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July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

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#1
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 30 June 2019 - 10:30 PM

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June ended a little above average. If you take just the average high it looks more impressive with +4.0 degrees at KLMT but the overall mean was fairly marginal at +1.2. 

 

Now onto the bulk of Summer. Everybody put in their July predictions. I'm going with either just a marginally above or a normal looking one. Maybe not like July 2016, I actually ended up a degree below that year.


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Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

 

2010-2011 - 58.20" (161%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 16.70" (46%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (146%)
 
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 8
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14,
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Severe Wind: 0
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 8 (2019), 16 (2018), 11 (2017), 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12 T'storm Days
Severe T'storms: 4 (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe - (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 


#2
Tyler Mode

Posted 01 July 2019 - 05:28 AM

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June ended up 0.1 above average at my station.  1.8 degrees warmer on the highs, and 1.7 degrees cooler than average on the lows.

 

Precip was 1.81", thanks to the thunderstorms. 


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#3
jcmcgaffey

Posted 01 July 2019 - 06:00 AM

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July is going to be hot and dry while August will be cooler and wetter. With the troughing and nw flow we have had lately it’s turn for the ridge to return for 4-6 weeks and then back to nw west flow in August.
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#4
Eujunga

Posted 01 July 2019 - 07:04 AM

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Ended up at 77 / 51 / 0.56" for the month.  Perfect weather for July!


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#5
Jginmartini

Posted 01 July 2019 - 07:30 AM

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Storm line slipping just to the North at this point.
Brothers place is located just north of La Pine State Park.
My current view on a bike ride

Attached Files


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Arctic air event 12/24/2018 7:08pm DENIED!!!

#6
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 July 2019 - 07:32 AM

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Kovacik has been producing some great AFD write-ups lately at NWS Seattle, especially considering it's the quieter Summer months.

 

I look forward to reading them when we get back to the action-filled Fall/Winter months.



#7
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2019 - 08:02 AM

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Kovacik has been producing some great AFD write-ups lately at NWS Seattle, especially considering it's the quieter Summer months.

 

I look forward to reading them when we get back to the action-filled Fall/Winter months.

 

 

How was the weekend trip?   Weather sure worked out great!



#8
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2019 - 08:03 AM

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12Z GFS is much better for the 4th compared to its 00Z run.   


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#9
HighlandExperience

Posted 01 July 2019 - 08:06 AM

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12Z GFS is much better for the 4th compared to its 00Z run.


How does July 3rd look? Especially the east slopes of the Cascades.

#10
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2019 - 08:10 AM

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How does July 3rd look? Especially the east slopes of the Cascades.

 

 

00Z ECMWF showed upper 70s and sunny over there on Wednesday... marine layer and low 70s over here.  

 

Usually our marine layer days are pretty windy over there... particularly just east of the Cascade crest.



#11
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 July 2019 - 08:16 AM

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Cloudy morning and 58F in Downtown Springfield. S valley going to get some rain?

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Feb 25)
Coldest low: 20 (Mar 4)
Days with below freezing temps: 46
Total snowfall: 20.2"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#12
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 July 2019 - 08:18 AM

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64 after a low of 56 this morning. Headed out to lake cushman this afternoon hopefully the rain holds off until I’m back in Tacoma.

#13
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2019 - 09:03 AM

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Meant to post these over the weekend. Hiked Coffin Mountain near Detroit, OR on Saturday and the beargrass display was stunning. Had never seen a bloom this extensive before.

