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July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

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#51
Phil

Posted 01 July 2019 - 12:38 PM

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Six FEET of hail? DaFuk?

https://abcnews.go.c...5_null_card_hed
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#52
Phil

Posted 01 July 2019 - 12:49 PM

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I presume flash flooding could have produced the majority of those hail drifts (if that’s what they were). Hard to believe that much hail fell at once.
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#53
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 July 2019 - 12:52 PM

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75F and sunny for the Canada day festivities st Shawnigan Lake. Perfect for just about everyone. The lake looks a bit crowded if boating is your style though.

#54
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2019 - 01:45 PM

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Up to 77 here. Some nice cumulus building here and there, but most of the activity seems to be sticking to the Cascades at the moment. Hoping for something fun later this afternoon/evening.

#55
Phil

Posted 01 July 2019 - 01:50 PM

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The Pacific forcing affecting the pattern now (WP effects on the PNW still lagged at this time of year) will continue for another week before the EHEM component becomes more dominant. So accounting for structural lag, there is possibly a decipherable timeline.

Good reason to believe (given structure of AAM and seasonal wavetrain climo) the ridgy pattern depicted on the modeling will be transient and out of the picture sometime in late July.

ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif
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#56
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 July 2019 - 02:30 PM

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How was the weekend trip?   Weather sure worked out great!

 

It was alright, thanks for asking. I ended up getting a 24-hour stomach flu on Saturday, so that was absolutely horrible. But Sunday I felt a little better and it was flat-out gorgeous that day so it ended up working out OK. 

 

Kiddo had a bunch of fun. The lake was still pretty cold but he and his cousins didn't seem to mind. Lots of skiers and tubers out. Wake-surfing is a huge thing on Ohop so there was a lot of that as well. 



#57
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2019 - 02:40 PM

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It was alright, thanks for asking. I ended up getting a 24-hour stomach flu on Saturday, so that was absolutely horrible. But Sunday I felt a little better and it was flat-out gorgeous that day so it ended up working out OK. 

 

Kiddo had a bunch of fun. The lake was still pretty cold but he and his cousins didn't seem to mind. Lots of skiers and tubers out. Wake-surfing is a huge thing on Ohop so there was a lot of that as well. 

 

 

That sucks.    At least the weather was perfect... it seemed pretty hopeless earlier last week.

 

Lake Samammish was really nice yesterday.    The water did not seem cold at all... water temp was probably in the low 70s but the air temp was warm so it felt great.   Ohop probably has more runoff from Rainier?



#58
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2019 - 02:41 PM

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Weird.
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#59
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2019 - 02:47 PM

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Looks like a few cells firing over Washington County now.
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#60
Timmy_Supercell

Posted 01 July 2019 - 02:49 PM

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Seems to be particularly difficult for southern OR to get a good setup for convection this year.

 

I know it's only the first of July but some years here I'd already have at least a couple solid to almost severe kind of t'storms well before the fireworks.


Weather Data for Klamath Falls, OR

-------------------------------------------------------------------

Snowfall (with % of seasonal average)

 

2010-2011 - 58.20" (161%)
2011-2012 - 49.00" (136%)
2012-2013 - 16.70" (46%)
2013-2014 - 9.05" (25%)
2014-2015 - 2.90" (8%)
2015-2016 - 54.45" (151%)
2016-2017 - 63.00" (175%)
2017-2018 - 18.10" (50%)
 
2018-2019 - 52.30" (145%)
 
Nov '18 - 00.20" (5%)
Dec '18 - 05.80" (58%)
Jan '19 - 09.50(80%)
Feb '19 - 27.50" (306%)
Mar '19 - 09.00" (360%)
Apr '19 - 0.30" (30%)
 
2019-2020 - 12.00"
 
Nov '19 - 06.50" (163%)
Dec '19 - 05.50"
Jan '20 -
Feb '20 -
Mar '20 -
Apr '20 -
 
2019 Thunderstorms: 14
04/02, 04/19, 05/28, 05/31, 06/01
06/12, 06/28, 07/14, 08/09, 08/10
08/28, 09/05, 09/15, 09/16
Hailstorms: 05/28 (1/4")
Severe Wind: 0
 
Top 5 Daily Snows: 12.40" (01/03/2017), 8.20" (11/23/2010), 7.50" (12/13/2015), 6.60" (02/07/2017), 6.20" (03/10/2019)
Honorable Mention: 6.00" (03/20/2012), 6.00" (02/28/2012), 5.70" (12/14/2016), 5.50" (01/18/2012)
Max Depths: 21.00" (01/07/2017), 18.00" (12/24/2015), 11.00" (11/23/2010), 9.50" (02/27/2019), 9.00" (02/28/2012)
 
