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August 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

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#51
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:42 AM

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Some improvements from Monday going forward on the 12z Euro compared to the 00z run, as it keeps the ULL just a bit closer to us.

More aggressive with ejecting the ULL inland late in the week too.

#52
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:47 AM

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12z Euro shows a legitimately interesting 500mb progression for early August next week. Would be ok with this one verifying.

#53
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:47 AM

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Some improvements from Monday going forward on the 12z Euro compared to the 00z run, as it keeps the ULL just a bit closer to us.

More aggressive with ejecting the ULL inland late in the week too.

 

 

Hopefully it will follow the same script as this week... a little rain late in the week and a sunny weekend.



#54
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:48 AM

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Great.   And you have spent it all in Oregon.  

 

Its been fairly average here too... but a month of clouds was not normal up here.    I have seen a week of clouds in the summer... even 2 weeks.   But a month is very unusual.    That is just a fact.   You did not experience that so you have no point of reference.    Sh*t happens.   It was a sunny spring... and the payback was a case of bad timing.

 

I've spent two weekends in Washington since June 1st. The weather was a bit cloudy both weekends, but it was fine. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 13.6" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#55
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:51 AM

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I've spent two weekends in Washington since June 1st. The weather was a bit cloudy both weekends, but it was fine.

Great.

And I think your weather is just fine now.

Now what?

#56
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:51 AM

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60+ lows in July

 

PDX 21

EUG 4

SLE  3 


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Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 13.6" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#57
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:52 AM

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I've spent two weekends in Washington since June 1st. The weather was a bit cloudy both weekends, but it was fine.


We camped at White River on Mt. Rainier mid month and it rained at some point each day. We set up tarps and had a great time.

#58
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:55 AM

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60+ lows in July

PDX 21
EUG 4
SLE 3


Even VUO which is still in the heart of the metro and just a few miles away as the crow flies had half as many.

11 there versus 21 at PDX.

#59
Omegaraptor

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:56 AM

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I’d like the ULL to stay in the same place or trend a little south. Right now it’s in a nearly ideal spot to reduce fire danger at Mt Shasta.
No rain here until Hour 258.

#60
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:56 AM

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Even VUO which is still in the heart of the metro and just a few miles away as the crow flies had half as many.

 

With the UHI acting like the # of 60+ lows at PDX means anything is pretty silly. 

 

Not a ton of it going on here, but some of the Facebook groups are blowing up about it. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 13.6" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#61
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:57 AM

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I’d like the ULL to stay in the same place or trend a little south. Right now it’s in a nearly ideal spot to reduce fire danger at Mt Shasta.


I’d like some Burgerville.

#62
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 August 2019 - 10:59 AM

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Can’t help but think we may see some convection next week. Maybe wishful thinking

#63
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2019 - 11:01 AM

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Can’t help but think we may see some convection next week. Maybe wishful thinking


Was thinking the same thing browsing the Euro.

#64
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 August 2019 - 11:01 AM

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About to head out for lunch. Beautiful day with temps in the upper 70s so far with lots of sunshine. TWC nailed yesterday's high of 87 for PDX and today have 89 as the high. So possibly 90 degrees today if we can get lucky. Then for Sat to Tues, they are currently going for 89/93/91/90.
<p><font size="4"><font color="purple"><b>Psalm 148:8 <font color="violet">Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!</font></b></font></font>

#65
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2019 - 11:03 AM

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Ugh, we do not need anymore rain, I should not have to mow my yard this many times in a summer.

 

Speak to the map.

 

Attached File  60dPNormWA.png   90.15KB   0 downloads


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Low. Solar.


#66
Kayla

Posted 01 August 2019 - 11:03 AM

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Nothing to do but troll and act like 7th grade boys.

 

You misspelled your last word there so I went ahead and took the liberty to fix it for you.


