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June 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW


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You mean the people who pointed out the factual correct drought? ;)

The massive “we are all going to die” drought you mean?

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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You mean the people who pointed out the factual correct drought? ;)

No... the people who assumed it has to be scorching hot and dry all summer. Patterns change and regimes change.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You often seem to ask questions that cannot be answered. The EPS goes out 15 days. And 15 days is a crapshoot. August is nothing but a coin flip right now... you can make your own forecast.

 

If they invent a weather model that can accurately predict weather 2 months away... you will hear all about it here first!

 

Don't hold your breath. :)

 

To his credit, your post was misleading by saying that the "EPS does not show any heatwaves in July" when it clearly only goes out to the 6th. The second, third, or forth week of July could very well end up being a scorcher.

Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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But I thought we were all going to burn up and die with endless heat and massive droughts and famine and smoke...this summer. What are the fear-mongers going to talk about now?

 

You do realize this map only goes to July 6th right?

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Cold Season 2023/24:

Total snowfall: 26"

Highest daily snowfall: 5"

Deepest snow depth: 12"

Coldest daily high: -20ºF

Coldest daily low: -42ºF

Number of subzero days: 5

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wunderground.com/personal-weather-station/dashboard?ID=KMTBOZEM152#history

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To his credit, your post was misleading by saying that the "EPS does not show any heatwaves through July" when it clearly only goes out to the 6th. The second, third, or forth week of July could very well end up being a scorcher.

Whoops. Might have forgot the word "early".

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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You do realize this map only goes to July 6th right?

The fear mongers are sweating cold bullets right now at the thought that they might have to find another thing to flip out about if this cool and damp pattern persists.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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The first 10 or so days of July last year were perfectly average, maybe even a bit cooler than normal. Guess you guys have forgotten that.

 

In addition, while that was happening, heat waves were raging in southern California and in the Midwest.

 

Now, while we're under troughing next week, heat waves are set to rage in the Plains and in Europe.

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The angst in here from the heat misers is hilarious given the month is still running way warmer than average. A few cool weeks and y’all are spinning narratives like there’s no tomorrow.

 

I can’t wait to see the reactions in here when the next round of cool summers arrives in the early 2020s, with that next strong multiyear -ENSO cycle.

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The angst in here from the heat misers is hilarious given the month is still running way warmer than average. A few cool weeks and y’all are spinning narratives like there’s no tomorrow.

 

I can’t wait to see the reactions in here when the next round of cool summers arrives in the early 2020s, with that next strong multiyear -ENSO cycle.

 

 

Yeah... heat misers.   75-80 is heaven to me.    Is that heat to you, Phil?    Maybe I am really a DC cold miser just like you.  We are cheering for the exact same weather.      ;)  

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Major deep solar minimum in progress now with 33 consecutive spotless days and very low flux numbers.  Filtered imagery of the sun indicates it is in a deeper sleep now than it was earlier in the spotless period as the sun appears as perfectly unblemished as a Q ball.  This spotless run could go for 50 days or more quite easily.  At the same time major cold upwelling off the coast of South America is wiping out the last vestiges of the El Nino.  Things are aligning nicely for next winter at this point.

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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The angst in here from the heat misers is hilarious given the month is still running way warmer than average. A few cool weeks and y’all are spinning narratives like there’s no tomorrow.

 

I can’t wait to see the reactions in here when the next round of cool summers arrives in the early 2020s, with that next strong multiyear -ENSO cycle.

 

No doubt cooler summers will return at some point.  In fact June has nothing to do with how July and August play out historically speaking so this one could still be cool.   We used to have summers with almost no hot weather pretty regularly.  No reason that can't happen again.

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2023-24 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 1.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 1

Total Hail = 0.0

Total Ice = 0.2

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 45

Highs 32 or below = 3

Lows 20 or below = 3

Highs 40 or below = 9

 

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The angst in here from the heat misers is hilarious given the month is still running way warmer than average. A few cool weeks and y’all are spinning narratives like there’s no tomorrow.

 

I can’t wait to see the reactions in here when the next round of cool summers arrives in the early 2020s, with that next strong multiyear -ENSO cycle.

They are the very vocal minority. The rest of us are out enjoying the beautiful late spring and summer weather!
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Major deep solar minimum in progress now with 33 consecutive spotless days and very low flux numbers.  Filtered imagery of the sun indicates it is in a deeper sleep now than it was earlier in the spotless period as the sun appears as perfectly unblemished as a Q ball.  This spotless run could go for 50 days or more quite easily.  At the same time major cold upwelling off the coast of South America is wiping out the last vestiges of the El Nino.  Things are aligning nicely for next winter at this point.

 

Most models are showing some kind of positive ENSO state lasting through at least the early part of the winter. I don't  think that is necessarily a bad thing. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Major deep solar minimum in progress now with 33 consecutive spotless days and very low flux numbers.  Filtered imagery of the sun indicates it is in a deeper sleep now than it was earlier in the spotless period as the sun appears as perfectly unblemished as a Q ball.  This spotless run could go for 50 days or more quite easily.  At the same time major cold upwelling off the coast of South America is wiping out the last vestiges of the El Nino.  Things are aligning nicely for next winter at this point.

I see you’re an optimist.

 

I would be surprised if next winter was genuinely cold and wet at the same time. Extra surprise if it isn’t backloaded.

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00Z ECMWF is decent... a more traditional mid-summer pattern emerging with a warm up starting next Friday.    

 

Wednesday and Thursday are the best chances for rain for everyone.    Also... Sunday (2 days from now) looks quite damp and cloudy from Seattle to Bellingham eastward.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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58F and some decent stars out tonight for the s valley for now with a handful of clouds but nothing too bad.

