August 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

[jakeinthevalley]

The Old Farmer's Almanac says cold and snowy so it will probably be a country wide torch. Thanks a lot Farmer's <_>

 

OFA really went out on a limb for Hawaii

[MossMan]

The hot/dry summer continues. Currently 59 degrees.

[Timmy]

More of importantly, does SilverFallsAndrew say that???

He doesn’t like winter anymore

[Frontal Snowsquall]

What's going to be your deadline for a cold season forecast?

Haha, that’s up to Mother Nature. And my schedule.

 

All long range forecasts are analogous to peering through fogged up glasses, so I’m cool with that, but I won’t do it blindfolded.

Sometimes blindfolded might be the way to go. Not sure I'd want Weather Bell to predict a cold winter for the PNW.

 

http://i64.tinypic.com/2epr8zr.jpg

[SilverFallsAndrew]

Sometimes blindfolded might be the way to go. Not sure I'd want Weather Bell to predict a cold winter for the PNW.

 

http://i64.tinypic.com/2epr8zr.jpg

 

In the end I think the winter of 2016-17 is underrated. 

[TigerWoodsLibido]

In the end I think the winter of 2016-17 is underrated.

Yeah it spread the wealth pretty well. Lots of cross-cascade mountain wave action that cold season like 2014.

[TT-SEA]

12Z EPS... still don't believe it.

 

5-10 day mean:

 

 

 

10-15 day mean:

 

[Jesse]

In the end I think the winter of 2016-17 is underrated.

It will start to seem better once we go a decade or so without anything approaching it in terms of sustained Dec-Feb cold anomalies.

[Timmy]

In the end I think the winter of 2016-17 is underrated.

only because you missed out on the 1/10/17 action

[SilverFallsAndrew]

only because you missed out on the 1/10/17 action

 

Ehhhh....Maybe. But I am talking in a more general sense, most Washington posters don't think much of that winter. 

[BLI snowman]

In the end I think the winter of 2016-17 is underrated. 

 

Not sure how a winter that's two years old and gets talked about all the time on here is underrated.

 

1916-17, now there's an underrated cold season.

[Deweydog]

18z!!!

[Omegaraptor]

Not sure how a winter that's two years old and gets talked about all the time on here is underrated.

 

1916-17, now there's an underrated cold season.

To be fair, winters like 2016-17 (snow-wise for PDX) were actually the norm before the 1930s or so if the downtown Portland data is to be trusted. Good luck getting us to a legitimate 1892-93 type winter in the current state of our climate. Not to mention early-mid 1800s when the LIA was on its last legs.

 

Amazing how much our climate has warmed since then.

[Front Ranger]

Grading on the last 40 years, 2016-17 was a top 3 winter for the Willamette Valley.

[Requiem]

Grading on the last 40 years, 2016-17 was a top 3 winter for the Willamette Valley.

Probably the most impressive in my backyard, at least since 2008 (though that year we had 25+ inches of snow). In 2016-2017 we had two ice storms with more than .50 inches of ice accumulation, three minor snow storms (less than 5 inches), and about 20 inches of snow in less than 12 hours (1/10/17). It was something else.

[Deweydog]

Andrew got quite a bit of mileage out of that comment.

[BLI snowman]

To be fair, winters like 2016-17 (snow-wise for PDX) were actually the norm before the 1930s or so if the downtown Portland data is to be trusted. Good luck getting us to a legitimate 1892-93 type winter in the current state of our climate. Not to mention early-mid 1800s when the LIA was on its last legs.

 

Amazing how much our climate has warmed since then.

 

Careful. Flatiron might not be happy if you point out that 1861-62 was a sharp contrast to our present climate model.

[Phil]

"Active" is somewhat subjective, but the last really cold September for the U.S. was 2006.

 

Sep06TDeptUS.png

 

 

As far as falls go, last year was actually pretty chilly and probably the coldest overall for the U.S. since 2006.

 

SON18TDeptUS.png

So 13 years ago.

 

I rest my case.

[MossMan]

With long range forecasts showing that this winter will be warm and bleh, probably not worth it keeping the place open through what will be a completely uneventful and boring season. Let’s start talking about Spring 2020.

Forecast for spring 2020...No rain and we are all going to dehydrate and die.

Shut it down.

[Front Ranger]

Andrew got quite a bit of mileage out of that comment.

It's August 23.

[Front Ranger]

[Phil]

The Old Farmer's Almanac says cold and snowy so it will probably be a country wide torch. Thanks a lot Farmer's <_>

 

I admit I have a soft spot for the OFA..I used to read it cover to cover growing up as a kid. And to be fair, their winter CONUS maps (not the week to week crap) have an okay(ish) track record..or at least a better one than the oceans of orange NOAA puts out every year.

[Phil]

[Blizzard777]

Hallelujah. Wunderground finally displays PWS data in decimal point format again. Man what a nasty website transition, but I do like the new monthly graphs better since they display the diurnal cycle. I still have some archived data missing but hopefully they’ll remedy that.

Weatherlink Data logger went belly up so I ordered the Davis weatherlink live. PWS reporting fine to wunderground as well as weatherlink.com except my anemometer with a stand alone ISS on the roof not reporting to wunderground ( anemometer is reporting to weatherlink.com though).....frustrating! Been troubleshooting the crap out of it for two days now....ugh!

But...great news about the decimal!

[Phil]

The North Pacific is a fireball. One of the strongest +PMM/+PDO signatures you’ll see these days.