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Cold Season 2019/20:

Total snowfall: 90.0"

Highest daily snowfall: 12.0"

Highest snow depth: 15.0"

Coldest high: 12.0º

Coldest low: -9.1º

Number of subzero days: 2

 

Personal Weather Station on Wunderground: 

https://www.wundergr...OZEM152#history


#67
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 11:04 AM

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12Z ECMWF is really nice... Thursday still looks great and then it shows a little rain on Friday (but highs still into the 70s) and then sunny and warm by Saturday again.

 

That would be pretty close to repeat of this week.   :)



#68
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 August 2019 - 11:04 AM

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Speak to the map.

60dPNormWA.png


Don't tell me what to do!
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#69
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 August 2019 - 11:04 AM

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You misspelled your last word there so I went ahead and took the liberty to fix it for you.

 

Fair enough...


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 13.6" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#70
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2019 - 11:06 AM

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About to head out for lunch. Beautiful day with temps in the upper 70s so far with lots of sunshine. TWC nailed yesterday's high of 87 for PDX and today have 89 as the high. So possibly 90 degrees today if we can get lucky. Then for Sat to Tues, they are currently going for 89/93/91/90.


No need for worthless TWC updates here. We can all see it on our phones.

#71
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2019 - 11:09 AM

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Not around here.    People are still cautiously optimistic that summer is actually hitting its stride now.   Took forever.   Lots of people were lamenting the year without summer when it was raining and cloudy almost every day in mid-July.

 

But then we live in VERY different places!   Right Andrew?    :lol:

 

You should remind them that SEA saw 44 70+ highs March-June.

 

Lots of warm, dry days with summery temps before that soul-crushing two week mostly cloudy with occasional rain period in July.


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Low. Solar.


#72
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 August 2019 - 11:10 AM

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You misspelled your last word there so I went ahead and took the liberty to fix it for you.


Wow?

#73
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 11:13 AM

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You should remind them that SEA saw 44 70+ highs March-June.

 

Lots of warm, dry days with summery temps before that soul-crushing two week mostly cloudy with occasional rain period in July.

 

 

It was an unusually cloudy month around here from mid-June through mid-July... just a fact.    And that timing sucks... no matter what happened before.



#74
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2019 - 11:14 AM

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Great.   And you have spent it all in Oregon.  

 

Its been fairly average here too... but a month of clouds was not normal up here.    I have seen a week of clouds in the summer... even 2 weeks.   But a month is very unusual.    That is just a fact.   You did not experience that so you have no point of reference.    Sh*t happens.   It was a sunny spring... and the payback was a case of bad timing.

 

That was not the vast majority of WA, though. Just your little microclimate. 

 

It was unusually cloudy for 2 weeks for the Puget Sound region. After an unusually sunny overall 3 month period. Horrors.


Low. Solar.


#75
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2019 - 11:20 AM

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It was an unusually cloudy month around here from mid-June through mid-July... just a fact.    And that timing sucks... no matter what happened before.

 

And you will find a reason to complain...no matter what the timing of cloudy/rainy periods are.

 

But acting like summer took forever to arrive this year when there was plenty of summery weather before July is just silly. I remember talking with a Zillow rep who was out here in mid June, and she was gushing about how "summer had arrived early" this year in May. According to you, though, all that is forgotten if you have to endure a cloudier than normal period in mid summer.  :lol:


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#76
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 11:21 AM

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That was not the vast majority of WA, though. Just your little microclimate. 

 

It was unusually cloudy for 2 weeks for the Puget Sound region. After an unusually sunny overall 3 month period. Horrors.

 

Horrors!   Yes.

 

Like the horror of normal summer weather in Oregon.    :)

 

Anyways... it was an unusually cloudy 4-week period for almost all of King County and actually a pretty part of western WA.    Oh well.   No need to try and qualify it or tell us it did not happen.   It most certainly did.      

 

There are lot of opinions today!! 



#77
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 11:23 AM

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And you will find a reason to complain...no matter what the timing of cloudy/rainy periods are.

