2019 Autumn & Winter Discussion

[Niko]

This just amazes me everytime I see this......January, 2014. I get the chills just by looking at this.

[jaster220]

Interesting snippits..

 

• The early snowfall cover over North America would allow deeper cold to be developed early, which would potentially lead to an earlier snowfall season for both the Western US (which is already beginning to see snowfalls) and closer to winter, for the Eastern US as well.
• The drop in temperature in the polar stratosphere could allow an increase in ozone transport to the Northern Hemisphere Polar Vortex, via the Brewer-Dobson Circulation. For those who aren’t familiar with the stronger BDC, it means that a Sudden Stratospheric Warming is more likely, and that increases snowfall prospects for Europe, Eastern US and Japan.

We are currently in a strong -AAM owing to an underlying Nina-esque background state in the atmosphere. This will cycle through, but the current progged charts show a -AAM like environment, particularly in the first two months of the winter season.

I am not a massive fan of analogs, but I will use one in this case to demonstrate the effects the -AAM has upon the atmospheric circulation:

Above is a -0.5 and below -AAM composite for DJF. It shows us rough conditions for what I think will be featured in the 2019-2020 winter.

1. Alaskan Ridging
2. Deep low in the Central US.
3. Greenland High
4. European troughing/-NAO
5. Japanese troughing.

So there would be a favouring of snowfall for the Central and Eastern US, based on my predictions, especially earlier on. The eastern side of the Rockies would do well according to the above chart, but I at this point favour more of a shift to a -EPO domain for the Aleutian High, with some development of the Aleutian Low. 

 

Full article here:

 

https://longrangesnowcenter.net/2019/09/27/late-september-northern-hemisphere-2019-20-winter-outlook/

[jaster220]

Can someone with more knowledge on this event comment? It sounds significant per Ventrice's tweet

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1178640617905278976

[Tom]

Can someone with more knowledge on this event comment? It sounds significant per Ventrice's tweet

 

https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1178640617905278976

From what I have read and understood, cold waters near Australia and the Indian Ocean create a favorable MJO (phases 8/1) which are cold signals.  Hense, we have seen an MJO stuck in phase 1 and meander into phase 8.  These are the "holy grail" phases in the winter/early spring months.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

[jaster220]

From what I have read and understood, cold waters near Australia and the Indian Ocean create a favorable MJO (phases 8/1) which are cold signals.  Hense, we have seen an MJO stuck in phase 1 and meander into phase 8.  These are the "holy grail" phases in the winter/early spring months.

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

 

I am also familiar with the favorable (for cold) winter phases of 8-1-2. As you had mentioned before, the effects are different for us depending on season. So, do you believe he's thinking ahead towards winter, and/or a recurrence then? (aka LRC) or just touting the rare strength of the event? His comment that it was already in the top 1% against historical norms (prior to recent surge) really caught my attention. I don't follow Michael and I'm not familiar if he's a winter friendly Met or not? Thx for breaking it down btw

[Niko]

I carried the discussion into this thread as this would not fit the 10/9-10/13 Upper MW Powerful Winterstorm thread:

 

This article hopefully explains and provides answers as to whether it was colder and snowier a century ago or not....I think it was

 

https://www.farmersalmanac.com/winters-better-or-worse-20134

[jaster220]

@ Niko

 

While not a super-accurate article, this is a good read. I notice it says updated in 2017 yet they didn't put the Feb1-2, 2015 (aka GHD-2) storm in the list at #3 all time where it landed. Broke a 40+ year drought of Big Dogs for Detroit proper. 

 

https://www.tripsavvy.com/history-of-blizzards-in-detroit-1084689

 

Also, always been fascinated by the back-to-back Big Dogs back in 1900. That'd be cool to see again, wouldn't it?

