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August 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

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#1
Omegaraptor

Posted 31 July 2019 - 08:13 PM

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Welcome to August. July ended slightly above normal at PDX, a departure that was mostly carried by the lows. The monthly high was right around average. 80.2/60.3 is the stats for July 1-30.

Any predictions for August? I’m guessing around average, leaning a bit towards above.

2018 in Portland had 27.30" rainfall, which is the 8th driest year on record and 8.73" below normal

 

Current rainfall for PDX in 2019 is 15.13”, which is 4.97” below normal as of August 19


#2
GHweatherChris

Posted 31 July 2019 - 08:23 PM

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It's July 31st....

#3
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 31 July 2019 - 10:39 PM

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Warmer and drier than normal seems a safe bet.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Feb 25)
Coldest low: 20 (Mar 4)
Days with below freezing temps: 46
Total snowfall: 20.2"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#4
iFred

Posted 31 July 2019 - 11:45 PM

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Will the Grand Solar Minimum mean early frosts, rains, and just an early fall all together?

Probably not. 


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#5
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 August 2019 - 07:09 AM

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57 and cloudy at 8am. We will see about this rain coming in tonight into tomorrow morning. Looks like the Olympic peninsula should do better id be surprised if we got more than a tenth of an inch here in Tacoma because of how Far East we are.

#6
seattleweatherguy

Posted 01 August 2019 - 07:10 AM

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57 and cloudy at 8am. We will see about this rain coming in tonight into tomorrow morning. Looks like the Olympic peninsula should do better id be surprised if we got more than a tenth of an inch here in Tacoma because of how Far East we are.

 

Hopefully rain and hold off until after 10 pm so we can have a nice day



#7
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 07:10 AM

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Beautiful sunny morning here.



#8
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 07:11 AM

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Hopefully rain and hold off until after 10 pm so we can have a nice day

 

 

It will.

 

Rain comes through early tomorrow morning... and then its sunny and warm again by afternoon.



#9
seattleweatherguy

Posted 01 August 2019 - 07:20 AM

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It will.

Rain comes through early tomorrow morning... and then its sunny and warm again by afternoon.


Thanks much respect for you and everyone else here. Learning more everyday
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#10
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 August 2019 - 07:49 AM

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12z looks a little wetter for western WA. Still bullseyes Vancouver island obviously but good to see the moderate drought area on the Olympic Peninsula get some good rain.
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#11
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 August 2019 - 07:56 AM

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Pretty impressive rainfall amounts being forecast for central and northern Vancouver Island. Even up to 2” for the east side of the island, which would be close to double their monthly average
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#12
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2019 - 07:57 AM

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12z looks a little wetter for western WA. Still bullseyes Vancouver island obviously but good to see the moderate drought area on the Olympic Peninsula get some good rain.


This is good news.
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#13
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 August 2019 - 08:27 AM

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Ugh, we do not need anymore rain, I should not have to mow my yard this many times in a summer.

#14
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 08:42 AM

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Biggest change for tomorrow on the GFS and WRF is slightly slower timing.

 

It might actually still be sunny in the early morning tomorrow from Seattle eastward... but then the clearing tomorrow afternoon is also slower leading to cooler highs.



#15
seattleweatherguy

Posted 01 August 2019 - 08:47 AM

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Starting to get cloudy here maybe cooler temps and more sticky feel?

#16
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 August 2019 - 08:49 AM

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Suns starting to break through the clouds here in Tacoma. Should be another beautiful day here today. Currently 67 after a low of 57. The 2nd half of tomorrow doesn’t look bad at all. Gfs showing showers on Wednesday, Thursday and next Sunday on the 12z as well. No real heat either, Monday look like the warmest day out of the next 10, with highs in the mid to upper 80s in western WA and maybe some low 90s in western OR.

#17
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 08:49 AM

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Starting to get cloudy here maybe cooler temps and more sticky feel?

 

Clouds are just temporary there... it will be sunny all afternoon.

 

Totally sunny here and the clouds are moving away... towards the NW.  



#18
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 08:52 AM

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Suns starting to break through the clouds here in Tacoma. Should be another beautiful day here today. Currently 67 after a low of 57. The 2nd half of tomorrow doesn’t look bad at all. Gfs showing showers on Wednesday, Thursday and next Sunday on the 12z as well. No real heat either, Monday look like the warmest day out of the next 10, with highs in the mid to upper 80s in western WA and maybe some low 90s in western OR.

