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July 2019 Observations and Discussion

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#1
Tom

Posted 29 June 2019 - 03:49 AM

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Folks, we are at the midpoint of the year which has produced epic precip and weather extremes across the heartland and our Sub.  Will this pattern continue?  What does nature have in store for the month of July??  I can guarantee you one thing, it won't be a boring month for the majority of us.  As we enjoy the bliss of Summer, which has been hibernating up until now for many of us across the northern Sub, the return of an overall cooler/wetter pattern is shaping up late in the 1st week of the month.  How wet will it get and will there be abnormal severe wx???

 

Let's discuss....

 

 

Firstly, it's becoming very evident that the models have been busting on high lat blocking in regions where we know the LRC has shown blocking in previous cycles.  Not only that, but it is my opinion that we are reaching a point in the solar cycle that we should expect to see high lat blocking for the remainder of this year into the following year.  With that being said, if you are seeking cool weather in the Plains, your in luck, bc the pattern is going to switch back to a cooler one and likely remain that way for the remainder of this month once we get past the 4th of July holiday.

 

The overall northern hemispheric pattern consists of an amplification of the N PAC which shows a deep negative/trough south of the Aleutians, in turn pumps a massive Alaskan Ridge, which creates a downstream trough into North America.  It has been my long standing opinion that the west will fry next month and the anti cyclone will develop across the west/SW this month leaving the majority of us in a relatively comfortable month in terms of temps.

 

glbz700MonInd1.gif

 

 

What is on the agenda in terms of the LRC???  I'm expecting an active 2-3 weeks starting late next weekend that should last through most of the month, esp across the heartland, as I believe the pattern gets a bit suppressed later in the month which will probably dry things out a bit across the Upper MW/GL's and maybe into parts of the eastern MW region.  The atmosphere is going to flash some very interesting weather across our continent this month and I'm looking forward to witnessing it with you.

 

 


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#2
westMJim

Posted 29 June 2019 - 08:55 AM

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Here are some averages and past history for the month of July. At Grand Rapids, MI.

July of course is generally (but not always) the warmest month of the year here at Grand Rapids. In 1971, 2009 and 2014 June was warmer then July and in 1900, 1937, 1974 and 1959 August was warmer then July. During the month the average High and Low are very stable starting out at 83/61 on the 1st 83/62 on the 15th and by the 31st the average H/L is 82/62. Most days even in July are on the comfortable level (compared to most of the United States) with most days having a DP of less than 65% about 30% of the days have a DP of over 65 and only 7% have days with a DP of 70 or better. The hottest day was 108 on July 13, 1936 and the coldest low was a cold 41 on July 6th 1983 The coldest mean was a cool 67.1° in 2009 with 67.2 coming in 2nd in 1992 the 3rd coldest July was 68.4 in 2014. Odd that the top 3 coldest July’s happened more recently. The warmest July on record was 79.7 in 1921 with 79.2 in 2012 coming in in 2nd place and 77.0 in 2014 is in 6th place.  The mean number of days with highs of 80 or better is 22 and has ranged from 31 in 1955 to just 10 in 1992 (2009 is has the 2nd lowest with 11 and 2014 had just 13) On the warm side 4 Julys had 30 days of 80 or better that last time was in 2012. As for the number of hot days the mean number days in July with 90 or better is just 5 there have been 11 Julys where the temperature did not reach 90 here in Grand Rapids 18 is the most and that has happened 3 time with the last being 2012. As for 100° they are rare here in GR and there have only been 11 Julys were it has gotten that hot. The most was in 1936 with 6. 1934 and 1916 had 4. 2012, 1911, 1897 and 1894 had 2.


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#3
Andie

Posted 29 June 2019 - 10:04 AM

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94* with a High forecast for 97*. We'll hit it with ease with 3 hours of heating to go.
Dewpoint 74%

A 40% chance of rain with rain moving east to west which is unusual. I hope it stalls or dissipates.
Enough already. We need to dry out.
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#4
Tom

Posted 01 July 2019 - 02:30 AM

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Welcome to July!  Yesterday's MCS's certainly left a mark across the Upper MW/MW as a classic "Ring of Fire" pattern became pretty evident and this map illustrates the storms path below...numerous storm reports from primarily wind/hail are shown in the report below.

 

 

 

D-YWmWaXUAApQJy.jpg

 

 

 

 

Meanwhile, in Guadalajara, MX an epic hailstorm brought the city to a standstill...

