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Rise in Stochastic Events


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#151
Andie

Posted 31 August 2019 - 02:38 PM

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I think they'll regret it.  Poor soil is poor soil. The ancient cultures spent all their energy placing nutrients into their soil to feed their community.  Modern fertilizers may force crops, but think of how fertilizers will affect rivers.  I don't know, it's a lousy idea.


Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#152
snow_wizard

Posted 01 September 2019 - 08:27 AM

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Here is yet another example of how deep solar minimums can effect conditions on our planet.  In China somebody captured a stunning photo of a super sprite which scientists believe are more common during major solar minimums.

 

https://spaceweather...ite-over-china/


  • OKwx2k4 likes this

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#153
snow_wizard

Posted 01 September 2019 - 08:47 AM

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*
POPULAR

Impressive numbers mounting for this solar min now.  The monthly average for Jun, Jul, and August holds its own with any three month period during the minumum for the previous cycle.

 

1.2

0.9

0.7

 

VS

 

0.6

0.3

1.2

 

To lend some context to that....the 1995-96 solar min didn't have a single month average below 10 and that cycle was lower than some during the recent solar grand maximum..


  • iFred, Tom, weatherfan2012 and 2 others like this

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#154
Wxmidatlantic

Posted 01 September 2019 - 10:40 AM

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We must rember Billy Gram


A Navy Chief said, "Never change your forecast. That way you can only be wrong once."

#155
OKwx2k4

Posted 02 September 2019 - 11:54 AM

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Impressive numbers mounting for this solar min now. The monthly average for Jun, Jul, and August holds its own with any three month period during the minumum for the previous cycle.

1.2
0.9
0.7

VS

0.6
0.3
1.2

To lend some context to that....the 1995-96 solar min didn't have a single month average below 10 and that cycle was lower than some during the recent solar grand maximum..


One could possibly say that the solar era around 1918-2018 is officially over. I don't know any other years in that span as low as what we have seen this year. Someone may be able to correct me on that.

I, for one, am anxious to see the effects of this.
  • crf450ish likes this

#156
weatherfan2012

Posted 05 September 2019 - 03:30 PM

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Robert Filex posted this today https://www.iceageno...t-in-200-years/

#157
Tom

Posted 06 September 2019 - 03:15 AM

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Robert Filex posted this today https://www.iceageno...t-in-200-years/

It's not a coincidence that NASA began a mission to study our Sun and launched the Parker Solar Probe to farther understand our brightest star.

 

https://www.space.co...y-success.html 


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#158
Andie

Posted 07 September 2019 - 05:54 PM

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It's not a coincidence that NASA began a mission to study our Sun and launched the Parker Solar Probe to farther understand our brightest star.
 
https://www.space.co...y-success.html 


The science coming out of the solar studies over the next 10 years will be very interesting.
  • OKwx2k4 likes this
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#159
OKwx2k4

Posted 08 September 2019 - 10:30 AM

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I'm just glad I'm not crazy. That's all. Even with bent and modified evidence, they can't hide or change it all. The last 10 years, I've been stating what is in that article but when all you have is twisted evidence, you can't "prove" anything. They haven't predicted a correct or high enough peak in solar in over 23 years.

The temperature record in areas like mine bears solid evidence for solar cycles being the largest influence on things like ice events vs snow events, summer heating and short-term temperature extremes. When detrended for ENSO and variance in the N. PAC, I'm sure the trendline is even clearer here in the heartland.

I still believe that 1998 was the hottest year globally. Not 2012. The science doesn't support 2012 being the warmest year, with exception to maybe only on the N. American continent. My $.02 worth. I'm just happy an article backs me up word or word.

#160
OKwx2k4

Posted 08 September 2019 - 10:41 AM

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60 year arctic sea ice cycles?
Interesting paper written in 2015 worth a read.

https://researchonli...JGEESI16694.pdf

It has both the modified and detrended data side-by-side. Worth looking at.

Of note also, sea ice loss has rapidly caused again and are now over 100k above annual minimum indicating the freezing season is largely underway. We almost had a record early minimum. Very cool.
  • Andie likes this

#161
snow_wizard

Posted 08 September 2019 - 04:43 PM

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One could possibly say that the solar era around 1918-2018 is officially over. I don't know any other years in that span as low as what we have seen this year. Someone may be able to correct me on that.

