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May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW


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That’s Friday, two days beyond the Mon-Wed period.

 

I’m considering providing you a link to my stormvista account so you can view the individual members, as long as you agree not to post them publicly. I think it might help clear up the confusion.

Sadly this argument will not being the region much needed precip, Phil.

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That’s Friday, two days beyond the Mon-Wed period.

 

I’m considering providing you a link to my stormvista account so you can view the individual members, as long as you agree not to post them publicly. I think it might help clear up the confusion.

I can see individual members on WB. Low resolution and have been way too wet. And you don't need those maps for 3 days out anyways. The ECMWF operational is high resolution and very good at that range.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Sadly this argument will not being the region much needed precip, Phil.

 

He will keep trolling me about some phantom wet pattern that is probably not in the cards... no matter how hard he tries.

 

At least not yet.   Maybe in June.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You’re getting ahead of yourself again. That said, I don’t want to rehash this debate for the unpteenth time. The end results will leave little doubt.

 

I’m confident there will not be any prolonged ridging in the near future.

 

These are the type of statements that come back to haunt you, Phil...

A forum for the end of the world.

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These are the type of statements that come back to haunt you, Phil...

 

 

Pretty vague and subjective though.   So he will end up right no matter what actually happens.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Granted, this map has not updated through this morning yet. But still, your location is a massive outlier if what you're saying is accurate.

 

attachicon.gifMonthPNormWRCC-NW.png

I know I am an outlier and in a unique spot because of the way the recent weather pattern has set up this last week or so.  SEA average to date is 1.01" for the month and annual May precip is around 1.6", my small area (NW Seattle) runs drier than SEA and I am over 1" for the month already based on my neighbors weather station.  The map you posted above generalizes all the little nuances around the puget sound.  I know I am not backing this up with top scientific data but I have always been fascinated with the little nuances around here in regards to weather.  I remember having to read Cliff Mass's book on local weather when taking a few meteorology classes at UW but he had some great maps that showed more details and we talked about how the olympic rain shadow angles down into Seattle from the NW so that even small distances within Seattle itself going NW can have large annual precip differences.

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I know I am an outlier and in a unique spot because of the way the recent weather pattern has set up this last week or so.  SEA average to date is 1.01" for the month and annual May precip is around 1.6", my small area (NW Seattle) runs drier than SEA and I am over 1" for the month already based on my neighbors weather station.  The map you posted above generalizes all the little nuances around the puget sound.  I know I am not backing this up with top scientific data but I have always been fascinated with the little nuances around here in regards to weather.  I remember having to read Cliff Mass's book on local weather when taking a few meteorology classes at UW but he had some great maps that showed more details and we talked about how the olympic rain shadow angles down into Seattle from the NW so that even small distances within Seattle itself going NW can have large annual precip differences.

 

 

Normal rain at SEA for the entire month of May is actually 1.94 inches.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Dreary day in Seattle. Real bummer for my friend and his girlfriend who are visiting...I told them all about the spectacular mountain/water views, which they obviously can't see right now with the visibility.

 

attachicon.gifScreenshot_32.png

 

 

Much nicer day today... hopefully your friend is still here.

 

sea.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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These are the type of statements that come back to haunt you, Phil...

How’s that 2018 repeat going? :rolleyes:

 

The pattern is literally almost a perfect inverse to last year across the NH right now. Lol.

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How’s that 2018 repeat going? :rolleyes:

 

The pattern is literally almost a perfect inverse to last year across the NH right now. Lol.

 

 

And yet... very similar results around here.  

 

Actually running a little warmer than May 2018 in the Seattle area at least.   And only slightly wetter.

 

With warmer and drier weather ahead.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Pretty vague and subjective though. So he will end up right no matter what actually happens.

Prolonged = more than a week.

 

I don’t see that happening. Nothing to support it.

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And yet... very similar results around here.

There’s more rain in the pipeline this month.

 

And next month too after a dry spell in the middle.

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There’s more rain in the pipeline this month.

 

And next month too after a dry spell in the middle.

 

 

Not much.   I know how to read the ECMWF surface maps and that takes us almost to the end of the month now. 

 

Low resolution, overstated EPS total precip and individual member maps notwithstanding.

 

I don't know much about June yet... but I could see it being wetter than normal.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Prolonged = more than a week.

 

I don’t see that happening. Nothing to support it.

 

 

I doubt ridging last more than a week as well.  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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And yet... very similar results around here.

 

Actually running a little warmer than May 2018 in the Seattle area at least. And only slightly wetter.

 

With warmer and drier weather ahead.

Seattle is 3 inches behind average on total rainfall for the year so far. Even though the pattern over the pacific has been different than 1 year ago pretty close to the same result has been achieved. We Need to pull the jet stream away from California.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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Seattle is 3 inches behind average on total rainfall for the year so far. Even though the pattern over the pacific has been different than 1 year ago pretty close to the same result has been achieved. We Need to pull the jet stream away from California.

 

 

The overall pattern has been very different... but the results have been similar since March.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I wonder what the point of nice weather, sunny and dry, is when one won’t go outside and enjoy it but instead sit and talk about it on a forum. Lol. Baffles me.

 

Are you referring to me?   I will be outside all day tomorrow.    But I have a mobile device that allows me to connect to the internet from anywhere.   Really cool technology.  You should check it out.

 

Today was not that great... turning nicer now.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Seattle is 3 inches behind average on total rainfall for the year so far. Even though the pattern over the pacific has been different than 1 year ago pretty close to the same result has been achieved. We Need to pull the jet stream away from California.

Seasonality could help there, with time.

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I wonder what the point of nice weather, sunny and dry, is when one won’t go outside and enjoy it but instead sit and talk about it on a forum. Lol. Baffles me.

Really. That's why this weather is such a pisser. I'd much rather be outside doing something than sitting around.

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

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And yet... very similar results around here.

 

Actually running a little warmer than May 2018 in the Seattle area at least. And only slightly wetter.

 

With warmer and drier weather ahead.

But is it actually similar?

 

Last year there was a sharp N/S precip gradient. This year there is an inverted gradient (w/ respect to climo). So it’s an entirely different pattern.

 

And by consequence, it will evolve different as we head into the heart of summer, as well.

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But is it actually similar?

 

Last year there was a sharp N/S precip gradient. This year there is an inverted gradient (w/ respect to climo). So it’s an entirely different pattern.

 

And by consequence, it will evolve different as we head into the heart of summer, as well.

 

 

I don't disagree with any of this.  I said the pattern is very different overall.   But the results are quite similar around here since March.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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How’s that 2018 repeat going? :rolleyes:

 

The pattern is literally almost a perfect inverse to last year across the NH right now. Lol.

I never predicted a 2018 repeat. I actually said awhile back that I see this warm season going more like 2016. Said that about 6 weeks ago.

A forum for the end of the world.

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I wonder what the point of nice weather, sunny and dry, is when one won’t go outside and enjoy it but instead sit and talk about it on a forum. Lol. Baffles me.

Well it’s a free country he’s entitled to do whatever he wants. All you can do is worry about you and what you do.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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FWIW, the 12z EPS control run has that ULL diving in from the GOA, similar to some of the GFS runs.

 

There’s a large cluster of ensemble members that also take that route.

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Today turned out pretty nice over yesterday's fog and rain. Really came down overnight. Almost an inch. In the low 60s here.

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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FWIW, the 12z EPS control run has that ULL diving in from the GOA, similar to some of the GFS runs.

 

There’s a large cluster of ensemble members that also take that route.

 

Yeah... just noticed the control run.

 

Either way it still ends up being a nice weekend.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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