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July 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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Current conditions at the Millard Airport here on the southwestern side of Omaha at 4:55pm - which is about one mile from where I live...

 

97 air temp

80 dewpoint

Heat Index of 118!!! :o

 

It absolutely feels like a sauna outside, to all you lucky ducks out east that got some rain and storms today... this is what you are missing and I bet you are jealous LOL.

Wow. I was just going to complain of temp 93, heat index 105, and dew of 75. Well I guess I just complained. That is brutal and I’m sure it feels worse in the city heat island.

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Absolutely pouring from the heavens! Storms have fired up along the lake breeze. Hit a high of 92F which makes the 1st day of the heat wave. It’s raining so hard it almost looks like a waterfall outside. Crazy.

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Absolutely gorgeous outside currently and ironically, dew is almost at near comfortable levels (66F) and a temp of 82F. A few fair weather clouds as well. Oh boy, it will start getting Hotttttttttttttt tomorrow.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Yeah to bad I didn’t get a strong storm. JUST 0.16” is all. Wow that was a tiny shower! Seems like these big lines just don’t deliver like they used to years ago. I’m really not confident on any storms tonight and the NWS isn’t either, and no one really knows.

Same yesterday. All the hvy stuff from Barry kinda stayed to my south. Although, I did get some locally good downpours, skies were sometimes deceiving by that dark look to my south.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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My total from yesterdays tropical moisture stayed under half inch, but a little more than a quarter of an inch. More like in between. Detroit received ova an inch and some other parts of the area got more than 2" of liquid. Just had to be under the hvy batch of precip.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Now, this is one strong heatwave taking shape......

DCT_SPECIAL107_1280x720.jpg

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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So, is something expected to form, or does it look like tonight will be a bust?

With a cap in place we need something to kick start the festivities. There’s a wave out in the Dakotas that *should* provide the spark northwest of me as the cap erodes, and then where the storms go from there is a guess. Someone should see something, but I wouldn’t hold your breath. Earlier MCS really threw a wrench into today’s fun.

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With a cap in place we need something to kick start the festivities. There’s a wave out in the Dakotas that *should* provide the spark northwest of me as the cap erodes, and then where the storms go from there is a guess. Someone should see something, but I wouldn’t hold your breath. Earlier MCS really threw a wrench into today’s fun.

That’s what I was worried about. Hopefully this doesn’t happen, because I barely got anything out of that expect a lawn I couldn’t mow.

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The HRRR continues to keep all the storms well north and east of CR/IC tonight/tomorrow.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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So now we are to believe what the HRRR says?

 

Just stating what it has been consistently showing.

 

The 00z 3k nam has a similar scenario, except it's farther west and south.  It drops significant rain late tonight into morning from southeast MN through nw IL.

 

It certainly appears Dubuque has a better shot at storms than CR/IC.

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season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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The NWS in Hastings just posted on the Facebook page about an 84 dewpoint recording in Aurora this evening. EIGHTY FOUR. I am currently in Aurora and let me tell you, I've never felt the air this humid. Absolute misery.

Great minds must think alike, I was just going to post this information from NWS Hastings Twitter Page. I walked to the mailbox and back and was sweating. Mailbox is maybe 100 feet from the front door. I don’t think the AC has quit running since early this afternoon.

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Just stating what it has been consistently showing.

 

The 00z 3k nam has a similar scenario, except it's farther west and south. It drops significant rain late tonight into morning from southeast MN through nw IL.

 

It certainly appears Dubuque has a better shot at storms than CR/IC.

Oh I know man. It’s just been so unreliable recently.

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Some storms have fired in northern Iowa. I’m assuming that’s what we should be keeping an eye on.

Yep. Those are tonight's storms. They are popping quickly, but moving in the wrong direction for now for my area. The low level jet & maybe nocturnal cooling are likely ramping up. Haven't had much nighttime convection this summer it seems.

