May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW

[GHweatherChris]

Just another normal day on Tim's Weather Forums! #postcountmatters

[TT-SEA]

Just another normal day on Tim's Weather Forums! #postcountmatters

 

 

Everyone is free to analyze the models and upcoming weather on this weather forum.   Its certainly more pertinent and interesting than arguing for pages about what constitutes fire.    

[GHweatherChris]

Everyone is free to analyze the models and upcoming weather on this weather forum. Its certainly more pertinent and interesting than arguing for pages about what constitutes fire.

Boring weather patterns are far from interesting, time for some heat!

[TacomaWaWx]

FWIW... the 12Z GEM jumped on board with the ridging next week and through the weekend as well. Big shift from its 00Z run.

 

Phil reported that about 80% of the EPS members show substantial precip for us next week. But there is actually a good chance that the lowland areas of WA and OR get no precip at all later next week and weekend.

We’ve had a few times where June ended up with more rain than May. Could possibly be the case this year. Either way the “wet pattern” definitely hasn’t been impressive for anyone in OR or WA. More rain than last May but not by much so far.

[TT-SEA]

10 a.m. and skies are clearing in Seattle... not really a wet day.

 

[jcmcgaffey]

After last night and this morning. I am above average rainfall for May to date and even if I don’t get any more rain the rest of the month will be close to normal for the month. I have been in the sweet spot for rain the last year or so. The typical convergence zone has been further south than normal the last year or so. Typically I run drier than SEA but the last year or so have been running wetter.

[TT-SEA]

After last night and this morning. I am above average rainfall for May to date and even if I don’t get any more rain the rest of the month will be close to normal for the month. I have been in the sweet spot for rain the last year or so. The typical convergence zone has been further south than normal the last year or so. Typically I run drier than SEA but the last year or so have been running wetter.

 

 

Obviously way wetter.   And SEA WFO was only at .56 for the month as of midnight.

 

Its not even close to normal out here and we were drenched last night.     Very little chance of even approaching normal in my area this month.

[TT-SEA]

Although I see that Everett picked up almost an inch of rain from this system... just a little less than here.

[Jesse]

Everyone is free to analyze the models and upcoming weather on this weather forum.

Except that anyone and everyone who tends to like weather that doesn’t fit your narrative will be hen pecked into oblivion if they even attempt to match your level of rhetoric.

[TT-SEA]

Except that anyone and everyone who tends to like weather that doesn’t fit your narrative will be hen pecked into oblivion if they even attempt to match your level of rhetoric.

 

 

I love discussion about the models and upcoming weather... no matter what kind of weather you like.   Everything I have posted today is objectively looking at the models.   Tell me where I am wrong and we can discuss.  Or you can just assume it will be very wet for the rest of the month based on Phil's analysis of each EPS member.   Its up to you. 

 

The nice thing is that nature does not care what any of us want.   Its going to do what its going to do.  

[Jesse]

I love discussion about the models and upcoming weather... no matter what kind of weather you like. Everything I have posted today is objectively looking at the models. Tell me where I am wrong and we can discuss.

 

The nice thing is that nature does not care what any of us want. Its going to do what its going to do.

Yet what I said is still 100% accurate.

[jcmcgaffey]

Obviously way wetter. And SEA WFO was only at .56 for the month as of midnight.

 

Its not even close to normal out here and we were drenched last night. Very little chance of even approaching normal in my area this month.

I don’t think I got more than most folks (got .75 since midnight). I just normally run drier than most locations but have been getting lucky with the rain set up recently. So I am obviously an anomaly compared to most other locations. Just thought it was interesting.

[TT-SEA]

I don’t think I got more than most folks (got .75 since midnight). I just normally run drier than most locations but have been getting lucky with the rain set up recently. So I am obviously an anomaly compared to most other locations. Just thought it was interesting.

How much for the month there? We only had one other rainy system this month and that was on Tuesday and did not amount to much.

[Front Ranger]

After last night and this morning. I am above average rainfall for May to date and even if I don’t get any more rain the rest of the month will be close to normal for the month. I have been in the sweet spot for rain the last year or so. The typical convergence zone has been further south than normal the last year or so. Typically I run drier than SEA but the last year or so have been running wetter.

 

Granted, this map has not updated through this morning yet. But still, your location is a massive outlier if what you're saying is accurate.

 

[Front Ranger]

Although I see that Everett picked up almost an inch of rain from this system... just a little less than here.

 

Yeah, but they're still not near average precip for May...they average 2.34" there.

[TT-SEA]

Yeah, but they're still not near average precip for May...they average 2.34" there.

 

That was my next question... what is he considering normal.

[Front Ranger]

One place that is seeing impressive rain totals this month is Sacramento. They're already at the wettest May since 2002, with plenty more on the way. 

 

Record is 3.13" from 1948, and it may not be out of reach.

[TacomaWaWx]

After last night and this morning. I am above average rainfall for May to date and even if I don’t get any more rain the rest of the month will be close to normal for the month. I have been in the sweet spot for rain the last year or so. The typical convergence zone has been further south than normal the last year or so. Typically I run drier than SEA but the last year or so have been running wetter.