Attached File  377DA953-6C95-4D01-AF08-93C928BEA012.jpeg   210.92KB   0 downloads

Attached File  1FC1BE05-F29F-4E3B-BBB8-5B19BA9254DD.jpeg   183.13KB   0 downloads

Attached File  67718D5F-285B-4F5D-A96F-E20B79C3DEE1.jpeg   236.02KB   0 downloads
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#14
HighlandExperience

Posted 01 July 2019 - 09:04 AM

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Great photos Jesse
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#15
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2019 - 09:06 AM

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There were also thunderstorms brewing over this part of the Cascades on Saturday. Before this we hiked to Duffy Lake in the SW part of the Mount Jefferson wilderness and had a strong thunderstorm move overhead with frequent lightning and hail. It must have been even worse in other spots, since when we were driving to the Coffin Mountain trailhead later on there were deep “drifts” of large hail along the road.
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#16
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 July 2019 - 09:17 AM

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Meant to post these over the weekend. Hiked Coffin Mountain near Detroit, OR on Saturday and the beargrass display was stunning. Had never seen a bloom this extensive before.

attachicon.gif377DA953-6C95-4D01-AF08-93C928BEA012.jpeg

attachicon.gif1FC1BE05-F29F-4E3B-BBB8-5B19BA9254DD.jpeg

attachicon.gif67718D5F-285B-4F5D-A96F-E20B79C3DEE1.jpeg

 

Beautiful. I went up that way the previous weekend and noticed the beargrass bloom was quite profuse this year. Just went up and picnicked at Daly Lake that day. 


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Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#17
jakeinthevalley

Posted 01 July 2019 - 09:18 AM

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Meant to post these over the weekend. Hiked Coffin Mountain near Detroit, OR on Saturday and the beargrass display was stunning. Had never seen a bloom this extensive before.

attachicon.gif377DA953-6C95-4D01-AF08-93C928BEA012.jpeg

attachicon.gif1FC1BE05-F29F-4E3B-BBB8-5B19BA9254DD.jpeg

attachicon.gif67718D5F-285B-4F5D-A96F-E20B79C3DEE1.jpeg


Very nice. My daughter went up there last week and her pics were quite the same. We went up Stahlman Point yesterday (just outside Detroit) then went across to the "Phantom Bridge" just outside the Opal Creek Wildernaess. Still patches of snow at 4600'

The beargrass, paintbrush and lupine were all over the place up there. So many places to day hike in that area.
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#18
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 July 2019 - 09:20 AM

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June ended up about 2-3F above average in the Willamette Valley, with generally well below normal precip. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#19
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2019 - 09:24 AM

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June ended up about 2-3F above average in the Willamette Valley, with generally well below normal precip. 

 

Time for July to run hot and dry after all the troughing and NW flow we've had lately.



#20
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2019 - 09:26 AM

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Beautiful. I went up that way the previous weekend and noticed the beargrass bloom was quite profuse this year. Just went up and picnicked at Daly Lake that day. 

 

Thank you. Have never been to Daly Lake. I do know that there is a SNOTEL site up there, I keep running across the name in my research.



#21
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2019 - 09:37 AM

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Average high/low of 75/53 here for June. A couple degrees above average, mainly because of warm highs. 1.5" of precip.



#22
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 July 2019 - 09:41 AM

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Thank you. Have never been to Daly Lake. I do know that there is a SNOTEL site up there, I keep running across the name in my research.

 

It is a nice little lake fairly close to the Pyramids. Just a couple hundred yards off the road, but never crowded. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#23
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2019 - 09:42 AM

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Really could be a lot worse at this point. I like how the dome of heat keeps getting relegated to the long range. Fully expect July to end up warmer than average, but maybe not as crazy as recent years.

Attached File  B6EFD5CE-08C0-4512-B681-9400E8D4D194.png   24.39KB   0 downloads
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#24
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2019 - 09:44 AM

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It is a nice little lake fairly close to the Pyramids. Just a couple hundred yards off the road, but never crowded.


Will have to check it out. We hiked Middle Pyramid around this time three years ago. Beautiful place, but lots of new logging around. There is a checkerboard land ownership pattern north of Tombstone pass in the Old Cascades.

#25
jakeinthevalley

Posted 01 July 2019 - 09:56 AM

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Mid level moisture is working it's way from south to north. We'll see if there can be anything to come from it before the westerlies punch through later today.



#26
Deweydog

Posted 01 July 2019 - 09:59 AM

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Warmorning out there.

