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2019 Autumn & Winter Discussion

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#1
Tom

Posted 01 July 2019 - 11:41 AM

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I've been tackling on the idea of starting this thread without linking the Winter months and focusing moreso on the Autumn period.  For now, this thread will primarily be geared towards the months of Sep-Nov and leaving out the "Winter Discussion" and/or Outlook at this point in time.  In the months ahead, we may just include them at a later point in time for the sake of compartmentalization.

 

With that being said, there is much to discuss as there are conflicting signals being forecast among the models in terms of the ENSO (which plays a big role in long range forecasting).  I'll just dive right in...

 

For instance, the CFSv2 just about a couple months ago was suggesting a La Nada to develop by late Summer into Autumn.  However, that in turn trended towards a weak/mod over the last month or more of runs. But wait, up until the last week, it's back to a La Nada!  What may be causing this erratic behavior???

 

 

Here is the most recent image of the subsurface SST anomalies across the equatorial PAC which have cooled back off significantly again.  I'm trying to search for reasoning but I'll be honest, I don't have one at the moment.  We'll just have to see how this blob of cooler waters interacts with the warm pool on top.  Will it erode it???  Time will tell.

 

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

Below I have attached the CFSv2 monthly/seasonal ENSO 3.4 region recent runs...

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 


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#2
Andie

Posted 01 July 2019 - 03:59 PM

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You know Tom, as Texas reaches its zenith in terms of summer, our week of the Fourth will see temps in the high 80's - low 90's. We also are cloudy and have scattered showers and 7 counties under flash flood warnings. I think we will see an early Fall. Perhaps not as early as the GL area but early for us. My bet is September will be the turn and it will be cooler and rainier than normal.

Next week will be more normal, but this is out of character. Mid to high 90's down here.
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
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#3
OKwx2k4

Posted 01 July 2019 - 05:16 PM

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Tom, I've been pondering the autumn about every day now a little bit. I've got a pretty firm mindset to think that there's not going to be anything on the southern end this year after about August 15th to stop cold. I've ran every possible scenario out that I can run off the top of my head and the only really bad one that could happen somehow is a thing like 1999. You have a mirror of a summer to this one, shut down growing early and then bake the central US under +4 to +6 all winter. It was one of the worst head fakes I can remember. 2000-01 was the mirror opposite sequence.

We'll have a lot to discuss this year.

This VERY rapid decrease in ENSO with the last few weeks all but eliminates the threat of tropical ridging being too strong or the Pacific overwhelming the nation.

#4
Tom

Posted 02 July 2019 - 04:13 AM

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Tom, I've been pondering the autumn about every day now a little bit. I've got a pretty firm mindset to think that there's not going to be anything on the southern end this year after about August 15th to stop cold. I've ran every possible scenario out that I can run off the top of my head and the only really bad one that could happen somehow is a thing like 1999. You have a mirror of a summer to this one, shut down growing early and then bake the central US under +4 to +6 all winter. It was one of the worst head fakes I can remember. 2000-01 was the mirror opposite sequence.

We'll have a lot to discuss this year.

This VERY rapid decrease in ENSO with the last few weeks all but eliminates the threat of tropical ridging being too strong or the Pacific overwhelming the nation.

 

Your statement right there brings up a good point.  I totally missed that and it would make sense to see less ridging across the central CONUS for the month of Sept.  Gosh, what I'm seeing in Sept are some good signals for strong troughs swinging through the central CONUS.  I'm telling ya, I envision some places across the north seeing their first flakes of the season and may break some records when talking "last flake" vs "1st flake".  The shortest summer transition in decades???  There are a lot of variables I'm paying attention to that are coming together.


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#5
Tom

Posted 02 July 2019 - 04:25 AM

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IMO, the CFSv2 has done a very good job in recent years predicting cold air across the Arctic regions in the Autumn months.  It isn't a surprise to me that we are seeing another forthcoming Autumn with cold air being predicted up across this part of the world and an early build up of snow/ice is likely again.  In fact, I'm going out on a limb here and predicting one of the fastest snow cover build ups across North America during the month of Sept/Oct, which will only enhance our chances of early season snow/cold outbreaks.

