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September 2019 Observations and Discussion

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#1
Tom

Posted 24 August 2019 - 07:59 AM

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While we enjoy the last few days of met Summer, nature is providing many of us up north a taste of Autumn.  On the other hand, our southern members will still have some summer weather to deal with but that will begin to change this month.  I have many reasons to believe Autumn is coming early and hard this year unlike recent years where "endless summer" persisted and extended itself into Sept.  I think it's time to prepare for a chilly start to Autumn.  Let's dive in...

 

Based off my knowledge of the cycling weather pattern and various other LR tools I use, there is a cold period forthcoming to open up the first half of the month of Sept.  My worry is, how cold will it get up north and how much an impact will there be on the ag belt?  Early Frost/Freeze???  Could there be some spots by the middle of the month that will see their first snow flakes of the season??  A very strong signal is pointing towards an early development of the "North American Vortex" which will begin to take shape this month allowing for the early build up of cold and snow up in N Canada.  This will set the stage for strong CF's to inundate our Sub and eventually plunge south into southern Plains.  Autumn is coming...

 

Here are some maps from the CFSv2 showing what may be in the cards...

 

summaryCFSv2.NaT2m.201909.gif

 

 

 

 

summaryCFSv2.NaPrec.201909.gif

 


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#2
Tom

Posted 24 August 2019 - 08:03 AM

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I like using these snow maps off the CFS model as it has been doing an excellent job since the middle of the Summer predicting snow to begin building over the Arctic and Archipelago. It has been steadfast on the idea of the Vortex pin wheeling in this region throughout the month. Needless to say, "If you build it, it will come"...nature is laying down the foundation of "home grown cold"...

Sept 1...

19090100_2400.gif



By Oct 1st...

19100100_2400.gif
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#3
OKwx2k4

Posted 24 August 2019 - 03:01 PM

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AO/NAO look to cycle back out towards neutral for 7-10 days. This is a good thing, IMO because it gives a cold dome a chance to build back up before the next hard dip.

Been a good while since we have seen the MJJA months average negative. Someone mentioned 2002 and 2010, I think those are pretty valuable guides to look forward into the first month of met Autumn.

With NAO influence, snow in Eastern Canada is great for us. Without it, central/west Canada is where you want to see it build. We are right on track.
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#4
Tom

Posted 25 August 2019 - 03:21 AM

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With the Labor Day weekend fast approaching, anyone have any exciting plans?  I think practically everyone on this board will have at least a couple days during the weekend to have cooler than normal temps which is a pretty difficult feat to meet this time of year.  Last night's 00z Euro was showing a couple days with widespread daytime highs in the 60's across the GL's region.  It's been a while since we've had a colder Labor Day weekend.  Thankfully, it looks like there will be abundant sunshine and not much rain to speak of, except for Friday night when a strong CF pushes through the region.



#5
OKwx2k4

Posted 25 August 2019 - 08:54 AM

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Not sure about my plans yet. Only issue with going back to the feed milling business, poultry doesn't take holidays. Lol. I knew that when I signed up though. I'm thankful for the cooler weather. This year reminds me of 2010 in many many ways except for it seems 3 weeks earlier than that year.
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#6
jaster220

Posted 25 August 2019 - 09:07 AM

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I like using these snow maps off the CFS model as it has been doing an excellent job since the middle of the Summer predicting snow to begin building over the Arctic and Archipelago.  It has been steadfast on the idea of the Vortex pin wheeling in this region throughout the month.  Needless to say, "If you build, it will come"...nature is laying down the foundation of "home grown cold"...

 

Sept 1...

 

19090100_2400.gif

 

 

 

By Oct 1st...

 

19100100_2400.gif

 

So, basically if I lived in say Churchill up in Canada and the polar bears just jumped off the last of the ice flow a few weeks ago, I got zero summer - ouch! 


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#7
jaster220

Posted 25 August 2019 - 09:12 AM

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With the Labor Day weekend fast approaching, anyone have any exciting plans?  I think practically everyone on this board will have at least a couple days during the weekend to have cooler than normal temps which is a pretty difficult feat to meet this time of year.  Last night's 00z Euro was showing a couple days with widespread daytime highs in the 60's across the GL's region.  It's been a while since we've had a colder Labor Day weekend.  Thankfully, it looks like there will be abundant sunshine and not much rain to speak of, except for Friday night when a strong CF pushes through the region.

 

I hope to visit the National Mall in DC for the first time. I'm excited to see some of those famous monuments I've only seen in pictures/TV/film over my lifetime. Should still be a bit warmer down there no doubt.


