west and cold northerly flow coming out of Canada. Also it seems we are seeing higher “upper-level heights” in the warm season. In this case everything would be pushed to the north; Portland’s warm season weather would become more like Roseburg. Then Roseburg is more like Medford etc… Again, this is anecdotal and based on what I’ve seen all these years forecasting in our area.


As Pete Ferryman said yesterday, maybe the old saying “summer begins on July 5th” will disappear in time. We’ll see."


But the “trigger” for the ridging is completely different this year versus last year and 2015.

There is actually a narrow z-cell structure now with low pass subsidence developing over the WP. That’s the opposite of last year and 2017/15/14, so when the trailing MJO axis leaves West-Central Pacific later this month, we’ll enter into a 1990s type +ENSO pattern with more GOA troughing/zonal flow and moisture draw.

The 4-corners High is going to be pathetic this year.

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#72
Phil

Posted 03 May 2019 - 01:07 PM

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had a huge one in my yard growing up and was amazing. There is also a big one down the street from our house. Really cool trees when they bloom.


Ha, wow. I never thought they could do well out there given the lack of summer rainfall. I saw a few small/medium sized ones in west-Seattle last year, but I figured someone was watering them because they were as lush and green as the ones out here.

They’re actually the dominant native tree species here. Currently in full bloom for the most part. We have several in/around our property that are between 140-160ft even after losing their tops long ago..most have been growing since the mid/late 18th century, when this area was logged.

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#73
TacomaWaWx

Posted 03 May 2019 - 01:15 PM

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Rain will fall this month. And rain will fall in June.

The panic in here is hilarious.

I don’t really see anyone panicking. The water situation isnt great but 2015 was worse and we got through that. I’ll be more worried if we go through the next couple months with little or no rain. It has been an overall dry start to the year so far so you can see why people would be a little worried since last year was dry.Maybe we will get some decent rain coming up. We could end up having a repeat of last year when May and June ended up dry with not much rain nobody knows how much it will rain or if it will rain in May or June.

#74
Front Ranger

Posted 03 May 2019 - 03:16 PM

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But the “trigger” for the ridging is completely different this year versus last year and 2015.

There is actually a narrow z-cell structure now with low pass subsidence developing over the WP. That’s the opposite of last year and 2017/15/14, so when the trailing MJO axis leaves West-Central Pacific later this month, we’ll enter into a 1990s type +ENSO pattern with more GOA troughing/zonal flow and moisture draw.

The 4-corners High is going to be pathetic this year.


You usually forecast hot PNW summers, so this is a good sign.
  • K%% likes this

Low. Solar.


#75
GHweatherChris

Posted 03 May 2019 - 04:59 PM

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Today really reminded me of 5/3/2019, weird....
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#76
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 03 May 2019 - 05:35 PM

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It's another Rex Block above normal PNW pattern and below normal Southern California pattern, just like last year.

#77
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 03 May 2019 - 05:36 PM

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Today really reminded me of 5/3/2019, weird....


Today IS 5/3/2019.

#78
High Desert Mat?

Posted 03 May 2019 - 06:15 PM

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Today IS 5/3/2019.


Oh boy, someone is shy of a couple.
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#79
Phil

Posted 03 May 2019 - 06:15 PM

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You usually forecast hot PNW summers, so this is a good sign.


I did last year. And in both 2014 and 2015. And I think this one will end up on the warm side too, but for a different reason (more 1997-like..warm SW flow ahead of a growing GOA vortex type regime).

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#80
El_Nina

Posted 03 May 2019 - 06:17 PM

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Another day full of compete sunniness. Invest in those sunscreen and bottled water stocks.
I have to screenshot my photos otherwise they post sideways

#81
Front Ranger

Posted 03 May 2019 - 07:08 PM

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I did last year. And in both 2014 and 2015. And I think this one will end up on the warm side too, but for a different reason (more 1997-like..warm SW flow ahead of a growing GOA vortex type regime).