 

https://pbs.twimg.co...mGjeyyCb9w.jpg 

 

 

 

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#5
St Paul Storm

Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:08 AM

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We had 2 severe thunderstorm watches yesterday, one in the morning and one issued around 11pm last night. Can’t recall the last time that happened. The storms after midnight brought almost continuous lightning for about 3 hours. Pouring buckets this morning. MPX talking another 1-2” possible with another MCS tonight.

One thing is for sure. I have never seen the yard so green and lush to start July.
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#6
East Dubzz

Posted 01 July 2019 - 07:54 AM

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Picked up another 0.94” this morning. Exactly 2” between yesterday and today.
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2019 Statistics (Starting 3/23/19)

Total rainfall: 18.35"

July rainfall total: 4.15"

Largest 24-hour rainfall: 1.60" (7/18)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 2


#7
Tom

Posted 01 July 2019 - 08:26 AM

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*
POPULAR

Here's another video of the epic hailstorm that hit Guadalajara.... 

 

https://www.rts.ch/i...au-mexique.html


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#8
Niko

Posted 01 July 2019 - 09:01 AM

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Gorgeous outside currently w temp at 82F and going for 90F w higher humidity. Hopefully, we get some pm storms.



#9
Niko

Posted 01 July 2019 - 09:02 AM

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Here's another video of the epic hailstorm that hit Guadalajara.... 

 

https://www.rts.ch/i...au-mexique.html

Crazy


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#10
Niko

Posted 01 July 2019 - 09:04 AM

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94* with a High forecast for 97*. We'll hit it with ease with 3 hours of heating to go.
Dewpoint 74%

A 40% chance of rain with rain moving east to west which is unusual. I hope it stalls or dissipates.
Enough already. We need to dry out.

Here in SEMI, we could use a few storms just to dampen the ground a bit. Water is needed at times, even though, plenty of rainfall has fallen this past Spring.


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#11
St Paul Storm

Posted 01 July 2019 - 10:41 AM

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Flash flood watch hoisted for south MSP metro on south. Only about 2-3 counties wide. 1-3” expected with up to 5” possible. You can cut the humidity with a knife. It’s only in the mid 70s but it’s very uncomfortable out there.

#12
Tom

Posted 01 July 2019 - 11:42 AM

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I fired up an Autumn Discussion thread...

 

http://theweatherfor...umn-discussion/


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#13
Hawkeye

Posted 01 July 2019 - 12:02 PM

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Thin/medium clouds have held on around here for much of the day, keeping the temp a bit lower than it could have been.  The dewpoint is also not as high.


season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#14
Niko

Posted 01 July 2019 - 01:03 PM

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Skies have turned mostly cloudy w temps in the 80s. Sprinklers ran literally all day today. Grass needed a lot of water.

 

So, the grill is on y'all. Chicken kabob along w corn on the cob, salad, french fries (baked that is) ,White wine and or cold water and finally, desert to follow. :D


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#15
jaster220

Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:04 PM

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Ahhhhh....summer!  :)


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#16
jaster220

Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:22 PM

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Here's another video of the epic hailstorm that hit Guadalajara.... 

 

https://www.rts.ch/i...au-mexique.html

 

 

Crazy

 

Was it a "flow" off of a nearby hillside or something? Looks to be funneled down that narrow street along the main highway. Nevertheless, extremely wild for way down yonder in middle of the hot season! 


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#17
OKwx2k4

Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:42 PM

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Welcome to July! Yesterday's MCS's certainly left a mark across the Upper MW/MW as a classic "Ring of Fire" pattern became pretty evident and this map illustrates the storms path below...numerous storm reports from primarily wind/hail are shown in the report below.



D-YWmWaXUAApQJy.jpg




Meanwhile, in Guadalajara, MX an epic hailstorm brought the city to a standstill...

https://pbs.twimg.co...mGjeyyCb9w.jpg


Tom, I guess when you said back in spring that we'd see a "ring of fire", you were spot on perfect. You can't picture it better than that.

That's the "classic summer" June/July ridge.

I know where that omega block can go later and I hope it does. When it gets there, rock n roll and let the games begin.
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#18
Tom

Posted 01 July 2019 - 05:09 PM

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Was it a "flow" off of a nearby hillside or something? Looks to be funneled down that narrow street along the main highway. Nevertheless, extremely wild for way down yonder in middle of the hot season!


