July 2019 Observations and Discussion

[Stormy]

There are a few nice lines of storms up in MN this morning.

 

Today/tonight is still a bit of a mystery for Iowa.  Models have generally been more bullish for areas well north of CR/IC today, then west and south tonight.  I'm concerned the morning/midday storms moving along the MN/IA border will throw clouds and a boundary well south, setting up southern Iowa for the best action tonight.

It sounds like most of the action will be along and north of the front and could linger into tomorrow afternoon for southern Iowa. Not really liking what some CAMs were showing, but I'm hoping for 2"-3" of rain! Lol

DMX was thinking the front may stall for a period in central Iowa with training storm potential. We'll find out soon enough.

[Stormy]

A tweet from NWS Des Moines about the svr. warnings in northern/central Iowa.....Some of you may be looking at radar wondering where is the storm? There is no substantial precipitation associated with this storm, but the outflow from the other storms are inducing severe wind gusts in this warning.

[Tom]

Tornado Warning just north of Money's place....

[Money]

Yup

 

Pouring now

 

New SPC update said that the next round (in MN/IA) should travel roughly the same spots along an outflow boundary

 

Upped the tornado potential to 5% here

[Tom]

Yup

 

Pouring now

 

New SPC update said that the next round (in MN/IA) should travel roughly the same spots along an outflow boundary

 

Upped the tornado potential to 5% here

 

Best Severe Wx set up in a while across N WI...actually, a couple years ago or maybe it was last year, there were numerous tornado's that ripped trails through forests. I remember seeing footage of long-lived tornado paths throughout N WI.  Actually, I just dug up the year I was thinking and it was in May '17: https://kbjr6.com/northwest-wisconsin/2019/05/16/thursday-marks-two-year-anniversary-of-longest-tracked-tornado-in-wisconsin-history/

[Hawkeye]

The cool outflow is passing through Ames and is approaching Waterloo.

 

Here's the new SPC severe-potential map.

 

[jaster220]

Enhanced Risk knocking on my back door. Wonder if we'll get a Watch? Just in case, going to make sure I garage my newer ride from exposure. Massive Flood Warning boxes in Wisco. Don't see that every day!

[Hawkeye]

WPC qpf update

 

[jaster220]

Enhanced Risk knocking on my back door. Wonder if we'll get a Watch? Just in case, going to make sure I garage my newer ride from exposure. Massive Flood Warning boxes in Wisco. Don't see that every day!

 

Most of The Mitt under a Watch issued at 2:15 with the best window from 3 pm until 11 pm. Been a while since we've had such a large watch coverage area tbh. 

[Hawkeye]

A little cell just popped a couple miles nw of me, just as the outflow/front is about to move through.

[jcwxguy]

Here comes the cold front

[jaster220]

AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS through 18Z Sunday afternoon)

Issued at 205 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019

 

I expect a line of strong to severe storms to move through all of

our TAF sites in the 20z (MKG) to 23z (JXN/LAN). The line has had

a history of damaging winds. Once that line moves through there

will likely be a quiet period but there is wave on the front so

another period of showers and possibly thunderstorms is likely in

the 06z to 12z time frame. Once that is through, I expect MVFR

cigs as the cold air undercuts warm air currently over us.

 

 

Car safely garaged.

[jaster220]

While hot out there attm, nowhere near the 96F in my grid. Unlike this spring when a sunny day would often blow past the forecasted high by 4-5 deg's, when we actually get a "heatwave", all three days have under-performed the expected high temps. NOT complaining here, just strange situation has played out with this event. Also, there's a stiff southerly breeze taking the edge off of the misery. Anyone at the lake or swimming pools, this is perfect wx for them!

[Stormy]

It's stifling hot outside! Worse than ever as there's less wind near the outflow that's about to move through. Actually, as I'm typing I heard the wind and it just moved in currently! Bye bye tropical weather. A bit ago it was 96°/79° & HI was 114°.

 

@ Hawkeye

So that little pop up shower didn't hit you? Thought it looked like it was right over your area.

[Stormy]

WPC qpf update

 

That's a sweet looking map. I hope it verifies as that would get the driest areas of Iowa!

[Niko]

Enhanced Risk knocking on my back door. Wonder if we'll get a Watch? Just in case, going to make sure I garage my newer ride from exposure. Massive Flood Warning boxes in Wisco. Don't see that every day!

Jaster buddy...you are so close.......WHOA!!!!!

[Niko]

Temp at 95F w a HI of 104F and D of 72F.

 

Currently I am in the "Slight Risk" and under a STW. Radar looks nice. Lets hope it stays together.

[Niko]

Hazardous Weather Outlook

National Weather Service Detroit/Pontiac MI

420 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019
 

MIZ060>063-068>070-075-076-211200-

Shiawassee-Genesee-Lapeer-St. Clair-Livingston-Oakland-Macomb-

Washtenaw-Wayne-

420 PM EDT Sat Jul 20 2019
 

This hazardous weather outlook is for portions of southeast

Michigan.
 

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch is in effect until 10 pm EDT. A round of

thunderstorms is between 5 PM and midnight, with damaging wind near

60 mph as the primary hazard. Localized heavy rainfall is also

possible which could lead to significant flooding or flash flooding

of poor drainage and other prone areas. Storm motion will be from

west to east around 40 mph.

 

[Stormy]

I'm keeping my eyes on the storms in west central Iowa, or nw of Des Moines. Hopefully it will keep expanding as it's kind of moving toward the IC./CR area.

 

It's kind of weird that no storms are popping along the surface front in the afternoon. Cells behind it won't benefit from all of that CAPE, but all I care about is we really need a heavy rain, preferably from strong storms!

