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Fall and Winter 2019-20 Predictions and Discussion

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#101
BLI snowman

Posted 02 September 2019 - 09:00 PM

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If I recall the blob was on steroids around this time in 2016, and as you may remember the following winter turned out alright. 

 

Really underrated winter. No one ever brings up the fact that it was quite decent.


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#102
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 September 2019 - 09:10 PM

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Wow that actually sounds horrible. Sure, 99-05 was pretty bad for the PNW sans 03-04, but at that rate you might as well be living in San Francisco.

2001-02 had a lot of chilly weather close by but it had a tough time dropping south of the border until March, but by then it is getting too late for a lot of the lowlands. Shawnigan Lake had 56” of snow that winter.

#103
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 02 September 2019 - 09:10 PM

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Dorian is still spinning around like a top heading absolutely nowhere. The eye should be a pretty safe place for a while.



#104
Omegaraptor

Posted 02 September 2019 - 09:31 PM

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If I recall the blob was on steroids around this time in 2016, and as you may remember the following winter turned out alright.


Indeed. And 14-15 and 15-16 were mainly influenced by the meganiño, not the blob.
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No rain here until Hour 258.

#105
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 September 2019 - 10:28 PM

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96/97 through 2002/03 were pretty horrible in the Central Willamette Valley too. 

 

Biggest snow event during that time was probably the January 2002 event which was 2-3" most spots, though some of the outlying places up around 500' had 4-6" with that. We missed out on the big January 1998 snow that hit Portland. 

 

Highlight of that period was probably the Dec 1998 arctic blast. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#106
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 02 September 2019 - 10:32 PM

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I was just thinking, Saturday marked 8 years living here and we've only had one major arctic outbreak during that time. 

 

Though February 2014 and January 2017 were nice modified events. Even though 850mb temps only bottomed out around -9/-10C with those two events we did manage to score a 23/13 day in February 2014, and a 25/13 day in January 2017. 


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Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#107
ShawniganLake

Posted 02 September 2019 - 11:00 PM

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I was just thinking, Saturday marked 8 years living here and we've only had one major arctic outbreak during that time.

Though February 2014 and January 2017 were nice modified events. Even though 850mb temps only bottomed out around -9/-10C with those two events we did manage to score a 23/13 day in February 2014, and a 25/13 day in January 2017.

Yea, the Arctic air intrusions have generally been pretty tame over the last decade. Shawnigan Lake averaged 1 low of 14F or lower per year during the 1981-2010 period. We haven’t dropped below 15F since December of 2008. Despite that we have seen some very nice snow events.

#108
Front Ranger

Posted 03 September 2019 - 05:27 AM

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Yea, the Arctic air intrusions have generally been pretty tame over the last decade. Shawnigan Lake averaged 1 low of 14F or lower per year during the 1981-2010 period. We haven’t dropped below 15F since December of 2008. Despite that we have seen some very nice snow events.


That's pretty crazy, considering all the places further south that got colder than that in Dec 2009, Nov 2010, Feb 2011, and Dec 2013.

Low. Solar.


#109
ShawniganLake

Posted 03 September 2019 - 06:43 AM

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That's pretty crazy, considering all the places further south that got colder than that in Dec 2009, Nov 2010, Feb 2011, and Dec 2013.

Oops. Just realized I missed the 13F in Feb 2011.

#110
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 03 September 2019 - 08:10 AM

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January 2017 saw some pretty cold lows in the Willamette Valley with that cold shot centered around the 5th. And then with the snow cover PDX hit 11 about a week later. Lows for the month.

 

PDX: 11

EUG: 13

SLE:  14

 

Coldest January lows at these locations in several decades.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#111
Omegaraptor

Posted 03 September 2019 - 08:16 AM

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January 2017 saw some pretty cold lows in the Willamette Valley with that cold shot centered around the 5th. And then with the snow cover PDX hit 11 about a week later. Lows for the month.
 
PDX: 11
EUG: 13
SLE:  14
 
Coldest January lows at these locations in several decades.