 

 

I have long spoken about a climatic shift which is likely occurring across the Archipelago/Arctic regions of N Canada.  During this Autumn, I predict to see our own "home grown" Arctic Air to build up across Canada.  Remember when snow/ice was supposed to be a thing of the "past"???  Nature will yet again show who's boss.  Something big is going to brew up this year.  I sense it.  I believe it.  I see it.

 

 


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#6
Tom

Posted 02 July 2019 - 06:14 AM

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I just read a very interesting stat and one that should raise eyebrows going forward...we will undoubtedly add to that as we progress for the remainder of this year. #lowsolar

Today marks the 68th day of negative North Atlantic Oscillation period. Among with 2011, this is the longest -NAO stretch on record (thread below).


Are we heading towards unprecedented times????



D-cuj6sXUAA7s-J.png




@Michael Ventrice posted this tweet which is a critical period for the development of the new LRC cycle...well, hello there Greenland Block and displaced "Vortex"????

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LF analog model with Africa standing wave as strongest forcing at lower frequencies for Oct-Nov. -NAO.

D-eMXEMXYAA8V2l.jpg
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#7
OKwx2k4

Posted 02 July 2019 - 04:01 PM

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I just read a very interested stat and one that should raise eyebrows going forward...we will undoubtedly add to that as we progress for the remainder of this year. #lowsolar


Are we heading towards unprecedented times????



D-cuj6sXUAA7s-J.png




@Michael Ventrice posted this tweet which is a critical period for the development of the new LRC cycle...well, hello there Greenland Block and displaced "Vortex"????



D-eMXEMXYAA8V2l.jpg

If we do a 2012-13 or a 11-12, I'm going to lose it. I might not ever talk about weather ever again. I'm semi-serious. :lol:

Those 2 years are about like an F sharp. You know what an F sharp is good for?
Nothing. Not one thing. :lol:

#8
OKwx2k4

Posted 02 July 2019 - 04:10 PM

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2012... When I think of 2012, I think of a 33.0° rainy Christmas morning. It was supposed to be amazing like 2009. 2012......no, just please no.

I'll quit whining but I hate that year. These probably belong in the complaint thread. :lol:

Ps. 2012 sucks.
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#9
Tom

Posted 02 July 2019 - 04:34 PM

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If we do a 2012-13 or a 11-12, I'm going to lose it. I might not ever talk about weather ever again. I'm semi-serious. :lol:

Those 2 years are about like an F sharp. You know what an F sharp is good for?
Nothing. Not one thing. :lol:


No chance we see a repeat scenario of those years in terms of the Winter. The SST’s in the PAC are largely quite different and in some spots the opposite. Your going to do well this coming cold season.



#10
Andie

Posted 02 July 2019 - 05:02 PM

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I think North Texas will cash in that cold wet season, but I'm concerned about next summer......I know.....that's another thread.

Okwx, I agree - 2012 sucked
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
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Low Temp. - 8.4*

#11
OKwx2k4

Posted 02 July 2019 - 05:18 PM

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This was the redeeming quality of 2012-13 and it happened right when we though winter had been gone. May 2-4, 2013 was pretty much a May miracle by weather standards here. It was also what served as a "check" or slap in the face that year to look forward. The following was the blitz from start to finish, the winter of 2013-14. That was just a fast-paced, ice-snow-thaw, repeat once a week year. Over and over.

"PRELIMINARY SNOW ACCUMULATION SUMMARY MAY 03 2013...

...REPORTS SORTED BY AMOUNTS...

IN OKLAHOMA...

3.00 INCHES OF SNOW AT WESTVILLE IN ADAIR COUNTY
1.50 INCHES OF SNOW 1 MILES NORTH OF STILWELL IN ADAIR COUNTY
1.50 INCHES OF SNOW 6 MILES WEST OF WEST SILOAM SPRINGS IN DELAWARE COUNTY"
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#12
Tom

Posted 03 July 2019 - 03:37 AM

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@ OkWx, here is a comparison of the SST's for both of the year's 2011 & 2012 and you will quickly notice how opposite they are when comparing to the current SST pattern the models are forecasting for October.  Things can change, but I don't expect to see abrupt changes.  The only question I have for now is if there will be an El Nino or is the CFSv2 "seeing" a La Nada???

