August 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[Deweydog]

Low solar.

 

UHI.

[Jesse]

So do you.

I do.

[MossMan]

It’s over.

[Jesse]

Growing ensemble support for the late month heatwave.

 

12z GFS has it starting in about a week.

 

[ShawniganLake]

You have a dark sense of humour.

Maybe a little. I definitely enjoy sarcasm.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

046DDDE5-F28E-48E8-97AC-1901D835BC04.png

Going to need another 3rd straight major SSW event!

[MossMan]

Growing ensemble support for the late month heatwave.

 

12z GFS has it starting in about a week.

 

DF98E480-5E50-442B-A6B1-FA48BA76D04F.png

Perfection!

[Frontal Snowsquall]

The 12z EURO precipitation totals through Wednesday 10pm. Looks good from around Kelso south. Higher totals for the Southern Valley. Awesome to see this in August.

 

[Jesse]

Euro seems to be dragging its feet a little compared to some previous runs, though. Still gets us there eventually.

[MossMan]

The 12z EURO precipitation totals through Wednesday 10pm. Looks good from around Kelso south. Higher totals for the Southern Valley. Awesome to see this in August.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019082012_41_5618_220.png

Looks like I cleaned my gutters for nothing. Looking meager up here now.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

Will be a welcome rain as we have been below normal.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Looks like I cleaned my gutters for nothing. Looking meager up here now.

Don't feel too bad. If the EURO is correct, I'll be in the low spot down here on Wednesday because I'll be at work all day.

[TacomaWaWx]

Low 80s here already in coulee city. Little breezy but feels hot. Tomorrow should be a bit cooler, overall been a nice few days, glad to experience hot weather in eastern Washington and not at home.

[TacomaWaWx]

The 12z EURO precipitation totals through Wednesday 10pm. Looks good from around Kelso south. Higher totals for the Southern Valley. Awesome to see this in August.

 

us_model-en-087-0_modez_2019082012_41_5618_220.png

looks like it’ll rain a bit even where I’m at.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

TWC currently going for a high of 68 tomorrow for PDX. Would be cool if it verified.

[Omegaraptor]

Hope we can get at least 0.4”.

[Front Ranger]

Looks like I cleaned my gutters for nothing. Looking meager up here now.

Non-storm of the century.

[MossMan]

Non-storm of the century.

Looks that way. Oh well, we have October thru April for that stuff.

[High Desert Mat?]

SSW around Halloween would be ideal.

[Jesse]

Some high clouds out there today. Could keep us from cracking 100.

[seattleweatherguy]

SSW around Halloween would be ideal.

Snow on Halloween would be amazing!

[High Desert Mat?]

Snow on Halloween would be amazing!

Effects of the SSW wouldn’t be felt for a while later. That’s why Halloween, then we’d be in business for the real holidays.

[Omegaraptor]

18z GFS!

 

Looks great for the northern and central valleys with half an inch here. Also deepens the low to 979mb by 10PM.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

18z GFS!

 

Looks great for the northern and central valleys with half an inch here. Also deepens the low to 979mb by 10PM.

Score!

 

[Phil]

046DDDE5-F28E-48E8-97AC-1901D835BC04.png

Not surprising at all. You have the warmest equatorial waters over the dateline and W-IO (+IOD) and a raging +PMM/+PDO. This is why the niño 3.4 number itself is meaningless when not viewed in the proper context.

 

 

And before y’all pounce, this doesn’t imply a dud winter in the slightest. Merely that the background tropical forcing structure will likely emulate that of a warm WPAC/cool EPAC regime or modoki +ENSO.

[Phil]

SSW around Halloween would be ideal.

If only that were possible. Lol.

[Omegaraptor]

Not surprising at all. You have the warmest equatorial waters over the dateline and W-IO (+IOD) and a raging +PMM/+PDO. This is why the niño 3.4 number itself is meaningless when not viewed in the proper context.

And before y’all pounce, this doesn’t imply a dud winter in the slightest. Merely that the background tropical forcing structure will likely emulate that of a warm WPAC/cool EPAC regime or modoki +ENSO.

Do you have any solid thoughts about winter yet? Analogs, atmospheric conditions, etc? The Greenland vortex is finally gone so now the upper atmospheric pattern is conducive to arctic blasts now, I think.

 

Also, are you still sticking with a warm/dry fall despite this summer’s above average moisture flux?

[Frontal Snowsquall]

[Frontal Snowsquall]

If only that were possible. Lol.

It seems the earlier start the better. Didn't the 1968 major SSW event start around Thanksgiving?

[Front Ranger]

Looks that way. Oh well, we have October thru April for that stuff.

 

As Tim says: one should crave weather of the season one is in.

 

This is why he never complains about fall/winter weather when it happens in season. 

[El_Nina]

For the first time this summer, I smell smoke. Dissatisfied, hope it goes away before next weeks inferno.

[TT-SEA]

As Tim says: one should crave weather of the season one is in.

 

This is why he never complains about fall/winter weather when it happens in season.

I value summer over all seasons and like when its extended through all of September. But sunny, crisp fall weather starting in October and snowy weather in December and January is also appreciated.

 

I also don't complain much about rain in the fall and winter. I wait until April for that.

[Dave]

It would be an excellent treat to end a wonderful summer with some rain and convection tomorrow. We need it down here.

[TigerWoodsLibido]

It would be an excellent treat to end a wonderful summer with some rain and convection tomorrow. We need it down here.

Bigtime. Sadly it looks like the models are taking the bulk of the precip further north with each run.

[Requiem]

Bigtime. Sadly it looks like the models are taking the bulk of the precip further north with each run.

Actually seems like the opposite, a lot of the models started off by slamming Seattle but generally started moving more precip down to Oregon. Now most things are set to some extent.

[Omegaraptor]

Actually seems like the opposite, a lot of the models started off by slamming Seattle but generally started moving more precip down to Oregon. Now most things are set to some extent.

Yeah a few days ago the GFS was suggesting a Western Washington special with this event.

[Anti Marine Layer]

The rain is coming soon to the PNW. Not much effect on weather in Southern California though.

[kokaneekidz]

In Phoenix now getting my son ready for freshman year at grand canyon university. I can honestly say this is the first time in my life to experience plus 110 degree heat. It is just a bit much. Please get me home soon for natural ac.... !

[Jesse]

Looks like areas both to the north and south of Portland are being invaded by marine air ahead of tomorrow’s system. Low 70s in Longview and Salem on the hour while PDX holds at 84. It’s 82 here currently.

 

Cooler air should make it in soon, but it’s interesting how the PDX area can be one of the last west side spots to switch to onshore flow in certain situations. Of course that can be quite beneficial in the winter months.

[Blizzard777]

Snow on Halloween would be amazing!

100 percent chance of fog in my yard