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Summer Forecast Contest 2019

climate summer temperature forecast contest
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#1
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 26 May 2019 - 08:02 PM

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Time for the summer forecast contest, as we hope to see summer arrive some time this year in what's been the coolest and wettest May in decades for California and pretty much all of the Southwest

Predict the monthly anomalies for June, July, and August, at these locations:

You've got until Monday, June 3 to make your guesses

SEA (Seattle, WA)
OLM (Olympia, WA)
PDX (Portland, OR)
CQT (Downtown LA)
DEN (Denver, CO)
DCA (Washington D.C.)
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#2
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 26 May 2019 - 08:11 PM

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If you use the following format it will be easier to calculate the winner. Each location has 3 numbers separated by commas. Also a comma between location name and the first prediction (June)

 

Location, JUN, JUL, AUG

SEA, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0

OLM, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0

PDX, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0

CQT, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0

DEN, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0

DCA, 0.0, 0.0, 0.0



#3
Phil

Posted 26 May 2019 - 11:41 PM

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Alright, I’m in.
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#4
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 27 May 2019 - 07:56 AM

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Here are my predictions (Last edited June 2)

 

Location, JUN, JUL, AUG

SEA, +2.0, +1.5, +1.3

OLM, +1.6, +1.1, +1.0

PDX, +1.5, +1.6, +1.8

CQT, -1.0, +0.3 ,+0.5

DEN, -1.5, +0.8, +1.1

DCA, +3.2, +2.6, +2.2


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#5
Phil

Posted 27 May 2019 - 11:14 AM

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IIRC, I screwed up CQT so magnificently last year that it cancelled out my win at DCA. So I just downloaded the historical monthly data from there, and am going to compare it to the 500mb reanalysis before I make a prediction this time. Haha.
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#6
Eujunga

Posted 27 May 2019 - 11:54 AM

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IIRC, I screwed up CQT so magnificently last year that it cancelled out my win at DCA. So I just downloaded the historical monthly data from there, and am going to compare it to the 500mb reanalysis before I make a prediction this time. Haha.

 

No one saw the crazy hot summer at CQT coming last year.  Not sure how anyone could have.


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#7
Phil

Posted 29 May 2019 - 03:56 PM

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Will have a guess by tonight or tomorrow.
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#8
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 31 May 2019 - 11:52 AM

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Time for the summer forecast contest, as we hope to see summer arrive some time this year in what's been the coolest and wettest May in decades for California and pretty much all of the Southwest

Predict the monthly anomalies for June, July, and August, at these locations:

You've got until Monday, June 3 to make your guesses

SEA (Seattle, WA)
OLM (Olympia, WA)
PDX (Portland, OR)
CQT (Downtown LA)
DEN (Denver, CO)
DCA (Washington D.C.)


Thanks Mr Marine Layer for making the summer forecast contest thread. I'll be playing again this year. I pretty much know what I'm going to put down for the PNW locations but will need to research a bit for the other ones especially DCA. I did horrible last summer for that particular location.

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#9
Phil

Posted 31 May 2019 - 06:05 PM

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Thanks Mr Marine Layer for making the summer forecast contest thread. I'll be playing again this year. I pretty much know what I'm going to put down for the PNW locations but will need to research a bit for the other ones especially DCA. I did horrible last summer for that particular location.


Add an extra degree onto your guess for DCA and you should be fine, lol.
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#10
TT-SEA

Posted 31 May 2019 - 06:08 PM

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Add an extra degree onto your guess for DCA and you should be fine, lol.


How is his SEA forecast?

#11
Phil

Posted 31 May 2019 - 06:10 PM

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SEA: +1, +1.5, +2

OLM: 0.0, +0.5, +1

PDX: +0.5, +1, +1.5

CQT: -1, 0.5, 0.5

DEN: -1, -1, 0

DCA: +2, +1, +3
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#12
Phil

Posted 31 May 2019 - 06:12 PM

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How is his SEA forecast?


You tell me?
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#13
TT-SEA

Posted 31 May 2019 - 06:19 PM

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You tell me?

 

 

No idea actually... but it does not feel like a cool summer is ahead.



#14
Phil

Posted 31 May 2019 - 06:24 PM

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No idea actually... but it does not feel like a cool summer is ahead.


Yeah, a cool summer ain’t in the cards this year (sadly). Though at least it won’t be a scorcher like the last several summers..more zonal flow.