 

But acting like summer took forever to arrive this year when there was plenty of summery weather before July is just silly. I remember talking with a Zillow rep who was out here in mid June, and she was gushing about how "summer had arrived early" this year in May. According to you, though, all that is forgotten if you have to endure a cloudier than normal period in mid summer.  :lol:

 

 

Yep.

 

It was forgotten by many people after a month of clouds and frequent rain.    Human nature.

 

It sucked.    Sh*t happens.   Bad timing.   

 

No reason to rehash it again.    



#78
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2019 - 11:31 AM

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Horrors!   Yes.

 

Like the horror of normal summer weather in Oregon.    :)

 

Anyways... it was an unusually cloudy 4-week period for almost all of King County and actually a pretty part of western WA.    Oh well.   No need to try and qualify it or tell us it did not happen.   It most certainly did.      

 

There are lot of opinions today!! 

 

Were you everywhere at all times in King County over that 4 week period?

 

SEA had 17 mostly cloudy or cloudy days from Jun 15 to Jul 15, defined as days with more than 70% cloud cover (and keep in mind, high/mid level cloud cover counts as well). We've seen how even very sunny months from previous years managed to go down as 40-50% cloud cover months, so these numbers definitely err on the cloudier side.

 

That means for that month that was so terrible at your location, almost half the days at SEA were partly or mostly sunny.

 

You often project your personal experience at your location to all of King County, and this is another example of that.


Low. Solar.


#79
Front Ranger

Posted 01 August 2019 - 11:32 AM

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Yep.

 

It was forgotten by many people after a month of clouds and frequent rain.    Human nature.

 

It sucked.    Sh*t happens.   Bad timing.   

 

No reason to rehash it again.    

 

Sorry, but that is not an accurate description of that period for the vast majority of people in King County.


Low. Solar.


#80
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 11:40 AM

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Were you everywhere at all times in King County over that 4 week period?

 

SEA had 17 mostly cloudy or cloudy days from Jun 15 to Jul 15, defined as days with more than 70% cloud cover (and keep in mind, high/mid level cloud cover counts as well).

 

That means for that month that was so terrible at your location, almost half the days at SEA were partly to mostly sunny.

 

You often project your personal experience at your location to all of King County, and this is another example of that.

 

Numerous people around King County reported the same thing on here.   Even people who liked the clouds said that it was quite unusual and persistent.

 

You are re-writing history now and saying it was just me.   It was not.    Stop rehashing old crap.



#81
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2019 - 11:47 AM

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Wonder how bad Tim will get if we go through another seasonably cool 7-10 days at some point in August.
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#82
1000'NorthBend

Posted 01 August 2019 - 11:50 AM

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And you will find a reason to complain...no matter what the timing of cloudy/rainy periods are.

 

But acting like summer took forever to arrive this year when there was plenty of summery weather before July is just silly. I remember talking with a Zillow rep who was out here in mid June, and she was gushing about how "summer had arrived early" this year in May. According to you, though, all that is forgotten if you have to endure a cloudier than normal period in mid summer.  :lol:

You are both be correct, it's all framing. July was abnormally cloudy in King County and March to July was warmer and sunnier than normal in King County. You're arguing about preferences, not actual data. This forum seems to talk less about "___er than average" and more about "___er than I'd prefer". 


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#83
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 11:50 AM

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Wonder how bad Tim will get if we go through another seasonably cool 7-10 days at some point in August.

 

 

2 weeks of clouds and cool weather is not too unusual around here at any point in the summer.   

 

A month straight sort of sucks.   But sometimes the weather is crappier than usual.   Oh well!    



#84
GHweatherChris

Posted 01 August 2019 - 11:52 AM

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This summer has beem great from the start up to now.

#85
Jesse

Posted 01 August 2019 - 11:53 AM

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2 weeks of clouds and cool weather is not too unusual around here at any point in the summer.

