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Fall and Winter 2019-20 Predictions and Discussion


Omegaraptor

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Gave us a nice aurora show here in NW Montana. Blech.

 

So much for that going for us. Funny how we craft a narrative sometimes, only to have it fall apart in front of us. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Sounds like Andrew is already MOLTING into his winter coat.

 

Would you expect anything less?

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Big AP index spike the last two days. Blech.

 

That's most unfortunate.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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Also definitely will not be a Nina this winter. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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There was just one in Russia that sent a plume to 70,000 feet and there have been two others that also breached the stratosphere this year.  I saw a picture a few days ago from New Mexico that indicated aerosols in the stratosphere indicated by a purple tint at sunrise.

"The recently reported eruption on 25 Aug alerting of an ash plume as high as 70,000 ft (21300 m) did not take place

There is no data (satellite-based, direct observations etc) to confirm an eruption of this magnitude. 

The report was based on an erroneous alert from the Anchorage VAAC. An eruption did take place, observed by a group of people staying nearby and who sent us images on social media, but it was "only" producing an ash column rising approx. 23,000 ft (7 km) - something not unusual for Shiveluch which has been having eruptions of this size for decades at irregular intervals."

 

 

https://www.volcanodiscovery.com/shiveluch/news/86123/Shiveluch-volcano-Kamchatka-Russia-no-major-eruption-on-25-Aug-ash-plume-only-to-23000-and-not-70000.html

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Is every single Pacific system going to crash into CA again this winter leaving the PNW with well below average precipitation?

That would be lovely!

 

Sure hope so. Endless rain is stupid.

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**

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That would be lovely!

Sure hope so. Endless rain is stupid.

You would absolutely love the climate in Washington County. When it’s drier than normal, it actually feels drier than normal and we consistently get less snow than the rest of the area. In fact, we only got 2-3” total for the 2018-19 winter.

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You would absolutely love the climate in Washington County. When it’s drier than normal, it actually feels drier than normal and we consistently get less snow than the rest of the area. In fact, we only got 2-3” total for the 2018-19 winter.

 

We had 0" from Feb 1995-Dec 2003. By far the longest snowless stretch in the entire records we have.  It won't be that bad.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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We had 0" from Feb 1995-Dec 2003. By far the longest snowless stretch in the entire records we have.  It won't be that bad.

 

EUG reported 4" of snow on 2/28/1996

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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EUG reported 4" of snow on 2/28/1996

Gotcha so 1 year off. It’s still by far the longest snowless stretch in the records for here.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Anyway I’ll stop the Washington County bashing. Further advancements being made in the tropical Pacific:

 

846F5785-0273-4F31-856A-20DCE0439649.png

 

A5CA04FB-DB8C-4A11-817D-E75CA5834569.png

 

NOAA anomaly map:

 

D258D84C-E6DF-48DA-8CCA-1376B47C09D7.gif

 

How much does the Blob actually impact our weather? Phil said it’s overrated and doesn’t have much effect.

The blob seems to always be here during Summer, at least the last several years, but will likely go away in the Fall when the usual parade of storms causes a lot of upwelling.

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If I recall the blob was on steroids around this time in 2016, and as you may remember the following winter turned out alright. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Wow that actually sounds horrible. Sure, 99-05 was pretty bad for the PNW sans 03-04, but at that rate you might as well be living in San Francisco.

2001-02 had a lot of chilly weather close by but it had a tough time dropping south of the border until March, but by then it is getting too late for a lot of the lowlands. Shawnigan Lake had 56” of snow that winter.
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96/97 through 2002/03 were pretty horrible in the Central Willamette Valley too. 

 

Biggest snow event during that time was probably the January 2002 event which was 2-3" most spots, though some of the outlying places up around 500' had 4-6" with that. We missed out on the big January 1998 snow that hit Portland. 

 

Highlight of that period was probably the Dec 1998 arctic blast. 

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I was just thinking, Saturday marked 8 years living here and we've only had one major arctic outbreak during that time. 

 

Though February 2014 and January 2017 were nice modified events. Even though 850mb temps only bottomed out around -9/-10C with those two events we did manage to score a 23/13 day in February 2014, and a 25/13 day in January 2017. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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I was just thinking, Saturday marked 8 years living here and we've only had one major arctic outbreak during that time.

 

Though February 2014 and January 2017 were nice modified events. Even though 850mb temps only bottomed out around -9/-10C with those two events we did manage to score a 23/13 day in February 2014, and a 25/13 day in January 2017.