 

1997 was a pretty cool summer for the US. Not really warm in the PNW, either.

 

Attached File  cd97.122.160.235.122.21.11.13.prcp.png   429.48KB   0 downloads


Low. Solar.


#82
TT-SEA

Posted 03 May 2019 - 07:12 PM

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I was checking back on model performance... because I remember being in doubt about this weekend a week ago.

 

Here was the actual 500mb pattern this morning:

 

gfs_z500a_namer_1.png

 

 

Here is what the ECMWF showed on the 12Z run one week ago today for this morning... not bad.

 

ecmwf_z500a_namer_8.png

 

 

Here is what the GFS showed for today on the 00Z run last Friday for this morning... not so good for the West Coast.

 

gfs_z500a_namer_27.png



#83
Omegaraptor

Posted 03 May 2019 - 07:25 PM

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I did last year. And in both 2014 and 2015. And I think this one will end up on the warm side too, but for a different reason (more 1997-like..warm SW flow ahead of a growing GOA vortex type regime).

 

 

Isn't 2002 also a possible analog? It was similar to 1997 but with a little more in terms of heat wave action I think. Still mostly consistent 70s and 80s throughout the summer.

 

1997 was a bit on the warm side especially in August and September and a cool June and start to July. 2002 was extremely close to the 1981-2010 historical average (but it had a cooler than normal May unlike this year).


No rain here until Hour 258.

#84
Phil

Posted 03 May 2019 - 07:48 PM

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The 12z EPS really expedites the jet extension during the D11-15 range.

This might be rushed, but y’all are gonna be praying for some sunshine once the floodgates open later this month..some very anomalous stuff in the pipeline at some point, looking at the AAM cycle, under what is already a regime of narrow z-cells/polar blocking.

XQyPuke.png
oKIqHUi.png

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#85
Phil

Posted 03 May 2019 - 07:58 PM

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Firehose D13-14.

Gvv4Hlx.png

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#86
Phil

Posted 03 May 2019 - 08:00 PM

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The severe weather during the second half of the month is gonna be off the charts, too. I’ll wager at least one EF4 somewhere before the month is over.

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#87
Phil

Posted 03 May 2019 - 08:05 PM

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Isn't 2002 also a possible analog? It was similar to 1997 but with a little more in terms of heat wave action I think. Still mostly consistent 70s and 80s throughout the summer.

1997 was a bit on the warm side especially in August and September and a cool June and start to July. 2002 was extremely close to the 1981-2010 historical average (but it had a cooler than normal May unlike this year).


Yes, definitely another possible analog. Though as you mentioned the inteaseasonal cycle was out of sync compared to this year.

And May will certainly start warm this year, but unlike last year it will flip zonal, then cool before the month closes. Last year it took until the start of June for the pattern to transition, while this year it will probably happen ~ 10 days sooner.

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#88
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 03 May 2019 - 08:09 PM

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At least I got to bask in an inch of rain today.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#89
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 03 May 2019 - 08:22 PM

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Definite improvement with the 18z ensembles.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#90
Phil

Posted 03 May 2019 - 08:25 PM

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1997 was a pretty cool summer for the US. Not really warm in the PNW, either.

cd97.122.160.235.122.21.11.13.prcp.png


It was warm at all of the airports west of the cascades, which is what people here care about.

And I didn’t say anything about the rest of the US. :)

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#91
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 03 May 2019 - 09:30 PM

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1997 certainly did not stick out as a warm summer. I think there was a major trough that July that brought decent snows above 5-6,000 in the Cascades.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#92
Omegaraptor

Posted 03 May 2019 - 10:31 PM

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The 12z EPS really expedites the jet extension during the D11-15 range.
This might be rushed, but y’all are gonna be praying for some sunshine once the floodgates open later this month..some very anomalous stuff in the pipeline at some point, looking at the AAM cycle, under what is already a regime of narrow z-cells/polar blocking.XQyPuke.pngoKIqHUi.png

May 2013?