You forgot the 3°F at HIO. Easily the most impressive reading that month and proof that the Portland metro can still manage subzero outside of the UHI with the right setup.
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No rain here until Hour 258.

#112
Omegaraptor

Posted 04 September 2019 - 04:36 PM

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So when was the region's last legitimately chilly fall (not talking just slightly below average)? 2007 maybe?


No rain here until Hour 258.

#113
BLI snowman

Posted 04 September 2019 - 07:54 PM

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So when was the region's last legitimately chilly fall (not talking just slightly below average)? 2007 maybe?

 

2007, or 2000 depending on what you mean by "legitimate".

 

For WA/OR/ID in meteorological fall, 2007 was 0.3F below the 20th century average. 2000 was 1.8F below it.

 

They are the only two cooler than average falls the region has seen since 1996.


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#114
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 05 September 2019 - 08:12 AM

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2007, or 2000 depending on what you mean by "legitimate".

 

For WA/OR/ID in meteorological fall, 2007 was 0.3F below the 20th century average. 2000 was 1.8F below it.

 

They are the only two cooler than average falls the region has seen since 1996.

 

Amazing stats there. I remember fall of 2000 well. Was a chilly football season and once we got into November things got really cold. Had a quarterfinal game down in Douglas County the week before Thanksgiving where the game time temp at 1pm was only about 40 degrees and the field was a mudpit thawing from the hard freeze that morning. One of the most iconic Civil War football games was played that day. Oregon would have gone to the Rose Bowl had they won, but the Beavers knocked them off and earned a Fiesta Bowl berth. Was a 48/20 day in Corvallis. 


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Snowfall                                  Precip

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#115
BLI snowman

Posted 05 September 2019 - 10:02 AM

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Amazing stats there. I remember fall of 2000 well. Was a chilly football season and once we got into November things got really cold. Had a quarterfinal game down in Douglas County the week before Thanksgiving where the game time temp at 1pm was only about 40 degrees and the field was a mudpit thawing from the hard freeze that morning. One of the most iconic Civil War football games was played that day. Oregon would have gone to the Rose Bowl had they won, but the Beavers knocked them off and earned a Fiesta Bowl berth. Was a 48/20 day in Corvallis. 

 

2000-01 was one winter that kind of blindsided me. The weak Nina and the chilly start had me thinking things would be pretty d**n good for the region, especially since we were "owed one" after the previous winter's failure. Just goes to show nature will do whatever it wants.


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#116
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 05 September 2019 - 03:10 PM

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2000-01 was one winter that kind of blindsided me. The weak Nina and the chilly start had me thinking things would be pretty d**n good for the region, especially since we were "owed one" after the previous winter's failure. Just goes to show nature will do whatever it wants.

 

That whole stretch from 1996-2003 here was absolute bush league.


Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 19 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 27 (Most recent: Dec 4)
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#117
BLI snowman

Posted 05 September 2019 - 03:35 PM

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That whole stretch from 1996-2003 here was absolute bush league.

 

1937 to 1948 was pretty awful too, especially for Eugene. Only one >2" snow event in 11 years there.



#118
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 05 September 2019 - 06:00 PM

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EUG records only go back to 1939. Where are the records from before that?


Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 19 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 27 (Most recent: Dec 4)
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#119
BLI snowman

Posted 05 September 2019 - 06:12 PM

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EUG records only go back to 1939. Where are the records from before that?

 

Downtown had a station with records beginning in 1892. Before that there are spotty records from the city.



#120
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 06 September 2019 - 08:35 AM

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Downtown had a station with records beginning in 1892. Before that there are spotty records from the city.

 

Do you have a link to those charts?


Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 19 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 27 (Most recent: Dec 4)
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#121
BLI snowman

Posted 06 September 2019 - 02:06 PM

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Do you have a link to those charts?

 

https://wrcc.dri.edu...iMAIN.pl?or2706



#122
snow_wizard

Posted 07 September 2019 - 09:56 AM

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1937 to 1948 was pretty awful too, especially for Eugene. Only one >2" snow event in 11 years there.

