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2019 Autumn & Winter Discussion


Tom

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Same here....hopefully, next year will be our Winter. I'll accept 6"+in a single storm and no questions asked.

 

I can't get a Watch OR Warn for 6" tho. Not outta my office, lol. So "no bueno" on that amigo

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I can't get a Watch OR Warn for 6" tho. Not outta my office, lol. So "no bueno" on that amigo

:huh: :lol:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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It is my own personal opinion, as I believe we are certainly entering a climatic shift and one that resembles historical periods of the past. The big "flip" in the modeling of a potential neutral ENSO event or La Nada for the Autumn gives me credence that the idea not only the Arctic will rapidly cool off this Autumn/Winter, but moreso, we will see a favorable hemispheric North American Vortex take shape in both Oct/Nov. The maps below will verify my thoughts that I had earlier in the Summer.

Based on your research, how far south will this early cool dip?

I'm wondering how soon Texas will see the back of this heat broken ?

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Andie, I'm not Tom, but if I had to throw an opinion in the hat, I'd say less than a month.

 

The problem here is that we may also see it bring a tropical system back towards you and myself in the latter ranges of this. These pattern realignments are tricky sometimes when the pattern becomes disconnected in late summer. This is the period, (Aug-1 through Oct-1) that I struggle with the most.

 

My opinion is that this cold front is a "leader" of sorts. We'll see.

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This front has been wonderful. I can certainly enjoy this where it might be a bit warm for my northern brothers.

 

I expect some tropical storms. Texas is used o them and in many ways, often breaks the back of our heat.

Hurricanes may be few this year for everyone.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Using maps from @BenNoll, more clues incoming for the new LRC pattern???  Here is a super blend of the ECMWF + UKMET...active storm track right across our Sub???  Tongue of cool from the TX Panhandle up into the GL's...interesting...

 

EAZn381UcAInAnG.jpg

 

 

 

EAZn5pbUYAEHjB0.jpg

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Using maps from @BenNoll, more clues incoming for the new LRC pattern??? Here is a super blend of the ECMWF + UKMET...active storm track right across our Sub??? Tongue of cool from the TX Panhandle up into the GL's...interesting...

 

EAZn381UcAInAnG.jpg

 

 

 

EAZn5pbUYAEHjB0.jpg

How about an autumn OctoBomb for 2019?

 

Loving what appears to be the early season storm track. So many very close but so far away situations last year. Heres to hoping that -NAO hangs around to help me out.

 

Jaster knows what kind of storm I'm talking about. An NW Texas/OK to great lakes special.

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After doing some quick analyzing of the current SST's, model data, and more specifically the overall N Hemisphere pattern, I am finding reasons that Autumn '19 is coming in fast and possibly hard this season.  Firstly, I want to compare our current ENSO state, to the year 2017, to which, both years resembled ENSO neutral conditions. 

 

Back in September 2017, the central PAC looks sorta similar to where we are now...

 

anomnight.9.4.2017.gif

 

 

Our current SST's...while we are only in very late July, forecast models suggest cooling to continue across the central PAC as we approach Sept.

 

anomnight.7.25.2019.gif

 

 

 

The big difference and what I believe will be the driver to our Autumn pattern in Sept, is the "warm blob" in the NE PAC.  Back in Sep '17, one can argue the N PAC is quite opposite to the current state of affairs.  If you look closely, the waters NW of Hawaii/South of Aleutians are cold presently and they were very warm in 2017.  Forecast models continue this SST pattern from August into Sept and pretty much throughout the entire cold season.  Why am I pointing this out?  Back in Sept '17, the nation east of the Rockies was relatively very warm.  In fact, I remember we had days in the 90's around here.  Reason being, those cooler waters in the NE PAC produced favorable conditions to keep troughs coming into NW NAMER which flooded the nation across the eastern CONUS with warmth.

