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August 2019 Observations and Discussion

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#1
Tom

Posted 27 July 2019 - 03:46 AM

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I can't believe how quickly this Summer has gone by as we approach the last month of meteorological Summer.  What can we expect this month???  Are there some twists and turns in the model world???  Will it get wetter across the ag belt???  Lot's to discuss this month as there are many contributing factors ongoing that will likely contribute to some phenomenal weather for many of us.

 

It's safe to say, the opening week of this month will likely produce very comfortable weather across a majority of our Sub as a cooler pattern unfolds.  If you like sunshine, low DP's and BN temps during the heart of Summer, then this is your type of weather.  Unless your living in the central/southern Plains, I think the heat is pretty much over for the remainder of this month.  I really don't see any particularly strong signals for any heat waves this month for the northern half of our Sub.  However, the SW ridge will probably try to meander back into the Plains at times so the farther west you are the heat will try to stick around.

 

The CFSv2 is forecasting a lot of the Sub cool and wet, but I'm in disagreement for how much cool is showing up across the southern Plains.  I think this part of the CONUS may end up warmer as I believe the ridge will pop  more often.

 

 

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#2
Tom

Posted 28 July 2019 - 04:26 AM

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Taking a look out into Week 2, one of the more impressive monster troughs for August standards is showing up.  Holy macro this is going to feel amazing.  Reminds me of the pattern during August '17.

 

 

00z GEFS temp anomalies showing widespread "cool to rule" the Nation to open up the 1st full week of August and continue....

 

 

 

gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_40.png

 

 

gfs-ens_T2ma_namer_44.png

 

 

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_namer_10.png


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#3
Tom

Posted 28 July 2019 - 04:44 AM

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I always find it intriguing when nature aligns to a specific calendar date and the opening day & week of August is undoubtedly going deliver a fascinating weather pattern.  In the 00z GEFS animation below, I want to point out a couple things that will work in tandem to produce a major trough and significant cold shot into the heartland. 

 

Notice on the 1st day of August, we have the Summer Polar Vortex directly over the Pole cooling off the arctic and a Hudson Bay low pressure system.  The combination of both systems, along with an meridional jet stream,  will work together and generate a favorable pattern to literally flood the nation of air that resides from the Arctic regions.  Quite an unusual pattern...sign of the times and clues for our Autumn???  #TasteofAutumn

 

 

 

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#4
james1976

Posted 30 July 2019 - 10:40 AM

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Last night on newscast local met had below normal temps Aug 6-12. This weekend into early next week we may get slightly above before it drops off again. I wonder if I'll even see 90 again this summer. Avg highs are starting to slowly drop now. Crazy how quickly summer is flying by.

#5
Yerf

Posted 30 July 2019 - 12:12 PM

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*
POPULAR

Looking Good

67417864_10157292287141760_7131156221293


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#6
Niko

Posted 30 July 2019 - 01:54 PM

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Looking Good

67417864_10157292287141760_7131156221293

Looks refreshing!


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#7
Niko

Posted 30 July 2019 - 06:53 PM

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Gorgeous evening out there. Temps are in the 60s under partly cloudy skies. Humidity levels are slightly uncomfortable (67F)


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#8
Tom

Posted 31 July 2019 - 08:07 AM

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Epic 7-day....can't ask for better wx during the heart of summer...

 

 

 

EAzvG8DX4AA0yeh.jpg


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#9
james1976

Posted 31 July 2019 - 08:57 AM

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Epic 7-day....can't ask for better wx during the heart of summer...



EAzvG8DX4AA0yeh.jpg

I think the cooldown comes directly after that.

#10
Hawkeye

Posted 31 July 2019 - 09:27 AM

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Epic 7-day....can't ask for better wx during the heart of summer...

 

A couple days with significant storm chances would be better.


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season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#11
Niko

Posted 31 July 2019 - 10:21 AM

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It is hot n humid here in the NYC Metro area today w the potential to see some severe weather later this afternoon. Temp is now at 90F and RF at 95F and Dew is at 70. 