 

As for the coming winter. It’s going to be a dud down here. We are due for one. I think PDX and Washington County will get nailed again tho. And it will be decent up north in Washington too.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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00Z ECMWF is decent... a more traditional mid-summer pattern emerging with a warm up starting next Friday.

 

Wednesday and Thursday are the best chances for rain for everyone. Also... Sunday (2 days from now) looks quite damp and cloudy from Seattle to Bellingham eastward.

Looks like I will be mowing today!

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Major deep solar minimum in progress now with 33 consecutive spotless days and very low flux numbers.  Filtered imagery of the sun indicates it is in a deeper sleep now than it was earlier in the spotless period as the sun appears as perfectly unblemished as a Q ball.  This spotless run could go for 50 days or more quite easily.  At the same time major cold upwelling off the coast of South America is wiping out the last vestiges of the El Nino.  Things are aligning nicely for next winter at this point.

 

Lima, Peru has a nasty marine layer, although there it's called "la garua". They are pretty much socked in all day from May to November there with drizzle almost every morning. This is crazy considering they're in the tropics. Ocean temperature is normally in the low 60s.

 

However, it seems at least 25% of people love gloomy, damp, overcast weather and cannot tolerate sunshine.

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Lima, Peru has a nasty marine layer, although there it's called "la garua". They are pretty much socked in all day from May to November there with drizzle almost every morning. This is crazy considering they're in the tropics. Ocean temperature is normally in the low 60s.

 

However, it seems at least 25% of people love gloomy, damp, overcast weather and cannot tolerate sunshine.

 

 

Crazy climate in Lima... particularly for being at 12S.

 

They average less sunshine than London or Moscow annually... and yet also averages less than 1 inch of rain per year!  Strange combination... a perpetually gloomy desert.

 

And they only average 20-30 hours of sunshine total each month during the Jul-Sep period which is winter there.

 

Once you get outside of the city... the landscape is virtually lifeless since it basically never rains.

 

lima.png

 

 

But go inland a couple hundred miles in Peru and the landscape is lush...

 

peru.png

 

1280px-Koppen-Geiger-Map-PER-present-svg

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Crazy climate in Lima... particularly for being at 12S.

 

They average less sunshine than London or Moscow annually... and yet also averages less than 1 inch of rain per year!  Strange combination... a perpetually gloomy desert.

 

And they only average 20-30 hours of sunshine total each month during the Jul-Sep period which is winter there.

 

Once you get outside of the city... the landscape is virtually lifeless since it basically never rains.

 

lima.png

 

 

But go inland a couple hundred miles in Peru and the landscape is lush...

 

peru.png

 

1280px-Koppen-Geiger-Map-PER-present-svg

 

Peru would be an interesting place to visit. Lots of poverty.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Peru would be an interesting place to visit. Lots of poverty.

 

 

Yeah... appears so.    I am doing a Google street view tour.    The scenery in the Andes Mountains east of Lima is spectacular... but there is lots of poverty too.

 

peru2.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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As of now... the EPS is looking pretty summery during the week of the 4th and the long weekend.  

 

Could end up being a marine layer fest down in CA though. 

 

eps-t850a-5d-noram-61-2.png

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Yeah... appears so.    I am doing a Google street view tour.    The scenery in the Andes Mountains east of Lima is spectacular... but there is lots of poverty too.

 

peru2.png

 

Honestly, those houses are a little nicer than the ones I saw on the Navajo Reservation in NE Arizona when I went there back in March. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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53 and partly sunny after a low of 44. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Sunny and 60. Though the breeze feels cool today.

Want to trade? Looks like I will be doing an evening mow now due to the heavy drizzle currently.

Elevation 580’ Location a few miles east of I-5 on the Snohomish Co side of the Snohomish/Skagit border. I love snow/cold AND sun/warmth! 

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Want to trade? Looks like I will be doing an evening mow now due to the heavy drizzle currently.

 

Certain areas see lots of sun with warm season troughing and certain areas are persistently gloomy.

 

That is the main reason for the difference in people's perception of summer troughing on here.   Very different results depending on your location.     

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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55 and mostly cloudy day 10:30am. Hopefully we can get some sunshine later today since there won’t be much over the next few days.

Tacoma WA elevation 300’

Monthly rainfall-3.56”

Warm season rainfall-11.14”

Max temp-88

+80 highs-2

+85 highs-2

+90 highs-0

 

 

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55 and mostly cloudy day 10:30am. Hopefully we can get some sunshine later today since there won’t be much over the next few days.

Actually all the models show much less in the way of low clouds starting Monday and beyond.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Certain areas see lots of sun with warm season troughing and certain areas are persistently gloomy.

 

That is the main reason for the difference in people's perception of summer troughing on here. Very different results depending on your location.

There is some patches of low cloud now, especially near the water. I do appreciate the general lack of marine layer we see up here.
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The fear mongers are sweating cold bullets right now at the thought that they might have to find another thing to flip out about if this cool and damp pattern persists.

Drizzle is really the only thing worth flipping out about.

 

#lightmistcausescancer

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Drizzle is really the only thing worth flipping out about.

 

#lightmistcausescancer

 

 

Yeah... he was really flipping out by reporting what is happening.   Hyperbole.   :rolleyes:

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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Interesting how the pattern looks to flip right around the time the calendar changes.

 

8809C7D7-A34D-4423-94F6-6F33078C85B4.png

 

Looks warmer but with the potential for some variability still. A July with 2-3 relatively short (~3 day) bouts of heat, some marine layer days, a convective episode or two, and one nice rain event at some point would be perfection. Variety!

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