I saw other vids on the net and on TV showing “rivers” of hail stones in feet of water flowing down the streets. So Yes, I think a lot of this hail came from flooding on the streets and carried the hail down into these poor neighborhoods.
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#19
OKwx2k4

Posted 01 July 2019 - 06:28 PM

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I am starting to see a fair bit of hope for dryer weather and lake levels over my region. As some northern branch dominance starts to show up for a bit this month, the Pacific jet that has been raiding the flooding risks looks to weaken. During this time frame a western ridge looks to stack up.

By mid-month, a lot of the nation will be cool and dry with the exception of the north central plains states. This isn't good. 4 more inches of rain over the next 16 days is just another sucker punch and they need the dry, just not the cool.

The other exception being the afore mentioned west coast states under the first big time summer ridge of the year.

The "year with no summer" and "goldilocks year" will resume after the 5th or 6th for me. Impressive.
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#20
Tom

Posted 02 July 2019 - 02:30 AM

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It's the warmest and muggiest morning of the season 77/71F with a slight SW breeze...feels like the tropics out there today.  TBH, I've been yearning for a day like today and I'm also looking forward to seeing some afternoon/evening storms.  I think we've only topped 90F only 2x since this heat wave began and today looks like it will be the 3rd, but no official "heat wave" in the books as you need three 90's in a row which obviously did not happen.  Nonetheless, the active/warm/humid week shall continue through the holiday and then finally some relief is in sight!



#21
Tom

Posted 02 July 2019 - 02:59 AM

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I am starting to see a fair bit of hope for dryer weather and lake levels over my region. As some northern branch dominance starts to show up for a bit this month, the Pacific jet that has been raiding the flooding risks looks to weaken. During this time frame a western ridge looks to stack up.

By mid-month, a lot of the nation will be cool and dry with the exception of the north central plains states. This isn't good. 4 more inches of rain over the next 16 days is just another sucker punch and they need the dry, just not the cool.

The other exception being the afore mentioned west coast states under the first big time summer ridge of the year.

The "year with no summer" and "goldilocks year" will resume after the 5th or 6th for me. Impressive.

 

 

00z EPS...the west is gonna "fry" while we tune back into our regularly scheduled program of the summer season...

 

D-dxcBsX4AYsIv-.png



#22
Tom

Posted 02 July 2019 - 03:34 AM

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After studying the pattern on what to expect over the next couple weeks, the anticipated NW Flow pattern is looking to lock in for a while, enhanced by tremendous high lat blocking throughout the extended.  Boy, the models have been reluctant to keep any blocking in the extended only to bring it back, esp the Greenland Block.  Not only that, but what I believe will become a bigger player for the remainder of this month and the 2nd half of summer, is the -EPO which fires up the west coast ridge.

 

4indices.png

 

 

This is when the LRC becomes a bit shaky as the jet slowly begins to wane and reaches its lowest strength towards the end of the month into August.  Although, I will argue that this year the jet will be stronger than usual due to the overall pattern and anomalous blocking which will aid in it's strength.  There will be enough cold air present coming out of Canada clashing with summer time warmth to cause some severe wx outbreaks over the coming couple weeks across the heartland.  Things are going to get a bit busy around here after the holiday week.

 

Looking out towards the Day 10-15 period, if everything lines up the way I think it will, ya'll have heard me say that we will prob see a visitation from the Summer Vortex this month across the north.  Well, I'm beginning to see the potential between 7/11-7/15, in fact, this will be the period in which the LRC produced the Hudson Bay vortex and ushered in rotating lobes with several shots of cold during previous LRC cycles.  To add to this, the configuration of where the ridges will be placed both off the west coast and in the Arctic regions, this should create a very favorable pattern of some penetrating troughs mid month.  I could already envision some very chilly nights across the northern Sub and the smell of fires burning in the neighborhood....ahhhh!  #refreshing


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#23
Niko

Posted 02 July 2019 - 05:01 AM

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Its muggy outside w dews in the low 70s and a temp of 75F, along w hazy sun. Yup, its July! Hopefully, some pm storms will target SEMI as a stationary front lifts further north into my area today.



#24
Tom

Posted 02 July 2019 - 06:22 AM

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Looks like IA and N IL are sitting in a good position for some active weather today...

 

 

 

nam3km_mslp_pcpn_frzn_ncus_14.png


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#25
OKwx2k4

Posted 02 July 2019 - 06:41 AM

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After studying the pattern on what to expect over the next couple weeks, the anticipated NW Flow pattern is looking to lock in for a while, enhanced by tremendous high lat blocking throughout the extended. Boy, the models have been reluctant to keep any blocking in the extended only to bring it back, esp the Greenland Block. Not only that, but what I believe will become a bigger player for the remainder of this month and the 2nd half of summer, is the -EPO which fires up the west coast ridge.