 

[Phil]

Weatherlink Data logger went belly up so I ordered the Davis weatherlink live. PWS reporting fine to wunderground as well as weatherlink.com except my anemometer with a stand alone ISS on the roof not reporting to wunderground ( anemometer is reporting to weatherlink.com though).....frustrating! Been troubleshooting the crap out of it for two days now....ugh!

But...great news about the decimal!

Hmm...can you elaborate on your setup? What do you mean by “stand-alone”? Is the anemometer a separate wireless unit (not connected to the ISS)?

[Front Ranger]

Ehhhh....Maybe. But I am talking in a more general sense, most Washington posters don't think much of that winter. 

 

Could have something to do with the fact that it was mostly missed opportunities to the north and south for them.

 

Still ended up decent for most of Puget Sound region, but certainly not close to the winter it was for Portland south.

[MossMan]

It's August 23.

Almost the 24th.

[Front Ranger]

The North Pacific is a fireball. One of the strongest +PMM/+PDO signatures you’ll see these days.

 

 

Will be interesting to see if the numbers get up to around where they were from 2014-16 (a number of months 2+). 

 

That was, of course, a bad stretch for PNW winters...but no solar min then. 

[Blizzard777]

Hmm...can you elaborate on your setup? What do you mean by “stand-alone”? Is the anemometer a separate wireless unit (not connected to the ISS)?

Oops, yes, wireless unit. Like I said it is reporting properly to weatherlink.com so I know the unit is communicating properly to the correct website. I also imputed Wundergrounds station ID # and Station Key# into weatherlinks upload so data can be shared with Wunderground. Just doesn’t want to include the anemometer data

Could be a glitch....when I get home next week may need to just uninstall and reinstall and see if that does it.

[Deweydog]

It's August 23.

The majority of the world begs to differ.

 

Better fire up with some maps...

[TacomaWaWx]

Looks like back at home in Tacoma it hasn’t hit 70 in 3 days. Had some rain here at banks lake about an hour ago but only lasted a short time. In the upper 70s and cloudy here after some sunshine earlier. It’s been breezy at times as well.

[Omegaraptor]

With long range forecasts showing that this winter will be warm and bleh, probably not worth it keeping the place open through what will be a completely uneventful and boring season. Let’s start talking about Spring 2020.

As we all said in January 2019.

[Phil]

Oops, yes, wireless unit. Like I said it is reporting properly to weatherlink.com so I know the unit is communicating properly to the correct website. I also imputed Wundergrounds station ID # and Station Key# into weatherlinks upload so data can be shared with Wunderground. Just doesn’t want to include the anemometer data

Could be a glitch....when I get home next week may need to just uninstall and reinstall and see if that does it.

Can you customize/change the upload interval?

 

Also, I don’t have WxLink but in the past my Meteobridge server would occasionally receive data from a sensor on the ISS but wouldn’t distribute it. Maybe just reboot your router and/or re-register your ISS in the program? I don’t see the point in uninstalling the software since the error is probably not on your end.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

In the end I think the winter of 2016-17 is underrated.

It's my favorite winter that I've lived through here in the PNW. Numerous snow/ice storms and 1-10-17 was epic.

[Frontal Snowsquall]

Grading on the last 40 years, 2016-17 was a top 3 winter for the Willamette Valley.

Probably the most impressive in my backyard, at least since 2008 (though that year we had 25+ inches of snow). In 2016-2017 we had two ice storms with more than .50 inches of ice accumulation, three minor snow storms (less than 5 inches), and about 20 inches of snow in less than 12 hours (1/10/17). It was something else.

I agree.

 

16-17 and 08-09 are really close for me but I'd give 16-17 the nod. 08-09 was just that one huge snowstorm and nothing really happened later that winter. What made 16-17 extra special was the frigid temperatures for almost a week straight after the 1-10 snowstorm due to the solid snow cover.

[VancouverIslandSouth]

Its pretty unusual to have rain falling from Everett northward while its sunny here... but that is happening today.

 

Had some good old fashion rain in Victoria this morning, it stayed mostly cloudy almost the entire day. We'll take your marine layer you can try out our drought for awhile.

[Omegaraptor]

I agree.

16-17 and 08-09 are really close for me but I'd give 16-17 the nod. 08-09 was just that one huge snowstorm and nothing really happened later that winter. What made 16-17 extra special was the frigid temperatures for almost a week straight after the 1-10 snowstorm due to the solid snow cover.

The 3°F at Hillsboro was pretty impressive. Proof that the metro can still manage subzero.

[Blizzard777]

Can you customize/change the upload interval?

Also, I don’t have WxLink but in the past my Meteobridge server would occasionally receive data from a sensor on the ISS but wouldn’t distribute it. Maybe just reboot your router and/or re-register your ISS in the program? I don’t see the point in uninstalling the software since the error is probably not on your end.

 

I’m on the free plan so every 15 minutes. They have two other options $$ for upload intervals.

Alright, will try rebooting the router first and yes I will re-register the ISS to see if that makes for a happy moment. Thanks Phil for your efforts,

Jim

[Omegaraptor]

91/49 at Mount Shasta today, good for a +5 departure. Clear blue skies which is very nice to see at this time of year.

 

Dunsmuir is a few degrees hotter but doesn’t have an NWS station. Because of the very dry air, low 90s here doesn’t feel that hot at all. I find that 93 in Dunsmuir feels more like high 80s in Portland. Then again, that’s just an anecdote.