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2019 Autumn & Winter Discussion

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#651
Tom

Posted Yesterday, 01:49 AM

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While we hope to be chasing the ghost of 13-14, as you can see by this map, snow advance in Canada was nothing to write home about at this point. If Tom's hunch is correct, we may watch Canada fill with snow in an even more impressive way than six yrs ago. 

 

attachicon.gifOct19 2013 d292_usa.gif

 

By Halloween (12) days later, the Hudson Bay vortex appears to have been making it's presence felt!

 

attachicon.gifOct31 2013 d304_usa.gif

 

It's interesting when you look at that snow map above from Oct '13 and you can get a sense of where nature was heading with the overall "flow" of things that year.  Western Canada and the Western CONUS (except for the mountains of course) lacked snow cover and that region overall ended up very warm from extreme ridging.  This year, something much different is happening across most of Canada and you can just sense that there will be widespread cold invading as the "Emperor From the North" will be visiting frequently this season.

 

Jan - Mar '14...

 

JFM14TDeptUS.png


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#652
jaster220

Posted Yesterday, 08:14 AM

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Glad to see mega-ridging taking a break. We just had a very brief HP influence to get our chilly couple of nights but already next system influencing at 500mb  

Love it!

 

Attached File  20191019 12z gfs_mslpaNorm_us h18.png   151.67KB   0 downloads


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#653
OKwx2k4

Posted Yesterday, 10:19 AM

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For jaster. :) Brought to you in part by Earl Barker's model page and the super long range CFSv2. Enjoy!Attached File  CONUS_CFS-NODE1_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_340HR.gif   47.41KB   2 downloads
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#654
jaster220

Posted Yesterday, 06:12 PM

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It's interesting when you look at that snow map above from Oct '13 and you can get a sense of where nature was heading with the overall "flow" of things that year.  Western Canada and the Western CONUS (except for the mountains of course) lacked snow cover and that region overall ended up very warm from extreme ridging.  This year, something much different is happening across most of Canada and you can just sense that there will be widespread cold invading as the "Emperor From the North" will be visiting frequently this season.

 

Jan - Mar '14...

 

JFM14TDeptUS.png

 

Thinking Canada's autumn outlook is kinda like a preview of our winter outlook further south.

 

Look familiar?

 

Attached File  Canada fall temps.jpg   53.7KB   0 downloads


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#655
jaster220

Posted Yesterday, 06:13 PM

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For jaster. :) Brought to you in part by Earl Barker's model page and the super long range CFSv2. Enjoy!attachicon.gifCONUS_CFS-NODE1_1000-500_SLPTHKPRP_340HR.gif

 

Haha! That'd be a sweet one right there amigo - thx!


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#656
OKwx2k4

Posted Yesterday, 06:39 PM

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Haha! That'd be a sweet one right there amigo - thx!


I know it's a dream scenario but we have the pattern for it developing as we write. Thatd be an extreme storm by great lakes standards even for January.

#657
jaster220

Posted Yesterday, 08:39 PM

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Ontario "sledder's outlook" 2019-20 is a great article, even if you don't ride. 

 

https://www.northern...at-season-ahead



#658
jaster220

Posted Yesterday, 08:52 PM

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I know it's a dream scenario but we have the pattern for it developing as we write. That'd be an extreme storm by great lakes standards even for January.

 

It would be, especially if it were to hit when we already had a decent snow cover such as the Jan 12th, 1918 bliz and ofc the CSB of '78

 

Here's my compiled list of Big Dog storms during my lifetime that impacted Marshall and the amounts/conditions based on everything I know for this city. As you can see, it will be 9 yrs since we had a "High Winds" or bliz-type of storm. I'm really hoping to see one this winter as they are my fave. Another point I'd make is that almost all our BD storms avg .75"/hr of snow. We rarely exceed that during winter biggies where it's cold enough to get typical ratios which tend to run 12 or 13:1 only a couple on that chart like Dec '00 did better. We will see 1-2"/hr during some portion of the event, usually beginning or end, but have a very difficult time maintaining such high rates for more than 3-4 hrs. 

 

Attached File  Marshall Big Dogs List.PNG   15.59KB   0 downloads


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#659
jaster220

Posted Yesterday, 09:02 PM

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;)  Loved snow days when I was a student. Wouldn't mind one as a working adult tbh (still waiting).

 

Attached File  2019-20 Snowdays map.PNG   691.93KB   0 downloads


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#660
OKwx2k4

Posted Yesterday, 09:21 PM

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;) Loved snow days when I was a student. Wouldn't mind one as a working adult (still waiting) tbh.

2019-20 Snowdays map.PNG


Well, snow day hates me. Lol. I can already tell you that map will be wrong at the bottom.
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#661
Niko

Posted Today, 05:34 AM

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;)  Loved snow days when I was a student. Wouldn't mind one as a working adult (still waiting) tbh.

 

attachicon.gif2019-20 Snowdays map.PNG

Sweet! :D


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#662
Niko

Posted Today, 05:35 AM

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Well, snow day hates me. Lol. I can already tell you that map will be wrong at the bottom.

:lol: 



#663
Niko

Posted Today, 05:38 AM

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Haha! That'd be a sweet one right there amigo - thx!

Man, a perfection stormtrack! :D



#664
Niko

Posted Today, 05:39 AM

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Colors are at peak for my area now. It looks gorgeous out there.


