July 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Nice day here in Jackson County. Another great pic from the hike last night. 

 

[TT-SEA]

Alls I know is there’s problems here and the problem with it is that people have a problem with the guy causing problems. And to me, that’s a problem.

Good Lord.

 

Its been cloudier than normal. No need to spend 20 pages telling me it hasn't. Pretty simple. Its still true.

 

I am not attacking or belittling anyone.

[Jesse]

Good Lord.

 

Its been cloudier than normal. No need to spend 20 pages telling me it hasn't. Pretty simple. Its still true.

 

I am not attacking or belittling anyone.

 

Innocent angel.

 

In all honesty I don't think there was much attacking or belittling going on from anybody with the last discussion. Drawn out debate but mostly weather related. Matt says he wants a little more action/drama next time. 4/10.

[Deweydog]

IT JUST CONTINUES!!!

 

MY OH MY!!!!!!

 

(sorry jesse it’s kind of a baseball reference)

[Timmy Supercell]

September is part of meteorological autumn.

 

Doesn't the meteorological water year begin October 1st? 

[Jesse]

Doesn't the meteorological water year begin October 1st?

Isn’t Rosh Hashanah usually in late September? Are leap years usually election years too?

[Omegaraptor]

Seasonal lag!

[TT-SEA]

And then you have Phil who has a vendetta against me because I don't hate ridging.

 

I live in an area that has dry weather on about 50% of the days in the year on average.    I enjoy those days.   The most efficient way to get those days is with some kind of ridging.    So I am not opposed to ridging.  I even embrace it.   

 

He lives in an area where ridging in the warm season means he melts.   He prefers troughing in the warm season.  Make sense.   I don't hate him for always cheering for warm season troughing.   It makes sense to me.   I don't troll him about the ridging that seems to happen all summer there.

 

But what I get is a constant barrage of BS... how I should expect every day to be cloudy and dreary and embrace it.   And how seeing the sun just 10% of the time in the last month (in the summer) will seem like a dream when its 0% for many years in a row to come.   In fact... the Earth will likely tilt just to ensure that the sun never even rises here in the summer.   Get out now!!   How dare I appreciate the normal 50% of the days without rain here.   I am guess I am evil for some reason for that.  

[Jesse]

IT JUST CONTINUES!!!

 

MY OH MY!!!!!!

 

 

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Doesn't the meteorological water year begin October 1st?

Yeah, October 1st to September 30th of the following year.

[TT-SEA]

 

IT JUST CONTINUES!!!

 

MY OH MY!!!!!!

 

 

The Phil crap is far more annoying than anything else. You at least have a very good understanding of our climate.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

July thread going full November.

[Deweydog]

Didn’t Kurt Cobain commit suicide in April?

[Jesse]

Didn’t Kurt Cobain commit suicide in April?

Just 7 years, five months and 6 days before 9/11! Haha, 9/11...

[Deweydog]

Just 7 years, five months and 6 days before 9/11! Haha, 9/11...

Sure did get cloudy in Lower Manhattan that day...

 

Jelly!!!

[TT-SEA]

July thread going full November.

Very simple:

 

1) My area is dry on average 50% of the days annually.

 

2) I like those days.

 

3) Ridging usually means dry weather in the warm season.

 

4) Therefore... I like ridging in the warm season.

 

Phil hates that I feel this way... for some strange reason. No idea how it effects him.

[Phil]

Big improvements on the 12Z ECMWF for the middle of next week compared to its 00Z run.

 

Surface maps show Tuesday-Thursday being sunnier and warmer than the 00Z run.

 

That trough coming down from Alaska is looking much more robust... which helps pull the troughing a little more westward than previous runs.

But what does a larger GOA trough indicate in the long run as that CCKW crosses the Pacific and divergence establishes more profusely in the IO/Africa sector?

 

The more I analyze the mean system state, the more it seems these long range heat spikes are false flags and inevitably get taken away as time closes.

[Deweydog]

Very simple:

 

1) My area is dry on average 50% of the days annually.

 

2) I like those days.

 

3) Ridging usually means dry weather in the warm season.

 

4) Therefore... I like ridging in the warm season.

 

Phil hates that I feel this way... for some strange reason.

You’re an easy target. Phil pheeds on it.

[TT-SEA]

But what does a larger GOA trough indicate in the long run as that CCKW crosses the Pacific and divergence establishes more profusely in the IO/Africa sector?

 

The more I analyze the mean system state, the more it seems these long range heat spikes are false flags and inevitably get taken away as time closes.

Probably... fine by me as long as we get a decent amount of sun for the rest of the summer.

[Phil]

And then you have Phil who has a vendetta against me because I don't hate ridging.

 

I live in an area that has dry weather on about 50% of the days in the year on average. I enjoy those days. The most efficient way to get those days is with some kind of ridging. So I am not opposed to ridging. I even embrace it.

 

He lives in an area where ridging in the warm season means he melts. He prefers troughing in the warm season. Make sense. I don't hate him for always cheering for warm season troughing. It makes sense to me. I don't troll him about the ridging that seems to happen all summer there.

 

But what I get is a constant barrage of BS... how I should expect every day to be cloudy and dreary and embrace it. And how seeing the sun just 10% of the time in the last month (in the summer) will seem like a dream when its 0% for many years in a row to come. In fact... the Earth will likely tilt just to ensure that the sun never even rises here in the summer. Get out now!! How dare I appreciate the normal 50% of the days without rain here. I am guess I am evil for some reason for that.

Rofl. I love you, man.

[TT-SEA]

66 and partly cloudy here.

 

Well below normal... and a beautiful day.