I, for one, am anxious to see the effects of this.

 

This looks like it will come in lower than the deep three cycle minimum in the late 19th century through 1914.  That was the lowest activity since the Dalton minimum and this minimum plus the last one were deeper than any of the three minimums during that span.


  • Andie likes this

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#162
OKwx2k4

Posted 08 September 2019 - 05:23 PM

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Snow_wizard, this is what I thought also. The thing now will be timing the lag effect of this to see where we end up in say 3, 7, 15 or 30 years down the road. We know that some effects are near immediate but others show a lag in the data.

I hate that agenda driven science has hampered open research and made it more difficult over the last 10 years to just go and reference raw data like I could when I was younger.

I'd like to find the full sea ice records from 1949-1980 somewhere if I could but I doubt that will ever happen.

#163
snow_wizard

Posted 08 September 2019 - 09:43 PM

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x-ray flux has now dropped to A4.0 after being in the A6.0 to A7.0 range for quite soime time.  A4.0 is the lowest in many months.  It has now been over three months since there was a major sunspot or a C class flare.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#164
snow_wizard

Posted 08 September 2019 - 09:47 PM

snow_wizard

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Snow_wizard, this is what I thought also. The thing now will be timing the lag effect of this to see where we end up in say 3, 7, 15 or 30 years down the road. We know that some effects are near immediate but others show a lag in the data.

I hate that agenda driven science has hampered open research and made it more difficult over the last 10 years to just go and reference raw data like I could when I was younger.

I'd like to find the full sea ice records from 1949-1980 somewhere if I could but I doubt that will ever happen.

 

I would guess more extreme atmospheric blocking is one of the more immediate effects and global cooling will be more of a lag.  We are probably still seeing a lag effect from the recent grand maximum.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2018-19 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 12.4"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 12

Total Hail = 0.3"

Coldest Low = 13

Lows 32 or below = 63

Highs 32 or below = 1

Lows 20 or below = 6

Highs 40 or below = 15

 

 


#165
OKwx2k4

Posted 09 September 2019 - 06:57 AM

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"We are probably still seeing a lag effect from the recent grand maximum."


I agree with this wholeheartedly. If this is the case, may have to wait another 5-10 years for real effects to show up from the sun's part alone.

The volcanism, blocking, weather variances and earthquakes should start nearly anytime over the next 6 months though. (Technically they're mostly all underway already) The southern hemisphere has just experienced some of the most radical stratwarming in observed history if my research is still on point. That says a lot, in my opinion. 2002 was close, but apparently this one is "off the chain". It just doesn't happen. Will be interesting to see if our northern friend can do the same this winter.

#166
Tom

Posted 11 September 2019 - 10:24 AM

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As the end of the growing season is fast approaching, I"m worried about our ag belt up across the northern CONUS. If we get a Freeze to hit, it'll be devastating for the farmers.  

 

https://www.marketwa...d=mw_latestnews


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#167
OKwx2k4

Posted 12 September 2019 - 07:47 PM

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Attached File  FB_IMG_1568346505514.jpg   52.73KB   0 downloads

That ones a little close for comfort.

#168
Andie

Posted 13 September 2019 - 04:52 AM

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Interesting. That should be New Madrid area. Or at least a kissin' cousin.

Now this: http://theweatherfor...es/#entry487849

I have no idea if this is part of the big picture. It is, however, uncharacteristic.
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#169
OKwx2k4

Posted Yesterday, 11:50 PM

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Interesting. That should be New Madrid area. Or at least a kissin' cousin.

Now this: http://theweatherfor...es/#entry487849

I have no idea if this is part of the big picture. It is, however, uncharacteristic.


Yeah. That's Cherokee, NC on that map.
Lol@Arkansas puns...."kissin cousins". :lol:
Poor Arkies, can't catch a break. :lol:

Jokes aside, yes, those are very clearly the edges of new Madrid area. Big earthquakes for the time we're in. There's no outside influence whatsoever in the NC area. So it can't be from fracking or the like.

#170
Andie

Posted Today, 08:12 AM

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I just don't recall hearing much regarding quakes in NC and I've followed US quakes a long time.
East coast quakes are pretty few and far between.

Actually, I like Arkansas. Nice place to get away from all the city clutter.
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*