Jump to content

May 2019 Weather Discussion PNW


Recommended Posts

Yeah I know that Jay Inslee already declared a drought “emergency” about 3 weeks ago or so. I’m pretty sure it’ll be fine however media has overhyped what’s going on. Definitely could use a bit more rain. Should still be enough water for the summer just less than normal, nothing we haven’t seen before.

Good news is the interior has been much wetter than recent years, and the low frequency wave/forcing structure favors an enhanced moisture draw into the region this summer, relatively to any of the last several years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SEA’s stats are worthless thanks to UHI.

 

OLM’s are more representative of reality.

 

 

Well... 2019 is comparable to 2018.   Its warmer than last May.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

SEA’s stats are worthless thanks to UHI.

 

OLM’s are more representative of reality.

it’s still been hotter this last decade in May through the whole area Seattles UHI doesn’t really change that. Here in Tacoma it’s also been warmer on average in May the last decade.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still thinking 2018 repeat?

It basically has been the same as last year besides a few minor differences and a different pattern set up then 2018.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still thinking 2018 repeat?

 

 

I have literally never said a 2018 repeat.  

 

You seem really intent on proving that years are different from each other.   Almost all of them are unique.   ;)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Actually... SEA might end up pretty close to last May in terms of temperature.   Hopefully the areas that have missed the rain this month get hit on Saturday.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

It basically has been the same as last year besides a few minor differences and a different pattern set up then 2018.

Translated: Except for the fact it’s different than last year, it’s the same as last year. :rolleyes:

 

Regional precipitation departures don’t look anything like last year or the year before (essentially inverted in the spatial distribution of the anomalies). And the pattern is essentially inverted across the high latitudes and over the subtropical Pacific.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Translated: Except for the fact it’s different than last year, it’s the same as last year. :rolleyes:

 

Regional precipitation departures don’t look anything like last year or the year before (essentially inverted in the spatial distribution of the anomalies). And the pattern could not be more different if it tried.

 

 

Yeah... the pattern really has been very different.   Completely flipped.   Its just a local quirk that the results have been the same.   Warm and dry.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah... the pattern really has been very different. Its just a local quirk that the results have been the same. Warm and dry.

Yep, that seems to be the case. Figures.

 

I do suspect that will change with time. Tough to predict the next few weeks with the ongoing monsoonal shenanigans, though. I’m not ready to stick my neck out there just yet.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

 

Was crazy to follow that last night.

  • Like 1

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

24

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Thoughts and prayers for those affected by the 18z.

I heard about a possible 18z relief concert in the works. WHAM will be a featured act.
  • Like 1

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

That low will be just flying down the coast on Saturday... from Vancouver Island around noon to just off the northern California coast by late evening. 

 

Here is precip from 11 a.m.-5 p.m. on Saturday...

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_nwus_8.png

 

 

 

And then from 5-11 p.m.

 

gfs_mslp_pcpn_nwus_9.png

 

 

 

That would mean the precip is pretty much done before 5 p.m. up here.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

06Z GFS for next Wednesday...

 

20190523-211630.jpg

 

And the new 00Z run...

 

20190523-211645.jpg

 

 

As Jesse mentioned... all the other models are playing catch up to the GFS now. :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

You posted the 06z twice.

 

:P

 

00z GFS does indeed show a Pacific ridge extending right in, however. The Southwest stays cool. Can they catch a break?

Fixed it... you can unquote the images. :)

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Phone App has rain for Saturday AND SUNDAY NOW.

 

Tomorrow will probably produce clouds and showers every day.

“tomorrow will probably produce clouds and showers everyday” lol what?

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Phone App has rain for Saturday AND SUNDAY NOW.

 

Tomorrow will probably produce clouds and showers every day.

My phone said rain and 77 today. It was sunny and 78. And I gave my tan a boost working in the yard this afternoon and my kids took the boat out on Sammamish.

 

Not all rainy days on your phone are washouts. ;)

 

The next two days are going to be genuinely cool and showery though.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Phone App has rain for Saturday AND SUNDAY NOW.

 

 

 

If it makes you feel any better... the 00Z ECMWF says your phone is wrong.   It shows it being quite nice on Sunday with just some convection over the mountains.

 

ecmwf-precip-06-nw-13.png

 

ecmwf-t2max-nw-13.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Phone weather app shows a rain icon on Saturday.

 

Ready for the big atmospheric river?

 

 

Here is the total rain with the Saturday system... only about .20 up here but the Willamette Valley could see much more.

 

ecmwf-precip-24-nw-11.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Our big storm for tomorrow is passing just south of Anchorage right now.    That thing is about to be sling shot down the west coast of North America... and into Phoenix.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rain pounding on the roof woke me up at some point around 3am or so...must have been brief as the rain gauge registered .02”.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00Z EPS starting to show another jet extension in the 10-15 day period... and farther north than the last one.

This is the 10-15 day mean... but it seems to be retrograding by the end of the run as 500mb heights and 850mb temps are above normal again by day 15.

Looks like a wetter pattern than the last one for the PNW.


eps-z500a-5d-noram-61.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Rain pounding on the roof woke me up at some point around 3am or so...must have been brief as the rain gauge registered .02”.

 

 

No rain here yet... but looks windy out there and very dark.    

 

Might as well be raining if its going to be dark and cold all day.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The thunderstorm up in the north sound is all over Twitter this morning I’m jealous. Doesn’t look like it rained here last night.

  • Like 1

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

00Z EPS starting to show another jet extension in the 10-15 day period... and farther north than the last one.

 

This is the 10-15 day mean... but it seems to be retrograding by the end of the run as 500mb heights and 850mb temps are above normal again by day 15.

 

Looks like a wetter pattern than the last one for the PNW.

 

 

eps-z500a-5d-noram-61.png

Looks like the further east and south one is the better chance of escaping this?

"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Definitely a change in the air from yesterday. Breezy this morning and cloudy. Looks like we’re in the dry spot as showers are forming up in the north sound again up by anacortes and the South Washington coast.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Join the conversation

You can post now and register later. If you have an account, sign in now to post with your account.

Guest
Unfortunately, your content contains terms that we do not allow. Please edit your content to remove the highlighted words below.
Reply to this topic...

×   Pasted as rich text.   Paste as plain text instead

  Only 75 emoji are allowed.

×   Your link has been automatically embedded.   Display as a link instead

×   Your previous content has been restored.   Clear editor

×   You cannot paste images directly. Upload or insert images from URL.

Loading...

×
×
  • Create New...