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May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW

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#1801
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted Today, 04:33 PM

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EPS shows one of those very brief ridges that Phil talks about... this one might only last 12 days. Blink and you will miss it.


A long stretch of dry and warm weather. Buckle up for a lot of that going forward. As long as we have fewer 90+ days.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Feb 25)
Coldest low: 20 (Mar 4)
Days with below freezing temps: 46
Total snowfall: 20.2"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#1802
MossMan

Posted Today, 04:42 PM

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Drizzle finally stopped and the clouds are trying hard to break up.

#1803
Front Ranger

Posted Today, 05:15 PM

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EPS shows one of those very brief ridges that Phil talks about... this one might only last 12 days.   Blink and you will miss it.   

 

About a week shorter than the last one. Baby steps.


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It's just the internet. Don't take it personal.


#1804
Front Ranger

Posted Today, 05:27 PM

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Drizzle finally stopped and the clouds are trying hard to break up.

 

https://www.youtube....h?v=tbad22CKlB4


It's just the internet. Don't take it personal.


#1805
Phil

Posted Today, 06:06 PM

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So much for EPS “consistency”.

Total breakdown during the second half of week two.

JzVkx1V.png

#1806
GHweatherChris

Posted Today, 06:07 PM

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So much for EPS “consistency”.

Total breakdown during the second half of week two.

JzVkx1V.png

360 hour map, lol! That would actually be early week 3...
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#1807
TT-SEA

Posted Today, 06:09 PM

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So much for EPS “consistency”.

Total breakdown during the second half of week two.

JzVkx1V.png

 

Nice try.

 

That is a new timeframe coming into range... and is still 14 or 15 days out.    :rolleyes:

 

Just stop Phil.   Its been very consistent.   And if it stays consistent then that troughy period will hold and actually happen in 2 weeks.   Time will tell. 



#1808
Phil

Posted Today, 06:09 PM

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Looking at the individual EPS members, there is no worthwhile agreement or even structural clustering between the ensemble members after D12.

Just a giant clusterf**k with a few super anomalous solutions skewing the entire mean. Hilarious, but not surprising given the seasonal transition over the Eurasian continent.

#1809
TT-SEA

Posted Today, 06:11 PM

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Looking at the individual EPS members, there is no worthwhile agreement or even structural clustering between the ensemble members after D12.

Just a giant clusterf**k with a few super anomalous solutions skewing the entire mean. Hilarious.

 

 

After day 12.   Interesting.    

 

Maybe one of the anomalously ridgy solutions will end up right.   But the mean starts to look a little troughy in 2 weeks.



#1810
Phil

Posted Today, 06:13 PM

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Nice try.

That is a new timeframe coming into range... and is still 14 or 15 days out. :rolleyes:

Just stop Phil. Its been very consistent. And if it stays consistent then that troughy period will hold and actually happen in 2 weeks. Time will tell.


Woah, are you okay? I’m just conveying the reality of the situation, not trolling you. I haven’t even read through the thread yet.

I didn’t even make a prediction as to what I think will happen, specifically.

#1811
TT-SEA

Posted Today, 06:15 PM

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Woah, are you okay?

I’m just conveying the reality of the situation, not trolling you. I haven’t even read through the thread yet.

 

 

Doing great. 

 

Just pointing out that you are saying the EPS is not consistent by highlighting a timeframe that just came into view today.   Seems like a desperate attempt at trolling.    As usual.   :)



#1812
Omegaraptor

Posted Today, 06:19 PM

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Clown range is clown range.

 

There's a reason I don't look at models after hour 240. They always show record cold / record hot garbage and then it changes 100% of the time whenever the next model comes out.

 

April 1 was a 69/50 day in Portland. 13 days or so before, the GFS was showing something like 44/29 on that day. 


2018 in Portland had 27.30" rainfall, which is the 8th driest year on record and 8.73" below normal

 

Current rainfall for PDX in 2019 is 11.74”, which is 4.53” below normal as of May 17


#1813
Phil

Posted Today, 06:22 PM

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Well, I read through the page above. I admit I lol’ed.