 

The situation next week will be very difficult for the models to pin down.    It will come down to the exact placement of meandering ULLs.    Could be hot... or it could actually rain at times... or both.



#19
Omegaraptor

Posted 01 August 2019 - 08:59 AM

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Thanks much respect for you and everyone else here. Learning more everyday


Hey man, back when I joined in October I pretty much only used forecasts. I’ve come a long way, but I’m no professional meteorologist by any means.

2018 in Portland had 27.30" rainfall, which is the 8th driest year on record and 8.73" below normal

 

Current rainfall for PDX in 2019 is 15.13”, which is 4.97” below normal as of August 19


#20
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 August 2019 - 09:03 AM

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73F in Springfield. Looks like another beautiful day on tap.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 18-19 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Feb 25)
Coldest low: 20 (Mar 4)
Days with below freezing temps: 46
Total snowfall: 20.2"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#21
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 August 2019 - 09:38 AM

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The situation next week will be very difficult for the models to pin down. It will come down to the exact placement of meandering ULLs. Could be hot... or it could actually rain at times... or both.

it feels like it’s been harder to track rain this summer than it was to track where it was going to snow in February lol. Models are all over the place with the new euro and gfs updates.

#22
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2019 - 09:46 AM

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Any word on GEM or Icon’s take on next week’s ULL behavior?

#23
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 August 2019 - 09:47 AM

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Welcome to August.

Any predictions for August? I’m guessing around average, leaning a bit towards above.


I'm still sticking to my original prediction of a cooler than normal month. For this month, I will put more weight into cooler highs if we end up with overall positive departures. 😂

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#24
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 August 2019 - 09:47 AM

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it feels like it’s been harder to track rain this summer than it was to track where it was going to snow in February lol. Models are all over the place with the new euro and gfs updates.

Probably more to do with the seasonal thing than the model updates.
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#25
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2019 - 09:50 AM

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I'm still sticking to my original prediction of a cooler than normal month. For this month, I will put more weight into cooler highs if we end up with overall positive departures. 😂


I guess at least you are up front about your lack of objectivity.

#26
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 August 2019 - 09:50 AM

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Any word on GEM or Icon’s take on next week’s ULL behavior?

Fairly similar to GFS. Tracks slowly south offshore to west of Oregon by the middle of the week. Then lifts NE and merges with a second trough dropping in from the north.
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#27
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2019 - 09:52 AM

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Fairly similar to GFS. Tracks slowly south offshore to west of Oregon by the middle of the week. Then lifts NE and merges with a second trough dropping in from the north.


At least not as extreme with the cutting off as last night’s Euro. Sounds like that is our worst case scenario at the moment.

#28
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 August 2019 - 09:59 AM

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I guess at least you are up front about your lack of objectivity.


Just trying to have some fun.

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#29
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:04 AM

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Good news... the 12Z ECMWF does not show the slower timing with the front tomorrow.

 

About the same rainfall totals as the 00Z run... and the timing is still in the morning for the Seattle area with sun and highs in the low 80s by afternoon.



#30
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:16 AM

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Can’t post videos so have to take screenshots of the videos.

Gaffing the big Halibut.

PncG8LO.jpg
y6XVq0t.jpg

Calm Seas.

oVZZBo6.jpg
WQDxRWy.jpg


That sucks you had to throw it back. Halibut make tasty fish and chips. Gotta head to Burgerville for lunch now and get me some.

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#31
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:17 AM

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A perfect summer weekend ahead here per the 12Z ECMWF... no low clouds anywhere.    Just wall-to-wall sunshine and warm.  

 

But its pretty likely that Portland will reach 90 on both days this weekend.


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#32
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:19 AM

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A perfect summer weekend ahead per the 12Z ECMWF... no low clouds anywhere.    Just wall-to-wall sunshine and warm.  

 

OPINION. In my opinion this weather sucks. Can't wait for rain and cooler temps. Summer cannot end soon enough. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#33
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:20 AM

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About the time of year everyone at work starts complaining about the sun and dry weather and longing for the fall rains. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#34
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:22 AM

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OPINION. In my opinion this weather sucks. Can't wait for rain and cooler temps. Summer cannot end soon enough. 

 

 

Sucks for you.   Endless sunshine and temps in the low to mid 80s sounds pretty awesome here.    