 

 

Sep17TDeptUS.png

 

 

However, this year, I expect an entirely different pattern due to the SST's being quite opposite across the N PAC.  In fact, recent guidance is now suggesting a big trough to inundate the eastern 2/3 rd's of the nation.  Nearly all the variables one could imagine are pointing towards a short growing season, early frosts, active pattern, and possible first flakes up north???  The waters in the NE PAC are going to promote the NW NAMER ridge early and often this Autumn.

 

 

 

cfs-mon_01_z500a_namer_2.png

 

 

 

cfs-mon_01_apcpna_month_namer_2.png

 

My senses are being heightened and I foresee a fast start to Autumn, one we really have not seen since maybe 2014.  If the clues that I'm seeing continue, the new developing LRC in Oct/Nov will include blocking and an active northern stream along with some southern stream action later in November.  I think the blocking wanes in November, as the Vortex strengthens significantly across N Canada and the Arctic/Greenland regions.  This fits with the idea of the climatic changes I'm seeing evolving across the Arctic regions during the cold seasons of late and into the future.  There will be a period later in Autumn where I anticipate Indian Summer and it may very well be in November when I think the high lat blocking fades.  I really believe another spectacular weather pattern will be evolving across the central CONUS.  While we gear up for our last month of Summer, signals for Autumn starting early way up north across the Archipelago are already showing up in the extended.  A tell-tale sign that mother nature has something up her sleeves.

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 

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I'm finding this whole very early Texas cooling a bit unsettling. We were so cool this past week and the air so uncharacteristically dry compared to good old awful Gulf humidity standards that I have to stop and ask what the heck is going on here?

 

How deep will this early cool go? Are we talking weather? Or climate? I mean, it's just been so out of the norm.

I'm not trying to be over dramatic, just responding to the total weirdness of things down this far south.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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I'm finding this whole very early Texas cooling a bit unsettling. We were so cool this past week and the air so uncharacteristically dry compared to good old awful Gulf humidity standards that I have to stop and ask what the heck is going on here?

 

How deep will this early cool go? Are we talking weather? Or climate? I mean, it's just been so out of the norm.

I'm not trying to be over dramatic, just responding to the total weirdness of things down this far south.

Definitely odd pattern but not in the realm of climate yet. Need a few more years for it to be climate shift. Will be interesting to see how this solar cycle plays into this because of lag time.
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Definitely odd pattern but not in the realm of climate yet. Need a few more years for it to be climate shift. Will be interesting to see how this solar cycle plays into this because of lag time.

100 percent. When there is a longer pattern, I'd say we can qualify it. However, all the calling cards are showing up and they are pretty hard to refute. Warm N. Pac and a huge crash in ocean temps off the NE US within a week or 2 is a good sign.

 

I remember reading about dry air dominating the Atlantic tropical theater in 2013. That is something that bears similarity. When the Atlantic is suppressed, usually the Pacific fires off typhoons from now until December.

 

Everyone remembers the typhoon rule.

Good times ahead.

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Definitely odd pattern but not in the realm of climate yet. Need a few more years for it to be climate shift. Will be interesting to see how this solar cycle plays into this because of lag time.

 

There's also a lag time with the oceans as well. 

The water coming up from the deep ocean has not seen the sea surface since the Little Ice Age.  Maybe a coincidence, but I find it an interesting factoid.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Ice, Ice, Baby...will be the theme going forward across the Archipelago region as we finish up Summer and head right into the Autumn months.  Boy, this may be a textbook signal that the early development of the "North American Vortex" for next cold season will be brewing up early and often during the month of Sept.  I firmly believe nature is going to provide us with some very early clues this month up north as temps are forecast to plummet at, or below, freezing across N Canada over the next couple weeks.  Early Ice and Snow buildup???  If the models are right, IMO, this is a tell-tale sign we will encompass "home brewed" cold across our continent.  What I'm anticipating is a vicious start to Winter across Canada that will undoubtedly introduce strong CF's across the lower 48 in September.  My worry for our farmers and early frosts/freezes is heightened based on the overall pattern going forward.  If you thought last Autumn was cold, this one may be even worse for our Sub.  