Debuque is probably in a good spot for this round is my guess.

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The northward lift is the problem for eastern Iowa.  If they were moving due east, they could then sag south and maybe get us.  Instead, they'll have to move farther east (wisconsin maybe) before sagging.

 

Update:  The new HRRR run is showing some backbuilding through Iowa by morning, so perhaps we still have a shot.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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S WI getting rocked this morning esp near MSN...looking for those storms to start taking the south turn and slide into N IL later this morning.  After yesterday's downpours and local 1.0-1.5" totals, these storms should dump some more local heavy rains.  Many lawns around town were turning brown and showing some stress so the rains that came were well-timed.

 

I'm wondering how much influence these storms will have on temps this afternoon and how long it may delay the onset of the heat/humidity.  Nonetheless, it's a warm and muggy morning here 75F/71F with a light SW wind.

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It appears several rounds of heavy storms missed Debuque by several miles, though there are more cells west of there. It looks like my only hope now is on Saturday when most of Iowa has a slight risk of excessive rainfall. I like what WPC is showing for QPF on Saturday day 3, with heavy rainfall from southern to eastern Iowa, but most models don't look good like that with most of it missing south or north.

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At 5:45am this morning it’s still 83 degrees in Omaha.

 

And to add insult to injury, it looks like we will miss out on the scattered strong thunderstorms that developed overnight just to the west and north again. With our yards stressing from the heat, we needed those here.

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Gosh, I can't imagine what our members out in the Plains are enduring with those oppressive humidity levels.  It's like living in the jungles of the Amazon.  I read somewhere that the DP levels across parts of NE/IA today and tomorrow are predicted to be one of the highest readings in the world!  That's a remarkable stat to achieve across the heartland.

 

 

Today's JMA weeklies are in and they agree with the CFSv2 that we shall see an extended period of cooler and more refreshing air over the next 4 weeks.  Is this the worse part of this summers heat???  By all means, it may in fact be if the pattern that's being advertised does in fact deliver and I see no reason why it shouldn't.  I know I made a mistake busting on this weeks heat wave and quite an expansive one across the heartland.  If you take a mental image of today's NWS alert map showing the impressive coverage of heat advisories/warnings today, I expect those some areas  to end up with coolest departures overall as we close out the month, esp the west/central part of our Sub.  

 

So, without further ado, here are the JMA weekly maps....

 

Week 2 temp/precip....the model parks a broad based trough across the GL's region...

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201907.D1712_gl2.png

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R07_2/Y201907.D1712_gl0.png

 

 

Week 3-4 temp/precip...that 500mb trough continues to be parked over the GL's into August....

 

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201907.D1712_gl2.png

 

http://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/model/map/1mE/map1/img/R14_3/Y201907.D1712_gl0.png

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Good luck to those who score more rainfall today and through the weekend because after that it certainly looks like the majority of us will enter an extended dry period as the N.A. pattern amplifies and HP suppresses any chance of organized rainfall next week.  HP for days????  Sign me up....

 

 

 

D_vuK5uWwAA2Pjj.jpg

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I took my walk early today with the temperatures in the low 70’s (73 here at my house and the airport) and the Dew Point around 70 (70 at the airport 68 here at my house) it was a very nice morning for a walk. There has not been much rain here on the NW side of GR but the grass is still mostly green even in the areas that have not been watered. Grand Rapids remains in a thunderstorm drought as there have only been 4 reported for June and July. Today will be the 24th day in a row of 80 or better here at Grand Rapids. That is a long streak for this area

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At 5:45am this morning it’s still 83 degrees in Omaha.

 

And to add insult to injury, it looks like we will miss out on the scattered strong thunderstorms that developed overnight just to the west and north again. With our yards stressing from the heat, we needed those here.

Brutal for you. I think we only got down to 75 here. I had to take my middle school son to weights this morning, and it is a sticky, stagnant airmass for sure. Hastings is saying tomorrow may be worse in that dews could be higher. What, an 80 dew isn’t high enough? You saw Aurora had an 84 dew yesterday.

