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September 2019 Observations and Discussion


Tom

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PER NOAA:

 

Persistent ridging over the Great Lakes will keep the extended
forecast period quiet and mostly dry. A warming trend will commence
beginning Wednesday as the ridge axis folds over and higher 850mb
temps /mid teens C/ spill eastward into the region. Highs around 80
on Wednesday will increase a bit each day, eventually reaching the
mid 80s by Saturday with light winds and partly cloudy skies forecast
each day. A pattern change looks to be in store by the late weekend
as troughing over the central CONUS finally forces the ridge
eastward. The best chance for precip currently looks to be next
Sunday as a cold front moves through.

 

Break out the sun screen. Temps will soar by mid to late week. Woohooooooooooo!!! :blink:

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I had just a trace of rain fall here yesterday is some mist. The official H/L at GRR yesterday was 72/60, the average H/L for today is 73/53 the record high for today is 89 set in 1955 today is the first day of the fall season where Grand Rapids has not yet reached 90. The record low for today is 32 set in 1902 the warmest minimum is 70 set in 1902 and the record coldest maximum is 55 set in 1993. Last year the H/L was 87/63 that 87 was good for the 2nd warmest ever on September 16th in Grand Rapids. The current temperature here at my house is 67.

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Nice band of strong thunderstorms developed just to the north of Omaha this morning... once again not a drop of rain in my backyard. And the beat goes on... 

 

Saw pictures online of the hail from those storms. There was a brief time where the storms were severe warned near Blair around 945 but even the warning had to be cancelled early bc the storms weakened. However in that time the storms dropped quarter to golf ball sized hail just south of Blair. Looked like lots of it too. I'm in north Omaha right off Hwy 133 that heads to Blair so this was maybe about 12-15 miles away. At my house we were under the anvil of the storms with even a bit of mamatus clouds. Had a brief shower and some thunder too but that was it.

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Gary Lezak and the LRC. Can’t post tough questions on his blog or you get deleted. All of August he discussed and forecasted a wet and cool September in KC, we’re currently over 5 degrees above average and climbing and have been very dry since August 30th. His 12 week forecasts were way off for Sept. and today he came on and said that his LRC model forecasted a warm Sept. LOL

 

The poor guy can’t accept a miss forecast. They’re gonna happen. His forecast is based off a 49 day cycle. We’re in the 7th cycle, 49 days ago when our heat stretch started this month is when KC has its hottest stretch of the year. Following that, we had 2 weeks of below average temps(which was nicely forecasted by Tom to close out July) so, 49 days later, we’re in a well above average pattern and quite dry which has made many bloggers question...”what happened to the cycling pattern”

 

So, Tom, when will KC catch a break as this heat and humidity is no fun in Sept. very bad for seed and sod season. GFS shows changes by this weekend, right around the first day of Fall. Let’s hope so!

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Gary Lezak and the LRC. Can’t post tough questions on his blog or you get deleted. All of August he discussed and forecasted a wet and cool September in KC, we’re currently over 5 degrees above average and climbing and have been very dry since August 30th. His 12 week forecasts were way off for Sept. and today he came on and said that his LRC model forecasted a warm Sept. LOL

 

The poor guy can’t accept a miss forecast. They’re gonna happen. His forecast is based off a 49 day cycle. We’re in the 7th cycle, 49 days ago when our heat stretch started this month is when KC has its hottest stretch of the year. Following that, we had 2 weeks of below average temps(which was nicely forecasted by Tom to close out July) so, 49 days later, we’re in a well above average pattern and quite dry which has made many bloggers question...”what happened to the cycling pattern”

 

So, Tom, when will KC catch a break as this heat and humidity is no fun in Sept. very bad for seed and sod season. GFS shows changes by this weekend, right around the first day of Fall. Let’s hope so!

One thing you have to learn to accept on these forums is that come August, you will only hear of the “cold” that’s coming (even if it means seasonal cool weather). Show me once on either this forum or any other where any autumn or winter outlooks by the majority calls for above normal temps and below normal precip. Usually the call for end of summer comes around the last week of July first week of August; how has that worked out the last few years? Wasn’t too long ago Chicago cancelled an October marathon/race because the temps were too warm.

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Gary Lezak and the LRC. Can’t post tough questions on his blog or you get deleted. All of August he discussed and forecasted a wet and cool September in KC, we’re currently over 5 degrees above average and climbing and have been very dry since August 30th. His 12 week forecasts were way off for Sept. and today he came on and said that his LRC model forecasted a warm Sept. LOL

 

The poor guy can’t accept a miss forecast. They’re gonna happen. His forecast is based off a 49 day cycle. We’re in the 7th cycle, 49 days ago when our heat stretch started this month is when KC has its hottest stretch of the year. Following that, we had 2 weeks of below average temps(which was nicely forecasted by Tom to close out July) so, 49 days later, we’re in a well above average pattern and quite dry which has made many bloggers question...”what happened to the cycling pattern”

 

So, Tom, when will KC catch a break as this heat and humidity is no fun in Sept. very bad for seed and sod season. GFS shows changes by this weekend, right around the first day of Fall. Let’s hope so!

