July 2019 Observations and Discussion

[westMJim]

Happy Friday!  It is THE warmest and muggiest morning of the season 81F/77F...I was awaken once by the A/C cranking last night as my room usually gets rather chilly and comfy. Had to snuggle under the covers at one point.  Boy, what a dense airmass!  I just stepped outside and it's almost hard to breathe in with this extremely humid air.  Crazy.  You don't often get this humid around these parts and I'm sure the wet soils from all the recent heavy rains is aiding in the humidity.  I'm wondering if that will help from temps getting too out of control and hitting the "century" mark.

With it this humid it is very hard to get even in the mid 90's Some people think that Florida gets up to 100 in the summer time well if it does it on days that are less humid. The clouds and rain to the west should keep the temps down here a little for today.

[St Paul Storm]

High bumped to 94 today with heat indices as high as 110F. This is now the 5th day in a row we’re in a zone of possible severe storms. Enhanced risk for later today and tonight. Several CAMs showing MLCAPE of over 5000 J/kg of energy. Sig tors values are very high on the 06z NAM. Crazy setup. MPX calling this one of the best setups you’ll see around here.

[St Paul Storm]

And then I read the rest of the morning discussion and I see this. We all know what’s going to happen.....

 

Lastly, an organized cluster of thunderstorms has developed early

this morning across the western Dakotas. The expectation with those

storms is for them to dissipate after daybreak as the low level jet

subsides. However, if these storms become self-sustainable, they

would really throw a wrench into the forecast for today`s heat and

thunderstorm outlook if they make it to our area by later this

morning.

[Niko]

Not a heatwave for SEMI (speaking for my area that is). Reason is, that my high temp is expected to be at 89F, instead of the mid 90s that was forecasted. Yesterday, I did top off at 91F. Tomorrow looks like the hottest, when 98F to possibly 100F will be possible. For a heatwave to be occurring, you need at least 3 days of temps at 90F or betta. If my temp hits 90F today, then, a heatwave will be happening here.

 

Currently, a juicy 76D,temp at 82F, RF 91F RH84%....UGH!

 

Air Quality Alert and Excessive Heat Warning for today

 

Next week features highs in the mid 70s and lows in the mid 50s.

[St Paul Storm]

Moderate risk now for St Cloud to the northern MSP burbs over into Wisconsin.

[St Paul Storm]

From SPC:

 

Upgrading to Moderate Risk this outlook for the potential threats of

multiple strong tornadoes and a derecho later this afternoon and

evening. CAPE/shear/SRH parameter space in this region is forecast

to be exceptionally rare for mid July amid a predominately zonal

flow regime across the northern states.

[Hawkeye]

I just hope this area can get a nice, solid line Saturday night.  It's not a sure thing.  Last night's euro hits northern Iowa hard, then transitions everything back west and south.  The WPC only has 0.50" or a bit less falling over ec/se Iowa.  We only get one shot as the front swings through.

[Niko]

T'stm activity looks at a minimal today, very sporadic. hopefully, my area can get hammered.....

[Minny_Weather]

On a Taco Bell run. AC on full blast at almost 11:30 pm. Definitely the most miserable day of the year so far. Oh and it’s also my bday LOL.

Dude no way it was my birthday too!

[CentralNebWeather]

Hot and humid today, but this like the end of the heat wave here. We may not get out of the upper 60’s on Sunday and could fall to the low to mid 50’s Sunday night. What a change

[Stormgeek]

Welp, this is not good. Best hope is these don't stay isolated. Might be a long evening around here sitting in that hatched 15% TOR.

[St Paul Storm]

Welp, this is not good. Best hope is these don't stay isolated. Might be a long evening around here sitting in that hatched 15% TOR.

That complex is still going in W MN and it’s not showing many signs of dying. We need it to go away now if we have any hopes of good storms later. My gut tells me things won’t materialize as modeled. Thick overcast about to overtake the area, we won’t hit the mid 90s, and thus the energy will be limited. That’s just my take right now. Ask me again in 2 hours....

[Stormgeek]

That complex is still going in W MN and it’s not showing many signs of dying. We need it to go away now if we have any hopes of good storms later. My gut tells me things won’t materialize as modeled. Thick overcast about to overtake the area, we won’t hit the mid 90s, and thus the energy will be limited. That’s just my take right now. Ask me again in 2 hours....

Yeah, I just took a look right after I posted that. Looks like energy will indeed stay down. Curious to see what the SPC thinks. Shear is still quite high.

 

Edit: It is amazing to me how it NEVER fails that if there is a chance that morning storms mess with the afternoon, they will. I've seen it so much in these parts.

[East Dubzz]

10 am and the heat index is already approaching 100? No thanks!

[St Paul Storm]

Yeah, I just took a look right after I posted that. Looks like energy will indeed stay down. Curious to see what the SPC thinks. Shear is still quite high.

Edit: It is amazing to me how it NEVER fails that if there is a chance that morning storms mess with the afternoon, they will. I've seen it so much in these parts.

SPC mesoanalysis page currently shows surface based CAPE of around 4500J/kg near the metro and 5500 J/kg in S/C MN. We’ll see if the stuff moving in from the west becomes the main show.

