May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW

[TacomaWaWx]

Well I’m hoping for some rain later on this month or next but until then this weather is absolutely fantastic. Hoping to get a few days of kayaking in out past Allyn towards harstine island in the next couple weeks. Trying to get adventurous before there’s potentially smoky conditions later this summer. Hopefully not.

[ShawniganLake]

That was 06z with the chilly 2m temps. 12z paints a different story.

I was looking at the 6z. Surface temp maps in the long range are particularly useless

[TT-SEA]

Local snowpack

 

 

 

0DF11911-AAA6-4DF7-9D52-1F7FD7499787.png

 

 

Main reservoir for the Cowichan valley

 

 

CCAA2466-2721-40F8-B1E5-C0FFF153D500.png

 

 

That sucks.

 

Chester Morse Reservoir (Cedar Lake) which is the water supply for the Seattle area and a few miles from here is completely full.

 

Normal full lake level is 1,560 feet... its currently at 1,563 feet.  

 

Here is a picture of the lake from a previous year:

 

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-dextMrNNVFI/Vb67X8tQmfI/AAAAAAAACEI/lQB0CKEsG7o/s1600/DSC_0602.JPG

[TT-SEA]

Lake Sammamish (natural lake) is completely full as well.    I bet some docks are close to being submerged which happens every spring.    Might see it firsthand on Friday or Saturday.

[TacomaWaWx]

That sucks.

 

Chester Morse Reservoir (Cedar Lake) which is the water supply for the Seattle area and a few miles from here is completely full.

 

Normal full lake level is 1,560 feet... its currently at 1,563 feet.

 

Here is a picture of the lake from a previous year:

 

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-dextMrNNVFI/Vb67X8tQmfI/AAAAAAAACEI/lQB0CKEsG7o/s1600/DSC_0602.JPG

Yeah seems like your area in the central cascades took most of the rainfall with the convergence zones setting up over the central sound last month. Atleast the main Seattle area should be fine with water with the morse resivor doing well. Ross lake on the north cascades highway is projected to be 25’ below normal. Goes to show that some places were much drier than others especially up in northern Washington.

[ShawniganLake]

Lake Sammamish (natural lake) is completely full as well. I bet some docks are close to being submerged which happens every spring. Might see it firsthand on Friday or Saturday.

Shawnigan Lake only has minimal level control and it is full. Or was in early April at last update. So locally we are probably okay, assuming a near normal summer ahead.

[TT-SEA]

12Z ECMWF shows a gorgeous Mother's Day weekend... going to be lots of people on the lake if it holds.   Including us. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Another gorgeous day. Would be fine if the whole summer were like this with the occasional, needed rainfall at night.

[TT-SEA]

Total rain for next 10 days per 12Z ECMWF...

 

[Farmboy]

12Z ECMWF shows a gorgeous Mother's Day weekend... going to be lots of people on the lake if it holds. Including us.

If they had any humanity, they'd spend the weekend brooding over the health of the trees...

[TT-SEA]

If they had any humanity, they'd spend the weekend brooding over the health of the trees...

We just enjoy whatever nice weather nature sends our way. No guilt in this climate.

[Farmboy]

Total rain for next 10 days per 12Z ECMWF...

Is there any way you could post the 2m temps for days 9 & 10 of the 12z Euro OP?

[TT-SEA]

Is there any way you could post the 2m temps for days 9 & 10 of the 12z Euro OP?

Operational run ends at 5 a.m. on day 10.

 

Here is day 8 and 9 though...

 

 

[Phil]

 

Sure. Must be an Oregon thing.

 

It rained 32 days in a row here from mid-May through mid-June in 2010. Unless you are a duck or a slug... it can impact outdoor plans here. Many Memorial Day weekends and graduation ceremonies will agree. Even the 4th of July can be impacted by rain. It was pouring rain here on the morning of the 4th in 2016 as we packed the car and headed east to Couer D'Alene.

 

Not saying I don't want some rain each week though... because that is ideal.

Who cares? Wear a poncho. You’re literally made of rain.

[TT-SEA]

Who cares? Wear a poncho. You’re literally made of rain.

 

 

Stupid analogy that you use all the time.   We get plenty of rain.   On 50% of the days annually here.   Not worried about it.   

 

Are you actually a fish?   Why do you live on land?

[Phil]

That sucks.

 

Chester Morse Reservoir (Cedar Lake) which is the water supply for the Seattle area and a few miles from here is completely full.

 

Normal full lake level is 1,560 feet... its currently at 1,563 feet.

 

Here is a picture of the lake from a previous year:

 

http://4.bp.blogspot.com/-dextMrNNVFI/Vb67X8tQmfI/AAAAAAAACEI/lQB0CKEsG7o/s1600/DSC_0602.JPG

Probably because they can manipulate the water level to some degree. Basically the entire region has been drier than average since last winter.

[Phil]

If they had any humanity, they'd spend the weekend brooding over the health of the trees...

That cool, zonal pattern is coming later this month.

 

I’ll enjoy watching you squirm.

[TT-SEA]

Probably because they can manipulate the water level to some degree. Basically the entire region has been drier than average since last winter.

 

 

It has been drier than normal here too.   

 

But I suspect even drier than normal here is still plenty of rain and snow to keep it full most of the time.

[Phil]

Stupid analogy that you use all the time. We get plenty of rain. On 50% of the days annually here. Not worried about it.