Yea, the Arctic air intrusions have generally been pretty tame over the last decade. Shawnigan Lake averaged 1 low of 14F or lower per year during the 1981-2010 period. We haven’t dropped below 15F since December of 2008. Despite that we have seen some very nice snow events.
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Yea, the Arctic air intrusions have generally been pretty tame over the last decade. Shawnigan Lake averaged 1 low of 14F or lower per year during the 1981-2010 period. We haven’t dropped below 15F since December of 2008. Despite that we have seen some very nice snow events.

That's pretty crazy, considering all the places further south that got colder than that in Dec 2009, Nov 2010, Feb 2011, and Dec 2013.

A forum for the end of the world.

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January 2017 saw some pretty cold lows in the Willamette Valley with that cold shot centered around the 5th. And then with the snow cover PDX hit 11 about a week later. Lows for the month.

 

PDX: 11

EUG: 13

SLE:  14

 

Coldest January lows at these locations in several decades.

Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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January 2017 saw some pretty cold lows in the Willamette Valley with that cold shot centered around the 5th. And then with the snow cover PDX hit 11 about a week later. Lows for the month.

 

PDX: 11

EUG: 13

SLE:  14

 

Coldest January lows at these locations in several decades.

You forgot the 3°F at HIO. Easily the most impressive reading that month and proof that the Portland metro can still manage subzero outside of the UHI with the right setup.

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So when was the region's last legitimately chilly fall (not talking just slightly below average)? 2007 maybe?

 

2007, or 2000 depending on what you mean by "legitimate".

 

For WA/OR/ID in meteorological fall, 2007 was 0.3F below the 20th century average. 2000 was 1.8F below it.

 

They are the only two cooler than average falls the region has seen since 1996.

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2007, or 2000 depending on what you mean by "legitimate".

 

For WA/OR/ID in meteorological fall, 2007 was 0.3F below the 20th century average. 2000 was 1.8F below it.

 

They are the only two cooler than average falls the region has seen since 1996.

 

Amazing stats there. I remember fall of 2000 well. Was a chilly football season and once we got into November things got really cold. Had a quarterfinal game down in Douglas County the week before Thanksgiving where the game time temp at 1pm was only about 40 degrees and the field was a mudpit thawing from the hard freeze that morning. One of the most iconic Civil War football games was played that day. Oregon would have gone to the Rose Bowl had they won, but the Beavers knocked them off and earned a Fiesta Bowl berth. Was a 48/20 day in Corvallis. 

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Snowfall                                  Precip

2022-23: 95.0"                      2022-23: 17.39"

2021-22: 52.6"                    2021-22: 91.46" 

2020-21: 12.0"                    2020-21: 71.59"

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 58.54"

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"                  2013-14: 62.30
2012-13: 16.75"                 2012-13: 78.45  

2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 
Fighting the good fight against weather evil.

 

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Amazing stats there. I remember fall of 2000 well. Was a chilly football season and once we got into November things got really cold. Had a quarterfinal game down in Douglas County the week before Thanksgiving where the game time temp at 1pm was only about 40 degrees and the field was a mudpit thawing from the hard freeze that morning. One of the most iconic Civil War football games was played that day. Oregon would have gone to the Rose Bowl had they won, but the Beavers knocked them off and earned a Fiesta Bowl berth. Was a 48/20 day in Corvallis. 

 

2000-01 was one winter that kind of blindsided me. The weak Nina and the chilly start had me thinking things would be pretty D**n good for the region, especially since we were "owed one" after the previous winter's failure. Just goes to show nature will do whatever it wants.

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2000-01 was one winter that kind of blindsided me. The weak Nina and the chilly start had me thinking things would be pretty d**n good for the region, especially since we were "owed one" after the previous winter's failure. Just goes to show nature will do whatever it wants.

 

That whole stretch from 1996-2003 here was absolute bush league.

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

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GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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EUG records only go back to 1939. Where are the records from before that?

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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Downtown had a station with records beginning in 1892. Before that there are spotty records from the city.

 

Do you have a link to those charts?

Springfield, Oregon regular season 2023-24 Stats:

  • Coldest high: 25F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Coldest low: 20F (Jan 14, 2024)
  • Days with below freezing temps: 24 (Most recent: Mar 8, 2024)
  • Days with sub-40F highs: 4 (Most recent: Jan 16, 2024)
  • Total snowfall: 0.0"
  • Total ice: 2.25”
  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021 (1.9")
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 15, 2024 (27F)
  • Last White Christmas: 1990
  • Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

Personal Stats:

  • Last accumulating snowfall on roads: Dec 27, 2021
  • Last sub-freezing high: Jan 16, 2024 (32F)
  • Last White Christmas: 2008
  • Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 42.0"
  • Sub-freezing highs since joining TheWeatherForums: 4

 

Venmo

GoFundMe "College Basketball vs Epilepsy": gf.me/u/zk3pj2

My Twitter @CBBjerseys4hope

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