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August 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

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#3601
MossMan

Posted 30 August 2019 - 09:35 PM

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Had .04” on the day. Currently 61 degrees.

#3602
jcmcgaffey

Posted 30 August 2019 - 10:01 PM

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Also here: https://hprcc.unl.ed...ACISClimateMaps


Thanks you guys!

#3603
Phil

Posted 30 August 2019 - 11:53 PM

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Oh my.

ZsJmYqD.gif
  • Frontal Snowsquall likes this
Personal Weather Station Links:
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#3604
TT-SEA

Posted 30 August 2019 - 11:55 PM

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Oh my.

ZsJmYqD.gif

 

 

So it has an eye now?    ;)

 

Florida might end up dodging that bullet entirely.  

 

ecmwf-florida-gust-sw-ath-mph-8073600.pn


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#3605
ShawniganLake

Posted 31 August 2019 - 06:15 AM

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Raining

#3606
El_Nina

Posted 31 August 2019 - 06:26 AM

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Totally clear since sunrise.
I have to screenshot my photos otherwise they post sideways

#3607
MossMan

Posted 31 August 2019 - 07:09 AM

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So it has an eye now? ;)

Florida might end up dodging that bullet entirely.

ecmwf-florida-gust-sw-ath-mph-8073600.pn

Much more of a shift at all and all anyone will see will be some waves.

#3608
Jginmartini

Posted 31 August 2019 - 07:51 AM

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Oh my.ZsJmYqD.gif


Beautiful anomaly!!!
  • Frontal Snowsquall likes this
Layman’s terms please 😁

#3609
Jginmartini

Posted 31 August 2019 - 08:08 AM

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GFS also gives Florida a break but SC and northward in trouble. Waiting for rest of model to load.
Looks like my cousin on the Outer Banks will be sweating it again.

Attached Files


  • Frontal Snowsquall likes this
Layman’s terms please 😁

#3610
Jginmartini

Posted 31 August 2019 - 08:30 AM

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Looks like the eye wall stays just off shore and departs the east coast right near the Outer Banks NC
Layman’s terms please 😁

#3611
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 31 August 2019 - 09:04 AM

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I’m thinking it’s going to miss the eastern seaboard entirely.


Beautiful morning in the south valley and a ton of ballgames on. Gonna be a good day.

Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 63 (Most recent: Apr 14)

Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30, 2019) *Fewest all-time*
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall: February 27, 2019

Last sub-freezing high: Jan 14, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

GoFundMe: www.gofundme.com/CollegeBasketballvsEpilepsy

My Twitter @357jerseys4hope

24


#3612
TT-SEA

Posted 31 August 2019 - 09:15 AM

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Small rain shaft visible from the Space Needle...

20190831-101529.jpg
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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#3613
ShawniganLake

Posted 31 August 2019 - 09:24 AM

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I’m thinking it’s going to miss the eastern seaboard entirely.


Beautiful morning in the south valley and a ton of ballgames on. Gonna be a good day.


I’m thinking Florida landfall

#3614
Timmy

Posted 31 August 2019 - 09:28 AM

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I don’t track hurricanes much at all but I’m trying with this one. There are a couple things about the models that are driving me nuts. The 3km man has it at like 912mb while the cmc is at 980 and the gfs at 950 all in the next couple days. That has has to be a data error, there is no way there is 80mb of uncertainty, right?

#3615
GHweatherChris

Posted 31 August 2019 - 09:28 AM

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Its gonna hit Baja!

#3616
ShawniganLake

Posted 31 August 2019 - 09:31 AM

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I don’t track hurricanes much at all but I’m trying with this one. There are a couple things about the models that are driving me nuts. The 3km man has it at like 912mb while the cmc is at 980 and the gfs at 950 all in the next couple days. That has has to be a data error, there is no way there is 80mb of uncertainty, right?

The Nam is useless with these at least as far as intensity goes. A few weeks ago it deepened the tropical depression in the Gulf to sub 900mbs. Not even sure if that made hurricane strength

Edit. That was hurricane Barry. Which bottomed out at 991mb

#3617
MossMan

Posted 31 August 2019 - 09:39 AM

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Its gonna hit Baja!

The eye will come ashore at Ocean Shores!
  • Frontal Snowsquall likes this

#3618
GHweatherChris

Posted 31 August 2019 - 09:44 AM

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The eye will come ashore at Ocean Shores!


Hopefully Long Beach, would help draw that cold air down!!
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#3619
ShawniganLake

Posted 31 August 2019 - 09:46 AM

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The rain has stopped and the sun is coming out. I could be in the Eye of the hurricane
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#3620
MossMan

Posted 31 August 2019 - 10:11 AM

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Pretty good shower just came through here at Boeing Field...must be one of the outer bands.

#3621
Deweydog

Posted 31 August 2019 - 10:12 AM

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What a waste of a hurricane.
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All roads lead to Walgreens.