I tend to use other LR forecasting tools other than the LRC once we get into August and Sept.  I find it much more difficult to use the LRC tool given the weakness of the jet stream and overall summer pattern.  As for your area, I don't see any real Big changes just yet as the "resilient ridge" in the south will continue this month.  I am banking on the models to trend cooler post 21st to close out Sept and was expecting a surge of warmth prior to the 21st out ahead of the system that is tracking way NW of all of us later this week.  Certainly wasn't expecting this much warmth but its going to happen.  

 

My Autumn thoughts have been for a cooler start, which happened this month for the first 7-10 days for our northern Sub, but now the very warm temps will overcome negate any negative departures.  However, I do anticipate cooling the following week.  Typical "yoyo" Autumn weather except for the Plains states that have been stuck in the heat/humidity.

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One thing you have to learn to accept on these forums is that come August, you will only hear of the “cold” that’s coming (even if it means seasonal cool weather). Show me once on either this forum or any other where any autumn or winter outlooks by the majority calls for above normal temps and below normal precip. Usually the call for end of summer comes around the last week of July first week of August; how has that worked out the last few years? Wasn’t too long ago Chicago cancelled an October marathon/race because the temps were too warm.

Not sure if you saw the other thread we have but my thoughts on this was for a cool/cold start to Autumn (Sept/Oct) and warm finish for Nov...Indian Summer?  We'll see how that turns out.

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Not sure if you saw the other thread we have but my thoughts on this was for a cool/cold start to Autumn (Sept/Oct) and warm finish for Nov...Indian Summer? We'll see how that turns out.

Yep, and that wasn’t directed at you or any other individual but rather at weather forums collectively. We’ve had plenty of warm Septembers, but i don’t recall any feeling as tropical as this one with the high DPs and humidity.

 

I’m curious to see when our area and the MW as a whole finishes with a record warm winter and be able to go back and see all the various outlooks. I only have a small history on the weather boards, but have never seen a general consensus and agreement for a warm and dry winter outlook.

 

I was more making a point that you have to accept that there is inherent bias towards cold and snowy on these forums.

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Yep, and that wasn’t directed at you or any other individual but rather at weather forums collectively. We’ve had plenty of warm Septembers, but i don’t recall any feeling as tropical as this one with the high DPs and humidity.

 

I’m curious to see when our area and the MW as a whole finishes with a record warm winter and be able to go back and see all the various outlooks. I only have a small history on the weather boards, but have never seen a general consensus and agreement for a warm and dry winter outlook.

 

I was more making a point that you have to accept that there is inherent bias towards cold and snowy on these forums.

I remember the ‘11/‘12 Winter was forecasted to be cold but turned out to be a blowtorch over nearly all of the CONUS and Alaska remained stuck in a pattern that produced record snow and cold from Oct-April. Models missed on the GOA Low which pumped a massive ridge into the US. I wasn’t on any forums back then so can’t pull anything up.

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I tend to use other LR forecasting tools other than the LRC once we get into August and Sept.  I find it much more difficult to use the LRC tool given the weakness of the jet stream and overall summer pattern.  As for your area, I don't see any real Big changes just yet as the "resilient ridge" in the south will continue this month.  I am banking on the models to trend cooler post 21st to close out Sept and was expecting a surge of warmth prior to the 21st out ahead of the system that is tracking way NW of all of us later this week.  Certainly wasn't expecting this much warmth but its going to happen.  

 

My Autumn thoughts have been for a cooler start, which happened this month for the first 7-10 days for our northern Sub, but now the very warm temps will overcome negate any negative departures.  However, I do anticipate cooling the following week.  Typical "yoyo" Autumn weather except for the Plains states that have been stuck in the heat/humidity.

 

I know we follow MET seasons, but in my life's experience, SMI's practical wx outcomes are more in line with the astrological calendar, thus I always count September as a summer month. It's also rarely (it seems) a cold month overall, tho we can and do get some cold days from time to time. Having said that, I did see a few scattered trees with color on my drive across the countryside yesterday. #itscoming 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Yep, and that wasn’t directed at you or any other individual but rather at weather forums collectively. We’ve had plenty of warm Septembers, but i don’t recall any feeling as tropical as this one with the high DPs and humidity.

 

I’m curious to see when our area and the MW as a whole finishes with a record warm winter and be able to go back and see all the various outlooks. I only have a small history on the weather boards, but have never seen a general consensus and agreement for a warm and dry winter outlook.