 

There was another BD for the northern burbs in recent times. The 2007 New Years Eve storm. DTX out in White Lake had 16+" and somewhere just north of your area scored 17+ inches. You don't hear or read much about it since DTW/DET got mostly ice and sleet. There was a very nasty cut-off right thru far SEMI

 

EDIT - Found an updated and comprehensive list. I hadn't realized DTW made out so good with the 2013 New Years Eve storm, followed by the PV bliz a few days later. Almost a modern day version of the 1900 scenario. No wonder your snow depth was so impressive!

 

[Tom]

I am also familiar with the favorable (for cold) winter phases of 8-1-2. As you had mentioned before, the effects are different for us depending on season. So, do you believe he's thinking ahead towards winter, and/or a recurrence then? (aka LRC) or just touting the rare strength of the event? His comment that it was already in the top 1% against historical norms (prior to recent surge) really caught my attention. I don't follow Michael and I'm not familiar if he's a winter friendly Met or not? Thx for breaking it down btw

I think he's talking more or less about the near term, however, I look at it as a positive sign in the longer term, esp being a top 1% event bc as you know, I believe in cycling patterns and I'm most certain we will see these phases as the cold season progresses.  Michael is a winter friendly MET and enjoys talking about snow/cold patterns.

[Niko]

@ Niko

 

While not a super-accurate article, this is a good read. I notice it says updated in 2017 yet they didn't put the Feb1-2, 2015 (aka GHD-2) storm in the list at #3 all time where it landed. Broke a 40+ year drought of Big Dogs for Detroit proper. 

 

https://www.tripsavvy.com/history-of-blizzards-in-detroit-1084689

 

Also, always been fascinated by the back-to-back Big Dogs back in 1900. That'd be cool to see again, wouldn't it?

 

There was another BD for the northern burbs in recent times. The 2007 New Years Eve storm. DTX out in White Lake had 16+" and somewhere just north of your area scored 17+ inches. You don't hear or read much about it since DTW/DET got mostly ice and sleet. There was a very nasty cut-off right thru far SEMI

 

EDIT - Found an updated and comprehensive list. I hadn't realized DTW made out so good with the 2013 New Years Eve storm, followed by the PV bliz a few days later. Almost a modern day version of the 1900 scenario. No wonder your snow depth was so impressive!

 

2017-03-14 Detroit Top-25 Snowstorms.png

Those were phenomenal storms.

 

[Niko]

@ OKw2k4

 

Looks like your chilly weather is coming soon.

[Grizzcoat]

@ Niko

 

While not a super-accurate article, this is a good read. I notice it says updated in 2017 yet they didn't put the Feb1-2, 2015 (aka GHD-2) storm in the list at #3 all time where it landed. Broke a 40+ year drought of Big Dogs for Detroit proper. 

 

https://www.tripsavvy.com/history-of-blizzards-in-detroit-1084689

 

Also, always been fascinated by the back-to-back Big Dogs back in 1900. That'd be cool to see again, wouldn't it?

 

There was another BD for the northern burbs in recent times. The 2007 New Years Eve storm. DTX out in White Lake had 16+" and somewhere just north of your area scored 17+ inches. You don't hear or read much about it since DTW/DET got mostly ice and sleet. There was a very nasty cut-off right thru far SEMI

 

EDIT - Found an updated and comprehensive list. I hadn't realized DTW made out so good with the 2013 New Years Eve storm, followed by the PV bliz a few days later. Almost a modern day version of the 1900 scenario. No wonder your snow depth was so impressive!

 

2017-03-14 Detroit Top-25 Snowstorms.png

Wow- those are overall pretty weak from what I thought. Especially over more than 1 (24 hour) day. I expected DET to be similar to the MSP. 

[Grizzcoat]

Especially recently.

 

  TOP SIX SNOWSTORMS       *                                      *
*    FOR THE TWIN CITIES      *                                      *
*    -------------------      *                                      *
*                     INCHES  *                                      *
*  1. OCT 31-NOV 3 1991 28.4  *                                      *
*  2. NOV 29-DEC 1 1985 21.1  *                                      *
*  3. JAN 22-23 1982 .. 20.0...NOTE CORRECTION NEEDED TO //NCDC-LCD//*
*  4. JAN 20-21 1982 .. 17.4  *                                      *
*  5. DEC 10-11 2010 .. 17.1  *                                      *
*  6. NOV 11-12 1940 .. 16.8  *   

[jaster220]

Of historical significance (but a bit OT) was this rare late Feb bomber over Ohio. 

