May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW

[TigerWoodsLibido]

52 and overcast in the s valley. Nice night.

[MossMan]

.05” on the day.

[Jesse]

52 and overcast in the s valley. Nice night.

You really should stop using Weed ‘N Feed. Especially considering your health problems.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

You really should stop using Weed ‘N Feed. Especially considering your health problems.

 

Once there is a constant dry period for a bit, I'm going to just get out there and pull the rest of them up, but I didn't want them to get bigger before I have a chance to do so. Didn't even think about the health risks which isn't a surprise given my typical carelessness.  Sucks not being able to feel independent so I enjoy going outside and doing my best to make the yard look good at the very least. It looks a lot better than it did already.  Pulled up a Hawthorne bush last summer before my surgeries and my GF told me I pushed myself too far. That thing was absolutely brutal.

[Jesse]

Once there is a constant dry period for a bit, I'm going to just get out there and pull the rest of them up, but I didn't want them to get bigger before I have a chance to do so. Didn't even think about the health risks which isn't a surprise given my typical carelessness. Sucks not being able to feel independent so I enjoy going outside and doing my best to make the yard look good at the very least. It looks a lot better than it did already. Pulled up a Hawthorne bush last summer before my surgeries and my GF told me I pushed myself too far. That thing was absolutely brutal.

Yeah, I honestly didn’t know much about the stuff, just knew it was pretty toxic. I did some research after the discussion here and was pretty surprised how bad it is on several different levels. The first thing I thought of was the possible side effects to health and how it might impact you.

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Long day at work. What did I miss? Seems like it is raining outside. 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Guess my brother got about 1.5" of rain today down in Coquille. 

[MossMan]

Up to .16”

[jcmcgaffey]

Fascinating how accurate the models can be even with all the variables to account for. Showed this convergence forming several days ago right around this time too.

[TT-SEA]

ECMWF shows mid 70s for Memorial Day weekend... at least through Sunday which is day 10 now.

[TT-SEA]

Just over an inch of rain here overnight... and about .75 in the valley.

 

But only .16 at SEA for the last 24 hours.

 

Still way below normal everywhere... but everything has been thoroughly watered around here now.    It can stay lush green out here in the Snoqualmie Valley well into July even when its much drier than normal... such as last year.

[TT-SEA]

And this was before the historically wet May pattern across CA...

 

 

 

Also from Cliff:

 

Some areas of California will experience the wettest second half of May in the historical record.  Inches of rain will fall in the lowlands and several feet of snow will pile up in the high Sierra Nevada.

 

Soil and fuel moistures are above normal and the heavy rain and massive snowfall will push off wildfire season by several weeks at at minimum and quite possibly more.    This is very good news for us in the Northwest, since we received substantial smoke aloft from California during the past two years.  Expect less of that unwanted California import this summer.

[TacomaWaWx]

Just over an inch of rain here overnight... and about .75 in the valley.

 

But only .16 at SEA for the last 24 hours.

 

Still way below normal everywhere... but everything has been thoroughly watered around here now. It can stay lush green out here in the Snoqualmie Valley well into July even when its much drier than normal... such as last year.

The convergence zone areas around the central cascades and the central Puget Sound have been blessed with the rain in April/May. Here at my house we’ve only gotten 0.25”-0.30” since this pattern change has occurred this week. Still doubles last May’s total though lol. Hopefully we can get more regionwide rainfall for Western WA.

[TT-SEA]

The convergence zone areas around the central cascades and the central Puget Sound have been blessed with the rain in April/May. Here at my house we’ve only gotten 0.25”-0.30” since this pattern change has occurred this week. Still doubles last May’s total though lol. Hopefully we can get more regionwide rainfall for Western WA.

 

 

Sure seems like May is going to end up significantly drier than normal at this point. 

[TacomaWaWx]

Sure seems like May is going to end up significantly drier than normal at this point.

Seems that way, atleast in the PNW. Guess I need to move to California I hear they have rain there now.

[ShawniganLake]

Stayed dry and breezy overnight here with gusts to around 25mph still. Sun is trying to break through this morning. Low of 50F

[TT-SEA]

As the ECMWF has been showing... the rain is ending in the Seattle area in the early morning and most of the day should be dry.

 

[Phil]

Once there is a constant dry period for a bit, I'm going to just get out there and pull the rest of them up, but I didn't want them to get bigger before I have a chance to do so. Didn't even think about the health risks which isn't a surprise given my typical carelessness. Sucks not being able to feel independent so I enjoy going outside and doing my best to make the yard look good at the very least. It looks a lot better than it did already. Pulled up a Hawthorne bush last summer before my surgeries and my GF told me I pushed myself too far. That thing was absolutely brutal.

If you’re having issues pulling them, try a pickaxe. Trust me man, it’s much easier and it actually tills the soil in the places where the weeds were.

 

We don’t use week killers because they tend to damage tree roots of some species, sometimes fatally if applied for long enough. Also, when you lay the new grass seed, try putting some netting over it so more of it grows.

[Phil]

Also from Cliff:

 

Soil and fuel moistures are above normal and the heavy rain and massive snowfall will push off wildfire season by several weeks at at minimum and quite possibly more. This is very good news for us in the Northwest, since we received substantial smoke aloft from California during the past two years. Expect less of that unwanted California import this summer.

ShawniganLake will be mad. Dude clearly loves smoke.