 

2011...clearly, you have a much different scenario across the N PAC.  The warm blob which is being forecast for the Autumn is replaced by a very cold pocket near Alaska which kept the GOA Low locked the entire cold season.  Warm blob NW of Hawaii compared to a cold pocket that's being forecast this year.  This is literally an exact opposite scenario and you have a La Nina on going.

 

 

anomnight.10.3.2011.gif

 

 

 

 

2012...practically the same thing is happening across the N PAC except for a warmer equatorial PAC.

 

anomnight.10.1.2012.gif



#13
OKwx2k4

Posted 03 July 2019 - 04:02 AM

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@ OkWx, here is a comparison of the SST's for both of the year's 2011 & 2012 and you will quickly notice how opposite they are when comparing to the current SST pattern the models are forecasting for October. Things can change, but I don't expect to see abrupt changes. The only question I have for now is if there will be an El Nino or is the CFSv2 "seeing" a La Nada???

2011...clearly, you have a much different scenario across the N PAC. The warm blob which is being forecast for the Autumn is replaced by a very cold pocket near Alaska which kept the GOA Low locked the entire cold season. Warm blob NW of Hawaii compared to a cold pocket that's being forecast this year. This is literally an exact opposite scenario and you have a La Nina on going.


anomnight.10.3.2011.gif




2012...practically the same thing is happening across the N PAC except for a warmer equatorial PAC.

anomnight.10.1.2012.gif


In terms of sensible weather here over eastern Oklahoma and looking at the temp gradients there, they were basically 2 low solar, cold ocean era Niños if contrast is worth anything.

Worst PAC alignment in the satellite era IMO. It was like the global circulation became stuck everywhere but the equator.
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#14
Andie

Posted 03 July 2019 - 04:55 AM

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I just read a very interesting stat and one that should raise eyebrows going forward...we will undoubtedly add to that as we progress for the remainder of this year. #lowsolar

Are we heading towards unprecedented times????

I did some reading last night on TSI and dug into some climatologists. I find it interesting that those that were scorned 10 years ago are being vindicated.

The consensus being that we are looking at a century of cold. The sun has a life of its own and we have to live with it. Many of these scientists see temps declining and the time period between 2030 and 2100 will see very cold times. We are in the early years of the cycle. This will be the 2nd fall and winter of the sun beginning to unwind this cooler sun.
We will see more solar maximums but overall we are living with a colder sun. Our job is to adapt.

That said Texas should see a wet cold fall and winter. Much like last fall and winter. I don't know about you, but I'm getting the message.
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#15
Sparky

Posted 04 July 2019 - 02:19 AM

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I did some reading last night on TSI and dug into some climatologists. I find it interesting that those that were scorned 10 years ago are being vindicated.
The consensus being that we are looking at a century of cold. The sun has a life of its own and we have to live with it. Many of these scientists see temps declining and the time period between 2030 and 2100 will see very cold times. We are in the early years of the cycle. This will be the 2nd fall and winter of the sun beginning to unwind this cooler sun.
We will see more solar maximums but overall we are living with a colder sun. Our job is to adapt.
That said Texas should see a wet cold fall and winter. Much like last fall and winter. I don't know about you, but I'm getting the message.

I sure hope we aren’t heading for very cold times, or I just might have to move to Texas!!
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(‘18 - ‘19 season snowfall total: 52”. ) Greatest season snowfall = 60.5” in 2007 - ‘08

#16
Andie

Posted 04 July 2019 - 12:44 PM

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It's not so bad here. You can work on your tan!

Articles have spoken of 31 of the 32 models being tweeted to reveal what the US govt wants it to say, and that the Russian model is more realistic. I've come to not throw all my faith in the govts assessment as it's been shown to be wrong.
So, I do believe we will see colder years ahead. I just hope the severity isn't too bad. I like eating and farmers like to farm.
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#17
Stacsh

Posted 04 July 2019 - 07:00 PM

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Isn’t the North country roasting in this pattern??? I see a warm Autumn.

#18
Stacsh

Posted 04 July 2019 - 07:03 PM

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I did some reading last night on TSI and dug into some climatologists. I find it interesting that those that were scorned 10 years ago are being vindicated.

