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June 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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We hit 94* today and i had to be out in it in the afternoon. To be totally honest, it whipped my a**! I got light headed as the humidity closed in on me. How do people work in it?

 

A line of storms were bearing down on us this morning, and it suddenly took a SE turn. However we have more in the forecast tomorrow.

After the heat today, I'm ready for Fall!

 

Thurs-Sat. 95-97*. Hey, it's summer down here.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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We have cracked 90 once this season, when it hit 91°F on June 5. By this time last Summer, we had gone over 90°F 18 times already. No 90s for the foreseeable future. We may cut it close next week but that's far from a certainty.

 

I remember the 90's...great decade! 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Nice days have been hard to come by here in the Chi, but once the thick fog began to clear up yesterday around 10:00am, blue skies took over and it ended being a top notch day in the upper 70's with comfy DP's and light winds.  Driving back from the gym yesterday morning, the skies almost looked exactly what it looks like in San Diego when the fog clears up during the mid morning hours.  I swear, if it only smelled like the ocean, it would feel like I was in Cali.  It was one of those visual moments I'll remember.

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The 00z Euro is showing some nasty rounds of severe storms across the MW late Friday through the weekend.  After flipping through the models, interestingly, the 00z ICON lines up very similar to what the 00z Euro is showing and the MW will be the epicenter of heavy precip.

 

 

 

icon_apcpn_ncus_48.png

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It would certainly be nice to see some real MCS action around here.  There hasn't been much of that so far this season.  The last couple euro runs have 4+" of rain here over the next week.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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It would certainly be nice to see some real MCS action around here.  There hasn't been much of that so far this season.  The last couple euro runs have 4+" of rain here over the next week.

Yup, this forthcoming setup is prime for long-lived MCS's to traverse the region.  I'm looking forward to witness my first real thunderstorm threat this season.  I missed out on all the action while I was out west so hopefully this weekend will deliver.  I don't necessarily need the real severe stuff just some strong, electric storms would be nice.

 

As anticipated, SPC has the MW in the Slight Risk for now, prob will end up Enhanced Risk as we get closer. 

 

 

 

day3otlk_0730.gif

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Des Moines NWS also talking about severe potential for Thursday as well. Here's an interesting tidbit from their morning discussion:

The number 1 CIPS analog for Thursday from the 00z NAM was from Jun 30, 1993 when several tornadoes occurred under a similar setup. Will begin highlighting at least the potential for a few severe storms for Thursday afternoon and evening.

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I woke in the middle of the night to lightning and thunder. Most of the action was SW of DFW but the radar was lit up bright red.

We only got a trace of rain but could see a repeat this afternoon.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Heat Index will reach 105*-108* today.......that’s not a typo.

 

This will continue through Friday.

 

Severe storms expected this evening. Hail, tornados possible. Damaging winds.

 

97* tomorrow Friday 95* 1st day of Summer

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I got 0.15" of rain so far today. We may or may not get more later. I am hoping to see some good storms later this week and into this weekend. 

 

Ever since Sunday, there has been deck of low clouds hanging over us, even when it is not raining. Have not seen much in the way of sun since Sunday. 

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GRR forecasters are turrible.  Rain should stay south.  Now Rain all day tomorrow!

:lol:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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A rainy day tomorrow w more than a half inch of wata. The good thing is that Friday looks gorgeous. :D

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Heat Index will reach 105*-108* today.......that’s not a typo.

 

This will continue through Friday.

 

Severe storms expected this evening. Hail, tornados possible. Damaging winds.

 

97* tomorrow Friday 95* 1st day of Summer

Yikes..that's a scorcher!

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Starting on Friday Folks, the days will start getting shorter. B4 ya know it, it will be Autumn!

 

Btw: the weekend looks pretty nice, other than scattered pm t'stms

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It's freakin unbelievably hot and humid. I had to be out in it for about an hour and honestly, got dizzy. Had to get inside and cool down. Just not used to the heat after to cold damp winter and spring..........COME ON AUTUMN BABY !! ...I love the thought.