 

Let's take a look at what the CFSv2 is showing for Sept....textbook blocking "hook over the top" that screams #earlyautumn...I'm in agreement.

 

 

 

CFSv2.z700.20190802.201909.gif

 

 

 

CFSv2.NaT2m.20190802.201909.gif

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https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/fall-like-air-breaks-record-lows-from-early-1900s-in-parts-of-southern-us/70008881

 

Despite the 100* temps currently, the southern plains are still in the game for an early fall.

With cool air able to punch its way south, we just may have an early fall and be in Tom’s future posts!!

 

My question for now is how damp will that air be?

Last winter we were cold and it felt damp everywhere. Humidity penetrated the interiors of our home and it was miserable. But that tells me how close we are to possible snow in January.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Ice, Ice, Baby...will be the theme going forward across the Archipelago region as we finish up Summer and head right into the Autumn months. Boy, this may be a textbook signal that the early development of the "North American Vortex" for next cold season will be brewing up early and often during the month of Sept. I firmly believe nature is going to provide us with some very early clues this month up north as temps are forecast to plummet at, or below, freezing across N Canada over the next couple weeks. Early Ice and Snow buildup??? If the models are right, IMO, this is a tell-tale sign we will encompass "home brewed" cold across our continent. What I'm anticipating is a vicious start to Winter across Canada that will undoubtedly introduce strong CF's across the lower 48 in September. My worry for our farmers and early frosts/freezes is heightened based on the overall pattern going forward. If you thought last Autumn was cold, this one may be even worse for our Sub.

 

Let's take a look at what the CFSv2 is showing for Sept....textbook blocking "hook over the top" that screams #earlyautumn...I'm in agreement.

 

 

 

CFSv2.z700.20190802.201909.gif

 

 

 

CFSv2.NaT2m.20190802.201909.gif

That's about like calling a 9th inning home run in the bottom of the 3rd. :) Perfection. I'm learning the true markers of a real winter to come instead of the "head fakes" I've fallen for the last 3 years. The evidence I've seen and mentioned agrees. Bring it on.

And the crowd goes wild.....

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https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/fall-like-air-breaks-record-lows-from-early-1900s-in-parts-of-southern-us/70008881

 

Despite the 100* temps currently, the southern plains are still in the game for an early fall.

With cool air able to punch its way south, we just may have an early fall and be in Tom’s future posts!!

 

My question for now is how damp will that air be?

Last winter we were cold and it felt damp everywhere. Humidity penetrated the interiors of our home and it was miserable. But that tells me how close we are to possible snow in January.

I think last winter was a taste test for the both of us.

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Nearing the 2012 record melt for Greenland this year. Hmmmm. Twice in 7 years. The North is baking. Usually means cold for the Great Lakes. Just kidding. Most signs point to a normal to above normal autumn temp wise.

Record build up of snow and ice the previous 2 years and minimal melt during summer season. #balance

 

Btw, I’m curious to hear what your seeing that points to warmth for autumn around the GL’s? IMO, after a cool/cold start to Autumn, Nov may end up on the wamer end. That’s just my first guess at this stage.

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Record build up of snow and ice the previous 2 years and minimal melt during summer season. #balance

 

Btw, I’m curious to hear what your seeing that points to warmth for autumn around the GL’s? IMO, after a cool/cold start to Autumn, Nov may end up on the wamer end. That’s just my first guess at this stage.

I would say I scour the message boards for all types of forecasts. Majority I’ve seen point to dry and warmer analogs. Nothing is set in stone when it comes to weather. I’d prefer a cooler dry fall to be honest. We’ve just been in such a cool pattern until July this year in the Great Lakes the law of averages says warm lol.

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I saw these tweets from @JudahCohen regarding the Snow Advance Index which concur to the idea of a rapid snow build up across Siberia.  This mirrors the ECMWF & UKMET super blend model precip anomalies through October in this region.  Interesting.  More clues to the cold season.  It also is seeing a weakened state of the PV early on during the development of the LRC which suggests to me blocking will be a common theme.