#3622
MossMan

Posted 31 August 2019 - 10:14 AM

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What a waste of a hurricane.

Trended too far east. Thanks a lot Phil.
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#3623
TT-SEA

Posted 31 August 2019 - 10:23 AM

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Sucks for the Bahamas... Dorian slows to crawl and sits there for almost 2 days before finally getting picked up by the weak trough passing through eastern Canada and the New England and pulled to the north.

 

The biggest impact the US is likely going to be in the outer banks of NC.


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#3624
TT-SEA

Posted 31 August 2019 - 10:27 AM

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Pretty good shower just came through here at Boeing Field...must be one of the outer bands.

 

 

Here is a view of that shower that was right over Boeing Field...

 

sp.png


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**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#3625
TT-SEA

Posted 31 August 2019 - 10:51 AM

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Another shower just south and east of SEA... raining pretty good in the Renton/Kent area.

 

167vc02189.jpg

 

While its sunny in Seattle now and here.


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#3626
snow_wizard

Posted 31 August 2019 - 11:50 AM

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High 75* low 63*

 

This has to be the muggiest and one of the cloudiest summers of this century so far.  Incredible how consistently warm the nights have been.  Unquestionably a different feel than recent summers.


  • El_Nina likes this

Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 


#3627
snow_wizard

Posted 31 August 2019 - 11:52 AM

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Another shower just south and east of SEA... raining pretty good in the Renton/Kent area.

 

167vc02189.jpg

 

While its sunny in Seattle now and here.

 

Dry here too.  You wouldn't even guess rain is so close.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 


#3628
Jesse

Posted 31 August 2019 - 11:55 AM

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This has to be the muggiest and one of the cloudiest summers of this century so far. Incredible how consistently warm the nights have been. Unquestionably a different feel than recent summers.


Many recent summers have had lots of warm nights like this.

#3629
TT-SEA

Posted 31 August 2019 - 11:56 AM

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This has to be the muggiest and one of the cloudiest summers of this century so far.  Incredible how consistently warm the nights have been.  Unquestionably a different feel than recent summers.

 

 

Totally agree.

 

I would have preferred less humidity and drier, cooler air and more sunshine instead of the unusually persistent clouds this summer.


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#3630
snow_wizard

Posted 31 August 2019 - 11:56 AM

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Sucks for the Bahamas... Dorian slows to crawl and sits there for almost 2 days before finally getting picked up by the weak trough passing through eastern Canada and the New England and pulled to the north.

 

The biggest impact the US is likely going to be in the outer banks of NC.

 

This goes to show that ground zero in the model world 5 days out rarely ends up being reality.  We have seen that so many times with snowstorms here!

 

I'm just thankful Puerto Rico didn't get hit after the fiasco that ensued after their last one.  They totally mishandled the aid we sent them and blamed it on Trump.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 


#3631
Omegaraptor

Posted 31 August 2019 - 11:57 AM

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This has to be the muggiest and one of the cloudiest summers of this century so far.  Incredible how consistently warm the nights have been.  Unquestionably a different feel than recent summers.

 

And least smoky.



#3632
snow_wizard

Posted 31 August 2019 - 11:59 AM

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Many recent summer have had lots of warm nights like this.

 

I meant the combination of fairly cool high temps in combination with warm low temps and high humidity.  A very different kind of summer.


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Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 


#3633
TT-SEA

Posted 31 August 2019 - 12:01 PM

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And least smoky.

 

 

Indeed... almost no smoke.   

 

Probably not normal either.  


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#3634
Requiem

Posted 31 August 2019 - 12:03 PM

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This goes to show that ground zero in the model world 5 days out rarely ends up being reality. We have seen that so many times with snowstorms here!

I'm just thankful Puerto Rico didn't get hit after the fiasco that ensued after their last one. They totally mishandled the aid we sent them and blamed it on Trump.


No politics, please :)

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"


#3635
Omegaraptor

Posted 31 August 2019 - 12:04 PM

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Indeed... almost no smoke.   

 

Probably not normal either.  

 

Not sure about PNW... but it was the least active wildfire season in CA since 1998. Not over yet though.

 

https://www.mercuryn...on-in-20-years/



#3636
TT-SEA

Posted 31 August 2019 - 12:06 PM

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Not sure about PNW... but it was the least active wildfire season in CA since 1998. Not over yet though.

 

https://www.mercuryn...on-in-20-years/

 

 

Yeah... fires and smoke are a natural part of the warm season in western North America since long before humans arrived.    To have almost no smoke is a rare treat but certainly not normal or to be expected every summer.


**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#3637
snow_wizard

Posted 31 August 2019 - 12:09 PM

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No politics, please :)

 

Sorry, but that whole situation just galls me.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 3.7"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 60

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 10

 

 


#3638
TT-SEA

Posted 31 August 2019 - 12:15 PM

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Sorry, but that whole situation just galls me.