 

BTW: major construction continues at LGA airport and should be done by 2020 or so. It will be a huge airport when all set n done.


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#12
Tom

Posted 31 July 2019 - 11:34 AM

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It is hot n humid here in the NYC Metro area today w the potential to see some severe weather later this afternoon. Temp is now at 90F and RF at 95F and Dew is at 70.

BTW: major construction continues at LGA airport and should be done by 2020 or so. It will be a huge airport when all set n done.

Severe storms knocking on your door...EC has had a good year for severe wx of late.

#13
OKwx2k4

Posted 31 July 2019 - 06:00 PM

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Liking the ridge-trough alignment I'm seeing as we open the month. So far, only moisture I'm seeing in my future is put of the North/Northwest. This is very different than the last 3 years here.

Old weather myth says that a storm from the south in late summer and autumn kills winter after it.

There has been hardly any true south to north moving storms here this year going back to April. That's a thing of note to me. I love using the environment and remembering things to help guide myself besides modeling. It's nice to let nature speak when you can. It makes observation more enjoyable as well.

I plan sometime before winter gets here to purchase an accurate, vintage or antique (if I'm lucky) barometer if I can find one. I love the way they look and they've always been pretty reliable. A mercury one would be awesome but a dial type ships barometer would be really cool to find as well.

As far as this month is concerned, I still think I'll get 2 halves. I don't have any imagination that the heat and humidity are fully over but I know theres a massive change coming by the end of the month. I can just feel it. Our northern friends are going to experience fall in August this year, in my opinion.
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#14
Tom

Posted 01 August 2019 - 02:44 AM

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We welcome August on a cool and crisp note here this morning (59F/53F).  Another "stunner summer day" is in the forecast with highs in the upper 70's and plenty of sunshine and blue skies.  It's mornings like these where I enjoy getting up early and watching daylight emerge and having the windows open seeping in some cooler air.  

 

As I sip on my mornin' coffee and flip through the models, boy have they turned wet, active and remain cool across the northern Sub.  That southern ridge is going to flex it's muscle throughout this month for those members down south.  I'm going to prepare some LR thoughts in my next post.



#15
Tom

Posted 01 August 2019 - 02:56 AM

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JMA weeklies holding steady from last weeks run and indicating a cooler/wetter pattern ahead for most of our Sub over the next few weeks.  The one region where it will remain hot is Texas as the southern ridge will fight the troughs/cold fronts that swing through starting mid next week.  This will in all likelihood set up a very wet pattern as we progress through the month, esp later next week and beyond.  The NW Flow aloft will allow many waves come out of the Rockies and into the heartland.  It's quite interesting to see how dominant the trough-like pattern that is setting up across Canada over the next 4 weeks.  Autumn is starting early up there.

 

Week 2 temps/precip...

 

Y201907.D3112_gl2.png

 

Y201907.D3112_gl0.png

 

 

Weeks 3-4 temp/precip...

 

Y201907.D3112_gl2.png

 

Y201907.D3112_gl0.png

 

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#16
Tom

Posted 01 August 2019 - 03:31 AM

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A number of sites reporting record or near record low's this morning across the GL's region...

 

 

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#17
james1976

Posted 01 August 2019 - 04:37 AM

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Hello August! It's been in the 50s every morning this week. Cant beat that for the middle of summer. Daylight is quickly decreasing.

#18
Niko

Posted 01 August 2019 - 04:45 AM

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Severe storms knocking on your door...EC has had a good year for severe wx of late.

They were quite strong. We had vivid lightning and very strong winds, but lasted a few minutes. Tremendous downpours. It got wild.

 

EC has been in the sweet spot for storms this Summa indeed. 


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#19
Niko

Posted 01 August 2019 - 04:47 AM

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Currently is a beautiful morning here in the NYC area and less humid w plentiful sunshine. Temps are at 71F as I am drinking my morning Greek coffee. 


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#20
Andie

Posted 01 August 2019 - 06:34 AM

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A warm start to the day.
Currently 85*. Headed to a High of 101*.

