June 2019 Weather Discussion in the PNW

[Jesse]

Yeah... he was really flipping out by reporting what is happening. Hyperbole.

He went on a drizzle-triggered tirade against “fear mongers” who have also just been reporting what is happening; with regard to the drought, recent string of hot summers, gradually warming climate, etc.

 

#irony

[TT-SEA]

Looks warmer but with the potential for some variability still. A July with 2-3 relatively short (~3 day) bouts of heat, some marine layer days, a convective episode or two, and one nice rain event at some point would be perfection. Variety!

 

Sounds much better than perpetual marine layer.    Nature just gets in these seemingly endless ruts lately.

[Deweydog]

Warm ups following cool downs???

 

Weird year!

[TT-SEA]

He went on a drizzle-triggered tirade against “fear mongers” who have also just been reporting what is happening, with regard to the drought/recent string of hot summers, gradually warming climate, etc.

 

#irony

 

Not really a tirade... just tongue in cheek.  

[Jesse]

Warm ups following cool downs???

 

Weird year!

Was mostly pointing out that it’s funny how it flips right around June 30/July 1. I guess that could change.

[Jesse]

Not really a tirade... just tongue in cheek.

If it was from me, you would call it a tirade, and lie that I was sending you evil PMs for a cherry on top.

[TT-SEA]

If it was from me, you would call it a tirade, and lie that I was sending you evil PMs for a cherry on top.

 

More hyperbole!   

[Deweydog]

Was mostly pointing out that it’s funny how it flips right around June 30/July 1. I guess that could change.

Even weirderer considering summer doesn’t start until July 5th! LOL!

[TT-SEA]

Even weirderer considering summer doesn’t start until July 5th! LOL!

 

Summer might come a couple days early this year!  

[Jesse]

More hyperbole!

No, that is straight up fact. I guess hyperbole is a nice word to hide behind when you don’t like what someone is saying.

[TT-SEA]

No, that is straight up fact. I guess hyperbole is a nice word to hide behind when you don’t like what someone is saying.

 

 

OK Jesse.   

[Jesse]

Even weirderer considering summer doesn’t start until July 5th! LOL!

That axiom feels so outdated.

[TT-SEA]

That axiom feels so outdated.

 

It still makes sense... as it always has around here.

 

It does not mean there is no summer weather before July 5th... but that is typically when summer hits its stride finally.   

[Deweydog]

That axiom feels so outdated.

Should have gone with anachronistic instead of outdated.

[TT-SEA]

I was really hoping the upcoming trough would kick out by the end of next week as we rented a house and boat on Ohop Lake for their fireworks show next weekend and would love some hot weather. 

 

Buuuuuut, doesn't look like that's going to happen. #SummerIsGone

 

The 00Z ECMWF and now the 12Z ECMWF offer some hope for actual summery weather next weekend.    

 

Surface maps show plenty of sun (no marine layer until mid-afternoon) and temps warming into the upper 70s to low 80s.    Not a heat wave... but better than this weekend for sure.

 

Here is next Sunday per the 12Z ECMWF... good enough to be on the lake and not be freezing cold.

 

[Jesse]

It still makes sense... as it always has around here.

 

It does not mean there is no summer weather before July 5th... but that is typically when summer hits its stride finally.

I guess we’ll see how well it holds up the next few decades.

 

#fearmongering

[Jesse]

All cold sweat aside, it is pretty nice to see the potential for a soaking rain event for much of the west side later next week.

 

Would be great timing, and if it really did turn out to be as significant as advertised, I would feel more ready to embrace some sustained summery weather on the back end.

[TacomaWaWx]

All cold sweat aside, it is pretty nice to see the potential for a soaking rain event for much of the west side later next week.

 

Would be great timing, and if it really did turn out to be as significant as advertised, I would feel more ready to embrace some sustained summery weather on the back end.

Hopefully it all works out that way. Been fairly dry here with 0.62” of rain since May 1st. Some places have done better but in my little microclimate area it’s been pretty dry with 12.05” total on the year.

[TT-SEA]

All cold sweat aside, it is pretty nice to see the potential for a soaking rain event for much of the west side later next week.

 

Would be great timing, and if it really did turn out to be as significant as advertised, I would feel more ready to embrace some sustained summery weather on the back end.

 

The pattern from Monday - Friday looks much more enjoyable in my opinion.     Some occasional bands of rain or convection and sun in between.

 

And likewise... I am much more ready to embrace more rain knowing there is some summery weather on the back end.   Variety is good.  

[Jesse]

Hopefully it all works out that way. Been fairly dry here with 0.62” of rain since May 1st. Some places have done better but in my little microclimate area it’s been pretty dry with 12.05” total on the year.

To be fair, I think your little microclimate is probably more representative of the populated region than other people’s little microclimates.

[TT-SEA]

Total rain per the 12Z ECMWF:

 

[TT-SEA]

To be fair, I think your little microclimate is probably more representative of the populated region than other people’s little microclimates.

 

Its been drier than normal across the entire region... but Seattle and Bellingham have had almost 3 times as much rain as his location since May 1st.

