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June 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

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#101
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 June 2019 - 05:36 PM

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Those high clouds are ruining my day. Grrrr. I think I’ll make a few more posts about it so Phil and Jesse say something to me and I can stay on here for another 8 hours debating high clouds. I hope my wife approves.

If you don’t like it ignore it or go somewhere else dude. Who cares how he spends his time it’s his life not yours.
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#102
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 June 2019 - 05:37 PM

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High temp of 75 again today pretty identical the last 3 days.

#103
High Desert Mat?

Posted 01 June 2019 - 05:37 PM

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Perfect day... 76 and sunny.

Some prom craziness this evening.

20190601-181259.jpg


Looks totally crazy.

#104
Jesse

Posted 01 June 2019 - 05:37 PM

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Beautiful day in the s valley. Currently 81F and getting hot in the house with the sun on the west side of it. Gets in the front porch door. Unfortunately we can only put 1 AC window unit in or else it blows our circuit. Still helps to sit next to it in the bedroom. Time to put it in on Monday.


At least now you can mow the grass safely/the kids can go to the park without catching rain cancer.
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#105
High Desert Mat?

Posted 01 June 2019 - 05:50 PM

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At least now you can mow the grass safely/the kids can go to the park without catching rain cancer.


Lol. Sorry. Made me laugh pretty good though.

#106
Eujunga

Posted 01 June 2019 - 07:03 PM

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80 / 53 today.  Exactly the sort of mid-summer weather I signed up for when choosing Eugene as my escape hatch.  Too bad it's only the first of June and the actual summer will likely be a lot hotter than this.


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#107
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 June 2019 - 08:20 PM

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You really need to get a life and get off the net sometimes. You’re the only person here that is constantly and reliably on here. Now you’re talking about high clouds? Good grief.


Well said!

#108
TT-SEA

Posted 01 June 2019 - 09:30 PM

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Some hope for nice weather again next weekend.   GFS and FV3 show the trough lifting out a little quicker.

 

Also... the morning low clouds might be pretty limited the next 3 days per the WRF.   It felt like some drier air filtered in this evening.    The haze was totally gone as well.



#109
jcmcgaffey

Posted 01 June 2019 - 10:07 PM

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Well said!

it’s statements like these and the folks that get onto Tim all the time (outside of Jesse, front ranger and Phil) that provide no benefit or info to the forum. I really enjoy analyzing the weather every day and Tims ECMWF post on the clouds was interesting and I enjoy all of his analysis even it is a bit obsessive:)

#110
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 June 2019 - 10:33 PM

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it’s statements like these and the folks that get onto Tim all the time (outside of Jesse, front ranger and Phil) that provide no benefit or info to the forum. I really enjoy analyzing the weather every day and Tims ECMWF post on the clouds was interesting and I enjoy all of his analysis even it is a bit obsessive:)

Yes! Who cares what tim or anyone does with their personal time! It’s more weird that a certain few people consistently come on here making comments about it, like you have nothing better to do than worry about what he’s doing with his life? It’s those certain few people who provide little to no subject matter to the forum by trying to troll. We should stick to the weather and not personal insults.

#111
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 01 June 2019 - 10:39 PM

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Nice late evening t'storm occurred here, this is the closest catch I got.

https://www.youtube....h?v=Am1N1EVF9VI

 

More video here. https://www.youtube....h?v=pZCfsRj5TJs


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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

 

2010-2011 - 58.20" (161%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 16.70" (46%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
 
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 11.00"
 
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 04.50"
Jan '20 -
Feb '20 -
Mar '20 -
Apr '20 -
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Severe Wind: 0
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 11 (2017), 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12 T'storm Days
Severe T'storms: 5 (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 


#112
TT-SEA

Posted 02 June 2019 - 05:54 AM

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Low cloud coverage greater this morning in SW WA and NW OR but much less over King County.

 

Sunny here... and in Seattle already.



#113
TT-SEA

Posted 02 June 2019 - 05:56 AM

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10-day precip total per the 00Z ECMWF.     Pathetic waste of a troughy pattern... pretty annoying even to me.