You’ve still got some work to do to get to average for the month. Even the places that got the C-zone yesterday are still going to be behind for the month.

[Front Ranger]

That was my next question... what is he considering normal.

 

I'd imagine May normal for his area is around 2". I don't think anyone in the Puget Sound region has seen 2" this month.

[TacomaWaWx]

I'd imagine May normal for his area is around 2". I don't think anyone in the Puget Sound region has seen 2" this month.

Some places got about 1” last night in the C-Zone, but yeah nobody’s even close to 2” yet.

[TT-SEA]

I'd imagine May normal for his area is around 2". I don't think anyone in the Puget Sound region has seen 2" this month.

 

 

Not even in my very wet area.

[Jesse]

https://youtu.be/3qVPNONdF58

[Front Ranger]

https://youtu.be/3qVPNONdF58

 

One of my favorite songs that came out of the '90s. 

[TT-SEA]

And of course... once there is some model agreement then there is change on the ECMWF.   

 

[Jesse]

[TT-SEA]

[Jesse]

Nah... 12Z ECMWF is still dry and sunny.

Step in the right direction though.

[TT-SEA]

Step in the right direction though.

Not really. Still lines up well with the 12Z run yesterday. Not changing much. This run is actually a little warmer.

[Jesse]

[Deweydog]

Happy Friday!!!

[TT-SEA]

And the 12Z ECMWF does not show all the mountain convection next weekend... so its actually drier overall than the 00Z run. Its also warmer than the 00Z run for Sunday... and Monday is even warmer than Sunday. Nice run.

[TacomaWaWx]

Up to 55 degrees as of 12pm. Partly sunny now but still a decent SW breeze going here.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows total rain of about .20 from now through the end of the run for the Seattle area... and out here as well.  

 

Would have been nice to get another decent rain event out of this pattern.  

[TacomaWaWx]

12Z ECMWF shows total rain of about .20 from now through the end of the run for the Seattle area... and out here as well.

 

Would have been nice to get another decent rain event out of this pattern.

Seattle will probably end up with about a whopping 0.50” total for the month of may.

[Jesse]

Was sure I’d see our region getting blessed with rain as I departed for our trip. Pretty depressing note to leave the country on. Ugh.

[Phil]

Pretty sure this is related to low resolution on the EPS precip maps.

 

The ECMWF shows the same 500mb pattern as the EPS for next week and into the weekend... and it also shows convective precip in the mountains of BC, OR, and WA on several days later next week while its sunny and in the 70s in the lowlands. This probably looks like widespread precip to you on the EPS maps.

 

The big rain event for this week is over now and both SEA and PDX are around .33 for the month... so it has not produced the advertised soaking rains yet.

 

And the devil is in the details of course. For example... the pattern shown below for tomorrow is going to result in a partly sunny day for the Seattle area with a high in the low 70s. The jet extension definitely arrived... but its focused just a little too far south.

 

Hmm..the EPS meteograms didn’t have much rainfall at SEA or PDX until the middle of next week (though some members had much more early on). So it wouldn’t surprise me if the next one ends up delivering more.

 

Upper level dynamics might be more effectively oriented.

[Phil]

Lots of low resolution EPS total precip maps posted last week indicating that we would be very wet by this point and getting wetter for the foreseeable future.

 

Did not happen.

 

I also pointed out last week that the EPS precip maps did not make sense considering that 500mb mean showed the trough moving east next week and ridging building in... Phil said I did not understand the EPS mean. And yet... it appears now that the precip maps were way overstated and a ridge actually will be building in.

You’re getting ahead of yourself again. That said, I don’t want to rehash this debate for the unpteenth time. The end results will leave little doubt.

 

I’m confident there will not be any prolonged ridging in the near future.

[TT-SEA]

Hmm..the EPS meteograms didn’t have much rainfall at SEA or PDX until the middle of next week (though some members had much more early on). So it wouldn’t surprise me if the next one ends up delivering more.

 

Upper level dynamics might be more effectively oriented.

 

 

Not sure what you are talking about.   

 

 

Here is the new 12Z EPS mean for one week from today.

 

I don't care what you say about dynamics orientation and smoothed mean maps... that is not a wet pattern in any way.    And even a wet looking pattern this week has delivered very little rain up here... its all in CA.

[TT-SEA]

You’re getting ahead of yourself again. That said, I don’t want to rehash this debate all over again.

 

We’ll see what happens when it’s all said and done. I’m confident there will not be any prolonged ridging in the near future.

 

 

Not ahead of myself... I am looking back.   Early last week there were many very wet EPS total precip maps posted for this current week.   I said they were low resolution and likely overdone.   

 

The results for this week are in... and it was not very wet.

[Phil]

That’s Friday, two days beyond the Mon-Wed period.

 

I’m considering providing you a link to my stormvista account so you can view the individual members, as long as you agree not to post them publicly. I think it might help clear up the confusion.