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August 2019 Weather Discussion for the PNW

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#3651
Omegaraptor

Posted 31 August 2019 - 04:26 PM

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Looks like our first shot of fall weather is in the 8-10 day range. Ensemble support has increased from 12z to 18z.
No rain here until Hour 258.

#3652
Phil

Posted 31 August 2019 - 04:34 PM

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Trended too far east. Thanks a lot Phil.


:P
  • MossMan likes this
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#3653
Phil

Posted 31 August 2019 - 04:35 PM

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Unflagged sonde reports a 153kt wind just 6mb above the surface. That’s almost 180mph.
  • Frontal Snowsquall likes this
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#3654
ShawniganLake

Posted 31 August 2019 - 04:38 PM

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Hopefully people in Florida aren’t letting their guard down.
  • Jginmartini and Frontal Snowsquall like this

#3655
Phil

Posted 31 August 2019 - 04:40 PM

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after all the media hype you may end up proven right about the coaster skimmer idea if so fantastic call Phil when most everyone was calling this a Florida hit.


Ha, we’ll see. It’s early..the pattern is such that it could easily wander about, miss the fetch, and plow into the outer banks/delmarva. Not much support on guidance right now but just few tiny tweaks would turn this into a nightmare for a lot of people that aren’t expecting anything right now.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#3656
TacomaWaWx

Posted 31 August 2019 - 04:43 PM

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Well August is over basically. Monthly rain total 1.57”, 75/57 average, 7 80+ days, 0 85+ days.
High temp of 76 today, had a little shower pass through earlier as well today.

#3657
Omegaraptor

Posted 31 August 2019 - 05:00 PM

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Well August is over basically. Monthly rain total 1.57”, 75/57 average, 7 80+ days, 0 85+ days.
High temp of 76 today, had a little shower pass through earlier as well today.


Yeah certainly a wet August. If the rain event on 8/21 had hit as per the models, it would have been the wettest since 2004. After the last two bone dry summers it’s kinda weird to see 1.57” fall in Tacoma.

I’ll calculate the average temps for PDX and HIO later.
No rain here until Hour 258.

#3658
weatherfan2012

Posted 31 August 2019 - 05:18 PM

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Ha, we’ll see. It’s early..the pattern is such that it could easily wander about, miss the fetch, and plow into the outer banks/delmarva. Not much support on guidance right now but just few tiny tweaks would turn this into a nightmare for a lot of people that aren’t expecting anything right now.

exackly these sort of patterns are the most challenging to pin down which is why no one can put there guards down because these things can throw a real cerve ball.alot of times its the small factors that ultimately become the big determination of the whole track.

#3659
Front Ranger

Posted 31 August 2019 - 05:34 PM

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Yeah certainly a wet August. If the rain event on 8/21 had hit as per the models, it would have been the wettest since 2004. After the last two bone dry summers it’s kinda weird to see 1.57” fall in Tacoma.

I’ll calculate the average temps for PDX and HIO later.


Wasn't exactly a wet month for the region. Wetter than normal some areas, drier than normal others. Tacoma was one of the wetter spots. Most of the area between Eugene and Portland was dry, as well as areas north of Seattle.

Attached File  MonthPNormWRCC-NW.png   139.53KB   0 downloads
  • Jginmartini likes this

Low. Solar.


#3660
Phil

Posted 31 August 2019 - 05:40 PM

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Woah.

wqzTwiD.jpg
  • Frontal Snowsquall likes this
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#3661
TacomaWaWx

Posted 31 August 2019 - 05:51 PM

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Wasn't exactly a wet month for the region. Wetter than normal some areas, drier than normal others. Tacoma was one of the wetter spots. Most of the area between Eugene and Portland was dry, as well as areas north of Seattle.

MonthPNormWRCC-NW.png

makes up for this spring when the south sound was constantly rain shadowed. Recent rain in the area has helped out the balance a bit I guess. We had 1.44” of rain in March, but 1.57” in August lol.