 

 

 

EA4tXsEWwAEkMyO.png

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Judah's posts got me thinking and digging deeper.  I've been studying the pattern and looking for more clues.  While doing so, I couldn't help but notice how much of the Northern Hemisphere is forecast to be covered with snow based off today's CFS run by Oct 1st.  I flipped through the last 10 runs and it practically paints a similar story so what we should be looking for going forward is consistency.  I'm intrigued by this bc last year the Northern Hemisphere broke records in terms of snow pack and if it starts fast right out of the gates per recent guidance, we may be in for quite a cold season.

 

See chart below...

 

fmi_swe_tracker.jpg

 

 

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Judah's posts got me thinking and digging deeper. I've been studying the pattern and looking for more clues. While doing so, I couldn't help but notice how much of the Northern Hemisphere is forecast to be covered with snow based off today's CFS run by Oct 1st. I flipped through the last 10 runs and it practically paints a similar story so what we should be looking for going forward is consistency. I'm intrigued by this bc last year the Northern Hemisphere broke records in terms of snow pack and if it starts fast right out of the gates per recent guidance, we may be in for quite a cold season.

 

See chart below...

 

fmi_swe_tracker.jpg

The way they write dates, that's actually 10/01/2019, right?

 

That's insane. Bring it on!

 

That's an entire snowed in N. Hemisphere. You all realize that. How crazy. It's a dream come true.

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The way they write dates, that's actually 10/01/2019, right?

 

That's insane. Bring it on!

 

That's an entire snowed in N. Hemisphere. You all realize that. How crazy. It's a dream come true.

Your correct, that date is in fact 10/01/19 which is nuts to think that nearly all of Russia/Siberia would have that much snow cover very early in October. I remember years past where it accurately predicted a slow start to the SAI index. The CFS model does a good job but I’d like to see these maps by Sept 1st showing a similar forecast.

 

Needless to say, there are more and more clues, just like last year, that sing on a similar tune and indicate a cold Autumn. I still believe there will be late warming in November as the cold pulls back. Hopefully we’ll end the phase of warm Decembers but if a PV disruption happens early in the Winter, then it’ll be a warm start.

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Your correct, that date is in fact 10/01/19 which is nuts to think that nearly all of Russia/Siberia would have that much snow cover very early in October. I remember years past where it accurately predicted a slow start to the SAI index. The CFS model does a good job but I’d like to see these maps by Sept 1st showing a similar forecast.

 

Needless to say, there are more and more clues, just like last year, that sing on a similar tune and indicate a cold Autumn. I still believe there will be late warming in November as the cold pulls back. Hopefully we’ll end the phase of warm Decembers but if a PV disruption happens early in the Winter, then it’ll be a warm start.

For October, that's about as snowed out as you'll ever see. You are correct. Theres going to have to be a pullback period if the early frost/freeze scenario works out.

Getting ready to go back in history and do some reading to see how a few of these situations ran out and refresh my memory a tad. Hard not to be excited though and a bit sad for the farmers. They haven't exactly had the lush "year of plenty" that I've experienced down here.

It's a twoedged sword I guess.

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I’m very concerned for our farmers and ranchers. Hard to keep going and food prices will jump a great deal, so I caution the excitement unless you have deep pockets.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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This is a couple weeks old but Terry Swails posted a pretty decent write up regarding the upcoming winter. Mentions 13-14 as a possible scenario.

https://www.tswails.com/single-post/2019/07/22/SOME-CLUES-ABOUT-WINTER

Hope so, but I need that southern jet this time. I don't get lucky like I did in 2013-14 very often under that setup. It was just a significantly displaced Northern branch that worked for me.

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Well, if it flips to La Niña Texas is out of the winter running.

Hope it isn’t dry too.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Well, if it flips to La Niña Texas is out of the winter running.

Hope it isn’t dry too.

