July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[TT-SEA]

Troughy day here...

 

[Phil]

We had a string of chilly-ish falls 2008-10. Definitely not torches.

 

It makes me happy to see you’re already setting up a “something weird could happen” caveat to fall back on if the forecast busts, though.

We’re like 3-4 months out. To be confident without reservation now would be stupid and meritless.

 

I’m reasonably confident in the warmer WPAC/cooler EPAC setup across the tropical Pacific. The QBO is also largely set in stone. If that were the entire story, it would be easier.

 

But add in the area of warm subsurface water south of the equator propagating towards the SE-Pacific, the deep solar minimum, and the transitioning PMM (among a multitude of other factors) and its not an easy forecast at all.

[TT-SEA]

No changes on the 12Z EPS.   

 

850mb temps go above normal around day 8 (7/22) and stay there through the end of the run... and timing is moving up accordingly.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[TigerWoodsLibido]

What?   

 

This is just a stupid post.   First and foremost... I want more sun.    

 

As a secondary wish... it would be nice to have a heat spike in July to make it feel more complete.     I don't care nearly as much about this as more sun though.    Are we only allowed to have one single weather wish??   That is big trouble for many of us!

 

A day like today is absolutely perfect.   Classic summer day here.     Today is exactly what I would love for the vast majority of summer.   It does not get any better.   Not that nature gives a crap... but you seem to be very focused on my desires.

 

And this is the current pattern... NOT. A. RIDGE.    

 

You post more than anyone here by a significant margin. How are we not supposed to focus on your desires when you share them constantly?

[Jesse]

Matt, lil help?

[TT-SEA]

You post more than anyone here by a significant margin. How are we not supposed to focus on your desires when you share them constantly?

 

 

I think you want cold anomalies through March... please God!!   

[Omegaraptor]

I want 7" of precipitation or more every month from November to February to make up for what was lost from May 2017 to now. And of course, loads of snow in the Cascades. At least one regional arctic blast would be great as well.

[TT-SEA]

I want 7" of precipitation or more every month from November to February to make up for what was lost from May 2017 to now. And of course, loads of snow in the Cascades. At least one regional arctic blast would be great as well.

 

 

Thankfully you will likely not get your wish.  

[Jesse]

Trouble in paradise!

[TT-SEA]

2 for 1 today:

 

8-15 day mean:

 

 

 

10-15 day mean:

 

[Omegaraptor]

Gross.   And depressing.  

 

Thankfully you will likely not get your wish.  

 

Another reason I want so much precipitation. To see you cry about getting rainstorms stronger than Portland can dream of.

 

Same reason I want California to have a record dry winter. Hopefully that'll get them to stop complaining for the same reason, getting repeatedly drenched by amazing rainstorms while we're stuck in shittsville splitsville. Pissed me off to no end last winter.

[TT-SEA]

Trouble in paradise!

 

 

I think he wants a 1998-99 repeat.   I would not like it... but more power to him if he wants that. 

 

Here is Justin's take:

 

 

1998-99 wasn't really excellent, unless you're talking about above 3500'. In the lowlands, it rained literally nonstop for 20 straight weeks aside from the one merciful five day stretch of arctic air.

 

[Jesse]

I think he wants a 1998-99 repeat. I would not like it... but more power to him if he wants that.

 

Here is Justin's take:

Good thing you don’t get wrapped around the axle about other’s opinions like some people. <_>

[TT-SEA]

Another reason I want so much precipitation. To see you cry about getting rainstorms stronger than Portland can dream of.

 

Same reason I want California to have a record dry winter. Hopefully that'll get them to stop complaining for the same reason, getting repeatedly drenched by amazing rainstorms while we're stuck in shittsville splitsville.

 

 

I value summer way more than winter.    We have more trips than usual planned this winter... and we are starting in November.  

 

Last winter was actually quite enjoyable though.    Except for the snowy excess on a couple days in February.     Oct - Dec was perfectly normal here in terms of total rain and days with rain and it was quite nice.   Lots of breaks with offshore flow and sunshine between the rainy periods.    Normal fall and winter weather is perfectly fine with me.  

[Phil]

2 for 1 today:

 

8-15 day mean:

 

 

 

10-15 day mean:

 

I’d be careful before pimping this one.

 

Not that it won’t happen, but I don’t think it’s going to last as long as you think it will.

[Phil]

I think he wants a 1998-99 repeat. I would not like it... but more power to him if he wants that.

 

Here is Justin's take:

I actually agree with you here. Why root for zonal flow instead continental arctic air masses and snowfall?

 

Makes zero sense.

[Omegaraptor]

I value summer way more than winter.    We have more trips than usual planned this winter... and we are starting in November.  

 

Last winter was actually quite enjoyable though.    Except for the snowy excess on a couple days in February.     Oct-Dec was perfectly normal here in terms of total rain and days with rain and it was quite nice.   Lots of breaks with offshore flow and sunshine between the rainy periods.    Normal fall and winter weather is perfectly fine with me.  

 

Last winter was horrible here. Desiccated blowtorch until February 1, pointless dry cold and disappointment after disappointment after February 1. The most interesting event of February 2019 for me was the 1.9" of rain in one day on 2/12.

 

We got screwed by the storm train in November so our precipitation was well below average.

[TT-SEA]

Last winter was horrible here. Desiccated blowtorch until February 1, pointless dry cold and disappointment after disappointment after February 1. The most interesting event of February 2019 for me was the 1.9" of rain in one day on 2/12.

 

We got screwed by the storm train in November so our precipitation was well below average.

 

 

Oh well.   

[TT-SEA]

I’d be careful before pimping this one.

 

Not that it won’t happen, but I don’t think it’s going to last as long as you think it will.