The consensus being that we are looking at a century of cold. The sun has a life of its own and we have to live with it. Many of these scientists see temps declining and the time period between 2030 and 2100 will see very cold times. We are in the early years of the cycle. This will be the 2nd fall and winter of the sun beginning to unwind this cooler sun.
We will see more solar maximums but overall we are living with a colder sun. Our job is to adapt.

That said Texas should see a wet cold fall and winter. Much like last fall and winter. I don't know about you, but I'm getting the message.


Consensus amongst scientists? We are not getting colder. Even with Sun lower maximum. It’s just not happening. Weather isn’t Climate.

#19
Tom

Posted 05 July 2019 - 03:37 AM

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Alright, now this has me a bit intrigued.  I don't know about you but this has got me thinking about next Autumn quite a bit.  Good bye Nino???  Was the JAMSTEC right all along months ago suggesting a La Nada or weak Nina by this Autumn???  The most recent CFSv2 trends are certainly veering far away from the weak/mod Nino it has been showing for a number of weeks now.  The more I think about this and the developing large subsurface cold pool across the equatorial PAC has got me leaning towards a La Nada or ENSO neutral conditions for the Autumn.

 

 

Those boiling waters up near the Bearing Sea scream SER for next year's LRC cycle.  Let's see if I'm right about that.

glbSSTSeaInd3.gif

 

usPrecSeaInd3.gif

 

What is really abnormal about how much the SST's are cooling across the central/eastern PAC over the last number of weeks is that we have a -SOI.  This alone suggests Nino conditions should be favorable.  The most recent JMA weeklies certainly paint a picture that downward motion will be prevalent across the central PAC over the next 4 weeks but the ocean SST's don't seem to be responding that way.  That's quite interesting.  Nature throwing a curve ball???  Time will tell how this all plays out.

 

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif

 

 

Y201907.D0312_gl0.png

 

 

 

 

 

 

This week, there will be several climate models coming out with their updated seasonal forecasts and some of them are the more pronounced ones which include: ECMWF, JAMSTEC, JMA and also the NMME.


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#20
Niko

Posted 05 July 2019 - 05:31 AM

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Ahhhhh....thinking about Autumn temperatures right now feels sOOOOOOooooooo good AND refreshing.


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#21
Tom

Posted 05 July 2019 - 08:04 AM

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So, I'm hearing that the Euro Seasonal did in fact trend towards the CFSv2 and no longer has a Nino.  Interesting, and something to ponder on as we get closer towards Autumn.  If that holds, I could see a one of the Autumn months being very warm, perhaps a true Indian Summer???  We've seen similar SST patterns set up both in '13-'14 and '14-'15....here were those Autumn temps.

 

2013 Autumn...

 

SON13TDeptUS.png

 

 

 

2014 Autumn...

 

SON14TDeptUS.png



#22
Andie

Posted 05 July 2019 - 07:59 PM

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Consensus amongst scientists? We are not getting colder. Even with Sun lower maximum. It’s just not happening. Weather isn’t Climate.

Ive been reading a good deal from climatologists. Yes they disagree but US models have come under scrutiny for being scewed lately. I still think the overall trend is cooler. We will have warm Autumns and hot as hell summers but generally winters will be hard.

Yes, I do know that weather is not climate.
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#23
Tom

Posted 06 July 2019 - 03:19 AM

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The latest T-depth anomalies across the equatorial PAC certainly paint the picture that the demise of the Nino is en route...gives me credence that we are definitely going to have a different pattern next Autumn.  Meanwhile, on a side note, this jives with my long term ideas that when we combine low solar activity, stochastic events globally,  and a potentially weak Nina that may have legs for 1-2 years...Global Temps should trend lower by 2021-22.

 

 

 

wkxzteq_anm.gif



#24
OKwx2k4

Posted 06 July 2019 - 10:50 AM

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The latest T-depth anomalies across the equatorial PAC certainly paint the picture that the demise of the Nino is en route...gives me credence that we are definitely going to have a different pattern next Autumn. Meanwhile, on a side note, this jives with my long term ideas that when we combine low solar activity, stochastic events globally, and a potentially weak Nina that may have legs for 1-2 years...Global Temps should trend lower by 2021-22.



wkxzteq_anm.gif


My long term thoughts are for a neutral-to-cool era for the next 12-18 months.