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#8
Niko

Posted 25 August 2019 - 01:54 PM

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I hope to visit the National Mall in DC for the first time. I'm excited to see some of those famous monuments I've only seen in pictures/TV/film over my lifetime. Should still be a bit warmer down there no doubt.

Awesome dude! I want to visit DC one day as well. Gotta make that effort. Have fun there!


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#9
Niko

Posted 25 August 2019 - 01:55 PM

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Not sure what I am doing this LDW. I usually make my plans last second.



#10
OKwx2k4

Posted 25 August 2019 - 05:14 PM

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Knock on wood, but the GFS has 4 frontal passages all the way down here in 15 days. 2 majors and 2 minors. 3 minors for a total of 5 if you want to count the weak CF here today.

That's HIGHLY unusual weather for any September.
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#11
OKwx2k4

Posted 25 August 2019 - 05:44 PM

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For Andie, the GFS ens, as of right now still won't break the base of that ridge out of central and west TX. I hope it does soon. That hot air has been anchored there for 6 weeks. It has to break down at some point as it migrates out to join the EPAC ridge complex on the west coast. It may just be one of those years where TX just gets a "Norther" out of nowhere one day in early autumn and "boom", as they say in boxing...."Its aaaaaallllllllll over!!!!" "Down goes the heat!" :)
Like the flip of a switch.

#12
Madtown

Posted 25 August 2019 - 05:52 PM

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Hanging with the new baby girl and hitting up oktoberfests all Sept long...Heres to 60's for highs and bonfires all night long

Attached Files


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#13
Hawkeye

Posted 25 August 2019 - 08:17 PM

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I was not expecting any rain until late Monday, but tonight's disturbance has thrown decent moisture up into east-central Iowa.  The HRRR is still failing to see it.  I may have a few tenths and there's more moving up from the south.


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season snowfall: 13.1"

 

'18-19: 50.2"      '17-18: 39.5"      '16-17: 17.9"      '15-16: 20.0"      '14-15: 30.4"      '13-14: 48.3"      '12-13: 34.1"

 

Average snowfall: ~30"


#14
OKwx2k4

Posted 26 August 2019 - 12:20 AM

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Hanging with the new baby girl and hitting up oktoberfests all Sept long...Heres to 60's for highs and bonfires all night long


Now that's a happy baby and a happy fridge if I ever saw one!
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#15
OKwx2k4

Posted 26 August 2019 - 12:22 AM

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Well, the GFS is kinda waffling a little on the 4 distinctive cold fronts now and making a wash out of the end of the the thing. We just have to keep watch it. The north wont have a problem cooling off, but getting them down here may have been too good to be true.
Waiting and seeing....

#16
Andie

Posted 26 August 2019 - 08:09 AM

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Congrats Madtown!!
Gorgeous baby and looks like you’re primed for celebration!
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

#17
Niko

Posted 26 August 2019 - 01:56 PM

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Cant believe Meteorological Autumn is coming soon. WOW. Times flies. I remember when Summer first started back in June.


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#18
Tom

Posted 27 August 2019 - 03:04 AM

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It's that time of year when farmers and wx enthusiasts begin to look for signs of Autumn.  None more noticeable are when parts of our Sub see our first Frosts of the season.  The map below illustrates on average when we would expect our first Frosts.  

 

Med_First32_FreezeDate.png

 

 

While on the topic of Frosts, using the BSR rule from a storm that tracked near the southern Aleutians islands back on 8/20-22, I'm seeing the models showing signs of it during the 2nd week of this month (9/7-9/9).  Might this be the first big cool down of the Autumn season for many us post storm???  I'm leaning that way and would not be surprised if there are frosty mornings in the near future up north.


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#19
someweatherdude

Posted 27 August 2019 - 01:36 PM

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Check out these heat islands. 

gfs_T2ma_us_24.png


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#20
james1976

Posted 27 August 2019 - 03:21 PM

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Local met has low 80s by next Tuesday. Hopefully it's short lived. Otherwise uts mainly 70s here for the next week.
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#21
OKwx2k4

Posted 27 August 2019 - 08:43 PM

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It's that time of year when farmers and wx enthusiasts begin to look for signs of Autumn. None more noticeable are when parts of our Sub see our first Frosts of the season. The map below illustrates on average when we would expect our first Frosts.

Med_First32_FreezeDate.png


While on the topic of Frosts, using the BSR rule from a storm that tracked near the southern Aleutians islands back on 8/20-22, I'm seeing the models showing signs of it during the 2nd week of this month (9/7-9/9). Might this be the first big cool down of the Autumn season for many us post storm??? I'm leaning that way and would not be surprised if there are frosty mornings in the near future up north.