 

 

I don't really care that much... weak troughing is fine as well.    I am just hoping for a little heat spike for the novelty.

[Phil]

So Omegaraptor prefers Pacific Air to Arctic Air?

 

He and I are not going to get along.

[Omegaraptor]

I actually agree with you here. Why root for zonal flow instead continental arctic air masses and snowfall?

 

Makes zero sense.

 

Mt Baker got 95 FEET of snow in 1998-99. That's the literal world record for most snowfall in one season period.

 

Do I really need to say more? I'd really like some Arctic Blasts this winter, but 1998-99 is infinitely better than a typical desiccated blowtorch.

[Phil]

Mt Baker got 95 FEET of snow in 1998-99. That's the literal world record for most snowfall in one season period.

 

Do I really need to say more? I'd really like some Arctic Blasts this winter, but 1998-99 is infinitely better than a typical desiccated blowtorch.

Do you live on the summit of Mt. Baker? Why the hell do you care if you can’t experience it?

 

Or, if it’s just a numbers thing for you, why do you b*tch about cloudy summers? It’s bound to be hot somewhere else and you can swoon over those numbers instead of the mediocrity in your own backyard.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

2 for 1 today:

 

8-15 day mean:

 

 

 

10-15 day mean:

 

Looking good.

[TT-SEA]

Mt Baker got 95 FEET of snow in 1998-99. That's the literal world record for most snowfall in one season period.

 

Do I really need to say more? I'd really like some Arctic Blasts this winter, but 1998-99 is infinitely better than a typical desiccated blowtorch.

 

 

Do you live at Mt Baker?

 

I don't the folks that work up there would want a repeat.     They could not stay open... too much snow.  

[Omegaraptor]

Do you live on the summit of Mt. Baker? Why the hell do you care if you can’t experience it?

 

Or, if it’s just a numbers thing for you, why do you b*tch about cloudy summers? It’s bound to be hot somewhere else and you can fawn over those numbers instead of the mediocrity in your own backyard.

 

Yes, because Mt Baker was the only mountain in the Cascades that got a good amount of snowfall in 1998-99.     

 

Every single mountain in the Cascades had an exceptional 1998-99 season. Timberline had its heaviest year on record bar none, and it's not hard to think that the other two Mt Hood resorts were the same. That is, of course, the mountain I actually do go to in order to ski in winter. Many times per winter, in fact.

[TT-SEA]

Do you live on the summit of Mt. Baker? Why the hell do you care if you can’t experience it?

 

 

 

We posted the same thing at the same time.  

 

Dude wants it to rain every day for 8 months straight and then be 100 degrees for 4 months.     

[James Jones]

I feel like we're a couple months away from Omegaraptor complaining about how stupid and annoying it is that days are always 24 hours long and that daylight always bottoms out on December 21st.

[Deweydog]

Keep fighting the good fight Omegaraptor! Like what you wanna like and don’t kowtow to these weather Trumpists! Celebrate diversity!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Jesse]

[Omegaraptor]

We posted the same thing at the same time.  

 

Dude wants it to rain every day for 8 months straight and then be 100 degrees for 4 months.     

 

No, I don't. I appreciate some dry weather in fall and spring as long as it's not streaky. Winter should be mostly rainy with some snow and arctic air thrown in, preferably in December and January.

 

I don't want 100 degrees in summer, either. The current forecast is great. I just dislike low 70s and cloudy weather in what's supposed to be midsummer. I also disliked the neverending heat of 2018 and I would have complained had I been on this forum last year.

[Jesse]

No, I don't. I appreciate some dry weather in fall and spring as long as it's not streaky. Winter should be mostly rainy with some snow and arctic air thrown in, preferably in December and January.

 

I don't want 100 degrees in summer, either. The current forecast is great. I just dislike low 70s and cloudy weather in what's supposed to be midsummer. I also disliked the neverending heat of 2018 and I would have complained had I been on this forum last year.

Kinda seems like you just complain about whatever is happening currently or has happened in the recent past.

[TT-SEA]

Kinda seems like you just complain about whatever is happening currently or has happened in the recent past.

Anthony!

[Omegaraptor]

I mean, it is pretty infuriating that we haven't had a good winter since 2016-17 and even our wet seasons have been dry.

 

I just want a wet winter. In the Pacific Northwest, which for some bizarre reason is incapable of delivering one. Might as well live east of the Cascades, at least they get more snow and thunderstorms over there.

[TT-SEA]

I mean, it is pretty infuriating that we haven't had a good winter since 2016-17 and even our wet seasons have been dry.

 

I just want a wet winter. In the Pacific Northwest, which for some bizarre reason is incapable of delivering one. Might as well live east of the Cascades, at least they get more snow and thunderstorms over there.

Two wettest winters in Seattle history back to back in 2015-16 and 2016-17. Amazing stuff... not likely to be repeated.

[Phil]

I mean, it is pretty infuriating that we haven't had a good winter since 2016-17 and even our wet seasons have been dry.

 

I just want a wet winter. In the Pacific Northwest, which for some bizarre reason is incapable of delivering one. Might as well live east of the Cascades, at least they get more snow and thunderstorms over there.

Uh, 2017/18 and 2018/19 were both “good” winters regionally. Or, at least they weren’t bad.

 

The last “bad” winter was 2015/16.

[Omegaraptor]

I will stop complaining now and get back to weather discussion.

 

Looks like the whole “unusually warm nights” pattern is probably coming to an end soon.

[Phil]

I will stop complaining now and get back to weather discussion.

 

Looks like the whole “unusually warm nights” pattern is probably coming to an end soon.

FWIW, precipitation has been around average over the last five years.

 

So there’s nothing to complain about.

 

[Jesse]

FWIW, precipitation has been around average over the last five years.

 

So there’s nothing to complain about.

 

Tim?