All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#27
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 July 2019 - 10:00 AM

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Will have to check it out. We hiked Middle Pyramid around this time three years ago. Beautiful place, but lots of new logging around. There is a checkerboard land ownership pattern north of Tombstone pass in the Old Cascades.

 

We drove down to HWY 20 from Daly Lake and there were some really impressive logging operations going on. 


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Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#28
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2019 - 10:00 AM

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Mid level moisture is working it's way from south to north. We'll see if there can be anything to come from it before the westerlies punch through later today.


Sometimes a marine push can work as a trigger for convection.

#29
jakeinthevalley

Posted 01 July 2019 - 10:11 AM

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Sometimes a marine push can work as a trigger for convection.

My guess is that we would have to reach the low 80's in the valley today to really get some vertical motion primed. I am afraid the westerlies will be too deep and rapidly stabilize the mid levels. Of course I could be wrong, but I am not sold on elevated convection this evening


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#30
jakeinthevalley

Posted 01 July 2019 - 10:18 AM

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BTW, I am not sure I would drive up to the closest trailhead to the Phantom Bridge again. I grew up driving some interesting logging roads and this one was a little hairy. It is very narrow and we had to move some rock fall out of the way to even get through. A few areas only allowed a couple feet passage on the downhill side with a 1000' drop into the drainage below.

I didn't push it, but there were some spots that I could tell my daughter was getting a bit nervous!!

#31
GobBluth

Posted 01 July 2019 - 10:24 AM

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Really could be a lot worse at this point. I like how the dome of heat keeps getting relegated to the long range. Fully expect July to end up warmer than average, but maybe not as crazy as recent years.

attachicon.gifB6EFD5CE-08C0-4512-B681-9400E8D4D194.png

The average high dips on the 6th and 10th are odd.



#32
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2019 - 10:31 AM

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The average high dips on the 6th and 10th are odd.

 

Probably just a statistical quirk.



#33
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2019 - 10:48 AM

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No change on the 12Z ECMWF for the 4th... still shows 76 or 77 in Seattle so possibly 80.

 

This run is a little warmer for Saturday and Sunday compared to the 00Z run.    Probably 74-77 each day from Friday - Sunday.

 

The only rain shown is on Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday morning... but the amounts on this run are way higher for many areas.

 

ecmwf-washington-precip-48hr-inch-218760



#34
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 July 2019 - 10:56 AM

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No change on the 12Z ECMWF for the 4th... still shows 76 or 77 in Seattle so possibly 80.

 

This run is a little warmer for Saturday and Sunday compared to the 00Z run.    Probably 74-77 each day from Friday - Sunday.

 

The only rain shown is on Tuesday afternoon into early Wednesday morning... but the amounts on this run are way higher for many areas.

 

ecmwf-washington-precip-48hr-inch-218760

 

Would be nice to wet the whistle. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#35
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 July 2019 - 10:57 AM

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PDX got up to 84. What a weekend and a way to end June.


Update: PDX made it up to 85 officially.

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#36
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2019 - 10:58 AM

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Looks like our annual mid-July to mid-August perma-ridge starts locking in at hour 240 on the 12z Euro.

Very pleasant run before that though.

#37
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 July 2019 - 11:00 AM

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Looks like our annual mid-July to mid-August perma-ridge starts locking in at hour 240 on the 12z Euro.

Very pleasant run before that though.

 

As long as blocking sets up in the sweet spot in late December I will take it. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#38
Omegaraptor

Posted 01 July 2019 - 11:05 AM

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Something like July 2016 would be nice. 2016 was a really good summer IMO. Warm but not a scorcher like 2014/5/7/8.

2018 in Portland had 27.30" rainfall, which is the 8th driest year on record and 8.73" below normal

 

Current rainfall for PDX in 2019 is 14.15”, which is 5.31” below normal as of July 13


#39
Eujunga

Posted 01 July 2019 - 11:09 AM

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Looks like our annual mid-July to mid-August perma-ridge starts locking in at hour 240 on the 12z Euro.

Very pleasant run before that though.