4indices.png


This is when the LRC becomes a bit shaky as the jet slowly begins to wane and reaches its lowest strength towards the end of the month into August. Although, I will argue that this year the jet will be stronger than usual due to the overall pattern and anomalous blocking which will aid in it's strength. There will be enough cold air present coming out of Canada clashing with summer time warmth to cause some severe wx outbreaks over the coming couple weeks across the heartland. Things are going to get a bit busy around here after the holiday week.

Looking out towards the Day 10-15 period, if everything lines up the way I think it will, ya'll have heard me say that we will prob see a visitation from the Summer Vortex this month across the north. Well, I'm beginning to see the potential between 7/11-7/15, in fact, this will be the period in which the LRC produced the Hudson Bay vortex and ushered in rotating lobes with several shots of cold during previous LRC cycles. To add to this, the configuration of where the ridges will be placed both off the west coast and in the Arctic regions, this should create a very favorable pattern of some penetrating troughs mid month. I could already envision some very chilly nights across the northern Sub and the smell of fires burning in the neighborhood....ahhhh! #refreshing


I've already got my trusty bonfire wood stacked up for the latter part of this month. Cool, dry 65 degree nights in July are something worth remembering. :) Going to be a great month.
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#26
westMJim

Posted 02 July 2019 - 07:02 AM

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There has been a reported DP reading of 77° today at Marshall, Michigan now that is very high for Michigan and in fact it is among the highest so far today in the US. Today there have been several locations in Florida and Texas with readings of 79 (Perry and Daytona Beach) with the highest today anywhere in the us being 81° in Brownsville Texas.  

I thought Jaster would bring this up LOL


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#27
Tom

Posted 02 July 2019 - 07:36 AM

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I've already got my trusty bonfire wood stacked up for the latter part of this month. Cool, dry 65 degree nights in July are something worth remembering. :) Going to be a great month.


I think it’s safe to say, the worst of this summers heat is hitting now. Better load up many more chords of wood for the Autumn season!

#28
Hawkeye

Posted 02 July 2019 - 08:05 AM

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Was it a "flow" off of a nearby hillside or something? Looks to be funneled down that narrow street along the main highway. Nevertheless, extremely wild for way down yonder in middle of the hot season! 

 

Yep.  This was bad hail, but the images being passed around the internet are misleading.  The "epic hail" is due to flash flooding that washed all the hail onto one street.


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season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#29
OKwx2k4

Posted 02 July 2019 - 09:09 AM

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I think it’s safe to say, the worst of this summers heat is hitting now. Better load up many more chords of wood for the Autumn season!


Yep. I'm really seeing a lot of writing on the wall for this one.

2 weeks tops for any real heat down here. Maybe 3 and another small 2 week period later on of high heat for our friends up in the higher latitudes of the plains.

This is one of the trickiest weather pattern/transitions to really describe perfectly because it is essentially 1.5 months early in my book and almost 3 months earlier that what we are used to experiencing.

The correlations I'm having to check right now are from the wrong seasons. That's a BIG clue.

#30
CentralNebWeather

Posted 02 July 2019 - 09:43 AM

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“Only” 86 degrees but a dew in the low 70’s and a calm wind make it feel tropical. I mowed the yard this morning and was drenched in sweat. Hopefully we can get some storms today as all the action the last 2 days has stayed west and north. Not far from me they had 2” or more of rain last night, as we had maybe 10 drops. With no rain for a week, and hot and windy weather during that time, things have dried out some.

#31
Stacsh

Posted 02 July 2019 - 10:38 AM

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Bring on the Summer "Vortex"  brrr 80 degrees and no humidity!!  Currently loving 87 degrees with Feels like temp of 96.  Dewy at 72.  


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#32
Tom

Posted 02 July 2019 - 11:17 AM

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Bring on the Summer "Vortex" brrr 80 degrees and no humidity!! Currently loving 87 degrees with Feels like temp of 96. Dewy at 72.


Check back in on the following weekend...
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#33
Stacsh

Posted 02 July 2019 - 11:25 AM

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Check back in on the following weekend...

 

The trend is there for a couple days of cooler weather for sure.  Best time of year for it.  


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#34
Tom

Posted 02 July 2019 - 11:35 AM

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The trend is there for a couple days of cooler weather for sure. Best time of year for it.