 

1965022512.gif

 

It was an impressive Gulf Low similar to the Jan 1918 bliz. Amounts were not crazy huge, but I'll take dbl digit totals with legit blizzard conditions any time. Apparently Saginaw with 18" was one of the highest totals reported. Most like BC were in the 10-12" range. I was 5 mos old at the time and don't remember a flake, lol, tho my folks had a photo and I remember seeing it dated 1965. 

 

I cite this storm as the beginning of the 2 decade atmospheric pattern that brought historic strong storms/events to the GL's/OHV region during my youth. Sure would like to see those atmospheric fireworks return..

 

In digging around for that updated list of Detroit's all-time snowstorm list, I found this nice remembrance of the Feb '65 storm on Bill Deedler's site/blog. Imagine in this era of added moisture how big this may have been for Motown. 

 

https://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2016/02/this-weeks-projected-snowstorm-lands-on.html

 

(At the time in Feb 2016, I was too busy tracking the impending storm to notice the coincidental dates. Marshall was actually ground zero scoring a healthy 11.6" and making the NWS's national storm totals list. Could easily have been another 15+ BD had ratios been typically cold. Warmth of the Nino conditions made it a rather marginal temps scenario with 8 or 9:1 ratios with the synoptic part of the storm)

[Niko]

In digging around for that updated list of Detroit's all-time snowstorm list, I found this nice remembrance of the Feb '65 storm on Bill Deedler's site/blog. Imagine in this era of added moisture how big this may have been for Motown. 

 

https://weatherhistorian.blogspot.com/2016/02/this-weeks-projected-snowstorm-lands-on.html

 

(At the time in Feb 2016, I was too busy tracking the impending storm to notice the coincidental dates. Marshall was actually ground zero scoring a healthy 11.6" and making the NWS's national storm totals list. Could easily have been another 15+ BD had ratios been typically cold. Warmth of the Nino conditions made it a rather marginal temps scenario with 8 or 9:1 ratios with the synoptic part of the storm)

Easily more than 18"+.

[St Paul Storm]

I didn’t find this on my own, but I think it’s pretty cool and others might find it useful. First snowfall records for thousands of sites around the US. Enjoy, or ignore!

 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/history-first-snow-season-thousands-us-stations

[jaster220]

I didn’t find this on my own, but I think it’s pretty cool and others might find it useful. First snowfall records for thousands of sites around the US. Enjoy, or ignore!

 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/history-first-snow-season-thousands-us-stations

 

Disclaimer. It's only thru Nov 2017, so any early hits since won't be reflected in there. Not an issue with the last (3) autumns 'round these parts    (just thought I'd mention it)

[jaster220]

Wow- those are overall pretty weak from what I thought. Especially over more than 1 (24 hour) day. I expected DET to be similar to the MSP. 

 

Could NOT be further apart wrt big storm climo. 

 

Especially recently.

 

  TOP SIX SNOWSTORMS       *                                      *

*    FOR THE TWIN CITIES      *                                      *

*    -------------------      *                                      *

*                     INCHES  *                                      *

*  1. OCT 31-NOV 3 1991 28.4  *                                      *

*  2. NOV 29-DEC 1 1985 21.1  *                                      *

*  3. JAN 22-23 1982 .. 20.0...NOTE CORRECTION NEEDED TO //NCDC-LCD//*

*  4. JAN 20-21 1982 .. 17.4  *                                      *

*  5. DEC 10-11 2010 .. 17.1  *                                      *

*  6. NOV 11-12 1940 .. 16.8  *   

 

Detroit/SMI in general is a place where it likes to snow much more frequently than most places, it just can't pull together the monsters that MSP manages to. Even tho we're actually closer to the same moisture source (GOM). It's a combination of things. One, the warmth blanket of the Lakes vs MN's direct access to bitter polar air masses. 2nd has to do with the dominant storm track having to fight the Appalachian Mtn's to our SE. Detroit especially fights the WTOD causing mixing issues and a loss of good ratios. Note that their No. 1 & 2 storms were OUTSIDE of true winter. Go figure!  