[Hawkeye]

I don't like the way the central Iowa cell is already sinking southeast.  If that misses south, we may not get much rain tonight.

 

 

@ Hawkeye
So that little pop up shower didn't hit you? Thought it looked like it was right over your area.

 

It dropped 0.10" a half mile north of me, but only 0.01" here.  I could see it pouring 1/8 mile north while it was barely raining here.

[jaster220]

Dark like it's 9:30 here. had to switch on a lamp to see my keyboard. 1st line passing thru attm. Windy w/o RN (yet)

[Stormy]

I don't like the way the central Iowa cell is already sinking southeast. If that misses south, we may not get much rain tonight.

 

 

Yeah I noticed it’s diving more se. now. I don’t know why storms in Iowa want to move se. while they were moving east all morning to our north, or so it seemed.

[jaster220]

  Rains hit and temp plummeted from 92F to 78F (80F HI). Heatwave over! 

[Minny_Weather]

[Iowawx]

I don't like the way the central Iowa cell is already sinking southeast. If that misses south, we may not get much rain tonight.

 

 

 

It dropped 0.10" a half mile north of me, but only 0.01" here. I could see it pouring 1/8 mile north while it was barely raining here.

Does it look like Cedar Rapids is going to remain dry all night?

[Hawkeye]

Today/tonight is still a bit of a mystery for Iowa.  Models have generally been more bullish for areas well north of CR/IC today, then west and south tonight.  I'm concerned the morning/midday storms moving along the MN/IA border will throw clouds and a boundary well south, setting up southern Iowa for the best action tonight.

 

My fear was justified.  That is exactly what is happening.  This is shaping up to possibly be a total bust for at least Cedar Rapids, and maybe Iowa City.

 

Des Moines was just clobbered by a big cell and there's another one moving in.

[Stormy]

My fear was justified.  That is exactly what is happening.  This is shaping up to possibly be a total bust for at least Cedar Rapids, and maybe Iowa City.

 

Des Moines was just clobbered by a big cell and there's another one moving in.

Yeah several of the CAMs had been showing that, but was hoping they'd be wrong. This is crazy that it's following the same path as earlier this week and will probably just miss me. Heard distant thunder a few times now.

[St Paul Storm]

Picked up nearly 1” of rain this morning. The heat index at 6pm is roughly 45 degrees lower than this time yesterday. Free AC and it feels amazing.

[Stormy]

I don't understand why they're moving se when they were mostly north of the outflow and still are. The southern end may be surface rooted now, where I could understand se. movement.

 

NWS point forecast was saying up to 1" to 2" just tonight and likely POPs tomorrow evening still which seems far fetched.

[OKwx2k4]

While hot out there attm, nowhere near the 96F in my grid. Unlike this spring when a sunny day would often blow past the forecasted high by 4-5 deg's, when we actually get a "heatwave", all three days have under-performed the expected high temps. NOT complaining here, just strange situation has played out with this event. Also, there's a stiff southerly breeze taking the edge off of the misery. Anyone at the lake or swimming pools, this is perfect wx for them!

Temps have only over performed here on maybe a total of 5 days since spring and that is only because the rain forecast was slightly off.

 

That's one of those things you just tuck under your hat for future reference.

[Stormhunter87]

Cold front finally rolling through feels good and we are finally getting some much needed rain.

[Tom]

I was awaken by loud boomers a couple hours ago.  Lots of vivid lighting.  Took a look at the radar loop and from N Cook county into Lake county, training storms formed and as a result, a flood advisory has been issued.  We've been spoiled with daily storms in this pattern.  I'm guessing that I've picked up close to 4" of rain over the past few days (1.4" this morning).  Everything is lush and green around here once again.

[Tom]

NE and KC region getting some beneficial rains and it looks like @CentralNeb is under another Flood Advisory along with both the LNK/KC area.  It's nice to see those who have been missing out on the recent rains get a chance to catch up on what has been a long dry spell.

[Tom]

Monday will feature "Northwoods Air" around the region...those are some comfy DP's right there...it will be nice to finally sleep with the window cracked open and let in some fresh air. 

 

 

 

[Minny_Weather]

Monday will feature "Northwoods Air" around the region...those are some comfy DP's right there...it will be nice to finally sleep with the window cracked open and let in some fresh air. 

 

Tuesday lookin' good for here.

 

[Tom]

Tuesday lookin' good for here.

 

 

 

Fixed!  Just realized I posted Tuesday's maps...both days will be very nice...

[Niko]

Still feels muggy w a D of 70F n a temp of 72F under mostly cloudy skies. Drier, sunnier weather coming for all of next week w temps in the 70s and lows in the 50s b4 starting to warm up by weeks end.

[Niko]

Tips to keep in mind:

 

 

[jaster220]

 

Tips to keep in mind:

 

 

 

 

These all look "Captain Obvious" stuff, except ofc the sheets in your freezer. Seriously?? Mines full of food and besides, they could at least say "in a bag" as peeps could just take it literally.    As is, would stay cooled for about 5 seconds anyways, unless they meant to put them in wet straight from the washing machine, lol

[jaster220]

KRMY's unit may have suffered damage yesterday evening. The last temp readings showed a drop from 92F to 78F over about 40 minute period as the storm front hit. By 18:15 temp was N/A and has been except for a brief time around 8 am this morning. Sure nice to kill the a/c and open windows. O'cast giving it the early autumn feel out there attm. Sad that all this strong dynamics delivered a measly 0.11" of liquid per the airport with most of that occurring overnight. Gonna be getting dry here this week, despite the lower high temps.