Dew point 73*
Humidity 63%.

Generally awful, but this is typical.
If you don't like hot and humid, don't come to Texas! Lol

Normally, it takes a tropical storm or a strong cool front to kick this pattern.
It's very normal for August.

Bring on that cool rain from up north!
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#21
CentralNebWeather

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:07 AM

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A warm start to the day.
Currently 85*. Headed to a High of 101*.

Dew point 73*
Humidity 63%.

Generally awful, but this is typical.
If you don't like hot and humid, don't come to Texas! Lol

Normally, it takes a tropical storm or a strong cool front to kick this pattern.
It's very normal for August.

Bring on that cool rain from up north!


Whoa. We have been in the 60’s all morning with heavy mist and a north wind. Almost feels like late September. I wonder if our rain chances tonight may work south tomorrow
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#22
Sparky

Posted 01 August 2019 - 12:44 PM

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The temperatures are very pleasant lately, but it’s getting seriously dry in parts of eastern Iowa! I think a few spots may only have had a trace of rain in July!

I remember that in several past years during lengthy dry periods occurring before August, that the rains returned in the first half of August. That happened during the huge drought of 1988 and also 2012. And it also occurred on a few other dry summers, but not sure was it in 2011 or 2013, and probably a few other years. Hopefully that will happen again

Looking way back, my real interest in weather (especially t.storms) began in August of 1988 when I scanned the sky for rain clouds. On 8/8/88 I saw a huge storm updraft literally boiling upward almost overhead and I was awestruck, and loved storms ever since! On that August day we only scored around three fourths inch of rain while a few miles se. got 3” from a single storm.
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(‘18 - ‘19 season snowfall total: 52”. ) Greatest season snowfall = 60.5” in 2007 - ‘08

#23
Tom

Posted 02 August 2019 - 03:18 AM

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Good Friday!  Another spectacular day yesterday as I spent most of the day with my nephews and nieces.  We ended the day making a fire about an hour before sunset when the temps cooled into the low 70's.  We've had nearly perfect evenings for bon fires...are there more in sight???  I gotta say, I was not expecting to see significant cold shots this month and what I'm seeing now could be a precursor of what will be an Autumn-like feel around these parts late next week. 

 

What is going to happen up in Canada over the next few weeks is setting the stage for an abrupt end to Summer and a quick start into Autumn.  The sun sets at the north pole around Oct 6th when the new LRC begins.  We still have many more weeks till the new cyclical pattern sets up but hints of it will begin showing up later in Sept.  Regardless what happens in Sept, August is starting to trend towards abnormal cool, at times, cold for late Summer standards.  Autumn coming a month early???  Wound up Autumn Summer storms???  Wild weather is shaping up for Week 2.

 

00z GEFS Week 2...that's gonna be a significant cold shot...straight off the Summer Arctic circle....day time highs in the 60's for some??  The forthcoming temp gradient pattern has a Nina-like look to it.  Nature is going to develop one heckova battle zone across the heartland.

 

 

 

gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_8.png


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#24
Niko

Posted 02 August 2019 - 03:34 AM

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Currently 72F in the NYC area under plentiful sunshine. Some t;stms tomorrow, some severe.



#25
westMJim

Posted 02 August 2019 - 05:17 AM

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With the start of August we are now at the two-thirds mark of meteorological summer. So now is a good time to see just were we are so far,

 

June

June started off on the cool side with 19 of the first 24 days having a temperature below average. Then starting on the 25th things changes and it became warm and it stayed warm through all of July. The warmest day in June of 2019 was 89° on the 29th the coldest low was 40° on the 3rd the month ended with a departure of -1.6° Grand Rapids reported 4.36” of rain fall. There was just one day of reported thunder at Grand Rapids. For the month there were 2 clear days, 17 partly cloudy days and 11 cloudy days.  There was just 51% of possible sunshine during the month.