#3662
MossMan

Posted 31 August 2019 - 05:57 PM

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Wasn't exactly a wet month for the region. Wetter than normal some areas, drier than normal others. Tacoma was one of the wetter spots. Most of the area between Eugene and Portland was dry, as well as areas north of Seattle.

MonthPNormWRCC-NW.png

Lots of purple.

#3663
Front Ranger

Posted 31 August 2019 - 06:02 PM

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makes up for this spring when the south sound was constantly rain shadowed. Recent rain in the area has helped out the balance a bit I guess. We had 1.44” of rain in March, but 1.57” in August lol.


I imagine only a handful of years have accomplished a drier March than August. :)
  • Omegaraptor likes this

Low. Solar.


#3664
TT-SEA

Posted 31 August 2019 - 06:06 PM

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I imagine only a handful of years have accomplished a drier March than August. :)

 

 

The Cedar Lake station near me almost had a wetter August than March as well.

 

And March averages 4 times as much rain as August.



#3665
ShawniganLake

Posted 31 August 2019 - 06:11 PM

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March was much drier than August here and August was still drier than normal, though just barely

#3666
Frontal Snowsquall

Posted 31 August 2019 - 06:12 PM

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Woah.

wqzTwiD.jpg


Thank God it looks like Dorian will recurve out to sea.

Psalm 148:8 Fire and hail, snow and frost, stormy wind fulfilling his command!


#3667
TT-SEA

Posted 31 August 2019 - 06:16 PM

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Thank God it looks like Dorian will recurve out to sea.

 

There might not be anything left of the Bahamas by time that happens.


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#3668
TacomaWaWx

Posted 31 August 2019 - 06:27 PM

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I imagine only a handful of years have accomplished a drier March than August. :)

Id have to go back and look but it wouldn’t surprise me if it hasn’t happened at all or only a couple times. Last few months have had interesting precip totals since March. MAR 1.44” APR 2.29” MAY 0.52” JUN 0.17” JUL 0.99” AUG 1.57”. Uncommon spread.

#3669
Farmboy

Posted 31 August 2019 - 06:28 PM

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Uh, guys...

@MJVentrice
14m14 minutes ago

Here's the latest from our 18Z #IBM MPAS run. Despite the ECMWF(euro) offshore trend over the past 24 hours, our MPAS model stalls Hurricane Dorian off the Florida coast for a few hours and slowly brings it onshore.

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

(I copied and pasted)
"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

#3670
Phil

Posted 31 August 2019 - 06:33 PM

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Should be a Cat5 by the 11pm update.
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#3671
ShawniganLake

Posted 31 August 2019 - 06:35 PM

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Uh, guys...

@MJVentrice
14m14 minutes ago

Here's the latest from our 18Z #IBM MPAS run. Despite the ECMWF(euro) offshore trend over the past 24 hours, our MPAS model stalls Hurricane Dorian off the Florida coast for a few hours and slowly brings it onshore.

[link to twitter.com (secure)]

(I copied and pasted)

Florida landfall still seems quite possible to me. Steering causing the N and E turn looks pretty weak.

#3672
hawkstwelve

Posted 31 August 2019 - 06:52 PM

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Absolutely beautiful sunset in the Snoqualmie Valley tonight.

Attached Files


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#3673
Phil

Posted 31 August 2019 - 07:32 PM

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Should be a Cat5 by the 11pm update.


Steady at 150mph.

Zb1nksu.jpg
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#3674
GHweatherChris

Posted 31 August 2019 - 07:34 PM

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Steady at 150mph.

Zb1nksu.jpg


135 to 144.

#3675
Jginmartini

Posted 31 August 2019 - 07:34 PM

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Thank God it looks like Dorian will recurve out to sea.


I hope George Clooney isn’t out trying to make his quota!!!
  • ShawniganLake and Frontal Snowsquall like this
Layman’s terms please 😁

#3676
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 31 August 2019 - 10:00 PM

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Very warm evening. 66 outside currently. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 13.0" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#3677
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 31 August 2019 - 10:00 PM

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Looks like some signs of fall on the 00z. 