I mean, the odds that this verifies aren’t too high given how far out it is, but it would be great to see one last big rain event before dry season truly kicks in.
No rain here until Hour 258.

#93
ShawniganLake

Posted 03 May 2019 - 11:22 PM

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If the GFS verified we would see a 27 day+ dry streak. Summers are sure a lot longer than they used to be.

#94
TT-SEA

Posted 03 May 2019 - 11:59 PM

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If the GFS verified we would see a 27 day+ dry streak. Summers are sure a lot longer than they used to be.


Streaky nature of this year is getting annoying now. How about a couple days with rain mixed in each week? The offset to this will probably be 20 days of rain in a row here and that really does suck in the warm season. One extreme or the other.
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#95
Phil

Posted 04 May 2019 - 04:48 AM

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Climatological history for similar MJO/AAM structures suggests a jet extension and zonal pattern trending cooler with time starting ~ May 20th, +/- a few days (exact timing is never certain).

Before that happens, though, anomalous warmth and ridging is likely and has historically been very common before these episodes. 🔥

The most prolific late-spring jet extensions in the 1990s, including 1997 and 1993, were preceded by strong ridges during the month of May. This will be no exception, and some records could fall as this intraseasonal pulse is a strong one.

(And no, Tim, I’m not saying 1993 is a summer analog).

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#96
Phil

Posted 04 May 2019 - 04:54 AM

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The EPS is high and dry through D10.

7WdZiKc.png

But by D15 the firehose is well underway. Plenty more in the pipeline as well, taken verbatim.

LHwYzkT.png

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#97
TT-SEA

Posted 04 May 2019 - 05:19 AM

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The EPS is high and dry through D10.

7WdZiKc.png

But by D15 the firehose is well underway. Plenty more in the pipeline as well, taken verbatim.

LHwYzkT.png



I am not saying you are wrong about the upcoming pattern for the second half of May... I get the same sense that it will be really wet.

But that map above for day 15 is not really a "firehose" for us. The top map is the strange one... showing the PNW being the only place with no precipitation in May.

Also... are these maps available on WB?

#98
TT-SEA

Posted 04 May 2019 - 05:46 AM

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00Z EPS also shows cold air locked in for the Midwest.

 

Normal high in Minneapolis is 66 today and will be in the low 70s soon.    The EPS shows that today will be the warmest day in the next 15 days there with a high of 68.   It shows the next 2 weeks mostly in the 50s with a couple days in the 40s mixed in.     MSP is already at -8 for May after the first 3 days.  



#99
Phil

Posted 04 May 2019 - 05:49 AM

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I am not saying you are wrong about the upcoming pattern for the second half of May... I get the same sense that it will be really wet.

But that map above for day 15 is not really a "firehose" for us. The top map is the strange one... showing the PNW being the only place with no precipitation in May.

Also... are these maps available on WB?


Well there is ensemble spread so of course it’s not going to look like a “firehose” this far out given latitudinal distribution of the jet axis. And the thermal gradient/wave amplitude are weaker at this time of year so precipitation totals will be reduced vs winter under a similar pattern.

And yeah, they’re available. Go to EPS section and select N-Hemi-Mean then Surface-Precipitation. Let me know if you needs links.
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#100
TT-SEA

Posted 04 May 2019 - 05:57 AM

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Well there is ensemble spread so of course it’s not going to look like a “firehose” this far out given latitudinal distribution of the jet axis. And the thermal gradient/wave amplitude are weaker at this time of year so precipitation totals will be reduced vs winter under a similar pattern.

And yeah, they’re available. Go to EPS section and select N-Hemi-Mean then Surface-Precipitation. Let me know if you needs links.

 

 

And sometimes the 500mb pattern can be misleading in terms of precip in the PNW.

 

The 06Z GFS clearly shows the jet extension as well in the 12-16 day period.    But even this is not a firehose pattern for the PNW.

 

gfs_z500a_namer_49.png

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_namer_48.png


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