Seeing the PAC disconnect from the equator, in a sense, is kinda wild.

Seasonal are all going to go sketchy in the next month or so I'd imagine.

If I had to throw a warm month in autumn over the heartland, it would maybe be October. Maybe late Sept and 2-3 weeks of Oct.

#25
Tom

Posted 09 July 2019 - 03:09 AM

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Big change from the latest NMME ENSO 3.4 forecast from last month as it is now suggesting ENSO neutral conditions to progress through late Summer into the Autumn.  Something the JAMSTEC model was showing for months except for last months run.  I'd imagine the JAMSTEC will go back to what it was showing in previous months.  It certainly is looking likely that we will be experiencing a much different equatorial PAC environment for the 2nd half of this calendar year.

 

 

 



#26
Tom

Posted 09 July 2019 - 03:27 AM

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Here is the NMME's global SST configuration...there are several things that stand out to me which will influence the development of next year's LRC cycle.

 

1) Warm Ring in the N PAC

2) Cold waters in the central/eastern PAC 

3) Very warm waters along both U.S. coasts

4) Cold waters around Australia

 

With several of the above points mentioned, I would not be surprised at all that we see another year of an active SER and Split Flow pattern.  

 

 


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#27
Sparky

Posted 10 July 2019 - 01:14 PM

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I think North Texas will cash in that cold wet season, but I'm concerned about next summer......I know.....that's another thread.
Okwx, I agree - 2012 sucked

2012 really sucked in a lot of places! There was widespread severe drought that year & I think it was the hottest year on record in Iowa & probably many areas!
(‘18 - ‘19 season snowfall total: 52”. ) Greatest season snowfall = 60.5” in 2007 - ‘08

#28
OKwx2k4

Posted 10 July 2019 - 03:00 PM

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2012 really sucked in a lot of places! There was widespread severe drought that year & I think it was the hottest year on record in Iowa & probably many areas!


According to stats during a very questionable era of truth, supposedly the hottest ever globally. Either way, I know it was 2nd hottest here to 1936. Too hot.
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#29
OKwx2k4

Posted 11 July 2019 - 07:02 PM

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This is the best "west-shifted" positive PDO and warm pool combo I have ever seen. If you want a precursor to a cold era, you're not going to find a better example. Incredible. That NP warm pool is epic. Pumping a huge portion of global heat right out of the mid-latitudes. Perfection. I've been waiting to see this literally for years and years. I've read about it and had to use my imagination, but it doesn't get prettier than this.

Attached File  anomnight.7.11.2019.gif   227.14KB   0 downloads
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#30
Tom

Posted 12 July 2019 - 01:46 AM

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This is the best "west-shifted" positive PDO and warm pool combo I have ever seen. If you want a precursor to a cold era, you're not going to find a better example. Incredible. That NP warm pool is epic. Pumping a huge portion of global heat right out of the mid-latitudes. Perfection. I've been waiting to see this literally for years and years. I've read about it and had to use my imagination, but it doesn't get prettier than this.

attachicon.gifanomnight.7.11.2019.gif

 

I was thinking the same thing not long ago.  The oceans are setting up to something I have always wanted to see happen.  Hopefully next cold season is the one that includes all of us in the fun and games.


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#31
Tom

Posted 12 July 2019 - 02:26 AM

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Here is the most recent Euro seasonal anomaly plume for ENSO 3.4 region....

 

 

 

ps2png-gorax-green-005-6fe5cac1a363ec152

 

 

 

Meantime, the JAMSTEC came in overnight and it pretty much agrees with the Euro that a La Nada is in the works???

 

ssta.nino3.4.fcst.2-yr.1jul2019.gif

 

 

 

SST map for the Autumn months...

 

ssta.glob.SON2019.1jul2019.gif

 

 

Temps are extraordinarily warm throughout the entire globe...not happening...

 

 

 

temp2.glob.SON2019.1jul2019.gif

 

tprep.glob.SON2019.1jul2019.gif



#32
jaster220

Posted 13 July 2019 - 07:15 PM

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I was thinking the same thing not long ago.  The oceans are setting up to something I have always wanted to see happen.  Hopefully next cold season is the one that includes all of us in the fun and games.