T'storm Days: 14 (2019), 16 (2018), 11 (2017), 12 (2016), 20 (2015), 21 (2014), 16 (2013), 2 (2012), 12 (2011) / 1980-2015 Avg = 12 T'storm Days
Severe T'storms: 5 (08/10/2019), (08/08/2017), (07/24/2017), (01/19/2016), (08/05/2012) 
"Almost" Severe: 2 (08/10/2017), (05/04/2016)
Vicinity Severe T'storms (close enough to hear, with official severe reports)
(06/26/2017), (08/05/2016), (07/09/2015), (07/05/2015), (06/09/2015), (08/05/2014), (08/04/2014), (08/22/2013), (08/12/2013), (09/12/2011), (09/04/2011)

 


#61
hawkstwelve

Posted 01 July 2019 - 03:12 PM

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That sucks.    At least the weather was perfect... it seemed pretty hopeless earlier last week.

 

Lake Samammish was really nice yesterday.    The water did not seem cold at all... water temp was probably in the low 70s but the air temp was warm so it felt great.   Ohop probably has more runoff from Rainier?

 

Yeah Ohop Creek feeds the south end of the lake, which is a branch off the Nisqually coming from Mt. Rainier. It gets fairly warm later in the summer, as it's not that deep of a lake, but it takes a little bit to get there.

 

We will be going back again at the end of this month and it will probably be much warmer by then.



#62
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2019 - 03:32 PM

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SEA at 81... RNT at 82 and BFI at 81.  

 

81 here as well.   Beautiful day.


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#63
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 July 2019 - 03:33 PM

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Strong thunderstorm right now about to hit Hillsboro. I'm off this week for Independence Day so I won't be able to experience it unless it survives as it moves east.

sWmlxEo.jpg
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Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#64
nwsnow

Posted 01 July 2019 - 03:39 PM

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Getting a pretty direct hit from this cell on the west side. Pretty frequent lightning. 

Just love the smell of summer rain and those rumbles! :)


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#65
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2019 - 03:42 PM

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Yeah Ohop Creek feeds the south end of the lake, which is a branch off the Nisqually coming from Mt. Rainier. It gets fairly warm later in the summer, as it's not that deep of a lake, but it takes a little bit to get there.

 

We will be going back again at the end of this month and it will probably be much warmer by then.

 

 

Lake Sammamish is probably deeper... but its a warm lake.    

 

Lake Washington is at 70 now and Lake Sammamish is usually 3-4 degrees warmer.   



#66
K%%

Posted 01 July 2019 - 03:48 PM

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Sky looks very ominous to the west...


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"Man is made by his beliefs. As he believes, so he is."

 

-Bhagavad Gita

 

"The way I look at it, as long as you make it out of a battle alive, you're one step closer to fulfilling your dream."

 

-Seifer Almasy (VIII)


#67
K%%

Posted 01 July 2019 - 03:50 PM

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web_metroradar.jpg


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"Man is made by his beliefs. As he believes, so he is."

 

-Bhagavad Gita

 

"The way I look at it, as long as you make it out of a battle alive, you're one step closer to fulfilling your dream."

 

-Seifer Almasy (VIII)


#68
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 July 2019 - 03:50 PM

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Hillsboro getting clobbered right now.

V9EgiHm.jpg
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Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#69
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2019 - 03:53 PM

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Hillsboro getting clobbered right now.

V9EgiHm.jpg

 

 

Its barely moving as well.  


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#70
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 July 2019 - 03:53 PM

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Sky looks very ominous to the west...


I hope this thunderstorm survives as it moves east.

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#71
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 July 2019 - 03:55 PM

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Its barely moving as well.


Yeah, moving at a snail's pace.

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#72
Sounder

Posted 01 July 2019 - 03:56 PM

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Wouldn't be surprised if that thunderstorm near Hillsboro gets severe warned shortly. NWS just put out a special weather statement saying it's producing dime sized hail.


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#73
K%%

Posted 01 July 2019 - 03:56 PM

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https://twitter.com/...843123106406400


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"Man is made by his beliefs. As he believes, so he is."

 

-Bhagavad Gita

 

"The way I look at it, as long as you make it out of a battle alive, you're one step closer to fulfilling your dream."

 

-Seifer Almasy (VIII)


#74
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2019 - 03:59 PM

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I hope this thunderstorm survives as it moves east.


It isn’t going to move east. The flow is generally out of the SSE right now.

Although there may be more development to the east.
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#75
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:01 PM

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81 at PDX so far today. The last three days have really overachieved for warmth considering we are in a generally troughy pattern at 500mb. Of course this time of year surface details often drive the boat.
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#76
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:01 PM

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Wouldn't be surprised if that thunderstorm near Hillsboro gets severe warned shortly. NWS just put out a special weather statement saying it's producing dime sized hail.


Wow! 😨

VdnlIGZ.jpg

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#77
K%%

Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:03 PM

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It is really ominous, lights are flickering and winds are gusty. This thing is pretty far away too, but I can swear the air is a lot more thick.