 

Rough storms NE of Dallas. Damage reported. Not sure if it was a funnel cloud or what.

It is also delaying my husband's flight into DFW by 2 1/2 hrs. I'm so not a fan of flying in this weather.

The atmosphere is just crazy down here.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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@ Jaster, not a bad looking Lower Lakes "Summer Cutter", ay???

 

Awesome...and rare indeed. NWS pm update calling for 1-2" strata-form RN. This be the I-94 snowstorm track. Would like to think it's at least a "possibility" for next season's LRC, but this could just be a flash-back of last Nov's system via the old/current pattern?? Nice to see regardless, tho my place & gardens could use more sun and less liquid right now.

Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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A rainy day tomorrow w more than a half inch of wata. The good thing is that Friday looks gorgeous. :D

 

Gosh let's hope so. Also hoping not to be flooded so I can enjoy it  ;)

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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We hit 94* today and i had to be out in it in the afternoon. To be totally honest, it whipped my a**! I got light headed as the humidity closed in on me. How do people work in it?

 

A line of storms were bearing down on us this morning, and it suddenly took a SE turn. However we have more in the forecast tomorrow.

After the heat today, I'm ready for Fall!

 

Thurs-Sat. 95-97*. Hey, it's summer down here.

This soup air is unbearable. The next 2 days are going to be so brutal.

 

I manage it by working earlier in the mornings. It's the only way around it. I work in a machine shop with zero A.C..

 

I'm glad I'm not in Texas. Stay cool.

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I only picked up a total of 0.11" from today's system.  I'm not a big fan of nuisance rain.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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This soup air is unbearable. The next 2 days are going to be so brutal.

 

I manage it by working earlier in the mornings. It's the only way around it. I work in a machine shop with zero A.C..

 

I'm glad I'm not in Texas. Stay cool.

Wow. We have had our windows open the last 2 days. House dropped to 62 degrees this morning and Tuesday it never got above 66 all day in the house. This is the lowest energy bill I have ever had for June. Still have not had to turn on underground sprinklers and after another inch yesterday, back to some standing water on the ends of fields. We might finally get our real first taste of extended warmth and humidity by next week.

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Just another October...I mean, June day here in Chicago...one of the more lousy, raw, damp and dreary mornings I've had to experience in late June.  This system took the perfect track to hit the lower lakes and to see such a healthy system, comma-shape on radar in the Summer is quite the show from nature.

 

 

Current conditions at

Chicago, Chicago-O'Hare International Airport (KORD) Lat: 41.98°NLon: 87.9°WElev: 666ft.

nra.png

 

Heavy Rain Fog/Mist

58°F

14°C

Humidity 100% Wind Speed N 10 mph Barometer 29.59 in (1001.9 mb) Dewpoint 58°F (14°C) Visibility 3.00 mi Last update 20 Jun 4:51 am CDT

 

Here was the radar loop from yesterday...

 

animate-yesterday.png

 

 

The last few hours...

 

animate.png

 

 

0804z.jpg

 

 

Widespread 1-3" rains...

 

D9f26LNXUAE33j_.jpg

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I gotta give credit to the ICON model, it nailed the northerly track of this system compared to the rest of the models.  With that being said, the ICON has been showing for several runs in a row, a long-lived MCS tracking out of NE Friday morning along the northern periphery of the "heat dome".  The NAM is picking up on it as well.  This is the type of set up I had envisioned as we flip the calendar into Summer at 10:54am CST tomorrow morning.  Wouldn't ya know it, E NE/IA look to be in the target region for this MCS and the Euro also agrees.

 

 

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_13.png

 

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_33.png

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I'm agreeing with a lot of what the JMA weeklies are suggesting as we close out June and head into the month of July where the West will "Fry".  A lot is going on in the model world and the pattern is going to amplify big time next month and will likely continue through the rest of Summer.  A nice push of Summer warmth which has been well advertised will begin this weekend and extend through at least the 1st week of July.  Once we get into July, I strongly believe the summer anti-cyclone will position itself near the 4 corners region and meander in this part of the country for the rest of Summer.  Tie that in with a strong signal for a western North American ridge and blocking you will see a translation towards a troughy/WN Flow pattern across the eastern CONUS.  This is where the LRC pattern becomes a bit sketchy to use in the longer range and it takes a bit of your own experience to figure out the pattern.  Nonetheless, a wet/cool signal is showing up for next month.  Big Monsoon season starts in July???