[Tom]

The Summer version of a "Blue Norther" but not as quick of a temp drop you would normally characterize during a winter time event.  Some places will drop from the low 100's across KS into the 60's over a period of 24 hours.  #refreshing

 

 

[St Paul Storm]

That warned cell that’s been riding the backside of the complex in W MN appears to be strengthening and going rogue. That’s a positive development.

 

New SPC update in 30 min.

[Stormgeek]

That warned cell that’s been riding the backside of the complex in W MN appears to be strengthening and going rogue. That’s a positive development.

 

New SPC update in 30 min.

It looks like all the models take everything north of the metro. That is good/bad depending on your viewpoint.

[james1976]

88/102 already

[St Paul Storm]

It looks like all the models take everything north of the metro. That is good/bad depending on your viewpoint.

True, but none of the models had the Dakotas MCS surviving as long as it did either. It’s a crapshoot trying to figure out what’s going to happen.

[St Paul Storm]

SPC update is largely unchanged. Enhanced and moderate risk in this area. Let’s see if it materializes.

[Minny_Weather]

89.8°F combining with a DP of 79°F making for a HI of 106°F.

[Stormgeek]

SPC update is largely unchanged. Enhanced and moderate risk in this area. Let’s see if it materializes.

I think the 15% TOR is kind of taking alot of the attention, can't brush off a hatched 10% TOR risk. Also, it is absolutely disgusting out there right now, dewpoint has to be close to 75 if not higher.

 

Edit: Most forecasters saying to straight up ignore everything except the MDT because the models drive everything north of the cities; interesting take. Saying the other pretty colors are just precautionary. 

[westMJim]

At this time there are many very high dew points around the Great Lakes area here in Michigan some of the highest DP’s I have ever seen. Here are some of the current DP’s around the State of Michigan. . Ann Arbor 79, Battle Creek 78, Coldwater 80, Jackson 79, Monroe 84??? Sturgis 81 Grand Rapids 77 And drum roll please here at my house I have a current DP of 80 giving a (according to my weather station) a heat index of 111 with a air temperature of 88.

[St Paul Storm]

I think the 15% TOR is kind of taking alot of the attention, can't brush off a hatched 10% TOR risk. Also, it is absolutely disgusting out there right now, dewpoint has to be close to 75 if not higher.

Edit: Most forecasters saying to straight up ignore everything except the MDT because the models drive everything north of the cities; interesting take. Saying the other pretty colors are just precautionary.

 

If forecasters are telling people to ignore the enhanced and slight risk areas they need to be checked. Besides, aren’t all weather watches and warnings precautionary? Not sure I understand why they’re saying that.

[St Paul Storm]

89/78 with a heat index of 100. Parts of S MN have dew points in the low 80s. Swampy.

[CentralNebWeather]

2 pm. Temp of 96, heat index 109, dew of 76. Yuck.

[St Paul Storm]

Here comes the sun. Suddenly 92/79 feels like 104.

 

Also, here comes a tornado watch for the metro and surrounding areas. A bit South of model guidance.

[Stormgeek]

I think there is concern to be had that models might be overestimating how far north the front is. I think surface obs have it further south than modeled.

[Money]

Best surface cape is definitely south so far

 

7000 in NE IA and SW WI.

 

Barely anything north of the Twin cities where the morning convection hung around longer than expected

[St Paul Storm]

Approaching the all-time record dew point at MSP.

[Stormgeek]

MLCAPE about to spike and cap should break here in not too long. Not a very strong one based on the sounding MSP got at 1pm. Stuff firing up north already, curious to see how far south things fire.

[Hawkeye]

WPC continues to be less-than-enthusiastic about rain for ec/se Iowa.  It would suck to waste all this fuel.

[james1976]

My phone has a 93 temp and 111 heat index here in Waterloo

[Tom]

Once the sun heated up the surface, puffy fair weather cumulus have formed as a result from the recent heavy rains across N IL.  Temps haven't gone up as high as they were being predicted yesterday.  You can thank the wetter soils that have prevented the higher 90's from transpiring which were being forecast.  It's still a rather oppressive day, current air temp 91F, DP 76F with a HI 103F...not as bad as it could have been.

[jaster220]

92F w/118F HI @ KRMY. As noted by WestMIJim, the DP readings there at the little airport on the south end of Marshall are "suspicious", so take it fwiw, which is miserable any way you cut it! 

[St Paul Storm]

Scattered hail the size of apples and winds of 80mph both likely according to the tornado watch wording.

[East Dubzz]

The rain gauge at my parents house seems to have a dew point about 2-3 degrees higher than what DBQ is reporting. Seems to be this way pretty consistently. Would there be a reason this could be true, or should I make an adjustment on the gauge?

 

I guess there are some dew points similar to what my parents have (82), so maybe it's right?

[MNTonka]

Approaching the all-time record dew point at MSP.

What is the record? I’m drenching sweat from just standing outside watering the garden... and it usually takes quite a bit to get me sweating.

[Andie]

Iowa City HI hit 108 earlier.

 

Those are Texas temps.!

 

When did Iowa slip south? Pole shift?