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"Man is made by his beliefs. As he believes, so he is."

 

-Bhagavad Gita

 

"The way I look at it, as long as you make it out of a battle alive, you're one step closer to fulfilling your dream."

 

-Seifer Almasy (VIII)


#78
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:04 PM

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Hwy 26 must be at a standstill right now.

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#79
K%%

Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:10 PM

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It's still holding together, huh. Seems like this is expanding quite a bit too.


"Man is made by his beliefs. As he believes, so he is."

 

-Bhagavad Gita

 

"The way I look at it, as long as you make it out of a battle alive, you're one step closer to fulfilling your dream."

 

-Seifer Almasy (VIII)


#80
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:10 PM

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Just started raining big fat drops here. Could be stuff developing right on top of us. Sky looks pretty ominous to the west.
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#81
Sounder

Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:13 PM

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Just started raining big fat drops here. Could be stuff developing right on top of us. Sky looks pretty ominous to the west.

Yup, looks like a 50-55dbz cell just popped out of nowhere over N Portland, and some more to the NE in Vancouver. Fun day down there!


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#82
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:21 PM

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A ton of lightning in Washington County. ⚡

wdDsUVe.jpg

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#83
K%%

Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:23 PM

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A ton of lighting in Washington County. ⚡

wdDsUVe.jpg

 

I love how it seems to expanding as time goes on.


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"Man is made by his beliefs. As he believes, so he is."

 

-Bhagavad Gita

 

"The way I look at it, as long as you make it out of a battle alive, you're one step closer to fulfilling your dream."

 

-Seifer Almasy (VIII)


#84
Omegaraptor

Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:29 PM

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How lovely. Missing me by 5 miles. Yippee.
No rain here until Hour 258.

#85
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:30 PM

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I love how it seems to expanding as time goes on.

 

 

Yeah... it expanded way east and is also a little farther west at the same time.


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#86
K%%

Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:30 PM

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How lovely. Missing me by 5 miles. Yippee.

 

More development on the west side. Didn't you get a crazy thunderstorm last week?  :P But I'm sure you'll get at least some thunder and rain, if not more.


"Man is made by his beliefs. As he believes, so he is."

 

-Bhagavad Gita

 

"The way I look at it, as long as you make it out of a battle alive, you're one step closer to fulfilling your dream."

 

-Seifer Almasy (VIII)


#87
TT-SEA

Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:32 PM

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Looks like an ugly winter day in Portland!

 

005vc00050.jpg



#88
K%%

Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:34 PM

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https://twitter.com/...852595983880192


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"Man is made by his beliefs. As he believes, so he is."

 

-Bhagavad Gita

 

"The way I look at it, as long as you make it out of a battle alive, you're one step closer to fulfilling your dream."

 

-Seifer Almasy (VIII)


#89
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:34 PM

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Just heard thunder here.

#90
Deweydog

Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:35 PM

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Boltz.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#91
Omegaraptor

Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:40 PM

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My guess is that my house doesn’t see one single drop of rain tonight. And not until September.
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No rain here until Hour 258.

#92
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:40 PM

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Now raining torrentially with frequent thunder and lightning. That was quick.
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#93
K%%

Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:41 PM

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My guess is that my house doesn’t see one single drop of rain tonight. And not until September.

 

Have you thought about taking a drive over to Hillsboro and experiencing it firsthand?


"Man is made by his beliefs. As he believes, so he is."

 

-Bhagavad Gita

 

"The way I look at it, as long as you make it out of a battle alive, you're one step closer to fulfilling your dream."

 

-Seifer Almasy (VIII)


#94
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:42 PM

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Wind is picking up now. Almost a little brother version of last Wednesday’s storm.
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#95
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:43 PM

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I love how it seems to expanding as time goes on.

Yeah... it expanded way east and is also a little farther west at the same time.


Yeah, what a way to welcome in July. ⚡

BasWG5k.jpg

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#96
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:45 PM

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Just had some 35-40mph winds from the west with heavy rain. Wow.
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#97
Eujunga

Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:46 PM

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No rain down here but part of that may be because convection is inhibited by a persistent marine layer. I keep waiting for it to burn off but it doesn’t look like it’s going to. Midnight high of 62 degrees so far here which is almost as amazing as the t-storm up north.

Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#98
Jesse

Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:50 PM

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Winds have gone ape sh*t here.
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#99
Deweydog

Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:51 PM

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https://m.youtube.co...h?v=FONN-0uoTHI
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All roads lead to Walgreens.  


#100
K%%

Posted 01 July 2019 - 04:51 PM

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Winds have gone ape sh*t here.


This is a treat even not actually getting any rain- the sky is absolutely gorgeous and the crows know that something’s up.
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"Man is made by his beliefs. As he believes, so he is."

 

-Bhagavad Gita

 

"The way I look at it, as long as you make it out of a battle alive, you're one step closer to fulfilling your dream."

 

-Seifer Almasy (VIII)