 

 

There are lots of things on both sides that gall me.    If you were being honest and calling it fairly... you would say the same thing about Trump's behavior.

 

Stupidity abounds.


  • Requiem likes this

**REPORTED CONDITIONS AND ANOMALIES ARE NOT MEANT TO IMPLY ANYTHING ON A REGIONAL LEVEL UNLESS SPECIFICALLY STATED**


#3639
Requiem

Posted 31 August 2019 - 12:15 PM

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Sorry, but that whole situation just galls me.


Yeah, there are certainly things out there that I’d love to rant about. Guess it’s just human nature. But I shy away from it these days because it’s almost ruined a few good friendships.

"Let's mosey!"

 

--Cloud Strife

 

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

 

Top 5 Snow Events (post 2014):

 

(1. January 10th, 2017: 18.5 in.

(2. February 6th, 2014: 7.5 inches

(3. February 20th, 2018: 5.0 inches

(4. February 21st, 2018: 4.0 inches

(5. December 14th, 2016: 3.5 inches

 

Honourable Mentions: December 7th, 2018, February 9th, 2019.

 

Total since joining the Weather Forums: 3"


#3640
ShawniganLake

Posted 31 August 2019 - 12:20 PM

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https://media1.tenor...itemid=12513617
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#3641
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 31 August 2019 - 12:23 PM

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There are lots of things on both sides that gall me.    If you were being honest and calling it fairly... you would say the same thing about Trump's behavior.

 

Stupidity abounds.

 

Yep!


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 23.5"                   2019-20: 36.14" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#3642
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 31 August 2019 - 12:41 PM

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What a waste of a hurricane.

Trended too far east. Thanks a lot Phil.


Not a total waste. Hurricanes are quite beneficial for our environment. Even more so when it just tracks over the ocean.

Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.


#3643
TacomaWaWx

Posted 31 August 2019 - 01:10 PM

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Just got back from camping below the sourdough gap near chinook pass last night. Real cold last night with clear skies at 6000’. Was really good visibility this morning on the way out and at sunset last night. Could see St. Helens, Adams and even the top of Mt. Hood to the south this AM.

Attached Files


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Warm Season Stats (Since 6/1) Rainfall-2.34”(80+)days-10 (85+)days-1 (90+)days-0 Warmest High-86 August Rainfall 0.08”

#3644
Front Ranger

Posted 31 August 2019 - 01:15 PM

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Pretty bad fail on the catch attempt there.


  • ShawniganLake likes this

Low. Solar.


#3645
Eujunga

Posted 31 August 2019 - 01:26 PM

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Not sure about PNW... but it was the least active wildfire season in CA since 1998. Not over yet though.

 

https://www.mercuryn...on-in-20-years/

 

Seems like an awfully premature conclusion.  In the southern half of the state, the fire season doesn't really even start until September, and peaks in October and November when the Santa Anas blow.


  • ShawniganLake likes this

Tujunga, CA (15 miles N of Downtown L.A.) - Elev. 1,860 ft.

 

Eugene, OR (5 miles SSW) - Elev. 850 ft.


#3646
High Desert Mat?

Posted 31 August 2019 - 02:42 PM

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Clowney and Ansah for our de’s with our linebacker core? Best front 7 in the game hands down.

#3647
TacomaWaWx

Posted 31 August 2019 - 02:55 PM

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Clowney and Ansah for our de’s with our linebacker core? Best front 7 in the game hands down.

Texans are going to be hot garbage for years now. They made an even dumber trade earlier trading 2 first round picks to the Dolphins for players worth a 3rd round pick each lol. Seahawks front should be great as long as Clowney and Ansah actually stay healthy, both have injury history.
Warm Season Stats (Since 6/1) Rainfall-2.34”(80+)days-10 (85+)days-1 (90+)days-0 Warmest High-86 August Rainfall 0.08”

#3648
Deweydog

Posted 31 August 2019 - 03:22 PM

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Nice day.
All roads lead to Walgreens.

#3649
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 31 August 2019 - 03:24 PM

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Yikes, over 5 feet of rain could fall in the Bahamas as Dorian stalls. 😨

Ryan Maue @RyanMaue

Quite possible during the stall period in the Bahamas that several feet of rain fall from Hurricane #Dorian ECMWF 12z maximum is 64" ...

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https://mobile.twitt...872028021415936

Isaiah 26:20 Come, my people, enter your chambers, and shut your doors behind you; hide yourselves for a little while until the wrath is past.


#3650
weatherfan2012

Posted 31 August 2019 - 03:51 PM

weatherfan2012

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Oh my.

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after all the media hype you may end up proven right about the coaster skimmer idea if so fantastic call Phil when most everyone was calling this a Florida hit.
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