 

Hopefully summer keeps rolling right through September.   



#35
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:24 AM

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About the time of year everyone at work starts complaining about the sun and dry weather and longing for the fall rains. 

 

 

Not around here.    People are still cautiously optimistic that summer is actually hitting its stride now.   Took forever.   Lots of people were lamenting the year without summer when it was raining and cloudy almost every day in mid-July.

 

But then we live in VERY different places!   Right Andrew?    :lol:



#36
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:25 AM

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This time of year is mostly just achingly dull for any true weather enthusiast. I definitely start getting antsy for the more active season by the time August rolls around.

#37
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:26 AM

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Looks like the Euro is still clinging to its new hot garbage solution for early next week.

#38
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:26 AM

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12Z ECMWF shows 95 for Portland on Sunday.

 

But only in the pleasant 80s up here.   ;)


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#39
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:30 AM

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Not around here.    People are still cautiously optimistic that summer is actually hitting its stride now.   Took forever.   Lots of people were lamenting the year without summer when it was raining and cloudy almost every day in mid-July.

 

But then we live in VERY different places!   Right Andrew?    :lol:

 

Well you also work with a bunch of beta cucks and soft yuppies. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#40
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:30 AM

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This time of year is mostly just achingly dull for any true weather enthusiast. I definitely start getting antsy for the more active season by the time August rolls around.

October can’t come soon enough. Only 2 months, maybe some thunderstorms or some type of interesting weather will happen before then.

#41
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:30 AM

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This time of year is mostly just achingly dull for any true weather enthusiast. I definitely start getting antsy for the more active season by the time August rolls around.

 

Nothing to do but troll and act like women.


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#42
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:31 AM

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Just woke up today and decided one Dome Buster is not enough...


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#43
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:32 AM

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Well you also work with a bunch of beta cucks and soft yuppies. 

 

And you are being a total d*ck.   I am not even talking about my co-workers.  

 

But then we went almost a month with very little sun up here in the middle of summer... so our experience up here is completely different than your experience.

 

Why in the hell would people have the same exact opinions about totally different weather?     :lol:



#44
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:32 AM

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Not around here.    People are still cautiously optimistic that summer is actually hitting its stride now.   Took forever.   Lots of people were lamenting the year without summer when it was raining and cloudy almost every day in mid-July.

 

But then we live in VERY different places!   Right Andrew?    :lol:

 

It rained a few times in July. We had close to an inch on the month I think. Things up at the house are still pretty green. Real people love it when the weather is cloudy and pleasant in the summer.


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#45
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:34 AM

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This definitely doesn’t look like a map you see in early August. Should be a little breezy tomorrow morning then transition into a nice day.

Attached Files



#46
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:35 AM

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It rained a few times in July. We had close to an inch on the month I think. Things up at the house are still pretty green. Real people love it when the weather is cloudy and pleasant in the summer.

 

Yeah... a little rain is really nice.  

 

But not a month of clouds... that is not even close to normal.      Sh*t happens.    Finally feels like summer for a little while.  



#47
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:36 AM

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Yeah... a little rain is really nice.  

 

But not a month of clouds... that is not even close to normal.      Sh*t happens.    Finally feels like summer for a little while.  

 

Bombast aside. This is about the most average PNW summer I have seen in quite a while. 2011 and 2012 were the other way. This summer reminds me a lot of the summer of 2007. 


Snowfall

2018-19: 63.5"

2017-18: 30.3"

2016-17: 49.2"

2015-16: 11.75"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#48
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:38 AM

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12Z ECMWF is warm and sunny for the Monday - Wednesday period... but cooler than the 00Z run.   

 

Looks like 80s to near 90 down south on those days.



#49
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:40 AM

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12Z ECMWF shows 95 for Portland on Sunday.

But only in the pleasant 80s up here. ;)


That just brightened up my day. 🌞

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#50
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:41 AM

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Bombast aside. This is about the most average PNW summer I have seen in quite a while. 2011 and 2012 were the other way. This summer reminds me a lot of the summer of 2007. 

 

 

Great.   And you have spent it all in Oregon.  

 

Its been fairly average here too... but a month of clouds was not normal up here.    I have seen a week of clouds in the summer... even 2 weeks.   But a month is very unusual.    That is just a fact.   You did not experience that so you have no point of reference.    Sh*t happens.   It was a sunny spring... and the payback was a case of bad timing.