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 13.0" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#3678
MossMan

Posted 31 August 2019 - 10:04 PM

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Very warm evening. 66 outside currently.

58 here currently.

#3679
TT-SEA

Posted 31 August 2019 - 10:17 PM

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Its as if Trump has deployed some kind of deflector shield over Palm Beach.   Dorian comes in heading straight west and gets right up to the Florida coast and makes a sharp right turn.

 

The Bahamas are screwed though.

 

ecmwf-florida-gust-sw-ath-mph-7598400.pn



#3680
Front Ranger

Posted 31 August 2019 - 10:26 PM

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Its as if Trump has deployed some kind of deflector shield over Palm Beach. Dorian comes in heading straight west and gets right up to the Florida coast and makes a sharp right turn.

The Bahamas are screwed though.

ecmwf-florida-gust-sw-ath-mph-7598400.pn


Hard RIGHT!

Low. Solar.


#3681
SilverFallsAndrew

Posted 31 August 2019 - 11:00 PM

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Hard RIGHT!

 

Does this mean Trump is a lock for a 4th term?!

 

Honk Honk


Snowfall                                  Precip

2019-20: 13.0" 

2018-19: 63.5"                   2018-19: 66.33"

2017-18: 30.3"                   2017-18: 59.83"

2016-17: 49.2"                   2016-17: 97.58"

2015-16: 11.75"                 2015-16: 68.67"

2014-15: 3.5"
2013-14: 11.75"
2012-13: 16.75"
2011-12: 98.5"                   2011-12: 92.67"

 

It's always sunny at Winters Hill! 

 


#3682
Deweydog

Posted 31 August 2019 - 11:02 PM

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Resist!

No landfall! No peace!
All roads lead to Walgreens.

#3683
Deweydog

Posted 31 August 2019 - 11:21 PM

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Is Dorito category six yet?
All roads lead to Walgreens.

#3684
Farmboy

Posted 01 September 2019 - 05:37 AM

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Holy guacamole...


@splillo
4 minHá 4 minutos
Mais
Latest recon pass through #Dorian's eye and the NW eyewall shows another pressure drop, with min extrapolated pressure of 922.5mb.
Additionally, 159kt flight level winds - the highest measured thus far.




@pppapin
2 minHá 2 minutos
Mais
#Dorian keeps intensifying. Most recent set of recon obs in the NW quad have max flight level winds at 159kt & SFMR (which may have a high bias) at whopping 172kt!

Minimum extrapolated pressure is down to 922.5-hPa too. Almost at #GreatAbaco island in the #Bahamas.
  • Jginmartini likes this
"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

#3685
Farmboy

Posted 01 September 2019 - 05:44 AM

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Max sustained winds 175 mph, gusts of 185 mph. New pressure reading of 918.5 mb!!
"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

#3686
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 September 2019 - 05:49 AM

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Morning low of 62 here. This is night #13 this year with a 60+ low. The number is 29 if you add up every night 58+.

#3687
TacomaWaWx

Posted 01 September 2019 - 05:53 AM

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Definitely does look like fall is on the horizon with the latest gfs runs.

#3688
Jginmartini

Posted 01 September 2019 - 06:54 AM

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Low of 63* warmish
Layman’s terms please 😁

#3689
Farmboy

Posted 01 September 2019 - 07:00 AM

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Michael Fischer
@MikeFischerWx
This dropsonde profile from the ongoing Air Force mission into Hurricane #Dorian is incredible. Mean winds in the lowest 150 m of 157 kt (180 mph). Peak winds of 192 kt (221 mph).


Latest pressure reading 913mb!
"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

#3690
TT-SEA

Posted 01 September 2019 - 07:13 AM

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You can see the 'stadium effect' in the eye this morning...