And if the niño is delayed by a year, then next summer probably won’t be cool either, given we’ll have descending easterly shear by then (warm season-aleutian low conduit).
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#15
Eujunga

Posted 31 May 2019 - 07:04 PM

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SEA:  +1.1, +1.6, +1.5

 

OLM:  +0.5, +1.0, +1.1

 

PDX:  +1.6, +2.1, +2.1

 

CQT:  +1.0, +1.5, +1.5

 

DEN:  +1.0, +1.0, +1.0

 

DCA:  +2.1, +2.1, +2.1


Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#16
Jesse

Posted 31 May 2019 - 08:55 PM

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Yeah, a cool summer ain’t in the cards this year (sadly). Though at least it won’t be a scorcher like the last several summers..more zonal flow.

And if the niño is delayed by a year, then next summer probably won’t be cool either, given we’ll have descending easterly shear by then (warm season-aleutian low conduit).


What will at that point be almost a decade with no cool summers seems reasonable.

#17
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 31 May 2019 - 08:59 PM

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Remember, you can change your predictions up to the end of June 3 (Pacific Time)



#18
weatherfan2012

Posted 31 May 2019 - 09:52 PM

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Yeah, a cool summer ain’t in the cards this year (sadly). Though at least it won’t be a scorcher like the last several summers..more zonal flow.
And if the niño is delayed by a year, then next summer probably won’t be cool either, given we’ll have descending easterly shear by then (warm season-aleutian low conduit).

that would be interesting if the El nino ends up being delayed would also say that this is a long dip into an solar min.

#19
Phil

Posted 01 June 2019 - 11:51 AM

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What will at that point be almost a decade with no cool summers seems reasonable.


Weak solar forcing has its benefits and its drawbacks as it relates to the decadal cycle of the equatorial axis of the Indo-West-Pacific Warm Pool, which is the primary regulator of your summer climate.

One of those drawbacks is that it slows the cycle and dampens the amplitude, which, although it drains the warm pool and slows Indonesian throughflow, it also prolongs the phase of eastward extension (which is the phase it’s in now).

That extended phase is waning, but we’ll need one more El Niño to complete the westward retraction. I was originally thinking that El Niño would occur in 2019/20, but (pending the culminating amplitude of the ongoing upwelling OKW upon completion) it might be delayed a year, to 2020/21, with the multi-year initiating during the summer of 2021.
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#20
Deweydog

Posted 01 June 2019 - 02:54 PM

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Warm ups and cool downs upcoming down the road.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#21
Jesse

Posted 01 June 2019 - 05:33 PM

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Weak solar forcing has its benefits and its drawbacks as it relates to the decadal cycle of the equatorial axis of the Indo-West-Pacific Warm Pool, which is the primary regulator of your summer climate.

One of those drawbacks is that it slows the cycle and dampens the amplitude, which, although it drains the warm pool and slows Indonesian throughflow, it also prolongs the phase of eastward extension (which is the phase it’s in now).

That extended phase is waning, but we’ll need one more El Niño to complete the westward retraction. I was originally thinking that El Niño would occur in 2019/20, but (pending the culminating amplitude of the ongoing upwelling OKW upon completion) it might be delayed a year, to 2020/21, with the multi-year initiating during the summer of 2021.


Can’t find many decade long stretches of warm summers during past solar mins.

#22
Phil

Posted 02 June 2019 - 12:57 AM

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Can’t find many decade long stretches of warm summers during past solar mins.


We haven’t seen the sun this weak since the tail end of the LIA. Not sure there’s a viable comparison to be made there.

You’d probably have to go back to the inception of the sporer minimum, which bookended the MWP.
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#23
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 June 2019 - 09:14 AM

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SEA: +3, +2, +2.5

OLM: +1.5, +1.0, +1.5

PDX: +2.5, +1.5, +2.5

CQT: 0, +1, +2

DEN: -1, -0.5, +0.5

DCA: +2, +1.5. +2

#24
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 June 2019 - 10:15 AM

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Here are my predictions (Last edited May 31)

Location, JUN, JUL, AUG
SEA, +2.0, +1.5, +1.3
OLM, +1.8, +1.3, +1.5
PDX, +1.5, +1.6, +1.8
CQT, -1.3, +0.3 ,+0.5
DEN, -1.0, +0.8, +1.1
DCA, +3.2, +2.6, +2.2

A hint for you. There is almost no chance OLM ever has a warmer anomaly than SEA.