 

Yeah, but as you pointed out a few posts ago, the worst of the ridging keeps getting pushed back with each run.  I can live with constant ridging if it's always 10 days out in an infinitely receding mirage! :)


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#40
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 July 2019 - 11:11 AM

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Yeah, but as you pointed out a few posts ago, the worst of the ridging keeps getting pushed back with each run.  I can live with constant ridging if it's always 10 days out in an infinitely receding mirage! :)

 

Also the latter part of the GFS ensemble has a drop off. So very possible we see a 2-4 day heat spike and then cool back off to normal. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#41
Eujunga

Posted 01 July 2019 - 11:12 AM

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Something like July 2016 would be nice. 2016 was a really good summer IMO. Warm but not a scorcher like 2014/5/7/8.

 

The last third of July 2016 and the whole of August was just another scorcher here in Eugene.  Average high for the period around 88.


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Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#42
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2019 - 11:18 AM

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Something like July 2016 would be nice. 2016 was a really good summer IMO. Warm but not a scorcher like 2014/5/7/8.

 

Just one of our warmest Augusts on record, was all. At least no long range GFS record breaking cold anxiety!



#43
Omegaraptor

Posted 01 July 2019 - 11:18 AM

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As long as blocking sets up in the sweet spot in late December I will take it.


Our last front or center loaded winter was 16-17. A bit of bad luck to get two backloaded winters in a row but I hope 2019-20 breaks the trend.

2018 in Portland had 27.30" rainfall, which is the 8th driest year on record and 8.73" below normal

 

Current rainfall for PDX in 2019 is 14.15”, which is 5.31” below normal as of July 13


#44
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 July 2019 - 11:24 AM

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Our last front or center loaded winter was 16-17. A bit of bad luck to get two backloaded winters in a row but I hope 2019-20 breaks the trend.

 

December 2017 had below average temps. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#45
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2019 - 11:42 AM

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Some very light showers about to move into the east Portland metro area. Hoping to see some thunderstorms later. Was nice to see the 12z Euro trend wetter for much of the region the next three days.

73 and clouding up a bit currently after a low of 58.

#46
Jginmartini

Posted 01 July 2019 - 11:46 AM

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Got a paddle in before we were chased off the river
Currently rumbling and enjoying the good life

Attached Files


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Arctic air event 12/24/2018 7:08pm DENIED!!!

#47
Phil

Posted 01 July 2019 - 11:55 AM

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Really could be a lot worse at this point. I like how the dome of heat keeps getting relegated to the long range. Fully expect July to end up warmer than average, but maybe not as crazy as recent years.

B6EFD5CE-08C0-4512-B681-9400E8D4D194.png


And it wasn’t long ago models had the pattern flipping to persistently warm right as we turned over the calandar to July. Now that’s been muted upon closing.

It was the other way around for most of the last six years.

#48
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2019 - 11:58 AM

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And it wasn’t long ago models had the pattern flipping to persistently warm right as we turned over the calandar to July. Now that’s been muted upon closing.

It was the other way around for most of the last six years.


Yeah. Hoping this is could be a lasting warm season shift but I am pretty gun shy. There have been multiple false starts the last several years, only to have the recurrent warm/dry regime rear its ugly head again and again.



#49
Phil

Posted 01 July 2019 - 11:59 AM

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Looks like our annual mid-July to mid-August perma-ridge starts locking in at hour 240 on the 12z Euro.

Very pleasant run before that though.


Eh..not a perma ridge, and it may end up flatter/more suppressed in reality, with more westerly flow @ 500mb over the PNW (in the relatively brief window that the 4CH is amped, timed to the CCKW/EPAC tropical activity).

Forcing returns to the EHEM/W-IPWP later this month, which argues in favor of transience.
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#50
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2019 - 12:04 PM

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Only two 90+ days in the barrel so far at PDX moving into July. Counting today, that it the least to date at this point in the season since 2012 (warm seasons 2014 and 2013 also only had two as of 6/30, but both hit 90+ on 7/1).


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