 

Thinking about winter at the zenith of summer (and vice-versa often), I'm thinking it's been too long since Marshall took a solid hit (8+) from a single storm.

 

The last 8+ event that was a solid Watch-to-Warned event was the 9.1" of Dec. 11/12, 2016!  Which will be 3 full yrs this December.



#33
Tom

Posted 13 July 2019 - 07:19 PM

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Thinking about winter at the zenith of summer (and vice-versa often), I'm thinking it's been too long since Marshall took a solid hit (8+) from a single storm.

 

The last 8+ event that was a solid Watch-to-Warned event was the 9.1" of Dec. 11/12, 2016!  Which will be 3 full yrs this December.

You have some making up to do buddy!  Let this be your year....La Nada's and weak Nina's are typically good for the GL's region.


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#34
OKwx2k4

Posted 13 July 2019 - 07:32 PM

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Thinking about winter at the zenith of summer (and vice-versa often), I'm thinking it's been too long since Marshall took a solid hit (8+) from a single storm.

The last 8+ event that was a solid Watch-to-Warned event was the 9.1" of Dec. 11/12, 2016! Which will be 3 full yrs this December.


I'm on "What is snow?" I hear about it sometimes. Lol. Is it something you eat? What does it do?
:lol: :lol:
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#35
Tom

Posted 15 July 2019 - 03:17 AM

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I've learned from past experience to carefully watch the trends in SST patterns across the N PAC and Equatorial PAC during the month of Sept as we enter the Autumn season.  It is my own personal opinion, as I believe we are certainly entering a climatic shift and one that resembles historical periods of the past.  The big "flip" in the modeling of a potential neutral ENSO event or La Nada for the Autumn gives me credence that the idea not only the Arctic will rapidly cool off this Autumn/Winter, but moreso, we will see a favorable hemispheric North American Vortex take shape in both Oct/Nov.  The maps below will verify my thoughts that I had earlier in the Summer.

 

As mentioned in the Summer thread, the JMA seasonal has come out and as many of you know, the all important month of October is now in our sights.  With that being said, I'm beginning to have more confidence that by Sept our continent will cool off significantly and lay down the groundwork up north by building a snow pack early and often.  If you look at the 500mb pattern, the alignment of the SST pattern in the N PAC should justify a wavy jet pattern in the early Autumn months (will likely start seeing that in August actually) and continue into October as the new LRC pattern sets up causing a dynamic Split Flow pattern.

 

Sept temp/precip...

 

Y201907.D1000_gl2.png

 

Y201907.D1000_gl0.png

 

 

Oct....cool/wet LRC for the hearltand yet again???

 

Y201907.D1000_gl2.png

 

Y201907.D1000_gl0.png

 

 

 

I wanted to comment on the JMA's SST forecast for the month of October as one will quickly capture some striking similarities to the possibility of some cold Autumn months in recent years.  Firstly, the "Warm Ring" in the NE PAC raises the stakes of early cold out breaks.  Secondly, the warm pocket of waters east of Hawaii may provide the fuel to develop tropical troubles late in the Hurricane Season and like last year, this may in fact fuel storms coming out of the Baja region.  If you look at the third map above for the month of October, it is advertising "sinking" motion over Mexico and the Baja region.  This is important as it will aid in the development of the new LRC pattern causing fuel to feed storm systems in the SW part of the U.S which then translates into the central CONUS.  Quite an interesting JMA seasonal run overall.

 

 

 

Y201907.D1000_gls.png

 

 


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#36
Andie

Posted 15 July 2019 - 08:33 AM

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Thinking about winter at the zenith of summer (and vice-versa often), I'm thinking it's been too long since Marshall took a solid hit (8+) from a single storm.

The last 8+ event that was a solid Watch-to-Warned event was the 9.1" of Dec. 11/12, 2016! Which will be 3 full yrs this December.

Jaster, Okwx,

Here's your shot of the day of snow.
Fellow said it was " Puking Snow" in Tasmania.