[jaster220]

Accuweather tid-bit

 

Farther east, in the Upper Midwest and Great Lakes, cold air will encourage a number of lake-effect snow events. 

Residents will want to stock up on shovels, as an above-normal season for snowfall is in the offing.

 

 First line is like "duh" - name me a winter when that doesn't happen.    

[Andie]

Someone needs to start a First snowflake thread/contest.

 

Who will see the first flakes?

[jaster220]

Great accommodations..

 

The Miami University basketball team, after beating the Rockets Wednesday night in Toledo, made it to Vandalia and spent the night in the city jail after being stranded.

 

(from Toledo Blade news article on the bliz of '78)

[OKwx2k4]

Great accommodations..

 

 

(from Toledo Blade news article on the bliz of '78)

"Welcome to the beautiful Hanoi Hilton of Vandalia" Too funny.

[Tom]

The ground work is being laid down by nature as an expansive area of snow is beginning to cover western/northern North America.  Over the next 10 days, more snow will continue to fall and where it does the cold will continue to build.

 

 

 

 

00z GFS is showing a lot of snow to fall over the next 10 days...

 

 

 

The CFS model continues to show Canada covered with snow by Halloween...the signals nature is giving us are all lining up for something very special this season.

 

 

 

 

Not to mention, the overall Northern Hemisphere is off to a fast start in the snow dept....#WinterIsCoiming

 

 

 

 

 

As far as the current state of the SST's, I know our friends down south will like whats happening near the Baja of CA, as there is notable cooling ongoing.  What I'm starting to pay attn to is the cooling hugging the NW NAMER coastline which is clearly showing us that the storms are tracking down the coastline of NW NAMER.  Let's see if this is temporary or if it continues throughout this month.

 

 

[jaster220]

@ Tom

 

 

 

As far as the current state of the SST's, I know our friends down south will like whats happening near the Baja of CA, as there is notable cooling ongoing.  What I'm starting to pay attn to is the cooling hugging the NW NAMER coastline which is clearly showing us that the storms are tracking down the coastline of NW NAMER.  Let's see if this is temporary or if it continues throughout this month.

 

What would be the impacts of that scenario? Wouldn't that be a step back from positive impacts of "the Blob"? 

[Tom]

@ Tom

 

 

What would be the impacts of that scenario? Wouldn't that be a step back from positive impacts of "the Blob"? 

Not entirely bc the placement of the mean ridge may be just offshore allowing for storms to slide down western N.A.  This placement would also support the AK ridge to fire up so that will allow a pattern to "seed" arctic air down into the lower 48.

[Niko]

By the weekend, it will definitely feel like Autumn in a lot of places. Highs in the 40s for mby and lows dipping down into the 30s. Could the first frost be in store this weekend for my neck of the woods??!! Hopefully the winds are not too strong.

[OKwx2k4]

Not entirely bc the placement of the mean ridge may be just offshore allowing for storms to slide down western N.A. This placement would also support the AK ridge to fire up so that will allow a pattern to "seed" arctic air down into the lower 48.

Correct. This implies the tendency for a closed ridge or a ridge which can poke its top up into AK or western Canada, vs throwing a huge ridge upstream. It also allows for storms to undercut the ridge and phase in certain scenarios instead of having to rely solely on a displaced polar jet. Historically, when the Baja area and the waters off Cali/Mexico are toasty warm, it can pump the whole southern US full of Pacific air and keep the jet displaced north. I know it's just a small area in a vast ocean, but it's implications are huge for central TX up through here and into Appalachia.

