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June 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW


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Will the Grand Floral Parade be a washout? Will Tim and Phil settle the score? Tune in to find out!

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Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Beautiful morning in the s valley. Still trying to cool the house off from the sun just blasting into it in the evening.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Ended May with 2 t'storm days (same with April). Marginally warmer than avg with a +1.0 degree mean. 2018 was either slightly warmer than that or the same, I'll do the numbers soon for last several May's I've experienced.

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Ashland, KY Weather

'23-'24 Winter

Snowfall - 5.50"
First freeze: 11/1 (32)
Minimum: 2 on 1/17

Measurable snows: 4
Max 1 day snow: 3" (1/19)

Thunders: 11
1/27, 1/28, 2/10, 2/22, 2/27, 2/28, 3/5, 3/6, 3/14, 3/15
3/26, 

-------------------------------------------------------
[Klamath Falls, OR 2010 to 2021]
https://imgur.com/SuGTijl

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52 and cloudy here this morning. Looks like the marine push and onshore flow is supposed to be stronger Monday but the weekend looks nice!

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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10-day precip total per the 12Z GFS is pretty pathetic.

 

gfs_apcpn_nwus_40.png

Those Alberta fires might take a beatdown, though.

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12z GFS ensembles seem to be hinting at the possibility of another wet pattern in the long range following the ridge following next week’s trough. As long as we keep things somewhat variable and don’t have a ridge lock over us for weeks on end it should be a nice summer.

 

6B0CCDD8-E12A-40E4-860C-C46F8BC12712.png

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Those Alberta fires might take a beatdown, though.

 

You would think.

 

But if -60 degrees and deep snow does not put those fires out... I doubt any amount of rain can either.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12z GFS ensembles seem to be hinting at the possibility of another wet pattern in the long range following the ridge following next week’s trough. As long as we keep things somewhat variable and don’t have a ridge lock over us for weeks on end it should be a nice summer.

 

 

12Z GFS ensemble mean total precip anomaly through the first half of June...

 

gefs-tprecip-a-noram-65.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You would think.

 

But if -60 degrees and deep snow does not put those fires out... I doubt any amount of rain can either.

Well, if it’s really cold, the soil will be frozen and will have trouble absorbing any water. Rain might be more effective at increasing the fuel moisture itself.

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Yeah but I was talking about the ensembles.

 

I’d be very interested if anyone knows of another forum to track western weather.

 

 

That is the ensemble mean.    Just pointing out that it does not look wet at all.    I want some rain too. 

 

And per your graph... there are only 3 members that even show rain in the long range.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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That is the ensemble mean.    Just pointing out that it does not look wet at all.    I want some rain too. 

 

And even per your graph... there are only 3 members that even show rain in the long range.

Fox 12 blog keeps looking better and better these days.

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I said hinting at the possibility. That is all. Can’t make a simple comment here without the forum bully/watch dog trying to start a war over it. Being away from this place for awhile makes me kinda realize what a drain it can be.

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Fox 12 blog keeps looking better and better these days.

Yeah... I personally created that precip anomaly map from the 12Z GFS ensemble mean just to get you.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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12z GFS ensembles seem to be hinting at the possibility of another wet pattern in the long range following the ridge following next week’s trough. As long as we keep things somewhat variable and don’t have a ridge lock over us for weeks on end it should be a nice summer.

attachicon.gif6B0CCDD8-E12A-40E4-860C-C46F8BC12712.png

Past 240 hours. I’ll believe it when I see it.

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I said hinting at the possibility. That is all. Can’t make a simple comment here without the forum bully/watch dog trying to start a war over it. Being away from this place for awhile makes me kinda realize what a drain it can be.

You are making it a war. Not me.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah... I personally created that precip anomaly map from the 12Z GFS ensemble mean just to get you.

No, but you posted it to. You have single handedly destroyed any fun in posting here for those who do not adhere to your preferences. And you are ALWAYS online and ready to pounce. It’s just a drag anymore.

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I didn’t realize western Canada could be so wet during the warm season.

 

Just as wet there as it is here according to the GEFS. That’s shocking considering how much less precipitable water is in the atmosphere up there.

 

mJApsFM.png

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I didn’t realize western Canada could be so wet during the warm season.

 

Just as wet there as it is here according to the GEFS. That’s shocking considering how much less precipitable water is in the atmosphere up there.

 

 

There is a fairly large body of water to their west. I think this is typically the wet season up that way as the jet stream retreats northward.

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No, but you posted it to. You have single handedly destroyed any fun in posting here for those who do not adhere to your preferences. And you are ALWAYS online and ready to pounce. It’s just a drag anymore.