 

July

July was a very warm month at Grand Rapids the mean for the month was 75.4° that is a departure of +2.9° while that departure doesn’t seem like a lot it is still good for the 15th warmest July here at Grand Rapids. There were 7 days of 90 or better with the warmest being 92° there were 4 more days of 89 and 5 days of 87. For Michigan that is a lot of days in the low 90’s and upper 80’s and on many of the days the dew points were high making it feel warmer. Only 3 days in the month did not reach at least 80 with the coolest high being 78. It should be noted that the highest reading of 92 is the average warmest temperature for July so there were not any unusually hot days this past July. The coolest low for the month was 54 and there were 12 nights were the low did not get below 70 the warmest low for the month was a warm 77 on the 19th that was good for the 3rd warmest minimum for that date. As you know the NWS doesn’t keep records for the Dew Point so while it was very humid there is not way to tell has to how that compares to past years. There were 8 clear days 21 partly cloudy days and 2 cloudy days the possible sunshine was 70% There was a total of 8 thunderstorms reported and for the summer season so far (June and July) there have only been 9 so far.

At Lansing the mean for July was 74.7 that is a departure of +3.2°  that Is good for the 7th warmest July on record at Lansing. The highest temperature for the month was 93 and that happened twice. There were 8 days of 90 or better and 27 days were 80 or better. The coolest high for the month was 78. The coldest low for July was 52° Over at Muskegon the mean for July there was 74.2 and that was a departure of +3.1 the high for the month there was 90 but there were 3 more days of 89 and 2 more at 88. It was the 9th warmest July on record at Muskegon.

So bottom line this has been a warmer than average summer with just one more month to go.


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#26
OKwx2k4

Posted 02 August 2019 - 06:28 AM

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Good Friday! Another spectacular day yesterday as I spent most of the day with my nephews and nieces. We ended the day making a fire about an hour before sunset when the temps cooled into the low 70's. We've had nearly perfect evenings for bon fires...are there more in sight??? I gotta say, I was not expecting to see significant cold shots this month and what I'm seeing now could be a precursor of what will be an Autumn-like feel around these parts late next week.

What is going to happen up in Canada over the next few weeks is setting the stage for an abrupt end to Summer and a quick start into Autumn. The sun sets at the north pole around Oct 6th when the new LRC begins. We still have many more weeks till the new cyclical pattern sets up but hints of it will begin showing up later in Sept. Regardless what happens in Sept, August is starting to trend towards abnormal cool, at times, cold for late Summer standards. Autumn coming a month early??? Wound up Autumn Summer storms??? Wild weather is shaping up for Week 2.

00z GEFS Week 2...that's gonna be a significant cold shot...straight off the Summer Arctic circle....day time highs in the 60's for some?? The forthcoming temp gradient pattern has a Nina-like look to it. Nature is going to develop one heckova battle zone across the heartland.



gfs-ens_T2maMean_us_8.png


Going to be a whole new world down here after that ridge migrates west and stands up. Just a matter of time. I cannot wait.

#27
james1976

Posted 02 August 2019 - 06:54 PM

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Perfect night for a bonfire with the girlfriend! I'm busy often but tonight worked out nicely and the weather is spectacular.

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#28
james1976

Posted 02 August 2019 - 07:04 PM

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Dang sorry for the sideways photo. You get the idea though!
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#29
Tom

Posted 03 August 2019 - 03:22 AM

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Could it finally happen?  I've been yearning all season long to see this happen in reality instead of the model world.  If you take a look at last nights 00z GFS 500mb run, look closely at the North Pole and you will see a small feature pin wheel its way around over the Pole, then track south hugging the north Alaskan coast into the NW Territories of Canada, which eventually tracks near Hudson Bay and then crashes into the N GL's!  Pretty incredible to see a piece of the Stratospheric Vortex track that far south in late Summer.  There is ensemble support for a major trough to inundate the region later next weekend so we'll see how this plays out.