#25
Jesse

Posted 02 June 2019 - 10:26 AM

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SEA: +3, +2, +2.5

OLM: +1.5, +1.0, +1.5

PDX: +2.5, +1.5, +2.5

CQT: +1, +1, +2

DEN: -1, -0.5, +0.5

DCA: +2, +1.5. +2


Anouther favourable summer.

#26
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 June 2019 - 10:53 AM

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Anouther favourable summer.

Hopefully a little wetter than some of the recent ones.

#27
GHweatherChris

Posted 02 June 2019 - 03:18 PM

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Location, JUN, JUL, AUG

SEA, +2.4, +2.1, +3.1

OLM, +2.8, +2.3, +2.9

PDX, +2.1, +2.5, +2.7

CQT, +1.3, +1.5 ,+1.8

DEN, +.6, +1.8, +1.5

DCA, +2.2, +2.6, +2.5

#28
Front Ranger

Posted 03 June 2019 - 05:56 PM

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SEA:  +2.3, +.6, +1.2

 

OLM:  +1.1, -.8, +.3

 

PDX:  +1.9, +.4, +1.4

 

CQT:  +.7, +.5, +1.9

 

DEN:  -2.0, -.5, +2.3

 

DCA:  +2.8, +3.4, +2.2


It's the internet. Don't take it personal.


#29
Deweydog

Posted 03 June 2019 - 06:10 PM

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PDX:

1,2,3.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#30
TT-SEA

Posted 03 June 2019 - 07:28 PM

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Location, JUN, JUL, AUG

SEA, +2.4, +2.1, +3.1

OLM, +2.8, +2.3, +2.9

PDX, +2.1, +2.5, +2.7

CQT, +1.3, +1.5 ,+1.8

DEN, +.6, +1.8, +1.5

DCA, +2.2, +2.6, +2.5

 

 

Not sure if it will end up a warm or cool summer... but I am pretty sure that OLM will not run warmer than SEA either way.



#31
TT-SEA

Posted 03 June 2019 - 07:33 PM

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SEA:  +2.5, +1.1, +0.7

 

OLM:  +1.4, 0.0, -0.2

 

PDX:  +1.8, +1.4, +0.6

 

CQT:  +0.2, +0.4, -0.2

 

DEN:  -2.7, -1.1, 0.0

 

DCA:  +3.2, +2.8, +2.0



#32
Jesse

Posted 03 June 2019 - 07:54 PM

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Total shot in the dark but why not.

SEA: +2.0, +2.5, +2.5

PDX: +1.5, +2.0, +2.1

OLM: +0.8, +1.5, +1.6

CQT: 0.0, +1.5, +2.5

DEN: -1.0, 0.0, +1.0

DCA: +3.0, +2.0, +3.0

#33
ShawniganLake

Posted 03 June 2019 - 09:22 PM

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Phil is pretty much the only one going with a close to seasonal June. (PNW) Setting himself up to look really smart or really not
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#34
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 03 June 2019 - 09:29 PM

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Location, JUN, JUL, AUG

SEA, +1.6, +2.2, -0.8

OLM, +1.0, +1.8, -1.0

PDX, +1.4, +2.2, -0.6

CQT, +0.2, +1.0, +0

DEN, -0.8, +0.3, +0.8

DCA, +2.6, +1.2, +3.2

My average for both SEA and PDX for the 3 months is +1.0 and OLM is +0.6. Basically an average of between (-1 to +1) which I consider a normal summer and cooler in the past several years. I'm pretty much the only one going with negative departures for the PNW locations in August so I'll need to hit that to have any chance of winning.

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#35
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 03 June 2019 - 09:30 PM

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Add an extra degree onto your guess for DCA and you should be fine, lol.


Yeah, DCA is the hottest location in my forecast.
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Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#36
GHweatherChris

Posted 04 June 2019 - 06:30 AM

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Not sure if it will end up a warm or cool summer... but I am pretty sure that OLM will not run warmer than SEA either way.


Unnecessary comment.

#37
TT-SEA

Posted 04 June 2019 - 08:11 AM

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Unnecessary comment.