Ordinarily I’d respond, but I think I’ll let this play out, then bump a few posts down the road. I’ve already karma’d myself into a massive pre-Memorial Day SE-Ridge, which seemed to magically appear on the models right when I started trolling Tim. I won’t risk prolonging it. :P
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#1814
TT-SEA

Posted Today, 06:25 PM

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Side note... the EPS basically shows 850mb temps above normal for the next 14 straight days with the exception of Friday afternoon.  

 

This will be a very brief interlude of warmer weather before we get back to default cold and troughing.    



#1815
Phil

Posted Today, 06:28 PM

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Doing great.

Just pointing out that you are saying the EPS is not consistent by highlighting a timeframe that just came into view today. Seems like a desperate attempt at trolling. As usual. :)


I wasn’t trolling you (this time).

Yesterday’s 00z EPS was more internally homogenous (better agreement and clustering among the ensemble members) than today’s 12z run.

#1816
TT-SEA

Posted Today, 06:30 PM

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I wasn’t trolling you (this time).

Yesterday’s 00z EPS was more internally homogenous (better agreement and clustering among the ensemble members) than today’s 12z run.

 

 

In the 13-15 day range?   Whatever.   

 

The mean has been very consistent.   It feels like all of the models have been flailing around lately... even the ECMWF to some degree... while the EPS mean has been quite steady.  

 

The pattern break this week came into view first on the EPS and it never wavered.   And its working out just like it showed. 



#1817
Phil

Posted Today, 06:40 PM

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BTW, here’s the tropical forcing coinciding with the loss of AAM over the NH and the ASM inception (which is behind the jet retraction and upcoming episode of ridging over NW North America).

dWFSeuX.png

The fact a STJ/weak 4-Corners High regime appears to persist in the modeling along with a low pass divergence signal across the equatorial Pacific and subsidence across the subtropical Indo-Pacific speaks to the +ENSO/narrow HC low frequency state that appears to be operational right now.

#1818
Phil

Posted Today, 06:50 PM

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So when reading into modeled patterns and making predictions based on them, it’s important to keep both the subseasonal state and background state in mind, because the wave structure will seek to revert to the latter following high frequency perturbation.

We saw the effects of the dynamic final warming on the planetary wave state (re-ignition of the intraseasonal cycle via a reduction in static stability brought on by the coinciding invigoration of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation during the transition) and another deceptive transition will be underway shortly with the ASM inception and MJO/CCKW return to the EHEM during a mature +QBO, where it will either die/yield to the low frequency state or constructively recycle the wavenumber to seasonality and begin anew..which is something the modeling will NOT pick up on this far in advance. (Hint hint).

Definitely not the time to be standing on a pedestal if you’re a long range forecaster (and I’m not going to make any bold calls until the future of the intraseasonal cycle is clarified dynamically).

#1819
High Desert Mat?

Posted Today, 07:11 PM

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So when reading into modeled patterns and making predictions based on them, it’s important to keep both the subseasonal state and background state in mind, because the wave structure will seek to revert to the latter following high frequency perturbation.

We saw the effects of the dynamic final warming on the planetary wave state (re-ignition of the intraseasonal cycle via a reduction in static stability brought on by the coinciding invigoration of the Brewer-Dobson Circulation during the transition) and another deceptive transition will be underway shortly with the ASM inception and MJO/CCKW return to the EHEM during a mature +QBO, where it will either die/yield to the low frequency state or constructively recycle the wavenumber to seasonality and begin anew..which is something the modeling will NOT pick up on this far in advance. (Hint hint).

Definitely not the time to be standing on a pedestal if you’re a long range forecaster (and I’m not going to make any bold calls until the future of the intraseasonal cycle is clarified dynamically).


Am I the only one confused by this? Is it some sort of jib job or can someone translate besides Phil and his usual tongues that he’ll try to twist in his own “high” language? Just wanting some clarification on this.

#1820
MtScottJosh

Posted Today, 07:13 PM

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Maybe if I fed him a big salad he would understand the difference between Sanka and real decaf. Probably not. He strikes me as someone that goes to Mendies.

#1821
High Desert Mat?

Posted Today, 07:16 PM

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Maybe if I fed him a big salad he would understand the difference between Sanka and real decaf. Probably not. He strikes me as someone that goes to Mendies.


That’s a nice suit. Did he crumble crackers in it?