 

I was more making a point that you have to accept that there is inherent bias towards cold and snowy on these forums.

It's taken me a few years, but I hope I've come more to the center of my biases. I can't make this month cool no matter how it started off. It's becoming increasingly clear that my "target" of a major cool off in the 22nd range is bust and I don't really have much to contribute outside of that.

 

I've posted in our Autumn thread (basically) that what looked like sure things have changed drastically. ENSO profile basically tanked in 2 weeks time. The ridge over the central CONUS and west central TX hasn't budged and I hate that as well.

 

The main winter I got wrong that I should have gotten right but couldn't shake my biases on and made me look stupid was 2015-16. I had no real reason to go cold on that one. Super Nino+pdo+qbo was all stacked for warm but I just couldn't shake it. It made me learn stuff. I never minded criticism at all, but the lack of "why it won't be what you said it was" counter-arguments before it happens troubles me. Discussion helps me learn. Not just armchair quarterbacking after the play and saying "well, if you'd have saw -blank-, you'd have been right." Or "he's got a cold bias...yadda yadda.."

 

I hope you don't take this post abrasively but I do value a counterpoint/alternative view, but before, not after. Not as a critic, but as a contributor. "I don't think that will verify on 'x' day, this is why." Or "I don't agree that 'x' month will be cold and snowy, here is why." These are good examples. I do encourage them. I think everyone who values a solid discussion in this hobby does.

 

I admittedly haven't studied warm events that much until after 2016. It was my weak point. Still is. I value insight there that is not driven by agenda and I welcome it.

 

I'm honestly split this winter 50/50. Based on SSt alone, it's a repeat of 2017 in the making. That's a warm winter for everyone southeast of Wichita, KS.

 

I'm a true winter weather enthusiast. Sue me, I guess. :lol: I will be til I die, or move north. I can't help it.

No hard feelings at all. Really.

 

And yes, 5th warm September in a row. Terrible. Horrible.

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DMX a bit humorous regarding the models for next week:

Beyond Sunday night, models are clueless ranging from a weak

ridge with shortwaves riding across Iowa with varying intensities to

another deep low dropping out of Canada. Just left the model blends

in for that period since there is no consensus whatsoever.

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Its a gorgeous evening outside under a mostly clear sky and a temp of 64F.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Looks like just in time when "Autumnal Equinox" arrives, that's when it starts getting much cooler.

 

 

Its a gorgeous evening outside under a mostly clear sky and a temp of 64F.

 

Can vouch. Just got home from enjoying a pool-side bonfire at my bro's place in SEMI. Coulda stayed up all night 'cept for work alarm in the morning 

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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I remember the ‘11/‘12 Winter was forecasted to be cold but turned out to be a blowtorch over nearly all of the CONUS and Alaska remained stuck in a pattern that produced record snow and cold from Oct-April. Models missed on the GOA Low which pumped a massive ridge into the US. I wasn’t on any forums back then so can’t pull anything up.

 

Oh for sure! 11-12 was going to be the Mother of all wicked winters! After (4) above avg snowy winters in a row (a Chicagoland first), we should've known how that'd work out. And honestly, just based on that fact alone (stretching our luck too far) I really felt uneasy with all the hype. Same thing way back with 82-83. After the brutal prior winter, they called for an even more severe winter. I called that the "hind-casting" era. Thinking that what happened before was some kind of trend or something. 

 

As for winters being forecast warm-n-dry, as Okwx says, I think 15-16 Super-Nino was the last one expected to be such. That was a FAIL as it went on to be a fairly snowy and at times cold season. But, not to be denied, the following winter that was supposed to be a healthy flip to Nina ended up acting like the Nino we didn't get. Gotta keep us guessing I guess..

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Winter 2023-24 Snow Total = 52.8" (89% Normal Season)  Largest Storm: 12" (1/12-13)   Oct: 0.1 Nov: 2.9 Dec: 7.5 Jan: 31.7 Feb: 6.0 Mar: 4.1 Apr: 0.0

Avg = 59.2"  (Harrison): 2023-24 = xx.x" 

Avg = 45.0"  (KDTW): 2022-23 = 33.5"   2021-22 = 35.6"    

Avg = 49.7"  (KRMY): 2020-21 = 36.2"   2019-20 = 48.0"   2018-19 = 56.1"   2017-18 = 68.3"    2016-17 = 52"    2015-16 = 57.4"    2014-15 = 55.3"    2013-14 = 100.6" (coldest & snowiest in the modern record!)  2012-13 = 47.2"    2011-12 = 43.7"

Legit Blizzards (high winds and dbl digit snows): Feb 2011, Dec 2009, Jan 2005, Dec 2000, Jan 1999, Mar 1998, Nov 1989, Jan 1982, Jan 1978, Jan 1977, Apr 1975, Mar 1973, Jan 1967, Feb 1965, Jan 1918

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Rise and Shine!  Today is the last time the sun will set before 7:00pm (6:58pm) till March 17th, 2020!  The darkness is getting much more noticeable and I'm sure all of you are feeling the same way.  