 

And after that all hell broke loose.  Interesting how streaky things can be.  We are currently in a pretty favorable run actually.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

 


#123
Phil

Posted 07 September 2019 - 04:07 PM

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Note the consistent westerlies beginning to establish over the warm pool, and the hefty WWB upcoming.

Frankly put, this is more of a pre-niño cell than anything else, given the where we with the OKW cycle.

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

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#124
Jesse

Posted 07 September 2019 - 04:12 PM

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Mega ridge incoming? ^

#125
Phil

Posted 07 September 2019 - 04:18 PM

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Mega ridge incoming? ^


I’m sure at some point in the future, on some particular week, in some particular season, in some particular year, there will indeed be a mega-ridge.

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#126
Jesse

Posted 07 September 2019 - 04:41 PM

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I’m sure at some point in the future, on some particular week, in some particular season, in some particular year, there will indeed be a mega-ridge.


I guess we’ll never know, since you’re constantly throwing out all this gobbledygook but you never seem to find it prudent to mention how it might affect us. Despite this being a western weather forum. ;)
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#127
Phil

Posted 07 September 2019 - 04:52 PM

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I guess we’ll never know, since you’re constantly throwing out all this gobbledygook but you never seem to find it prudent to mention how it might affect us. Despite this being a western weather forum. ;)


No single variable is solely responsible for another single variable in climate, and extrapolating any connection forward in time (especially when said connection involves entities operating on different frequencies like a ridge & stagnant tropical forcing) is a fools errand.

All I said was that +ENSO (whether warm neutral or El Niño) appears to be favored with time. Don’t read too heavily into it. ;)

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#128
GHweatherChris

Posted 07 September 2019 - 04:58 PM

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I guess we’ll never know, since you’re constantly throwing out all this gobbledygook but you never seem to find it prudent to mention how it might affect us. Despite this being a western weather forum. ;)


Great point.

#129
Phil

Posted 07 September 2019 - 05:15 PM

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Great point.


It’s not my fault your reading comprehension skills are analogous to those of a 5th grader. Work through it.

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#130
Jesse

Posted 07 September 2019 - 05:35 PM

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No single variable is solely responsible for another single variable in climate, and extrapolating any connection forward in time (especially when said connection involves entities operating on different frequencies like a ridge & stagnant tropical forcing) is a fools errand.

All I said was that +ENSO (whether warm neutral or El Niño) appears to be favored with time. Don’t read too heavily into it. ;)


Yeah, but you barely even said that. Sure some people here might have low reading comprehension skills or whatever. But I think your communication skills could also use some work. I don’t consider myself to be scientifically illiterate by any stretch, but I still find many of your posts to be extremely hard to follow. Especially when it comes to getting any sort of meaningful “big picture” message out of them. It is what it is.

#131
snow_wizard

Posted 07 September 2019 - 05:35 PM

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Note the consistent westerlies beginning to establish over the warm pool, and the hefty WWB upcoming.

Frankly put, this is more of a pre-niño cell than anything else, given the where we with the OKW cycle.

u.anom.30.5S-5N.gif

 

ENSO is royally messed up this year.  Nino 1-2, 3, and 3.4 have all gone negative in spite of consistent negative SOI.  My theory is the warmth in the Western Pacific has simply been depleted by the mega Nino a few years ago and the one last winter.  Neutral ENSO is the most likely outcome this winter.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 0.0"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 0

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 23

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 1

 

 


#132
GHweatherChris

Posted 07 September 2019 - 06:32 PM

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It’s not my fault your reading comprehension skills are analogous to those of a 5th grader. Work through it.


Lol, you so funny filip
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#133
GHweatherChris

Posted 07 September 2019 - 06:32 PM

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It has zero to do with reading comprehension skills, just sayin...

#134
Phil

Posted 07 September 2019 - 06:45 PM

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Yeah, but you barely even said that. Sure some people here might have low reading comprehension skills or whatever. But I think your communication skills could also use some work. I don’t consider myself to be scientifically illiterate by any stretch, but I still find many of your posts to be extremely hard to follow. Especially when it comes to getting any sort of meaningful “big picture” message out of them. It is what it is.