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Ouch. Glad I left Nebraska when I did lol. The dew points out there make the mid-70s DPs were expecting here tomorrow and Saturday seem like child's play.

 

Excessive heat warning hoisted for here.

 

 

 

...Hot and Humid Conditions Expected Today through Saturday...

OHZ003-006>008-017-018-027-028-036-037-181530-
/O.UPG.KCLE.EH.A.0001.190719T1600Z-190721T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KCLE.EH.W.0001.190718T1600Z-190721T0000Z/
Lucas-Wood-Ottawa-Sandusky-Hancock-Seneca-Wyandot-Crawford-Marion-
Morrow-
Including the cities of Toledo, Bowling Green, Port Clinton,
Fremont, Findlay, Tiffin, Upper Sandusky, Bucyrus, Marion,
and Mount Gilead
323 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019

...EXCESSIVE HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM EDT
SATURDAY...

The National Weather Service in Cleveland has issued an Excessive
Heat Warning, which is in effect from noon today to 8 PM EDT
Saturday. The Excessive Heat Watch is no longer in effect.

* HEAT INDEX VALUES...from near 100 today to as high as 112 Friday
and Saturday, due to temperatures in the upper 90s, and
dewpoints in the mid 70s.

* TIMING...This afternoon through Saturday evening. The highest
heat index values will occur late afternoon into the early
evening but little relief will occur overnight with low
temperatures only dipping to the mid 70s to around 80 degrees.

* IMPACTS...A couple days of heat indices near or above 105
degrees could have a cumulative impact on some individuals,
especially those who engage in prolonged outdoor work or other
activities. Also, car interiors can reach lethal temperatures in
a matter of minutes. Never leave pets, children, or the elderly
unattended in parked vehicles. The extended period of high heat
and humidity can worsen the effects of heat stress.

Formerly *ahem*: LNK_Weather, TOL_Weather, FAR_Weather, MSP_Weather, IMoveALot_Weather.

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It keeps back building so maybe CR will get in on some action yet!?

 

It does not look good for CR/IC.  Dubuque is getting some solid rain, though.

season snowfall: 34.8"

'22-23: 30.2"      '21-22: 27.1"      '20-21: 52.5"      '19-20: 36.2"      '18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"

Average snowfall: ~30"

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I took my walk early today with the temperatures in the low 70’s (73 here at my house and the airport) and the Dew Point around 70 (70 at the airport 68 here at my house) it was a very nice morning for a walk. There has not been much rain here on the NW side of GR but the grass is still mostly green even in the areas that have not been watered. Grand Rapids remains in a thunderstorm drought as there have only been 4 reported for June and July. Today will be the 24th day in a row of 80 or better here at Grand Rapids. That is a long streak for this area

I literally just came back from a short walk and as I got back to my house I saw a close lightning strike and loud crack of thunder.  The saying, "when thunder roars, stay indoors" came to mind.  Just had a brief intense downpour so that was good timing, otherwise I'd be soaked.  Like you said, it is pretty warm and muggy out there this morning but it actually feels kinda nice with a breeze and dark clouds moving in.  Felt like I was on vaca somewhere in the tropics.

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Ouch. Glad I left Nebraska when I did lol. The dew points out there make the mid-70s DPs were expecting here tomorrow and Saturday seem like child's play.

 

Excessive heat warning hoisted for here.

Welcome to the eastern part of our Sub Forum!  Think about it this way, "Cutter Season" is just around the corner....I feel a big year is on the way....

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Its gorgeous outside now w a comfortable dew of 64F. That will not last though, as it will climb as the day wears on. Heatwave starts today and ends on Saturday w temps between 95-100F and HI nearing 110F in spots.

 

Note: My area is now under in a  "Excessive Heat Warning"

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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