Enjoy!
https://mobile.twitt...e-alps-20190713
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#37
OKwx2k4

Posted 15 July 2019 - 11:46 AM

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Jaster, Okwx,

Here's your shot of the day of snow.
Fellow said it was " Puking Snow" in Tasmania.

Enjoy!
https://mobile.twitt...e-alps-20190713


Oh, that stuff! :lol: Haha! Nice. Can't get here fast enough.
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#38
Niko

Posted 15 July 2019 - 12:02 PM

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Thinking about winter at the zenith of summer (and vice-versa often), I'm thinking it's been too long since Marshall took a solid hit (8+) from a single storm.

 

The last 8+ event that was a solid Watch-to-Warned event was the 9.1" of Dec. 11/12, 2016!  Which will be 3 full yrs this December.

Same here....hopefully, next year will be our Winter. I'll accept 6"+in a single storm and no questions asked.


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#39
Tom

Posted 16 July 2019 - 08:06 AM

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Looking at the ECMWF/UKMET seasonal blend for precip anomalies during the Aug-Oct period on a global scale, some interesting factors may come into play early on in Autumn.  Notice the above normal precip across nearly all of Russia/Siberia and east into Alaska/Canada.  Is this a signal that the Snow Advance Index (SAI) will be rather impressive this year???  Fast start to winter in Canada???  Just another possible clue as we move along.

 

 

 

 


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#40
Niko

Posted 17 July 2019 - 03:53 AM

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Ahhhhhhh, the Autumn, CF's coming down from Canada bringing w them that chilly, refreshing air and hearing the leaves that have already fallen from the trees fly around, making that sound. OK, back to heat and huimidity. That really cooled me off though for sec.


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#41
jaster220

Posted 17 July 2019 - 08:55 AM

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Same here....hopefully, next year will be our Winter. I'll accept 6"+in a single storm and no questions asked.

 

I can't get a Watch OR Warn for 6" tho. Not outta my office, lol. So "no bueno" on that amigo


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#42
Niko

Posted 17 July 2019 - 09:26 AM

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I can't get a Watch OR Warn for 6" tho. Not outta my office, lol. So "no bueno" on that amigo

:huh: :lol:


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#43
Andie

Posted 21 July 2019 - 12:25 PM

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It is my own personal opinion, as I believe we are certainly entering a climatic shift and one that resembles historical periods of the past. The big "flip" in the modeling of a potential neutral ENSO event or La Nada for the Autumn gives me credence that the idea not only the Arctic will rapidly cool off this Autumn/Winter, but moreso, we will see a favorable hemispheric North American Vortex take shape in both Oct/Nov. The maps below will verify my thoughts that I had earlier in the Summer.

Based on your research, how far south will this early cool dip?
I'm wondering how soon Texas will see the back of this heat broken ?
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#44
OKwx2k4

Posted 21 July 2019 - 12:41 PM

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Andie, I'm not Tom, but if I had to throw an opinion in the hat, I'd say less than a month.

The problem here is that we may also see it bring a tropical system back towards you and myself in the latter ranges of this. These pattern realignments are tricky sometimes when the pattern becomes disconnected in late summer. This is the period, (Aug-1 through Oct-1) that I struggle with the most.

My opinion is that this cold front is a "leader" of sorts. We'll see.
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#45
Andie

Posted 24 July 2019 - 08:51 AM

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This front has been wonderful. I can certainly enjoy this where it might be a bit warm for my northern brothers.

I expect some tropical storms. Texas is used o them and in many ways, often breaks the back of our heat.
Hurricanes may be few this year for everyone.
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#46
Tom

Posted 26 July 2019 - 07:53 AM

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Using maps from @BenNoll, more clues incoming for the new LRC pattern???  Here is a super blend of the ECMWF + UKMET...active storm track right across our Sub???  Tongue of cool from the TX Panhandle up into the GL's...interesting...

 

EAZn381UcAInAnG.jpg

 

 

 

EAZn5pbUYAEHjB0.jpg


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#47
OKwx2k4

Posted 26 July 2019 - 01:13 PM

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Using maps from @BenNoll, more clues incoming for the new LRC pattern??? Here is a super blend of the ECMWF + UKMET...active storm track right across our Sub??? Tongue of cool from the TX Panhandle up into the GL's...interesting...