 

 

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#30
Hawkeye

Posted 03 August 2019 - 04:56 AM

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I think NOAA put out a week 2 outlook that showed above average precip over much of the midwest, but I'm just not seeing it on the models.  The central plains look wet, but not here.


season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#31
Niko

Posted 03 August 2019 - 05:26 AM

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Currently at 79F here in the NY metro area under beautiful sunny skies.



#32
Andie

Posted 03 August 2019 - 05:42 AM

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Woah, different morning here.

78* Cloudy. Heading for 97*
Humidity at 81%. Eck

Scattered showers just north of me, with a strong system of showers moving down from Okla. and the Red River.
The rain will be nice to get.
You can keep this steam bath.
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#33
westMJim

Posted 03 August 2019 - 09:04 AM

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Even with all the warm days and humidity since the last week of June Grand Rapids has only had 9 thunderstorms in the months of June and July and of course none so far this August so the thunderstorm drought continues here in Grand Rapids. Looking ahead it looks to be very cool next weekend and who know maybe the whole month of August will be cooler than average (that would be a good bet) The current temperature here at my house is 85 with lots of sunshine.



#34
Andie

Posted 03 August 2019 - 03:35 PM

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Crazy day for Aug 2.
High of 89*
DP 73*.
It’s humid, air thick and suffocating.
50% chance scattered showers. Won’t happen 😃
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#35
Tom

Posted 04 August 2019 - 03:31 AM

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One of the warmer mornings over the past week and slightly humid (71F/66F).  Turned on the A/C later in the afternoon after a little break.  Looks like a few more warmer and humid days with a decent chance of storms Mon night from the 1st CF tracking across the region.  By end of the week, another delightful pattern settles in with highs near 80F and plenty of sunshine.  



#36
Tom

Posted 04 August 2019 - 05:04 AM

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Alright, alright, alright....it's been a long while since I've paid attention to the East Asian Theory and another LR tool I've studied and learned to use which I'm going to share with you again and name it the "Sea of Okhotsk Rule". I'm not quite sure if there are any studies done using the second LR forecasting method, maybe I'm the first, maybe not, but the first year where I "saw" this vision was in the Autumn of '16. It was that year when the PAC NW kept getting pounded over and over again while we torched that Winter season. I recall a deep trough that continued to rotate around the Sea of Okhotsk which correlated to a deep trough in the PAC NW and Western Canada. There is a 5-7 day lag period for systems/troughs that end up into our Continent.

Anyhow, it is my personal opinion, but doesn't it seem like the atmosphere is showing signs of getting primed up way early this year??? September in August? Normally I start paying attention to this part of the wold in September, but the western Typhoon season is about to amp up early and often this week and beyond. So, here we go, the models have been relatively volatile of late and there are reasons to this as we look out closely into East Asia. All the models are developing "Twin Typhoons" in the western PAC near Japan later this week that may come close to phasing into one large storm. That would be pretty wild to see. More importantly, these systems will likely re-curve given the pattern and effect our weather pattern downstream which will lead into a stormy and cooler regime.

Using the Sea of Okhotsk method, notice the deep trough over the Sea region by Day 5, this correlates into a deep trough across western Canada by Day 10/11. Low and behold, this is what both the GEFS/EPS are suggesting and a build up of cold that has eyes into the central CONUS.


ecmwf_z500a_npac_6.png



ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_10.png
ecmwf-ens_T850a_namer_11.png



My gut is telling me we are heading into an awfully exciting period of weather, both globally, and locally speaking. Over the next number of weeks, we will be witnessing some very unusual weather across our continent. I have no doubt in my mind, Autumn will be here knocking on our door step at times this month, but more so, as we head into early Sept. Enjoy your Sunday!

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#37
Niko

Posted 04 August 2019 - 05:20 AM

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Currently 75F w sunny skies here in the NYC Metro area. Was in Times Square last night and suddenly a very hvy downpour came down. Lasted about 20 minutes. People were taking shelter, others were running, taking bike cabs and etc.


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#38
Andie

Posted 04 August 2019 - 08:19 AM

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High of 89*. 88* already
DP 76*
Humidity at 71%

Suffocating.