Fair enough.

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#135
GHweatherChris

Posted 07 September 2019 - 06:57 PM

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Richard was far easier to follow along with.
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#136
Phil

Posted 07 September 2019 - 06:59 PM

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ENSO is royally messed up this year. Nino 1-2, 3, and 3.4 have all gone negative in spite of consistent negative SOI. My theory is the warmth in the Western Pacific has simply been depleted by the mega Nino a few years ago and the one last winter. Neutral ENSO is the most likely outcome this winter.


Keep in mind there is an area of very warm subsurface water propagating towards the warm pool/domain of KW inception in the WPAC. So you have to extrapolate this forward knowing there are already warm SSTs present across the WPAC along with a +IOD/+SIOD and +PMM, all of which, together, favors WPAC/dateline convection and future WWB activity.

So it’s hard to deny (IMO) that a trend towards +ENSO is heavily favored on the spectrum of probabilities.

movie.h300.gif

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#137
Phil

Posted 07 September 2019 - 07:10 PM

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But the Indo-Pacific (~120E) waters certainly have been “drained” of OHC over the last decade, where most years have below average SSTs/OHC there. FWIW, this is a signal that also shows up in the paleo data preceding every NH cold event since deglaciation, usually by a few decades. Pretty much a mandatory precursor signal.

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#138
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 07 September 2019 - 08:00 PM

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In 2015, Hurricane Linda's remnant low hit Southern California bringing about 2 in a half inches of rain. There were no strong winds however. Even with all the rain temperatures were still almost 80 degrees. 



#139
OKwx2k4

Posted 09 September 2019 - 09:12 AM

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Keep in mind there is an area of very warm subsurface water propagating towards the warm pool/domain of KW inception in the WPAC. So you have to extrapolate this forward knowing there are already warm SSTs present across the WPAC along with a +IOD/+SIOD and +PMM, all of which, together, favors WPAC/dateline convection and future WWB activity.

So it’s hard to deny (IMO) that a trend towards +ENSO is heavily favored on the spectrum of probabilities.

movie.h300.gif


Just shoot me already. Please. :lol:
All I read was Niño with a raging warm N.Pac. Yep, shoot me.

#140
Phil

Posted 09 September 2019 - 10:19 AM

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Just shoot me already. Please. :lol:
All I read was Niño with a raging warm N.Pac. Yep, shoot me.


Well I wouldn’t say niño yet (for this winter). But I suppose a weak west based/modoki type niño is a possibility.

Key is that warm subsurface waters will (probably) be building in the WPAC in the O/N/D period..and since we didn’t progress into a mod/strong niño this year, it will probably happen next year (Solar driven IPWP cycle tied to ENSO/MM tendencies).

Which would make 2021/22 the start of the next multiyear La Niña/-PDO/-PMM cycle.

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#141
OKwx2k4

Posted 09 September 2019 - 03:40 PM

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Well I wouldn’t say niño yet (for this winter). But I suppose a weak west based/modoki type niño is a possibility.

Key is that warm subsurface waters will (probably) be building in the WPAC in the O/N/D period..and since we didn’t progress into a mod/strong niño this year, it will probably happen next year (Solar driven IPWP cycle tied to ENSO/MM tendencies).

Which would make 2021/22 the start of the next multiyear La Niña/-PDO/-PMM cycle.

Well, even without qualifying as a full Niño or Niña, the driver there is contrast. Or as its calculated, the Modoki scale, I guess. Hence likely the cause for the negative SOI. The temp profile (contrast between 1.2 and 3 3.4 and 4) shows like a too far west-based Niño unless that eastern side warms and mellows the contrast down a tad.

The waters warming so rapidly southwest of Mexico are an indicator, also, that it's going to be hard to keep a weak-mod Niño off the table for long.

In blunt English, it looks pretty sh!tty for anyone but the NE, Great Lakes and N. Central states unless we get the west coast ridge to stand up and teleconnect. If that happens, though, the west coast gets screwed.
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#142
Omegaraptor

Posted 09 September 2019 - 05:08 PM

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Well I wouldn’t say niño yet (for this winter). But I suppose a weak west based/modoki type niño is a possibility.