A month straight sort of sucks. But sometimes the weather is crappier than usual. Oh well!


Nothing says “oh well” like hundreds of repetitive, whiny posts.

#86
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 11:55 AM

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You are both be correct, it's all framing. July was abnormally cloudy in King County and March to July was warmer and sunnier than normal in King County. You're arguing about preferences, not actual data. This forum seems to talk less about "___er than average" and more about "___er than I'd prefer". 

 

 

Yeah... no idea why this is being discussed again.

 

Jared is in an argumentative mood.    As usual.



#87
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 11:58 AM

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Nothing says “oh well” like hundreds of repetitive, whiny posts.

 

 

Yeah... I brought this up today!   Andrew did and Jared is continuing it... and neither of them live even remotely close to King County.    :rolleyes:

 

None of this will change what actually happened or my view on it.    

 

Lets get back to whining that its not raining during the driest part of the year.



#88
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 August 2019 - 12:01 PM

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Just was thinking about how we haven't even had to put the window AC units in this summer. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 13.6" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#89
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 August 2019 - 12:01 PM

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75 and sunny at 1pm.
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#90
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 August 2019 - 12:03 PM

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July came in cooler than normal over in the John Day Valley.

 

https://www.bluemoun...6cf200820f.html


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 13.6" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#91
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 12:04 PM

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75 and sunny at 1pm.


78 and sunny here.
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#92
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 01 August 2019 - 12:09 PM

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75 and sunny at 1pm.

78 and sunny here.


81 here with 🌞.
<p><font size="4"><font color="purple"><b>Psalm 148:8 <font color="violet">Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!</font></b></font></font>

#93
Requiem

Posted 01 August 2019 - 12:10 PM

Requiem

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Off-topic, I've been also thinking of applying at University of Montana. I've always wanted to live there, and I think I meet all of their requirements. That is, of course, if I get outright rejected by Wazzu or OSU.


  • Chewbacca Defense and Frontal Snowsquall like this

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 0" :(


#94
Omegaraptor

Posted 01 August 2019 - 12:11 PM

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Here’s the newest article from Cliff “Why isn’t Seattle literally Fresno” Mass, regarding rain. What a surprise.

https://cliffmass.bl...in-and.html?m=0
  • Frontal Snowsquall likes this
No rain here until Hour 258.

#95
TT-SEA

Posted 01 August 2019 - 12:11 PM

TT-SEA

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Off-topic, I've been also thinking of applying at University of Montana. I've always wanted to live there, and I think I meet all of their requirements. That is, of course, if I get outright rejected by Wazzu or OSU.

 

WSU and OSU reject people?  



#96
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 August 2019 - 12:15 PM

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Off-topic, I've been also thinking of applying at University of Montana. I've always wanted to live there, and I think I meet all of their requirements. That is, of course, if I get outright rejected by Wazzu or OSU.

 

How could you get rejected by Oregon State? Maybe if your GPA is under 2.5 or something.


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 13.6" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#97
Requiem

Posted 01 August 2019 - 12:20 PM

Requiem

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How could you get rejected by Oregon State? Maybe if your GPA is under 2.5 or something.


No, definitely not under 2.5 but still pretty bad. Around a 3.1 last I checked. This year was rough haha

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 0" :(


#98
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 01 August 2019 - 12:25 PM

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No, definitely not under 2.5 but still pretty bad. Around a 3.1 last I checked. This year was rough haha

 

If your SAT/ACT scores are good it won't matter. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 13.6" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#99
jakeinthevalley

Posted 01 August 2019 - 12:48 PM

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Guidance is still holding on to highs in the mid 80's down here Friday. Imagine it's going to be a little muggy if the rain showers materialize overnight, followed by a quick warm up.


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#100
Deweydog

Posted 01 August 2019 - 01:03 PM

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The jinx of the #iceboxsnark is playing out nicely so far...
All roads lead to Walgreens.