 

 

So, here we are with the Week 2 temp/precip pattern...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201906.D1912_gl2.png

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201906.D1912_gl0.png

 

 

Week 3-4...during this period, once past the 4th of July holiday, I envision some deep troughs to penetrate our Sub...

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201906.D1912_gl2.png

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201906.D1912_gl0.png

 

 

Holy smokes, the NE PAC is on Fuego....nice cool pool developing NW of Hawaii, Modoki Nino...boy, there are many other things I am monitoring for next Winter that are very enticing.  I'll be honest, compared to last years enthusiasm I had for that winter last Summer, this year is no comparison.  History will be re-written yet again...

 

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201906.D1912_gls.png

 

cdas-sflux_ssta_global_1.png

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I gotta give credit to the ICON model, it nailed the northerly track of this system compared to the rest of the models. With that being said, the ICON has been showing for several runs in a row, a long-lived MCS tracking out of NE Friday morning along the northern periphery of the "heat dome". The NAM is picking up on it as well. This is the type of set up I had envisioned as we flip the calendar into Summer at 10:54am CST tomorrow morning. Wouldn't ya know it, E NE/IA look to be in the target region for this MCS and the Euro also agrees.

 

 

 

icon_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_13.png

 

namconus_ref_frzn_ncus_33.png

Great! My wife is Lincoln Friday evening. Hope she can get down there with out the car getting pelted. :(
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Today looks like it will have a  chance of being the 5th day this June that Grand Rapids did not reach 70° So far this month there have only been 4 days where the high reached 80 or better with the warmest so far just 82. This month so far the average high has been 73.9 and the average low has been 54.2°  The mean so far is at 64.0 and that is a departure of -2.9° So far there have been 2 clear days (less then 30% cloud cover) 14 partly cloudy days (between 40 and 70% cloud cover) and 3 cloudy days (between 80 and 100% cloud cover) Hey the good news the rain looks to have stopped and there seems to be some breaks in the clouds here with a temperature of 63

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Just about as perfect a track as I could ask for here in Marshall

 

20190620 Map grab.PNG

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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SW MI and Jaster's place in the bullseye....

 

Tab3FileL.png?6e3a0468b40fd550e88bf207c6

 

Not "quite" the 2+ inch bullseye but tbh, I didn't need any flooding issues so I'm fine with the 1.42" recorded by the KRMY ASOS unit. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Where is Summer???  This is a sad stat and an eye opening one...

 

 

 

Thru 6/20, the highest temp so far this year has been 83°, only 3 yrs (most recently 135 yrs ago) since records began in 1871 have gone this deep into the year and not been any warmer (1878, 1882, 1884) @WGNNews @MikeJanssenWX @DIvory_WGN @MorganKolkmeyer
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Where is Summer???  This is a sad stat and an eye opening one...

 

Come down to Texas Tom !  108* heat index today. 

 

I'll make enchiladas and margaritas !!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Using Tom's radar loop -

 

Here was the radar loop from yesterday...

 

animate-yesterday.png

 

 

Commenting on the radar in Texas yesterday,Air traffic very delayed.  I was driving from DFW airport to SW Fort Worth last night after dark and there was some remarkable lighting in the sky.  All cloud to cloud. It would light up the canopy overhead and appeared like a crystal bowl that had crackled.  Just gob smacking gorgeous.  

 

We had severe weather all around us and a tornado may have been spotted NE of Dallas.  I haven't heard it confirned yet. 

But the major population areas have been lucky to not get trashed by hail or wind.  It isn't over however. 

 

Our heating and humidity can deliver some very ugly weather.

97* today and 95* tomorrow.  Currently under a heat advisory. Our severe weather isn't over.

Sunday, Monday, Tuesday, we go back into thunderstorms.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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