[MossMan]

If there was a problem, yo I’ll solve it. Check out the hook while my DJ (droppin’) revolves it.

I wonder what DJ Droppin is up to these days...

[MossMan]

IT JUST CONTINUES!!!

 

MY OH MY!!!!!!

 

(sorry jesse it’s kind of a baseball reference)

Too soon. RIP Dave Niehaus.

ITS GRAND SALAMI TIME!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Big improvements on the 12Z ECMWF for the middle of next week compared to its 00Z run.

 

Surface maps show Tuesday-Thursday being sunnier and warmer than the 00Z run.

 

That trough coming down from Alaska is looking much more robust... which helps pull the troughing a little more westward than previous runs.

I like the sound of that.

[Phil]

Solid QBO reference for anyone interested.

 

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html#tomso3latlat

 

The best structural matches to 2019 (so far) are 1985, 1995, 2002, 2004, and to a lesser extent 1980, 1990, and 1993 (which are higher in solar activity).

 

Best solar matches are 1985, 1995, and 2004. Best ENSO matches probably anything with a warm WPAC/cool EPAC structure (don’t have time to verify them all).

[Phil]

https://www.northbendweather.com/wxraindetail.php?r=wxraindetail.php

 

Totals thru July 18, 2019:

Days of Rain: 99

Total Days: 199

% of Dry Days: 50.3%

 

Looks like this year is typical so far!

Uh oh. Prepare for an earful.

[MossMan]

That'll do! As long as I'm in the middle!

Jesse has already reserved that spot, sorry.

[ShawniganLake]

Happy October 17th everyone!

 

Note: The dead grass on the left was from the owner spraying roundup. Hopefully he is up to date on his testicular cancer insurance.

I have heard that the sun also causes cancer. As does BBQ food.

[Front Ranger]

Who actually designates themselves the voice of reason? Weird...

 

Someone who takes themselves VERY seriously. And is weird.

 

Also, "Forum Fantastic" was already taken.

[Front Ranger]

Isn’t Rosh Hashanah usually in late September? Are leap years usually election years too?

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2069-merry-christmas-from-hallmark-channel/

[Front Ranger]

And then you have Phil who has a vendetta against me because I don't hate ridging.

 

I live in an area that has dry weather on about 50% of the days in the year on average.    I enjoy those days.   The most efficient way to get those days is with some kind of ridging.    So I am not opposed to ridging.  I even embrace it.   

 

He lives in an area where ridging in the warm season means he melts.   He prefers troughing in the warm season.  Make sense.   I don't hate him for always cheering for warm season troughing.   It makes sense to me.   I don't troll him about the ridging that seems to happen all summer there.

 

But what I get is a constant barrage of BS... how I should expect every day to be cloudy and dreary and embrace it.   And how seeing the sun just 10% of the time in the last month (in the summer) will seem like a dream when its 0% for many years in a row to come.   In fact... the Earth will likely tilt just to ensure that the sun never even rises here in the summer.   Get out now!!   How dare I appreciate the normal 50% of the days without rain here.   I am guess I am evil for some reason for that.  

 

http://theweatherforums.com/index.php/topic/2069-merry-christmas-from-hallmark-channel/

[TT-SEA]

https://www.northbendweather.com/wxraindetail.php?r=wxraindetail.php

 

Totals thru July 18, 2019:

Days of Rain: 99

Total Days: 199

% of Dry Days: 50.3%

 

Looks like this year is typical so far!

 

 

It has been.   In fact I am surprised that its not even higher this year considering that there were so many dry days in February and March.

 

And I like the dry days.  Best way to get those days in our area in the warm season is with some type of ridging.    So therefore... I am not opposed to ridging here in North Bend.   I even like ridging here.   Shocker!    

 

Phil hates that.   He takes his climate and applies it to my preferences and then attacks me endlessly.   He also tells us that it is normally cloudy and raining here about 100% of the time... its just been unusually nice for a couple years.  But that 50% average is based on 100+ years of data.   

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Jesse has already reserved that spot, sorry.

Dang it! Jesse can have it then.

[Guest CulverJosh]

Random thought. I was barbecuing last night and something occured to me. I use a lighter full of lighter fluid to make fire that lights the lighter fluid that makes fire to burn my charcoal. Weird.

[Omegaraptor]

Solid QBO reference for anyone interested.

https://acd-ext.gsfc.nasa.gov/Data_services/met/qbo/qbo.html#tomso3latlat

The best structural matches to 2019 (so far) are 1985, 1995, 2002, 2004, and to a lesser extent 1980, 1990, and 1993 (which are higher in solar activity).

Best solar matches are 1985, 1995, and 2004. Best ENSO matches probably anything with a warm WPAC/cool EPAC structure (don’t have time to verify them all).

Encouraging to see 1985 and 1995 brought up. They were both Niña winters though, if I’m correct.

 

On the other hand, discouraging to see 2002 brought up.

[Jesse]

Someone who takes themselves VERY seriously. And is weird.

 

Also, "Forum Fantastic" was already taken.

Making sure people don’t think I take myself too seriously is a VERY serious matter.

[TT-SEA]

Per Phil... you think seeing the sun just 10% of the time in the summer is bad?   Going back to normal soon... 0% of the time!   Maybe negative.  Nuclear winter is coming!  Get out!!!!  

 

How dare you expect 50% based on 100+ years of data. 

[Jesse]

Phuck you, Fil!!!

[TT-SEA]

Phuck you, Fil!!!

Exactly.

[Jesse]

Exactly.

Now Phil just needs to like the post since he will realize I am actually subtly lending him support by framing things that way and the cycle will be complete.