 

Are you actually a fish? Why do you live on land?

My analogy is factual, though. Yours isn’t.

 

- Water does represent the majority of our body-mass.

 

- We are not fish.

 

So it rains, and you get a little bit wet or wear a poncho. Meanwhile, the trees throw a party and the microbes in the soil cheer? Oh the horror.

[TT-SEA]

My analogy is factual, though. Yours isn’t.

 

- Water does represent the majority of our body-mass.

 

- We are not fish.

 

 

Who cares?

 

We have an abundance of water here.    All good.   Does not mean I want to be on the boat in 55-degree drizzle.   But 80-degree sunshine is perfection.   That is how this STUPID conversation started.    

 

I don't care what percentage of my body is water... being cold and wet is not enjoyable.    And nothing you can say can change that.   Its a stupid analogy.  

[Phil]

It has been drier than normal here too.

 

But I suspect even drier than normal here is still plenty of rain and snow to keep it full most of the time.

Of course. But the lake is full because the spillways or whatever were closed. Because of the dryness and lack of water inflow. Important context in a subliminally subjective conversation.

[TT-SEA]

Oh course. But the lake is full because the spillways or whatever were closed. Because of the dryness and lack of water inflow. Important context

Don't care.

 

Our natural lakes like Lake Sammamish are full to the brim as well. I will post a pic on Saturday.

[Farmboy]

That cool, zonal pattern is coming later this month.

I’ll enjoy watching you squirm.

If it does, I doubt it'll affect me too much.

[Phil]

Don't care.

 

Our natural lakes like Lake Sammamish are full to the brim as well. I will post a pic on Saturday.

I believe you.

[Phil]

[TT-SEA]

[Phil]

If it does, I doubt it'll affect me too much.

So your plan is to continue tent-hopping across the American Desert, fleeing from rain/clouds into perpetuity?

 

Sounds like fun.

[Phil]

[Omegaraptor]

I wish we could manage 1" of rain in one day in late May here.

[TT-SEA]

[Phil]

I wish we could manage 1" of rain in one day in late May here.

You probably can. I’m sure it’s happened at some point during the Holocene interglacial.

 

In fact, Tim’s weather manipulation device is probably the only thing stopping it.

[Farmboy]

So your plan is to continue tent-hopping across the American Desert, fleeing from rain/clouds into perpetuity?

Sounds like fun.

No, I eventually want to purchase land in a rural area somewhere when I can pay cash for it. Somewhere with a tolerable year-round climate.

[Phil]

Great.

 

We live in different places.

 

Stop acting like we should have the same concerns as you in the swamp. This is a PNW weather forum.

Don’t worry brother, I’m done trolling for now.

 

This last bit is just my honest observation. For whatever it’s worth, I’ve been a tree-hugging, nature obsessed geek since I could first walk/talk. I’ve been watching the ebb and flow of the weather and seasons since I was a toddler in kindergarten, if not before (I was obsessed with it so early..even before I could read/write functionally).

 

And I’m telling you man, rainfall is *literally* an ecosystem’s pay day. A drought is like an ecological recession..the analogy is so similar it’s uncanny. Vulnerable species die out, less-vulnerable species take advantage, and evolutionary/adaptive mechanisms are utilized.

 

A wet period is the opposite..boom-time. The trees glow, the birds sing, there is life sprouting up everywhere, even in the shadows of large trees where it typically would not be able to do so. And it introduces its own issues..invading species and fungi that otherwise would not perform can take advantage of the situation. But all-in-all, it’s evolution in overdrive.

 

Wishing for drought and heat all the time..not a good thing and puts you at odds with nature’s heartbeat.

[TT-SEA]

You probably can. I’m sure it’s happened at some point during the Holocene interglacial.

 

In fact, Tim’s weather manipulation device is probably the only thing stopping it.

If it were up to me... we would all get 1 inch of rain in one night each week all summer.

[Farmboy]

A wet period is the opposite..boom-time. The trees glow, the birds sing, there is life sprouting up everywhere

Go to the PNW in January and tell me where this life sprouting up everywhere is..

[Phil]

Go to the PNW in January and tell me where this life sprouting up everywhere is..

During the growing season, dumba**. There’s truth to the old saying “April showers bring May flowers”. It can be extended throughout the growing season, too.

[Phil]

“Phil believes trees in the PNW leaf out in January because it rains a lot during that month”.

 

How could anyone, even Heatboy, read my post and extract such a bizarre, unrepresentative conclusion?

[TT-SEA]

Enjoying sunshine and nice weather does not mean I want drought. So dumb.

 

Wetter than normal with lots of sunny days is perfection to me.

[Jesse]

Enjoying sunshine and nice weather does not mean I want drought. So dumb.

 

Wetter than normal with lots of sunny days is perfection to me.

The fact that I enjoy lush, healthy native vegetation doesn’t mean I spend sunny days inside brooding over dying trees. But you seemed to like that incredibly stupid characterization. Can’t play aggressor and whiny victim in the same day. Well I guess you can.

[TT-SEA]

The fact that I enjoy healthy, lush native vegetation doesn’t mean I spend sunny days inside brooding over dying trees. But you seemed to like that incredibly stupid characterization. Can’t play aggressor and whiny victim in the same day. Well I guess you can.

I am not playing victim at all. WTF? And I did not make the "brooding" comment either.

 

Sucked into another endlessly stupid conversation by Phil about being made of water. So dumb.