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#665
Tom

Posted Today, 05:53 AM

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I'm beginning to see some early signals the Polar Vortex may want to pay an early visit into North America as we open up November.  If this forecast holds, we are looking for Major Arctic cold to invade the lower 48.  TBH, this is stuff that fascinates me about meteorology and what is quite intriguing.  Each and everyday I want to study and learn more about what drives these atmospheric conditions to transpire.  You don't typically see these type of maps during the opening days of November, let alone December...more like Jan/Feb!  I yearn for this stuff!  This may very well be the Polar Vortex version of the developing LRC and quite possibly exhibit B.

 

Having said the above, the good ol' CFSv2 has trended significantly away from the torch towards a pattern that favors BN temps next month.  It may be safe to say, we may be heading towards a long stretch of sub normal temps for the remainder of Autumn.

 

 

10 Days ago it had this...

 

CFSv2.z700.20191010.201911.gif

 

 

Today's run...much more bullish for a strong North American Vortex....not to mention high lat blocking....

 

CFSv2.z700.20191020.201911.gif

 

 

 

 

Temp/Precip trends....

 

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201911.gif

 

 

 

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201911.gif

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#666
jaster220

Posted Today, 06:36 AM

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Colors are at peak for my area now. It looks gorgeous out there.

 

Just a few miles north of Marshall is a region of many ponds, streams, and marshes. Decided to drive thru there and yeah, lots of color happening after those 2 frosty nights

 

Attached File  20191019_174956_HDR_resized.jpg   87.81KB   1 downloads

 

Also, the sky yesterday was like nothing I remember downstate in autumn. Normally we're hazy or just a cold cobalt blue in the winter. This combination of clarity in the atmosphere and various cloud types I remember from my days in NMI

 

Attached File  20191019_171801_resized.jpg   61.16KB   1 downloads

Attached File  20191019_180702_resized.jpg   53.24KB   1 downloads

Attached File  20191019_180804_HDR_resized.jpg   73.69KB   1 downloads

 

Another "old school rule" has to do with reading clouds. When you have clouds as seen above, it means you're in a favorable position wrt the Jet Stream/storm flow. Just a fwiw. As mentioned I cannot remember seeing such a magnificent sky in this far south locale.


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#667
jaster220

Posted Today, 06:50 AM

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@ Tom

 

Wow, quite a reversal on those CFS maps! Glad you're on top of the LR stuff, it's a bunch of work to track all that but definitely your specialty. Not sure if you read the Ontario outlook link I posted but even they were going with an extended warm autumn followed by a hard flip to ideal winter conditions towards end of Dec. They admitted signals are "mixed" with no strong ENSO driver thus it's really open to "surprises". Other guy at Weather Decoded was showing how poorly the LR models did at h5 for the middle of the country in first half of Oct where they had basically zonal ridging that ended up being the historically deep ND bliz. Kudos for "reading the tea leafs" far in advance of most amigo.


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#668
Tom

Posted Today, 07:01 AM

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Just a few miles north of Marshall is a region of many ponds, streams, and marshes. Decided to drive thru there and yeah, lots of color happening after those 2 frosty nights

20191019_174956_HDR_resized.jpg

Also, the sky yesterday was like nothing I remember downstate in autumn. Normally we're hazy or just a cold cobalt blue in the winter. This combination of clarity in the atmosphere and various cloud types I remember from my days in NMI

20191019_171801_resized.jpg
20191019_180702_resized.jpg
20191019_180804_HDR_resized.jpg

Another "old school rule" has to do with reading clouds. When you have clouds as seen above, it means you're in a favorable position wrt the Jet Stream/storm flow. Just a fwiw. As mentioned I cannot remember seeing such a magnificent sky in this far south locale.


Nice colors! While not as colorful as those pics, we are finally starting to see more trees with vibrant red/orange/yellow colors. I took a walk around the neighborhood and it’s beginning to look a lot like Christmas...I mean, Autumn....lolz, the thought of snow this morning had me thinking of Winter and the Holidays.

Speaking of the clouds yesterday, I to, was drawn to the high altitude, whisps of cirrus clouds. It was such a magnificent day and actually felt warm.
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#669
Niko

Posted Today, 07:08 AM

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Just a few miles north of Marshall is a region of many ponds, streams, and marshes. Decided to drive thru there and yeah, lots of color happening after those 2 frosty nights

 

attachicon.gif20191019_174956_HDR_resized.jpg

 

Also, the sky yesterday was like nothing I remember downstate in autumn. Normally we're hazy or just a cold cobalt blue in the winter. This combination of clarity in the atmosphere and various cloud types I remember from my days in NMI

 

attachicon.gif20191019_171801_resized.jpg

attachicon.gif20191019_180702_resized.jpg

attachicon.gif20191019_180804_HDR_resized.jpg

 

Another "old school rule" has to do with reading clouds. When you have clouds as seen above, it means you're in a favorable position wrt the Jet Stream/storm flow. Just a fwiw. As mentioned I cannot remember seeing such a magnificent sky in this far south locale.

Indeed, those frosty night really enhanced the colors.


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#670
jaster220

Posted Today, 11:12 AM

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:huh: Before snow plows, there were snow rollers in use out east. Never heard about those. 

 

https://www.burlingt...acham/37808353/


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