 

ecmwf-tprecip-washington-41.png



#114
TT-SEA

Posted 02 June 2019 - 06:31 AM

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00Z EPS lifted the trough out late in the week about 1 day faster than the operational run... so I expect the 12Z ECMWF will move in that direction.

 

Here is the 10-15 day mean from the 00Z EPS:

 

eps-z500a-5d-noram-61-1.png

 

eps-t850a-5d-noram-61.png



#115
Jesse

Posted 02 June 2019 - 07:04 AM

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Nice thick marine layer this morning, with a low of 51. Hopefully we can use up some thermal energy burning it off today, maybe come up a few degrees short of 80 this afternoon. I realize that would be a pretty big feat for early June...
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#116
TacomaWaWx

Posted 02 June 2019 - 08:35 AM

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Marine layer made it to my house this morning but not much further than that. Marine layer is going to be thicker the next few days. 54 currently but should be a nice day like the last 3 days!

#117
TT-SEA

Posted 02 June 2019 - 08:51 AM

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Marine layer made it to my house this morning but not much further than that. Marine layer is going to be thicker the next few days. 54 currently but should be a nice day like the last 3 days!

 

 

Marine layer will actually not be as persistent the next couple days with better mixing overhead.    Tomorrow and Tuesday look quite sunny.

 

Here is tomorrow... clears out even on the coast.   Same for Tuesday.   Wednesday is a different story.

 

intcld.36.0000.gif



#118
GHweatherChris

Posted 02 June 2019 - 08:59 AM

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it’s statements like these and the folks that get onto Tim all the time (outside of Jesse, front ranger and Phil) that provide no benefit or info to the forum. I really enjoy analyzing the weather every day and Tims ECMWF post on the clouds was interesting and I enjoy all of his analysis even it is a bit obsessive:)


Lol

#119
TacomaWaWx

Posted 02 June 2019 - 08:59 AM

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Marine layer will actually not be as persistent the next couple days with better mixing overhead. Tomorrow and Tuesday look quite sunny.

Here is tomorrow... clears out even on the coast. Same for Tuesday. Wednesday is a different story.

intcld.36.0000.gif

Hopefully you are right. Nws forecast discussion made mention of increased onshore flow tonight so it could mean a later breakout on Monday but I’m all for less marine layer coverage.

#120
TT-SEA

Posted 02 June 2019 - 09:09 AM

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Hopefully you are right. Nws forecast discussion made mention of increased onshore flow tonight so it could mean a later breakout on Monday but I’m all for less marine layer coverage.


They are not paying attention to the details. Just assuming onshore flow means more gloom... but it also means better mixing.

#121
GHweatherChris

Posted 02 June 2019 - 09:18 AM

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Yes! Who cares what tim or anyone does with their personal time! It’s more weird that a certain few people consistently come on here making comments about it, like you have nothing better to do than worry about what he’s doing with his life? It’s those certain few people who provide little to no subject matter to the forum by trying to troll. We should stick to the weather and not personal insults.


Then what is the point of this post? #hypocrisy
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#122
Jesse

Posted 02 June 2019 - 09:26 AM

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Then what is the point of this post? #hypocrisy


Yeah, a post worrying about other people’s posts that worry about others peoples posts seems sort of ironic.

#123
Jesse

Posted 02 June 2019 - 09:27 AM

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At least the 12z GFS is a tad wetter with the trough next week.

#124
jcmcgaffey

Posted 02 June 2019 - 09:35 AM

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Yeah, a post worrying about other people’s posts that worry about others peoples posts seems sort of ironic.

my post was towards the folks who never seem to contribute anything to the forum except snide/negative remarks about others.

#125
Jesse

Posted 02 June 2019 - 09:43 AM

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my post was towards the folks who never seem to contribute anything to the forum except snide/negative remarks about others.


There are a handful. Matt, Domebuster, etc. I wasn’t talking about your post though really.

#126
TacomaWaWx

Posted 02 June 2019 - 09:46 AM

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Then what is the point of this post? #hypocrisy

I’m not too worried because I can only control what I do not what you do, have more things to be worried about in my life than some people on a weather forum. I just think certain people come on here to only troll, again nothing I can do about that since I’m not a moderator. All I’m saying is can we focus on the weather instead of argumentative jabs and trying to troll people?