 

 

Not at all.   Golden rule is that OLM will always run cooler than SEA in terms of anomalies.   Jared will confirm.   ;)  



#38
Front Ranger

Posted 04 June 2019 - 08:46 AM

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Not at all. Golden rule is that OLM will always run cooler than SEA in terms of anomalies. Jared will confirm. ;)


It's ok...those who ignore this reality are less likely to win. 😁

It's the internet. Don't take it personal.


#39
GHweatherChris

Posted 04 June 2019 - 09:03 AM

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Not at all. Golden rule is that OLM will always run cooler than SEA in terms of anomalies. Jared will confirm. ;)


I won last year.
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#40
TT-SEA

Posted 04 June 2019 - 09:19 AM

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I won last year.

 

 

I just checked... it appears that Frontal Snowsquall won last year.   You were not even in the contest.

 

Snowsquall went really warm and it worked out great.    I over-corrected for my warm bias.    :)

 

summer.png



#41
GHweatherChris

Posted 04 June 2019 - 09:24 AM

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I just checked... it appears that Frontal Snowsquall won last year. You were not even in the contest.

Snowsquall went really warm and it worked out great. I over-corrected for my warm bias. :)

summer.png


Hmm, well I won one of these silly contests last year!

#42
Front Ranger

Posted 11 June 2019 - 06:46 AM

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Though the first 10 days of June.

 

SEA, +2.1

OLM, +.7

PDX, +1.8

CQT, +1.1

DEN, -0.9

DCA, +.9

 

SEA, OLM, and PDX will all go up quite a bit this week, CQT should stay near where they're at, DEN should stay similar, and DCA should drop a bit.


It's the internet. Don't take it personal.


#43
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 23 June 2019 - 07:04 PM

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Downtown L.A. is still 0.6 above normal even with all of the June Gloom we've had, mainly to above normal lows.



#44
Phil

Posted 24 June 2019 - 01:14 PM

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Phil is pretty much the only one going with a close to seasonal June. (PNW) Setting himself up to look really smart or really not


I’m probably okayish at OLM, but UHI likely screwed me over at SEA (and possibly PDX too).

I keep underestimating how phony SEA’s numbers are.
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#45
TT-SEA

Posted 24 June 2019 - 01:19 PM

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I’m probably okay at OLM, but UHI likely screwed me over at SEA (and possibly PDX too).

I keep underestimating how phony SEA’s numbers are.

 

Maybe around 1.5 degrees.    

 

Pretty simple to factor in... its not like its 20 degrees off. 

 

Most people cannot even discern a 1.5 degree difference.   Not that big of a deal.    ;)  



#46
Jesse

Posted 24 June 2019 - 01:45 PM

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Maybe around 1.5 degrees.

Pretty simple to factor in... its not like its 20 degrees off.

Most people cannot even discern a 1.5 degree difference. Not that big of a deal. ;)


1.5 degrees is significant over an entire month or year, and probably would be noticeable. Just like a 1.5 degree rise in global temperatures is significant on that scale even though the number itself is small at face value. But you already know all of this.

#47
TT-SEA

Posted 24 June 2019 - 01:59 PM

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1.5 degrees is significant over an entire month or year, and probably would be noticeable. Just like a 1.5 degree rise in global temperatures is significant on that scale even though the number itself is small at face value. But you already know all of this.

 

I realize its statistically important.   But if SEA is reporting 79 degrees and it would have been 77.5 degrees without UHI... that is not that noticeable.     

 

Either way... its a known quantity.    Phil acts like its off by 10+ degrees.    :rolleyes:



#48
TT-SEA

Posted 24 June 2019 - 03:45 PM

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SEA: +1, +1.5, +2

OLM: 0.0, +0.5, +1

PDX: +0.5, +1, +1.5

CQT: -1, 0.5, 0.5

DEN: -1, -1, 0

DCA: +2, +1, +3

 

 

And your excuse for SEA does not hold up... you factored in UHI.      You were too cool for both OLM and SEA... but the next week will probably bring it closer.



#49
Phil

Posted 24 June 2019 - 04:39 PM

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And your excuse for SEA does not hold up... you factored in UHI. You were too cool for both OLM and SEA... but the next week will probably bring it closer.


This post makes zero sense. I factored for UHI and still underestimated it (from the looks of it).

And what makes you think I’m too cold at OLM? They were at +2.6 just five days ago, now they’re at +1.6. Should finish at +0.5 give or take a few tenths, which would be very close to average.
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#50
Front Ranger

Posted 24 June 2019 - 04:55 PM

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DCA running a whopping +.2!


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