Only 44(ish) more days to go. :)
I hope sooner. Maybe by September's end, but also maybe wishful thinking.

#22
Andie

Posted 28 August 2019 - 04:36 AM

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I'm looking forward to hearing who gets the first snowflake !!

We'll see 92-93* today but the air feels different.
The moisture yesterday was a real shot in the arm.
20% chance of rain the next few days but we got about .60" yesterday.
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

#23
Niko

Posted 28 August 2019 - 08:39 AM

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Next week shows a nice, cool airmass coming which has my highs struggling to hit 70F. That should feel awesome.



#24
Tom

Posted 30 August 2019 - 03:00 AM

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Next week shows a nice, cool airmass coming which has my highs struggling to hit 70F. That should feel awesome.

Niko, if things work out just right with Dorian and the trough coming down out of Canada next weekend, places around the GL's may struggle to get out of the 50's!  The pattern leading up to the following weekend could really buckle into a major trough across the GL's/SE Canada.  Early Frost potential is in the cards for some peeps across the north.  My gut feeling has been saying all along to look for a colder opening to September and its certainly leaning that way.


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#25
Tom

Posted 30 August 2019 - 03:25 AM

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Taking a look at the wx pattern that is poised to set up across the N PAC, it is opening up on a very active and intriguing setup which provides us some clues of what to expect towards the 2nd half of the month.  Storm train???  Strong troughs???  Check out this animation below off last nights 00z EPS which is showing a major Aleutian Low (upper 960'smb)? targeting the islands and taking a nice track just west of Alaska with the potential of a couple more storms to track in this region over the next 10 days. Nice way to open up September, ay?  Boy, if your looking for Autumn-like weather, this is what you want to see near the Bearing Sea to open up September.

 

I got this feeling that we are going to see the atmosphere primed for some strong, wound up Autumn storms to effect our Sub this month.


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#26
Tom

Posted 30 August 2019 - 03:48 AM

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Septembrrrr!!!  Yikes, if this trough phases/buckles next weekend all signs point to early frost/freeze potential up north.  My target dates of 9/7-9/9 for a big storm/trough using the BSR is starting to show up on the ensembles.  #AutumnIsComing

 

  

 

gfs_T2m_ncus_34.png



#27
Andie

Posted 30 August 2019 - 04:12 AM

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Its always interesting to see if the Farmers Almanac will hit on their long range forecast.
I never put any real stock into it regarding Texas as our weather seems to have a mind of its own sometimes.
Anyway, here's their winter forecast map for winter 2019-2020.

Attached File  IMG_3881.JPG   107.49KB   0 downloads

https://www.farmersa...tended-forecast
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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

#28
Niko

Posted 30 August 2019 - 04:46 AM

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Niko, if things work out just right with Dorian and the trough coming down out of Canada next weekend, places around the GL's may struggle to get out of the 50's!  The pattern leading up to the following weekend could really buckle into a major trough across the GL's/SE Canada.  Early Frost potential is in the cards for some peeps across the north.  My gut feeling has been saying all along to look for a colder opening to September and its certainly leaning that way.

:o

 

A shock to the system, for sure!


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#29
Niko

Posted 30 August 2019 - 04:47 AM

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Its always interesting to see if the Farmers Almanac will hit on their long range forecast.
I never put any real stock into it regarding Texas as our weather seems to have a mind of its own sometimes.
Anyway, here's their winter forecast map for winter 2019-2020.

attachicon.gifIMG_3881.JPG

https://www.farmersa...tended-forecast

I hope this map stays true! :)


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#30
james1976

Posted 30 August 2019 - 06:21 AM

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Septembrrrr!!! Yikes, if this trough phases/buckles next weekend all signs point to early frost/freeze potential up north. My target dates of 9/7-9/9 for a big storm/trough using the BSR is starting to show up on the ensembles. #AutumnIsComing



gfs_T2m_ncus_34.png

Bring on bonfire season!