[Jesse]

Its been drier than normal across the entire region... but Seattle and Bellingham have had almost 3 times as much rain as his location since May 1st.

But that’s probably still like five times less than what has fallen into your little yellow rain gauge.

[TT-SEA]

But that’s probably still like five times less than what has fallen into your little yellow rain gauge.

 

True... but in line in terms of anomalies.

 

I was in Tacoma on Thursday to pick up my son at a car dealership.   Its much greener once you get north of Federal Way.   That area down there has been repeatedly screwed over the last 2 months.  

 

It can be drier than normal and still green... but Tacoma has been much worse.

[Jesse]

True... but in line in terms of anomalies.

 

I was in Tacoma on Thursday to pick up my son at a car dealership. Its much greener once you get north of Federal Way. That area down there has been repeatedly screwed over the last 2 months.

 

It can be drier than normal and still green... but Tacoma has been much worse.

Nice anecdote. I also heard that Mossman saw a slug in his yard. I just contacted the Climate Prediction center and had them change the seasonal drought outlook for the region to reflect this new information.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Major deep solar minimum in progress now with 33 consecutive spotless days and very low flux numbers. Filtered imagery of the sun indicates it is in a deeper sleep now than it was earlier in the spotless period as the sun appears as perfectly unblemished as a Q ball. This spotless run could go for 50 days or more quite easily. At the same time major cold upwelling off the coast of South America is wiping out the last vestiges of the El Nino. Things are aligning nicely for next winter at this point.

One of the reasons why I'm forecasting another cold and snowy winter here in the PNW, west of the Cascades. Going to be another blocky winter, just going to be a matter of where it sets up shop.

[Requiem]

One of the reasons why I'm forecasting another cold and snowy winter here in the PNW, west of the Cascades. Going to be another blocky winter, just going to be a matter of where it sets up shop.

 

My hope is that everyone from Vancouver to Redding can somehow get at least a few inches of snow. Perhaps a pipe dream, but we'll see.

[TT-SEA]

Nice anecdote. I also heard that Mossman saw a slug in his yard. I just contacted the Climate Prediction center and had them change the seasonal drought outlook for the region to reflect this new information.

 

Yes... I said it has been wetter than normal in Seattle.  

 

Good Lord.    Hyperbole.

 

But... there is a noticeable difference because the 1.5 - 2 inches of rain that has fallen around the Seattle area (even more in some places) is much better than the .50 or so in Tacoma since May 1st.     

[Omegaraptor]

Yes... I said it has been wetter than normal in Seattle.  

 

Good Lord.    Hyperbole.

 

But... there is a noticeable difference because the 1.5 - 2 inches of rain that has fallen around the Seattle area (even more in some places) is much better than the .50 or so in Tacoma since May 1st.     

 

Is Tacoma getting screwed because of the convergence zone?

 

Even Portland managed 1.5" this May.

[TacomaWaWx]

Its been drier than normal across the entire region... but Seattle and Bellingham have had almost 3 times as much rain as his location since May 1st.

Yeah some areas just a few miles north and east of here have done decently better over the last 2 months.

[TacomaWaWx]

Is Tacoma getting screwed because of the convergence zone?

 

Even Portland managed 1.5" this May.

shadowing off the Olympics from NW flow.

[TT-SEA]

Is Tacoma getting screwed because of the convergence zone?

 

Even Portland managed 1.5" this May.

 

 

Lack of SW flow... most of the rain events have been in NW flow.   That puts Olympia and Tacoma squarely in the screw zone.

[TacomaWaWx]

Only 56 degrees here as of 1pm and no sunshine at all. Cold day so far.

[Jesse]

Only 56 degrees here as of 1pm and no sunshine at all. Cold day so far.

I remember when this weekend was supposed to be partly cloudy and warm. Sort of a nice surprise.

[TacomaWaWx]

I remember when this weekend was supposed to be partly cloudy and warm. Sort of a nice surprise.

yesterday was much nicer than today. Hit 68 yesterday if the sun comes out today it might hit 65. Overall I’m not complaining about this pattern I’ll take it over upper 80s and 90s.

[Phil]

Only 56 degrees here as of 1pm and no sunshine at all. Cold day so far.

Sounds heavenly.

 

Especially compared to the 90-100 degree hell fire upcoming here next week, under swamp conditions.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

[TT-SEA]

Beautiful 69F in Eugene. Same temp inside as outside

 

 

Puget Sound region locked in the gunk... cloudy and cold at 1 p.m. during the longest days of the year.    Feels like February or November.

 

 

Portland about to clear out.

 

South of Portland... beautiful.

 

I would love summer troughing too if I lived in Eugene.   

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Sounds heavenly.

 

Especially compared to the 90-100 degree hell fire upcoming here next week, under swamp conditions.

Went to Tulum and Cobá in Quintana Roo on the Yucatán peninsula. Can confirm 100F + temps with ridiculous humidity is like a curtain of sweat.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Mostly sunny and 66F here, not seeing this marine layer people are talking about.