I don't think it will flip. I think we'll see what I call a hybrid. Think La Nina style blasts that get trapped against a west coast ridge with a jet extension underneath. It's going to be historic. (I think) The next month or so is very important to watch and those SSTS off Baja are pretty important as well for you and I. The rest of the folks are safely within reach of the Polar jet this winter.

If the pattern brings heavy rain back here in the next 3 weeks, we'll have an awesome winter. :)

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My step-daughter's visiting the grandparents in Russia a couple houra east of Moscow. She wrote me yesterday.."I am wearing a warm scarf on my head, my northface jacket, a hoodie and tights. Such nice summer here!" 

 

There's some chill out there boys-n-girls. Whenever it makes it's way back here, look out! For now, doing my best to ignore said mini-drought imby, and enjoy summer comfort while it's with us. 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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As usual, I'm starting to look forward to Autumn this time of year, and even to a snowy winter.  There's been a lot of discussion above about how autumn will start cold, etc., suggesting that we'll all get the snow we want when winter eventually arrives.  I'm not trying to be contrary, but I think we all know that most of us on this forum look for signs of snow and cold vs. warm and dry in the Fall and Winter months. Our analysis might be a bit influenced by what we want to see happen.  So just for arguments sake, can anyone make a case for a warm/dry Fall and Winter?  What are the signs that might be showing that?  I just want to get a balanced look.  

 

Thanks!

 

As for my ideas, I'm currently thinking it'll start cool to cold & wet across most of our Sub Forum (Sept/Oct) but then it relaxes as we head into November.  True Indian Summer may be in the cards this year before we see Winter comeback early on.  A real good chance that we may have a SSW event sometime in late Nov/early Dec which could be unprecedented.  This is a Big If, but there are signals I'm starting to look at that will impact the Strat this year. 

 

The SE ridge will be a big player to this season, as well as, high lat blocking which should aid in an active storm track once again across the Sub.  It's too early to say, but there are other factors I'm looking at which can bust the cold potential in October.  Even though the Euro Weeklies look very warm out in the 4-6 week range, I don't believe them.  The Euro is horrible at handling the warm SST's in the NE PAC.  This will be a season where knowledge of model behavior from the most recent winters of '13-'14 & '14-'15 can pay big dividends at forecasting the future for this season.  I recall vividly how bad the Euro wanted to keep placing troughs into western NAMER while the GFS handled it better.  Nonetheless, it should be a fun season so we'll just have to sit back and see what mother nature throws us.

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As usual, I'm starting to look forward to Autumn this time of year, and even to a snowy winter. There's been a lot of discussion above about how autumn will start cold, etc., suggesting that we'll all get the snow we want when winter eventually arrives. I'm not trying to be contrary, but I think we all know that most of us on this forum look for signs of snow and cold vs. warm and dry in the Fall and Winter months. Our analysis might be a bit influenced by what we want to see happen. So just for arguments sake, can anyone make a case for a warm/dry Fall and Winter? What are the signs that might be showing that? I just want to get a balanced look.

 

Thanks!

For my honest direct opinion, I'm going with warm dry September into cold, wet October down here. I still think the north is going to have issues with cold early, I've been on that train since June. Going to ride it till it crashes or blows. Lol.

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For my honest direct opinion, I'm going with warm dry September into cold, wet October down here. I still think the north is going to have issues with cold early, I've been on that train since June. Going to ride it till it crashes or blows. Lol.

Ya, I have to agree with you in terms of breaking down that ridge in Sept down south. It'll happen though later in the month of Sept when troughs get stronger.  

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As we approach the height of the sea ice melt season, I draw my attention up north into the Archipelago region of Canada. Whether you believe we are amidst of a climatic shift or not, I certainly have been intrigued by the resilience of ice cover over the past several years in this part of the world during the summer months. Keeping that in the back of my mind, the northern hemispheric pattern is going to be very favorable for the sea ice to maintain itself throughout the month of August. In fact, it may even begin growing later in August into early Sept. It's going to start getting cold up north (sub 32F) and snows are coming early. IMO, this is part of the reason why I firmly believe the early stages of the "North American Vortex" will brew up once again this cold season. "If you built it, they will come"...