 

 

You were talking about the 12Z GFS ensembles.

 

If that map showed wetter than normal and I said the anomaly map agrees then you would have liked the post and said nothing.    So your responses to my posts seem to be entirely related to whether they support your preferences.     And not just looking at actual model data.    

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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There is a fairly large body of water to their west. I think this is typically the wet season up that way as the jet stream retreats northward.

But look at how much less the precipitable water values are vs the “wet” areas of the southeast. Must be the lower heights/less capping or topographic enhancement?

 

A9XQfv0.gif

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But look at how much less the precipitable water values are vs the “wet” areas of the southeast. Must be the lower heights/less capping or topographic enhancement?

 

 

I assume its related to topography and troughing and not precipitable water.   You can get copious rain in your area with much higher heights.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I didn’t realize western Canada could be so wet during the warm season.

 

Just as wet there as it is here according to the GEFS. That’s shocking considering how much less precipitable water is in the atmosphere up there.

 

mJApsFM.png

It’s the start of the rainy season in the lower elevations of a good portion of the BC interior. Not sure about Alberta, I don’t know there climate as well.
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You know exactly what you’re doing, and I gave you the response you wanted so you could play the “just reporting facts! ” card. It’s always the same old song and dance. You have already succeeded in chasing Jim off with a similar schtick. My guess is your instinct is to just keep hen pecking until all the cold freaks here are gone.

 

Wow.   Paranoid.   

 

I can't help you there.   I don't control the weather or the models.   And I have no problem posting model data for weather that is not in line with my preferences.   The actual weather will determine my enjoyment.   

 

If you were always telling me it was going to be cold and wet all the time just to get to me... it would lose its punch really fast unless the actual weather follows suit.   I am not here to pimp warm and dry and then be wrong all the time when it constantly ends up cold and wet.    I just want to know what will be happening.   

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Wow. Paranoid.

 

I can't help you there. I don't control the weather or the models. And I have no problem posting model data for weather that is not in line with my preferences. The actual weather will determine my enjoyment.

 

If you were always telling me it was going to be cold and wet all the time just to get to me... it would lose its punch really fast unless the actual weather follows suit. I am not here to pimp warm and dry and then be wrong all the time when it constantly ends up cold and wet. I just want to know what will be happening.

You sure have done a good job convincing yourself of your own objectivity. :lol:

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You sure have done a good job convincing yourself of your own objectivity. :lol:

I don't really care. If I am not objective then I will always be wrong about it being warm and dry. And nature will always correct me with a cold and wet reality. And I will correct accordingly.

 

I have no problem pointing out cold and wet patterns. I do it all the time when it happens or is clear it will be happening.

 

You just want no dissenting opinions or data. Again... I just want to know what will actually happen.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You just want no dissenting opinions or data.

No, that would actually be you. All I said was that there were small hints of another wet pattern, and you couldn’t leave it alone. Obviously the 12z operational and ensembles were titillatingly dry.

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No, that would actually be you. All I said was that there were hints of another wet pattern. Obviously the 12z operational and ensembles were titillatingly dry.

I went there actually hoping it would be wet so I could agree with you in a post. I thought it might be. But that does not mean I should ignore that its actually really dry. That is just more information.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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I went there actually hoping it would be wet so I could agree with you in a post. I thought it might be. But that does not mean I should ignore that its actually really dry. That is just more information.

Information becomes a lot less informative when only one side of it is consistently presented. The fact that I can instantly tell how a suite of model runs trended simply based on if there were any new posts from you between 9-10 and/or 11-12 kinda says it all.

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Information becomes a lot less informative when only one side of it is consistently presented. The fact that I can instantly tell how a suite of model runs trended simply based on if there were any new posts from you between 9-10 and/or 11-12 kinda says it all.

And that is still information regarding actual model data. I don't control it and don't want to be wrong or disappointed. I just want to know what will happen.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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And that is still information regarding actual model data. I don't control it and don't want to be wrong or disappointed. I just want to know what will happen.

Yes, opinions play absolutely no role in your constant, OCD-driven narrative here. :rolleyes:

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10-day precip total per the 12Z GFS is pretty pathetic.   

 

gfs_apcpn_nwus_40.png

 

At least there's something...

 

Still cloudy here this morning after a low of 50*. 

Mercer Island, 350 ft

2021-2022: 11.6", 02/21

2020-2021: 15.6"

2019-2020: ~10"

2018-2019 winter snowfall total: 29.5"

2017-2018: 9.0", 2016-2017: 14.0"

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