[Front Ranger]

As the ECMWF has been showing... the rain is ending in the Seattle area in the early morning and most of the day should be dry.

 

Well after 5 am, though, and it will be raining north of Seattle for a bit.

[Phil]

FWIW, 44/52 EPS members have substantial precipitation across both WA/OR next week. The 200mb jet will be somewhat farther north, so we’ll see what happens.

[ShawniganLake]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Looks like over 2" of rain at Meacham in the past 24 hours. Good to see.

[Omegaraptor]

NAM still shows a pretty substantial storm for Washington County on Saturday evening. Very good chance it hits my area, as well.

[TT-SEA]

Well after 5 am, though, and it will be raining north of Seattle for a bit.

ECMWF only shows 6 hour blocks of time. I said it looks like it would be winding down in the early morning... probably around 5 a.m.

 

The ECMWF was right... it showed very light precip in Seattle in the 5-11 a.m. period.   It also shows no precip in the Seattle area after 11 a.m.

[Farmboy]

[SilverFallsAndrew]

47 and foggy this morning. 0.07" in the bucket since midnight. 0.83" on the month. 

[Jesse]

ShawniganLake will be mad. Dude clearly loves smoke.

[TacomaWaWx]

51 and cloudy at 8:30am. Was breezy all of last night and still a bit breezy this morning with SW winds.

[Kayla]

40° and raining here this morning. I guess that is just typical mid-May fare around here.

 

It kind of is at 5,000' and north of 45º.

[TT-SEA]

FWIW, 44/52 EPS members have substantial precipitation across both WA/OR next week. The 200mb jet will be somewhat farther north, so we’ll see what happens.

 

 

Pretty sure this is related to low resolution on the EPS precip maps.

 

The ECMWF shows the same 500mb pattern as the EPS for next week and into the weekend... and it also shows convective precip in the mountains of BC, OR, and WA on several days later next week while its sunny and in the 70s in the lowlands.   This probably looks like widespread precip to you on the EPS maps.

 

The big rain event for this week is over now and both SEA and PDX are around .33 for the month... so it has not produced the advertised soaking rains yet.

 

And the devil is in the details of course.    For example... the pattern shown below for tomorrow is going to result in a partly sunny day for the Seattle area with a high in the low 70s.    The jet extension definitely arrived... but its focused just a little too far south.

 

[TT-SEA]

The key to late next week and into the weekend is related to a piece of energy rotating around the offshore ridge.   The GFS keeps insisting this will round the top of the ridge and move into the PNW... while the ECMWF absorbs it into the deep trough near the Bering Sea.   

 

Here is the new 12Z GFS for next Wednesday...

 

 

And the 00Z ECMWF at the same time... 

 

 

 

And no sign of it on the 00Z EPS mean at that time...

 

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Pretty sure this is related to low resolution on the EPS precip maps.

 

The ECMWF shows the same 500mb pattern as the EPS for next week and into the weekend... and it also shows convective precip in the mountains of BC, OR, and WA on several days later next week while its sunny and in the 70s in the lowlands.   This probably looks like widespread precip to you on the EPS maps.

 

The big rain event for this week is over now and both SEA and PDX are around .33 for the month... so it has not produced the advertised soaking rains yet.

 

And the devil is in the details of course.    For example... the pattern shown below for tomorrow is going to result in a partly sunny day for the Seattle area with a high in the low 70s.    The jet extension definitely arrived... but its focused just a little too far south.

 

 

I never really thought it looked like a very wet pattern for W. Oregon at least.

[TT-SEA]

I never really thought it looked like a very wet pattern for W. Oregon at least.

 

 

Lots of low resolution EPS total precip maps posted last week indicating that we would be very wet by this point and getting wetter for the foreseeable future.  

 

Did not happen.  

 

I also pointed out last week that the EPS precip maps did not make sense considering that 500mb mean showed the trough moving east next week and ridging building in... Phil said I did not understand the EPS mean.   And yet... it appears now that the precip maps were way overstated and a ridge actually will be building in.

[TT-SEA]

Even with the GFS showing that ULL rounding the top of the ridge next week... it still shows it becoming warm and dry over the holiday weekend.

 

The FV3 has been in general agreement with the GFS... but the new 12Z FV3 abandons the idea of a ULL moving in from the north and keeps a ridge over us through next weekend.   Now in agreement with the ECMWF and EPS.

[Kayla]

Lots of low resolution EPS total precip maps posted last week indicating that we would be very wet by this point and getting wetter for the foreseeable future.  

 

Did not happen.  

 

Yeah...long term local climate experience came into play on this one.

 

I think we all saw this not being some sort of historic May pattern for the PNW. 

[TT-SEA]

00Z GFS for Memorial Day...

 

 

 

And the new 12Z GFS:

 

[Front Ranger]

00Z GFS for Memorial Day...

 

 

 

And the new 12Z GFS:

 

 

 

Good thing Farmboy got out of Quartzite!

[TT-SEA]

FV3 certainly going with a warm weekend next week now...

 

[TT-SEA]

FWIW... the 12Z GEM jumped on board with the ridging next week and through the weekend as well.   Big shift from its 00Z run.

 

Phil reported that about 80% of the EPS members show substantial precip for us next week.    But there is actually a good chance that the lowland areas of WA and OR get no precip at all later next week and weekend.