EAZn381UcAInAnG.jpg



EAZn5pbUYAEHjB0.jpg

How about an autumn OctoBomb for 2019?

Loving what appears to be the early season storm track. So many very close but so far away situations last year. Heres to hoping that -NAO hangs around to help me out.

Jaster knows what kind of storm I'm talking about. An NW Texas/OK to great lakes special.
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#48
Tom

Posted 28 July 2019 - 06:48 AM

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After doing some quick analyzing of the current SST's, model data, and more specifically the overall N Hemisphere pattern, I am finding reasons that Autumn '19 is coming in fast and possibly hard this season.  Firstly, I want to compare our current ENSO state, to the year 2017, to which, both years resembled ENSO neutral conditions. 

 

Back in September 2017, the central PAC looks sorta similar to where we are now...

 

anomnight.9.4.2017.gif

 

 

Our current SST's...while we are only in very late July, forecast models suggest cooling to continue across the central PAC as we approach Sept.

 

anomnight.7.25.2019.gif

 

 

 

The big difference and what I believe will be the driver to our Autumn pattern in Sept, is the "warm blob" in the NE PAC.  Back in Sep '17, one can argue the N PAC is quite opposite to the current state of affairs.  If you look closely, the waters NW of Hawaii/South of Aleutians are cold presently and they were very warm in 2017.  Forecast models continue this SST pattern from August into Sept and pretty much throughout the entire cold season.  Why am I pointing this out?  Back in Sept '17, the nation east of the Rockies was relatively very warm.  In fact, I remember we had days in the 90's around here.  Reason being, those cooler waters in the NE PAC produced favorable conditions to keep troughs coming into NW NAMER which flooded the nation across the eastern CONUS with warmth.

 

 

Sep17TDeptUS.png

 

 

However, this year, I expect an entirely different pattern due to the SST's being quite opposite across the N PAC.  In fact, recent guidance is now suggesting a big trough to inundate the eastern 2/3 rd's of the nation.  Nearly all the variables one could imagine are pointing towards a short growing season, early frosts, active pattern, and possible first flakes up north???  The waters in the NE PAC are going to promote the NW NAMER ridge early and often this Autumn.

 

 

 

cfs-mon_01_z500a_namer_2.png

 

 

 

cfs-mon_01_apcpna_month_namer_2.png

 

My senses are being heightened and I foresee a fast start to Autumn, one we really have not seen since maybe 2014.  If the clues that I'm seeing continue, the new developing LRC in Oct/Nov will include blocking and an active northern stream along with some southern stream action later in November.  I think the blocking wanes in November, as the Vortex strengthens significantly across N Canada and the Arctic/Greenland regions.  This fits with the idea of the climatic changes I'm seeing evolving across the Arctic regions during the cold seasons of late and into the future.  There will be a period later in Autumn where I anticipate Indian Summer and it may very well be in November when I think the high lat blocking fades.  I really believe another spectacular weather pattern will be evolving across the central CONUS.  While we gear up for our last month of Summer, signals for Autumn starting early way up north across the Archipelago are already showing up in the extended.  A tell-tale sign that mother nature has something up her sleeves.

 

 

  

 

 

 

 

 


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#49
Andie

Posted 28 July 2019 - 07:31 AM

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I'm finding this whole very early Texas cooling a bit unsettling. We were so cool this past week and the air so uncharacteristically dry compared to good old awful Gulf humidity standards that I have to stop and ask what the heck is going on here?

How deep will this early cool go? Are we talking weather? Or climate? I mean, it's just been so out of the norm.
I'm not trying to be over dramatic, just responding to the total weirdness of things down this far south.
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#50
Stormhunter87

Posted 28 July 2019 - 07:45 AM

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I'm finding this whole very early Texas cooling a bit unsettling. We were so cool this past week and the air so uncharacteristically dry compared to good old awful Gulf humidity standards that I have to stop and ask what the heck is going on here?

How deep will this early cool go? Are we talking weather? Or climate? I mean, it's just been so out of the norm.
I'm not trying to be over dramatic, just responding to the total weirdness of things down this far south.

Definitely odd pattern but not in the realm of climate yet. Need a few more years for it to be climate shift. Will be interesting to see how this solar cycle plays into this because of lag time.
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