#31
jaster220

Posted 30 August 2019 - 08:33 AM

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I hope this map stays true! :)

 

I'm still trying to figure out if Snowy and Frozen is colder or warmer than Snowy and Frigid???  :lol: 


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#32
Niko

Posted 30 August 2019 - 10:27 AM

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I'm still trying to figure out if Snowy and Frozen is colder or warmer than Snowy and Frigid???  :lol: 

 Maybe "Frozen is colder than Frigid?"  :lol:


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#33
OKwx2k4

Posted 01 September 2019 - 12:37 AM

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AO looks to trend positive for the first time in a few months. Heres hoping that changes after ice starts building back up there.
Attached File  ao.sprd2.gif   23.75KB   0 downloads

#34
Tom

Posted 01 September 2019 - 03:58 AM

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AO looks to trend positive for the first time in a few months. Heres hoping that changes after ice starts building back up there.
attachicon.gifao.sprd2.gif

I don't mind seeing this spike in early Autumn for a number of reasons, most importantly, it'll allow the Arctic cool off quickly and build up the snow pack.


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#35
Tom

Posted 01 September 2019 - 04:19 AM

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Welcome to met Autumn!  My goodness, but what a way to kick start the month of September with nature's beast #Dorian now a Cat 5 (160mph) winds!  Quite a phenomenal storm system and one that still may impact Floridians.  To close for comfort.  These systems have a mind of their own and may jog enough west to inundate the east coast of FL.  I read that at flight level winds have reached 170mph...just an insane amount of energy.


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#36
westMJim

Posted 01 September 2019 - 05:12 AM

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I had 0.17" of rain fall overnight here at my house.  With cloudy skies the current temperature here is 57. A short recap of August for West Michigan. Over all West Michigan had a near average August with Grand Rapids coming in with a mean temperature of 70.7° and that is a departure of just -0.1° The high for the month was 89 on the 4th and the low was 49 on the 31st. At the airport they reported 3.41" of rain that is below the 30 year average of 3.59 for August. Muskegon came in with a departure of +0.4 the high for the month there was just 86 on the 13th and the low was 48 on the 31st with 2.16" of rain fall well below the average of 3.39" At Kalamazoo the departure there was +0.5 the highest for the month was 88 and the low was 49 Kalamazoo only recorded 1.73" of rain. and in central Michigan at Lansing the departure there was +0.3 with the high for the month of 89 and the low of 47. with 1.57" of rain reported


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#37
westMJim

Posted 01 September 2019 - 09:02 AM

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As we start a new month and a new season lets look back at the last day of August

 

 
  
PUBLIC INFORMATION STATEMENT  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GAYLORD MI  
738 AM EDT SAT AUG 31 2019  
   
..OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURE REPORTS  
  
THE FOLLOWING ARE LOW TEMPERATURE OBSERVATIONS OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS   
ENDING AT 7:30 AM ON AUGUST 31, 2019. NOTE: ONLY TEMPERATURES OF 40   
DEGREES OR COLDER WERE INCLUDED IN THIS REPORT.  
  
LOCATION                     TEMP      TIME/DATE       LAT/LON                       
ROSCOMMON                     32 F     0710 AM 08/31   44.47N/84.57W          
ATLANTA                       35 F     0408 AM 08/31   45.15N/84.19W          
GRAYLING - ARMY AIRFIELD      36 F     0658 AM 08/31   44.68N/84.73W          
LUZERNE                       37 F     0716 AM 08/31   44.64N/84.24W          
MIO                           37 F     0700 AM 08/31   44.68N/84.13W          
4 W RACO                      37 F     0704 AM 08/31   46.36N/84.80W          
HOUGHTON LAKE - ROSCOMMON CO  38 F     0653 AM 08/31   44.35N/84.67W          
TROUT LAKE                    38 F     0727 AM 08/31   46.19N/84.98W          
CADILLAC - WEXFORD COUNT ARP  39 F     0658 AM 08/31   44.27N/85.42W          
1 WNW REXTON                  39 F     0713 AM 08/31   46.15N/85.27W          
RUDYARD                       39 F     0714 AM 08/31   46.24N/84.51W          
ALGER                         40 F     0701 AM 08/31   44.13N/84.12W          
GRAWN                         40 F     0725 AM 08/31   44.64N/85.69W          
MANCELONA                     40 F     0730 AM 08/31   44.90N/85.07W          
GRAYLING                      40 F     0712 AM 08/31   44.72N/84.71W          
PELLSTON - RGNL AIRPORT OF E  40 F     0654 AM 08/31   45.57N/84.80W          
        
  
OBSERVATIONS ARE COLLECTED FROM A VARIETY OF SOURCES WITH VARYING  
EQUIPMENT AND EXPOSURES. WE THANK ALL VOLUNTEER WEATHER OBSERVERS   
FOR THEIR DEDICATION. NOT ALL DATA LISTED ARE CONSIDERED OFFICIAl
 
The month of August ended up on a cool note in parts of Michigan

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#38
St Paul Storm

Posted 01 September 2019 - 09:15 AM

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A few days ago the forecast was for 80F and sun. It’s currently 62F and rain. There was 0% chance of rain today. Lots of outdoor plans ruined this morning for sure.
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#39
westMJim

Posted 01 September 2019 - 12:21 PM

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The high so far at GRR today is just 68 if this holds (it is now down to 65 here at my house) this will be the coolest high for September 1st at Grand Rapids since 2003 and very well could be a top ten coolest. 68 would put it in a tie for 10 place and a high of 69 would put it in a 3 way tie for 11 place.