 

dor.png

 

 

The eye will pass right over Marsh Harbour and Elbow Cay in the northern Bahamas... likely wiping these places off the map entirely.    Hope nobody is left there.

 

dor2.png



#3691
TT-SEA

Posted 01 September 2019 - 07:19 AM

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Wind already up to 128 mph at Marsh Harbour... suspect this will be the last update from there.

 

mh.png



#3692
Farmboy

Posted 01 September 2019 - 07:54 AM

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The hurricane is still undergoing rapid intensification. Pressure now down to 909mb...
"Avoiding unwanted weather is a key element of happiness."

#3693
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 September 2019 - 07:57 AM

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The hurricane is still undergoing rapid intensification. Pressure now down to 909mb...

Could make a run at the strongest Atlantic basin hurricane on record. Currently 4th by the sounds of it.

#3694
TigerWoodsLibido

Posted 01 September 2019 - 08:12 AM

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EUG finished the month +2.9F and -0.06" rain.


Springfield, Oregon cold season 19-20 Stats:

Coldest high: 34 (Nov 30)
Coldest low: 20 (Nov 29)
Days with below freezing temps: 34 (Most recent: Jan 17)

Days with sub-40F highs: 1 (Most recent: Nov 30)
Total snowfall: 0.0"

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019
Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31F)
Last White Christmas: 1990

Significant wind events (gusts 45+): 0

 

Personal Stats:

Last accumulating snowfall (grass): February 27, 2019

Last accumulating snowfall (roads): February 27, 2019
Last sub-freezing high: Jan 13, 2017 (31)
Last White Christmas: 2008

Total snowfall since joining TheWeatherForums: 20.7"

My Twitter @353jerseys4hope


#3695
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 September 2019 - 08:22 AM

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Wind already up to 128 mph at Marsh Harbour... suspect this will be the last update from there.

mh.png

There is a storm chaser tweeting from there. Sounds like is is held up in a school and there are people including children.

“11:40 am. Pounding. CRASHING. Boards prying off windows. We're moving children to a safe space, wrapping them in blankets. 969 mg. #DORIAN”

#3696
Phil

Posted 01 September 2019 - 08:49 AM

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OMG..the new advisory has Dorian with 185mph sustained winds, and gusts to 220mph!

G2gwCV6.jpg
Winter 2019/20
Winter events: 3 (11/16, 12/11, 12/16)
Total snowfall: 1.1”
Coldest temp: 21.4*F (11/14)
Highest Gust: 54mph (11/27)
Personal Weather Station Live Stream
NOAA: https://www.wrh.noaa...168&banner=NONE
Wunderground: https://www.wundergr...019-08-23/daily

#3697
TT-SEA

Posted 01 September 2019 - 08:52 AM

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Its September.



#3698
weatherfan2012

Posted 01 September 2019 - 08:53 AM

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OMG..the new advisory has Dorian with 185mph sustained winds, and gusts to 220mph! G2gwCV6.jpg

no words mother nature no matter be it good bad and really ugly at times never fails to blow one mind at times!

#3699
snow_wizard

Posted 01 September 2019 - 08:54 AM

snow_wizard

    The Snow Wizard

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  • LocationCovington, WA

OMG..the new advisory has Dorian with 185mph sustained winds, and gusts to 220mph!

G2gwCV6.jpg

 

Weird hurricane season.  Deader than a doornail and then one storm that will more than make up for that from an ACE perspective.


Death To Warm Anomalies!

 

Winter 2019-20 stats

 

Total Snowfall = 2.8"

Day with 1" or more snow depth = 3

Total Hail = T

Coldest Low = 20

Lows 32 or below = 34

Highs 32 or below = 0

Lows 20 or below = 1

Highs 40 or below = 7

 

 


#3700
ShawniganLake

Posted 01 September 2019 - 08:57 AM

ShawniganLake

    Special Contributor

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  • LocationShawnigan Lake, BC. Southern Vancouver Island, 500ft

Its September.


Uggggh. It’s Fall