#127
Jesse

Posted 02 June 2019 - 09:59 AM

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I’m not too worried because I can only control what I do not what you do, have more things to be worried about in my life than some people on a weather forum. I just think certain people come on here to only troll, again nothing I can do about that since I’m not a moderator. All I’m saying is can we focus on the weather instead of argumentative jabs and trying to troll people?


You make a good point, but the problem with Tim is he jabs and trolls all the time then plays the innocent card when he gets the reaction he wants. In his case the best way to win is not to play of course, not responding is the quickest route to neutralization. I definitely gave in too much yesterday and it’s something I’ll try to work on in the future. I think reading over the pages of posts I missed and seeing all the jabs and troll attempts even when I’m on the other side of the world enjoying a nice vacation had me feeling pretty irritated.

#128
TacomaWaWx

Posted 02 June 2019 - 10:06 AM

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You make a good point, but the problem with Tim is he jabs and trolls all the time then plays the innocent card when he gets the reaction he wants. In his case the best way to win is not to play of course, not responding is the quickest route to neutralization. I definitely gave in too much yesterday and it’s something I’ll try to work on in the future. I think reading over the pages of posts and seeing all the jabs and troll attempts even when I’m on the other side of the world enjoying a nice vacation had me feeling pretty irritated.

you certainly are not the problem. Phil and front ranger aren’t either. Tim is definitely not innocent either I understand that. My post was referring to what jcmgaffey said about Matt and domebuster and posters like that. Again I can’t control what anyone says I just want people to lay off trying to insult and troll people since this is a weather forum. However I understand that my post yesterday is kind of ironic and I am in a way worrying about what other people post and I’ll try to refrain from that and just ignore it.
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#129
Jesse

Posted 02 June 2019 - 10:16 AM

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you certainly are not the problem. Phil and front ranger aren’t either. Tim is definitely not innocent either I understand that. My post was referring to what jcmgaffey said about Matt and domebuster and posters like that. Again I can’t control what anyone says I just want people to lay off trying to insult and troll people since this is a weather forum. However I understand that my post yesterday is kind of ironic and I am in a way worrying about what other people post and I’ll try to refrain from that and just ignore it.


I’m definitely not 100% innocent either but I appreciate the sentiment. But yeah overall you make some solid points here.

#130
jcmcgaffey

Posted 02 June 2019 - 10:17 AM

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There are a handful. Matt, Domebuster, etc. I wasn’t talking about your post though really.

ya I do genuinely enjoy most of what the main posters put on here, even the bickering can be pretty informative even if there is ill will meant:). I was glad to find this group years ago and it’s nice to discuss with others who have the same interests and still enjoy reading up on everyone’s comments usually on a daily basis.
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#131
Jesse

Posted 02 June 2019 - 10:46 AM

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12z Euro holds the trough back a bit and keeps next weekend cooler and cloudier. Looks like PDX could have their first shot at 90 of the season early the following week, though.

#132
Kayla

Posted 02 June 2019 - 10:57 AM

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12z Euro holds the trough back a bit and keeps next weekend cooler and cloudier. Looks like PDX could have their first shot at 90 of the season early the following week, though.

 

Seems a tad wetter (especially east side) but I haven't been following things that closely. Good eye on the temp, first 90 of the year does indeed look possible.

 

dc3dq1.pngozpet.png


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Cold Season 2019/20:

Total snowfall: 53.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 12.0º

Coldest low: -9.1º

Number of subzero days: 2

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#133
Jesse

Posted 02 June 2019 - 11:07 AM

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Seems a tad wetter (especially east side) but I haven't been following things that closely. Good eye on the temp, first 90 of the year does indeed look possible.


Really happy to see a wetter trend on the models this morning with the next trough. Hope it holds.

And yeah the 90 possibilities are out at days 9-10 but the second week of June feels about right. I think that is pretty close to climo for our first 90 down here.
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#134
TT-SEA

Posted 02 June 2019 - 11:08 AM

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Definitely a little bit wetter.