Agree, and I also find it fascinating that it's lining up with the pattern we’ve seen since October. It’ll feel refreshing with low DP’s.

#35
CentralNebWeather

Posted 02 July 2019 - 12:27 PM

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We have a higher dew here, 73, than Orlando Florida, 68. It is stifling outside with a calm wind.
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#36
Sparky

Posted 02 July 2019 - 01:51 PM

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Is a training line of convection setting up somewhere along hwy 30? The plants are wilting in the heat of the day. I sure am hoping for some heavy rain after a somewhat drier than normal June!

I thought we’re going to have a cooler summer, but June ended up near normal and July is starting off where June left off...extremely warm and tropical. This is hard on my livestock. Looking forward to a cooler regime starting next wk end !
(‘18 - ‘19 season snowfall total: 52”. ) Greatest season snowfall = 60.5” in 2007 - ‘08

#37
Stormhunter87

Posted 02 July 2019 - 01:58 PM

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Last day of Branson we had a burst of heavy showers. Pretty cool to see all the waterfalls just over flowing. Today on our way back we crossed over Lake Truman/Reservoir the water was crazy high almost up to highway 13. Very impressive. Didn't see that on the way down because we were coming from a different direction.
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#38
Hawkeye

Posted 02 July 2019 - 02:07 PM

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It appears the storms this afternoon/evening will be the hit-and-miss instability type storms, so plenty of locations won't get a lot.


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season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#39
Iowawx

Posted 02 July 2019 - 02:42 PM

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It looks like as usual, Cedar Rapids may get completely missed with thunderstorms again this evening. 



#40
East Dubzz

Posted 02 July 2019 - 02:49 PM

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It looks like as usual, Cedar Rapids may get completely missed with thunderstorms again this evening.


Really? I think there’s some potential for the CR area, but I guess it may be close.

2019 Statistics (Starting 3/23/19)

Total rainfall: 18.35"

July rainfall total: 4.15"

Largest 24-hour rainfall: 1.60" (7/18)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 2


#41
james1976

Posted 02 July 2019 - 03:02 PM

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Storm moving in! Very dark and windy and nonstop thunder rumbling in the distance!

#42
Iowawx

Posted 02 July 2019 - 03:09 PM

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Radar now looks like Cedar Rapids may only get light rain. It's just unreal how badly we get missed here. 


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#43
Niko

Posted 02 July 2019 - 03:23 PM

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Getting a t;stm currently w small hail and gusty winds. A few showers are hvy. Temps are in the mid 80s w high dews (70s). Very muggy indeed.



#44
Niko

Posted 02 July 2019 - 03:24 PM

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Bring on the Summer "Vortex"  brrr 80 degrees and no humidity!!  Currently loving 87 degrees with Feels like temp of 96.  Dewy at 72.  

It will get better! My lows this upcoming weekend are in the sweet 50s and highs in the 70s. WOOhooooo!!!!!.


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#45
Niko

Posted 02 July 2019 - 03:26 PM

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Ahhhhh....summer!  :)

Finally! :D


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#46
Tom

Posted 02 July 2019 - 04:27 PM

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Outflows from the storms to the north swept in about an hour ago and dropped temps into the upper 70’s. Fired up the grill and now a severe warned storm is knocking on my door! #grillin’ #storms #summertime
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#47
Iowawx

Posted 02 July 2019 - 04:44 PM

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Now have some good storms getting going in Benton county and slowly moving east towards Cedar Rapids. Let's see if they can strengthen more as they move east. 



#48
james1976

Posted 02 July 2019 - 05:12 PM

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Outflows from the storms to the north swept in about an hour ago and dropped temps into the upper 70’s. Fired up the grill and now a severe warned storm is knocking on my door! #grillin’ #storms #summertime

Literally what I'm doing right now. Out on my deck with my brother grilling burgers and watching another storm roll in from the west! First storm a couple hours ago dropped a quick 0.32"
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#49
james1976

Posted 02 July 2019 - 05:18 PM

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These storms are moving slow!

#50
Iowawx

Posted 02 July 2019 - 05:20 PM

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Well that didn't work out! Cedar Rapids is the like the only place where this seems to happen, I am so tired of it. I can't believe it's so hard for a thunderstorm to move into Cedar Rapids, Iowa. 

 

This ring of fire means good thunderstorms and heavy rain for Madison WI, Chicago IL, and the Quad Cites. 

 

It's quite possible Cedar Rapids could get no rain from this and could get into a bad drought.