 

First snows of the season fell in Lake Tahoe the other day...

 

https://www.sacbee.com/news/weather-news/article235155302.html

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After some morning fog, sunshine is breaking through now. Temps are at 64F. Skies have a hazy look to it. Highs today will manage to be in the 70s w warmer air arriving starting late week. Temps by then will be topping near 80F or betta.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Can vouch. Just got home from enjoying a pool-side bonfire at my bro's place in SEMI. Coulda stayed up all night 'cept for work alarm in the morning 

 

Awesome......no grill to go w that?! :blink:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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I did notice one thing about the cooldown towards next week. It keeps getting more and more warmer as days past. My 60s for highs are now almost gone and are being replaced by near 70 or higher. :huh:

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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Humberto is expected to become a major Hurricane. Luckily moving away from the US mainland. Humberto is likely to pass near or north of Bermuda Wednesday night, where a tropical storm warning is posted.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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 The H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 80/62. The overnight low here at my house was 59 and at GRR is looks like it will be 58.  For today the average H/L at Grand Rapids is 73/52. The record high is 92 set in 1906 and the record low is 37 set in 1959. The warmest minimum is 69 set in 1942 and the record coldest maximum is 47 set in 1973. Last year the H/L was a hot 90/62 that 90° high last year was the 3rd highest for September 17th at GRR with just the record of 92 in 1906 and 91 in 1955 being warmer. BTW if it makes it into the mid 80’s on Friday it would be a top 15 for that date we shall see.

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IMG_3912.GIF

 

Texas is seeing a strong low move inland over Houston and further into the state.

This is always a good sign for us that the heat is over.

Arizona gets their Monsoons, we get Tropical Lows or Hurricanes.

 

This is great news for us.

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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 The H/L at Grand Rapids yesterday was 80/62. The overnight low here at my house was 59 and at GRR is looks like it will be 58.  For today the average H/L at Grand Rapids is 73/52. The record high is 92 set in 1906 and the record low is 37 set in 1959. The warmest minimum is 69 set in 1942 and the record coldest maximum is 47 set in 1973. Last year the H/L was a hot 90/62 that 90° high last year was the 3rd highest for September 17th at GRR with just the record of 92 in 1906 and 91 in 1955 being warmer. BTW if it makes it into the mid 80’s on Friday it would be a top 15 for that date we shall see.

Some colors are showing here as well, but very sporadic.

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This tropical system is showing signs of circulation, which raises concern considering we’re at the height of hurricane season and the Gulf water is very warm. While it’s not expected to persist long enough over open water to become a hurricane, it is certain to deposit a great deal of water in southeast Texas as it moves inland.

 

Flood Watches have been posted and some locations could see as much as 6 to 8 inches of rain in the Houston and Galveston areas.

....NBC

 

We will see .50” rain in DFW. Up to 5” in East Texas on Thurs/Fri

Finally, Some rain !!

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Before You Diagnose Yourself With Depression or Low Self-Esteem,...First Make Sure You Are Not In Fact, Just Surrounded By A$$holes.

“If I owned Texas and Hell, I would rent out Texas and live in Hell.”  Gen. Sheridan 1866

2018 Rainfall - 62.65" High Temp. - 110.03* Low Temp. - 8.4*

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Gorgeous early afternoon w brilliant sunshine and temps in the 70s. Early fog has dissipated, thankfully.

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Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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This tropical system is showing signs of circulation, which raises concern considering we’re at the height of hurricane season and the Gulf water is very warm. While it’s not expected to persist long enough over open water to become a hurricane, it is certain to deposit a great deal of water in southeast Texas as it moves inland.

 

Flood Watches have been posted and some locations could see as much as 6 to 8 inches of rain in the Houston and Galveston areas.

....NBC

 

We will see .50” rain in DFW. Up to 5” in East Texas on Thurs/Fri

Finally, Some rain !!

It just became tropical depression 11. Forecast to strengthen to a tropical storm with winds of 40mph. Looks to be a big rain maker in southeast Texas. 

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Temp currently at 73F under mostly sunny skies. No dew to speak of. :D

Snowfall for Winter 2023 -24 for Metro Detroit Area 

Oct 2023: 0.2" AN

Nov 2023: 2.2" AN

Dec 2023: 0.5" BN Insane!

Jan 2024: 17.0" AN

Feb 2024: 1.9"  BN

Mar 2024: 4.9" BN

April 2024:

Season So Far: 26.7"

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