 

Same concept applies to the waters of the far NE coast of N.Amer. When both are warm, historically, you can just draw a line from SW to NE and say that the SE US below that point isn't getting winter. I've learned that, finally.

[westMJim]

Anyone  who is interested in when the first snow fall at “thousands of locations”  here is a link to that site.

 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/understanding-climate/history-first-snow-season-thousands-us-stations

[OKwx2k4]

@ Tom

 

 

What would be the impacts of that scenario? Wouldn't that be a step back from positive impacts of "the Blob"?

You want the blob closed off in the central Pac and teleconnected to it's current position. If it gets shoved east toward the GOA, I'm screwed. Right now, it's perfect where it's at, feeding what should become an amazing Aleutian low by late November and diverting the southern branch south. Feed that with a blooming weak Modoki and "voila" you run the table with both northern phase and southern phase.

[OKwx2k4]

Really terrible drawing here, but this explains it a bit better.

 

Basically follow the arrows.

[Tom]

The Euro's MJO forecast is pretty....phase 8/1/2...can this just be on auto pilot from now till Spring???  This is how "Legends are Made"....

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

[OKwx2k4]

This image explains what I'm saying very clearly as well. I'm happy as can be. Just can't wait til the end of November.

Just a clear demonstration that I'm not wish casting on this one as well.

The MJO backs me up as well. Thanks Tom! Very timely.

[Niko]

The Euro's MJO forecast is pretty....phase 8/1/2...can this just be on auto pilot from now till Spring???  This is how "Legends are Made"....

 

 

 

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/MJO/CLIVAR/ECMF_phase_51m_small.gif

That would be awesome, but its too bad that it recurs every 30-60 days. Hopefully, it can stay like this till March.

[CentralNebWeather]

This image explains what I'm saying very clearly as well. I'm happy as can be. Just can't wait til the end of November. gfs_z500aNorm_npac_42.png

Just a clear demonstration that I'm not wish casting on this one as well.

The MJO backs me up as well. Thanks Tom! Very timely.

Thanks for posting.  This is a great scenario for the Plains. 

[james1976]

This image explains what I'm saying very clearly as well. I'm happy as can be. Just can't wait til the end of November. gfs_z500aNorm_npac_42.png

Just a clear demonstration that I'm not wish casting on this one as well.

The MJO backs me up as well. Thanks Tom! Very timely.

That is one heck of a trough

[Andie]

[jaster220]

This image explains what I'm saying very clearly as well. I'm happy as can be. Just can't wait til the end of November. gfs_z500aNorm_npac_42.png

Just a clear demonstration that I'm not wish casting on this one as well.

The MJO backs me up as well. Thanks Tom! Very timely.

 

Haha. What he said below. 

 

That is one heck of a trough

 

Need one of those in the OHV tho 

[OKwx2k4]

Haha. What he said below.

 

 

Need one of those in the OHV tho

In later cycles, I'm thinking that's where they go buddy. All the way to me, then they cut straight up to you.

 

Either way, you'll get yours.

[OKwx2k4]

Thanks for posting. This is a great scenario for the Plains.

You're very welcome.

[OKwx2k4]

Folks have long asked the question, with regards to that "blob" in the N.Pac, "Is it a chicken or egg thing?" The answer will be clear in November. That blob is every bit as volatile of an atmospheric driver as the ENSO index. Ie, it's the chicken, and it has been known for nearly 100-110 years to influence our weather in the North American continent.

 

If I'm wrong, then the PDO should mean nothing and neither should ENSO, but we all know from real life experiences that both of those do. If the blob meant nothing, we'd all still be under a ridge Saturday or doing the same weather we've done for the last 4 years of autumns. It's pretty evident that this one will be it's own animal. I love it.

[jaster220]

In later cycles, I'm thinking that's where they go buddy. All the way to me, then they cut straight up to you.

 

Either way, you'll get yours.

 

  This could work..