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#40
clintbeed1993

Posted 01 September 2019 - 01:59 PM

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Let's take a look back at the historic August and summer of 2019. Here in Grand Island we ended with the 2nd wettest summer on record and the wettest since 1908! 1908 beat 2019 out by only about half an inch. We ended the summer with 21.25 inches which is pretty much our yearly average! August alone measured a foot of rain. This wasn't even close to the highest total in the area either, Doniphan which is about 10 miles away measured over 16 inches :o

 

I love seeing the extremes. Look at 2012 and compare it to 2019. Just incredible disparity. Weather patterns are truly fascinating.  This is one year that won't soon be forgotten around this area.

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#41
Niko

Posted 01 September 2019 - 04:45 PM

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Back in Michigan guys. Came back early Sunday evening. Nice to be back in my home.

 

Cannot believe how strong Hurricane Dorian is. Those people in the Bahamas are really getting hit badly. Good luck to them down there and hope they stay safe.

 

Floridians, don't let your guards down. Stay alert and evacuate just in case it takes that westward track.


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#42
OKwx2k4

Posted 02 September 2019 - 03:39 AM

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Happy labor day, friends.
Here's to the close of another great summer and to an autumn and winter with some awesome friends here. Bless you all.
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#43
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 September 2019 - 05:03 AM

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Unofficial last day of summer might be one of the more exciting days all summer here. Enhanced risk of severe storms later with all modes possible. That one mean looking MCS on some of the models.
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#44
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 September 2019 - 05:28 AM

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Meanwhile, prayers to those in the Bahamas today. Dorian has stopped to a crawl with gusts to 200mph. I can’t imagine...
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#45
OKwx2k4

Posted 02 September 2019 - 05:38 AM

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Meanwhile, prayers to those in the Bahamas today. Dorian has stopped to a crawl with gusts to 200mph. I can’t imagine...


Agree buddy. They're in my prayers this morning for sure. Horrifying deal for them. I couldn't imagine either.
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#46
CentralNebWeather

Posted 02 September 2019 - 06:17 AM

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Will today be the last hurrah of the combination of temp above 90, dew in the mid 70’s, and heat index pushing 100? Gosh I hope so. This had gotten old weeks and weeks ago.
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#47
Andie

Posted 02 September 2019 - 07:25 AM

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Dorian may be the worst in history. Different from Katrina in character. Dorian may scrape the eastern seaboard and damage more. But the slow path and wind speed is absolutely jaw dropping.

If we're lucky, the steering winds will allow it to move out to sea. The High will move some, hopefully not to hit Bermuda, although the water isn't 87* there.

Texas has another week of 95-99* dry days. Fall isn't here yet.
Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes. 2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

#48
OKwx2k4

Posted 02 September 2019 - 08:16 AM

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Dorian may be the worst in history. Different from Katrina in character. Dorian may scrape the eastern seaboard and damage more. But the slow path and wind speed is absolutely jaw dropping.

If we're lucky, the steering winds will allow it to move out to sea. The High will move some, hopefully not to hit Bermuda, although the water isn't 87* there.

Texas has another week of 95-99* dry days. Fall isn't here yet.


As you said, the "target" track is still abysmal from Florida to Maine. Crazy stuff.

#49
St Paul Storm

Posted 02 September 2019 - 09:07 AM

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No major update to the enhanced risk area tonight. QLCS or MCS looks almost definite. Not exactly the best time of day for severe wx but this has my interest. Winds with the line may become a problem. With an exceptionally wet summer the tree roots might not hold with severe winds.

Currently mostly sunny and dew points surging as the warm front moves north. Fuel for the fire.

#50
james1976

Posted 02 September 2019 - 09:54 AM

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Just opened the blinds to the patio door and first thing I see are a few leaves on the deck. I'm actually seeing a bit of color here and there around the neighborhood. It's very little but definite signs of fall approaching quickly. Love it. 60s for highs this coming weekend!
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