 

ecmwf-tprecip-washington-41-2.png



#135
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 June 2019 - 11:15 AM

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Definitely a little bit wetter.

ecmwf-tprecip-washington-41-2.png

That would be a pretty solid rainfall here if it verified

#136
TacomaWaWx

Posted 02 June 2019 - 11:32 AM

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Definitely a little bit wetter.

ecmwf-tprecip-washington-41-2.png

except for me tacoma getting rainshadowed of course. Clouds cleared out pretty quickly this morning up to 66 and another beautiful day.

#137
TT-SEA

Posted 02 June 2019 - 11:35 AM

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12Z EPS still shows the trough lifting out about a day sooner than the operational run... it shows the ridge in place and 850mb temps above normal by Sunday.



#138
TT-SEA

Posted 02 June 2019 - 11:50 AM

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EPS also does not look as hot next week as the operational run.

#139
Jesse

Posted 02 June 2019 - 11:51 AM

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EPS also does not look as hot next week as the operational run.


It’s a smoothed ensemble mean, not an operational model. Of course it’s not going to look as amplified.

#140
TT-SEA

Posted 02 June 2019 - 12:05 PM

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It’s a smoothed ensemble mean, not an operational model. Of course it’s not going to look as amplified.


Sometimes the anomalies are pretty strong on there. In February... the cold anomalies looked intense even at day 15.

#141
Jesse

Posted 02 June 2019 - 12:25 PM

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Sometimes the anomalies are pretty strong on there. In February... the cold anomalies looked intense even at day 15.


Anomalies aside, the average 500mb pattern is almost always a lot smoother at that range than what ends up verifying. February included. That is the nature of long range ensemble means.

#142
TT-SEA

Posted 02 June 2019 - 12:38 PM

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Anomalies aside, the average 500mb pattern is almost always a lot smoother at that range than what ends up verifying. February included. That is the nature of long range ensemble means.


I understand that. And I am accounting for that as well. It does not look as hot.

#143
Phil

Posted 02 June 2019 - 03:22 PM

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(OT). So this blew through my neighborhood a few hours ago. Gusts were probably near hurricane force in the core w/ wuarter sized hail. I’ll link my own video later.

https://mobile.twitt...311468025524230
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Personal Weather Station Live Stream.
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily


#144
K%%

Posted 02 June 2019 - 03:34 PM

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(OT). So this blew through my neighborhood a few hours ago. Gusts were probably near hurricane force in the core w/ wuarter sized hail. I’ll link my own video later.

https://mobile.twitt...311468025524230

 

Lucky  :wub:


"Man is made by his beliefs. As he believes, so he is."

 

-Bhagavad Gita

 

"The way I look at it, as long as you make it out of a battle alive, you're one step closer to fulfilling your dream."

 

-Seifer Almasy (VIII)


#145
TT-SEA

Posted 02 June 2019 - 03:54 PM

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Out on Sammamish again today... sand bar is still below water but getting closer Boats are starting to pull up now. Water is ankle deep there. Lake level is slowly dropping to normal summer level.

20190602-165527.jpg

#146
TacomaWaWx

Posted 02 June 2019 - 04:16 PM

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High clouds have rolled in the last hour or 2 here. Just cloudy skies now and 70 degrees a little cooler than yesterday. Also getting some cool SW breezes here.

#147
TT-SEA

Posted 02 June 2019 - 04:20 PM

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High clouds have rolled in the last hour or 2 here. Just cloudy skies now and 70 degrees a little cooler than yesterday. Also getting some cool SW breezes here.


Was 79 when we came off lake... high clouds now but looks like the ingredients for a gorgeous sunset are in place.

#148
GHweatherChris

Posted 02 June 2019 - 04:59 PM

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(OT). So this blew through my neighborhood a few hours ago. Gusts were probably near hurricane force in the core w/ wuarter sized hail. I’ll link my own video later.

https://mobile.twitt...311468025524230


Wrong thread.
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#149
TacomaWaWx

Posted 02 June 2019 - 05:11 PM

TacomaWaWx

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Was 79 when we came off lake... high clouds now but looks like the ingredients for a gorgeous sunset are in place.

Yeah looks like a nice sunset to end off the weekend. Definitely some cooler air coming in here onshore winds have kicked up. Made it up to 73 now it’s down to 69 here.

#150
Omegaraptor

Posted 02 June 2019 - 06:48 PM

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NW wind kicking in.


No rain here until Hour 258.