Tomorrow temps will be rising here. We'll be 100*-101* by Thursday for a 5-7 days.

Typical Texas summer. We need some of this to dry out areas, kill fungus and such that grew from all that rain.
Our area climate isn't made for cool damp long term. East Texas can manage the moisture but Ft. Worth is on the eastern edge of West Tx climate. Texas is a peculiar state. We have desert to plains to wet pines. You can't just forecast Texas as a whole and say that's it.
But Thank God for A/C !
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#39
MIKEKC

Posted 04 August 2019 - 02:16 PM

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I sure hope there are some changes coming, we are dry in most parts of KC and have been since June 1st. Yes, the official reporting station for KC showed much above totals for June, but 90 percent of that total came in a 12 hour period around the 25th. I have only recorded 7 days of rainfall since June 1st and two of those days were .25 or less.

Hopefully the central plains can see some more widespread rainfalls as we move through August. There have been a few deluges in some areas of the plains, but widespread rains have been hard to come across since May.

Thanks for all the great information/forecasting Tom, you keep it exciting!!!
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#40
westMJim

Posted 04 August 2019 - 02:48 PM

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At this time it is sunny and a warm 87 here at my house but just to the east of me there is what appears to be a very heavy thunderstorm and it is very dark off to the east and NE, There has not been a thunderstorm here at my house since July 20th and only 7 thunderstorms in June and July combined 



#41
james1976

Posted 04 August 2019 - 05:14 PM

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Another beautiful summer evening! Clear skies, pleasant temps, low humidity and locust making noise! Out on the deck grilling some awesome food and taking it all in. Sun is already setting. Autumn is coming fast!
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#42
james1976

Posted 04 August 2019 - 07:27 PM

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Local met has mid 80s and humid next weekend. That Aug 6-12 cooldown is not looking to pan out. Couple days around 80 is the best we may get.

#43
Tom

Posted 05 August 2019 - 03:07 AM

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Enhanced Risk for much of the MW region for later tonight...CAM's show MN/IA are in the best spot for action later this afternoon...

 

 

 

day1otlk_1200.gif


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#44
St Paul Storm

Posted 05 August 2019 - 04:09 AM

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Severe thunderstorm watch just posted, until 3pm. Looks like damaging winds may be the biggest threat. Not sure what to expect locally. Some cams have the approaching line from the NW dying before it reaches here and then refiring south. Others have the line blasting through. Shear actually looks halfway decent so I wouldn’t be surprised if a tornado or two spins up.

#45
Hawkeye

Posted 05 August 2019 - 04:37 AM

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I wish it was 'enhanced' for rain instead of wind.


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season snowfall: 50.2"

 

'17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#46
Niko

Posted 05 August 2019 - 04:48 AM

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Currently 73F here in NYC and feels fairly comfortable outside. Possible t'stms tomorrow. Perhaps strong to locally severe. What a beautiful stretch of days here.



#47
East Dubzz

Posted 05 August 2019 - 05:01 AM

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Man I hope we get some rain tonight. 


2019 Statistics (Starting 3/23/19)

Total rainfall: 20.32"

August rainfall total: 1.47"

Largest 24-hour rainfall: 1.60" (7/18)

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 2


#48
Andie

Posted 05 August 2019 - 05:32 AM

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Enhanced Risk for much of the MW region for later tonight...CAM's show MN/IA are in the best spot for action later this afternoon...


Not a chance here.
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

2018 Rainfall - 62.65"
High Temp. - 110.03*
Low Temp. - 8.4*

#49
St Paul Storm

Posted 05 August 2019 - 06:22 AM

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Enhanced area pulled northeast quite a bit.

Attached Files


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#50
Iowawx

Posted 05 August 2019 - 08:12 AM

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I am hoping for and expecting some heavy rains tonight. I finished July about 2 inches below normal for rainfall here. Things are getting really dry around here and that is not good. The normal rainfall here for the month of August is 4.43 inches. 

 

I hope to get at least 0.5" but would really like to get as close to an inch as possible.