Key is that warm subsurface waters will (probably) be building in the WPAC in the O/N/D period..and since we didn’t progress into a mod/strong niño this year, it will probably happen next year (Solar driven IPWP cycle tied to ENSO/MM tendencies).

Which would make 2021/22 the start of the next multiyear La Niña/-PDO/-PMM cycle.

 

So two more years of watching CA get record precipitation while we're lucky to make average precipitation?


No rain here until Hour 258.

#143
Phil

Posted 09 September 2019 - 06:47 PM

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So two more years of watching CA get record precipitation while we're lucky to make average precipitation?


Not necessarily. But I am anticipating a drier than average winter out there this go around (and I could be wrong..it’s early enough that there’s still wiggle room on this).

But if you get a lot of cold/snow this winter, who cares about getting a bunch of rain along with it? Would be pointless, right?
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#144
Phil

Posted 09 September 2019 - 06:50 PM

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Well, even without qualifying as a full Niño or Niña, the driver there is contrast. Or as its calculated, the Modoki scale, I guess. Hence likely the cause for the negative SOI. The temp profile (contrast between 1.2 and 3 3.4 and 4) shows like a too far west-based Niño unless that eastern side warms and mellows the contrast down a tad.

The waters warming so rapidly southwest of Mexico are an indicator, also, that it's going to be hard to keep a weak-mod Niño off the table for long.

In blunt English, it looks pretty sh!tty for anyone but the NE, Great Lakes and N. Central states unless we get the west coast ridge to stand up and teleconnect. If that happens, though, the west coast gets screwed.


Good post. Yeah the E-W temperature gradient within/across the tropical Pacific is very important in setting up the Walker/Hadley system there.
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#145
Jesse

Posted 09 September 2019 - 07:08 PM

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Not necessarily. But I am anticipating a drier than average winter out there this go around (and I could be wrong..it’s early enough that there’s still wiggle room on this).

But if you get a lot of cold/snow this winter, who cares about getting a bunch of rain along with it? Would be pointless, right?


Many of us think rainy storms are fun too, Tim. Plus a good valley rain/mountain snow pattern at times is beneficial for a lot of reasons.

#146
Mr Marine Layer

Posted 09 September 2019 - 07:08 PM

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Dorian dropped the sea surface temperatures by quite a bit.

 

anoma.9.9.2019.gif


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#147
Phil

Posted 09 September 2019 - 09:19 PM

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Many of us think rainy storms are fun too, Tim.


In the middle of winter? Blah, that’s the worst possible time for cold rain. Just wasting snowfall climo time.

Cold rain is meant for autumn and spring (and summer if you’re lucky).

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#148
Jesse

Posted 09 September 2019 - 09:48 PM

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In the middle of winter? Blah, that’s the worst possible time for cold rain. Just wasting snowfall climo time.

Cold rain is meant for autumn and spring (and summer if you’re lucky).

 

Ah, I get it. This isn't a real discussion.



#149
Phil

Posted 09 September 2019 - 09:58 PM

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Ah, I get it. This isn't a real discussion.


It’s half real. I do hate 33*F rain with a passion (in winter) because it could be snow. I’d prefer 50*F rain. I think.

On a serious note, anyone who roots for rain over snow needs to be thrown in a mental institution. The end.
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#150
Jesse

Posted 09 September 2019 - 10:06 PM

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It’s half real. I do hate 33*F rain with a passion (in winter) because it could be snow. I’d prefer 50*F rain. I think.

On a serious note, anyone who roots for rain over snow needs to be thrown in a mental institution. The end.


Well it wouldn’t be very reasonable to expect nothing but snow here all winter. I can assure you that all of our coldest and snowiest winters on record had lots of cold rain as well. And I’m ok with that, because its part of the winter package around here, even during the greats. Plus it’s fun to be able to visit feet of powder just an hour away in the mountains even when there’s nothing in the lowlands.

I don’t think anyone said they would prefer rain to snow when given the choice, though.
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