 

Taking a gander at the current state of the sea ice chart below, the Northwest Passage of N Canada are solidly ice covered. Certainly looks like we will have another year where ships will not be able to pass through.

 

 

cursnow_alaska.gif

 

 

Arctic temps have been running just about normal this season....

 

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/plots/meanTarchive/meanT_2019.png

 

 

 

In my own opinion, models are having a devil of a time seeing cold in the longer range. More importantly, they are busting badly on where blocking is setting up. I maintain steadfast that Autumn is coming early and hard up north, farmers across southern Canada should be worried about crop failures as early freezes are in the cards. Similarly speaking, when looking back at the Autumn of '16, southern/western Canada saw very cold air build early and often, esp in October. I do anticipate this cold to build in Sept, not October, a month in advance of norm. Remember last year? We saw a similar tune. Autumn is coming...

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I'm ready. The next 3-4 days of 102* to 104* is making ANY front look very very nice.

 

Allergens are picking up down here too, for the first time since spring.

Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Ya, I have to agree with you in terms of breaking down that ridge in Sept down south. It'll happen though later in the month of Sept when troughs get stronger.

I'm not excluding 4 days to a week of cool and crisp somewhere in the month either. That ridge keeps ping-ponging around and flexing back and forth, mostly due to NAO influence. Eventually it will lose the fight and connect with the Cali ridge. Then it will be lights out.

I think the EPS is running this pattern out a bit too long. There hasn't been 46 days like that at any time this year. There won't be in this round either. That's my $.02 worth. Lol.

 

I'd take September's version of today in a minute. :)

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As usual, I'm starting to look forward to Autumn this time of year, and even to a snowy winter.  There's been a lot of discussion above about how autumn will start cold, etc., suggesting that we'll all get the snow we want when winter eventually arrives.  I'm not trying to be contrary, but I think we all know that most of us on this forum look for signs of snow and cold vs. warm and dry in the Fall and Winter months. Our analysis might be a bit influenced by what we want to see happen.  So just for arguments sake, can anyone make a case for a warm/dry Fall and Winter?  What are the signs that might be showing that?  I just want to get a balanced look.  

 

Thanks!

I can tell you that you're in a winter forum so like you mentioned expect to always see probably somewhat skewed calls for crazy epic winters with things never seen before and predictions such as a new Ice Age coming with the planet going negative starting next year. :rolleyes:  I wouldn't ever expect a forecast for a dry warm winter anywhere in this forum even down in Texas.

I found this forum several years ago before finally creating an account last year I believe and I've never seen a call for a boring winter so it's always take things with a grain of salt I'd say. At the end of the day long term weather forecasts (60-90+ days) are still a crap shoot. Methods are getting better and it's interesting to see some of the techniques being used. I love snowstorms(not so much the cold), and that's why I hang out around here to see what's going on around the region and of course to hope for big storms this winter.

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Our focus right now, in terms of looking ahead should really be centered on watching the magnificent show of HP building over the next 240 hours in the Arctic and in Canada.

 

The tropical domain and subtropical down here are at their largest in terms of stable heat and heavy wet air. It's just the season. It's still August, no matter how desperately I want for it to be October. Lol.

 

Just watch Alaska/GOA, the Arctic, and far western NAO regions for the next 10. Fixing to watch earth's most beautiful thermo-regulation system kick in to perfection.

 

Canada may not see much above average temperatures for awhile. That's not a wish cast. There are telltale signs also when Alaska records mid-90s+ in July and they did this year.

 

In 40 days, our world down here will be a lot different, I believe. Particularly north of the Kansas border. Going to be a battle for me and Texas, possibly a rough Autumn severe season in the making too.

 

For us (Andie and I), thunder in autumn sounds ahead for winter. ;)

 

I'm excited. Very very, after looking up north today.

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